First, I do honestly appreciate you gathering statistics - I think this analysis does have some merit, and those numbers tell a story.
But why 23? That's an odd number to me. Why not 20 or 25 or 50? I'm not saying you can't use 23 ('round' numbers aren't inherently better), but I think it should be justified in order to be most objective/"fair"/accurate.
(It's okay to even just call out that it's when they started playing like crap - I don't actually know - I'm just interested).
23 games ago was the start of their 7 game losing streak, which started April 17th.
The game before, they beat the Leafs 5-2 in Toronto, moving within 3 points of 1st place in the division. Connors and Ehlers had 2 goals each, both scoring their 20th of the year (in the 44th game), Scheifele had 3 points, and Hellebuyck stopped 31 of 33 (the Jets were outshot 33-24 in the win). That was the last game of a 5 game road trip, and the busiest part of their schedule (3 in 4 nights, and 5 in 8). They were about to start a 5 game home stand, have a 5 day break between games, and finish the year with 9 of the last 12 at home. They hadn’t been playing especially well, but they were 9-4 since the trade deadline and looked poised to overtake the Leafs and face the easier (we thought) matchup in round 1, the Habs or maybe the Flames.
Instead, they just wilted, losing all 5 games at home without hardly putting up a fight: 3-0 to Edmonton, then 5-3 and 4-1 to the Leafs, then 6-1 and 3-1 to Edmonton again.
They’ve been bad ever since. 3 meaningless wins over sad sack teams once the regular season was essentially over (including the 2 shutout blowouts), then 4 close fought wins in the playoffs to knock off the Oilers (all effectively by one goal, the Jets had 2 late EN goals in the 4-1 win in the series opener). And otherwise loss after loss after loss.
Including tonight, when it was 5-3 with 5 minutes left, and 5-4 with Scheifele taking an uncontested shot on an empty net, and 5-5 with Lowry hitting Stanley in stride on a 2-on-1 in overtime.
They’re just bad right now. The team has no confidence in itself. Maurice seems to be out of ideas, if he ever had any. Their special teams are terrible and they’re being outplayed 5-on-5. Hellebuyck is struggling, and has had some bad bounces. And now they’ll be without their captain for 10 days, at least.
I don’t see much reason to be optimistic they’re about to turn things around. I do think they have enough talent to be a good team this year but they might need a hard reset to start playing to their potential. Which could mean a coaching change, as early as mid-November (if they’re still struggling 2 weeks after Wheeler comes back).
