I went with 97 to 101 points.
No crystal ball handy, but there’s the same dependency on Hellebuyck as the last 4-5 season. If he continues to play at a Vezina level, we’re comfortably in the playoffs, and maybe even flirting with 110ish points. If he regresses towards league average SV%, it’s going to be tough to crack 95 points and we’re on the outside looking in.
Downgrade at backup G creates even less margin for error.
I’m trying to think of other variables that may push the needle. Vilardi staying healthy would be huge. Maybe a breakout year from Perfetti? Heinola finally hitting his stride as a top 4 dman?
Overall with how this team is constructed, it keeps coming back to goaltending. Some teams can rise above middling goaltending; I don’t see any chance of that happening for the Jets this season.