Post-Game Talk: Jets get run over speed kills

[HannuJ]

The solution is always difficult as it requires a lot of nuance. There are multiple small things that need to happen, but there are some things that will be difficult to solve without new pieces or players just bouncing back to last year's level of performance.

1. three scoring lines will help and make team difficult to match up against
2. team will need the depth for that 3 scoring line set up; losing Armia (and 1/3 of a season of Stastny) hurts
3. Some players just need a bounce back... Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor, and Little are all posting two-way numbers even when adjusting for usage that would rank 2nd last on last years team
4. some of that is a chemistry effect (we use regression to adjust for quality of linemates but not chemistry)... that will mean a lot of shuffling of players
5. #FreePetan
6. etc. etc.

again, the real solution is more nuanced and more difficult than just hand waving and this list

don't fret. Petan will be freed....freed to get us our Lord and Saviour, Mark "Hands of" Stone

 

[HannuJ]

not sure why people knock Sawyer.
i find something appealing when i hear a grown man giggle while trying to grope his way around a hockey broadcast

 

[ERYX]

LOL I laugh that we see the same people pop into PGT's when we **** the bed and then disappear when we play well. It's particularly hilarious that this has been happening for years but they have not been dinged for trolling *shrugs*

Yeah I notice after each loss there are a group of posters who are here to proclaim that the Jets are garbage and will be bounced in the first round.

Yet some of that group also say that our record is only good because the West sucks this year ... well, we don't need to worry about playing anyone from the East until the SCF itself so maybe as bad as certain posters think the Jets are we'll be alright.

I guess I'll be accused of focusing too much on the standings, but I just can't get all outraged over each and every loss and call my team garbage when we're number 1 in the West with games in hand. I've been enjoying this season going into each game thinking we will more than likely win, and more often than not being right. Long gone are the days where we would cling to one goal leads and my heart would pound each time the other team touched the net because so often Pavelec let in a softy whenever they did.

I think Coach Maurice summed up this game well "we were all horse s*** tonight" from coaches to players. It happens. Seems like several players are sick. It's not an excuse but in an 82 game season EVERY team is going to have a few stinkers.

 

[HannuJ]

I think Coach Maurice summed up this game well "we were all horse s*** tonight" from coaches to players. It happens. Seems like several players are sick. It's not an excuse but in an 82 game season EVERY team is going to have a few stinkers.

other than a handful of games (with TBay being the only one that comes to mind), this year's Jets have not left me feeling cocky and confident. so, casting those shtinkers away, i'm still very cautious with this team and unsure how deep it can go in the playoffs. too many bad signs and bad habits for me to be comfortable

 

[Jet]

not sure why people knock Sawyer.
i find something appealing when i hear a grown man giggle while trying to grope his way around a hockey broadcast

He is the best color guy the Jets 2.0 have had. I will admit having Ferraro for 3 games in a row got me excited though.

 

[Jet]

have to admit sorta liked how armia was pushing laine around.

I miss him a bunch.

 

[Whileee]

The solution is always difficult as it requires a lot of nuance. There are multiple small things that need to happen, but there are some things that will be difficult to solve without new pieces or players just bouncing back to last year's level of performance.

1. three scoring lines will help and make team difficult to match up against
2. team will need the depth for that 3 scoring line set up; losing Armia (and 1/3 of a season of Stastny) hurts
3. Some players just need a bounce back... Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor, and Little are all posting two-way numbers even when adjusting for usage that would rank 2nd last on last years team
4. some of that is a chemistry effect (we use regression to adjust for quality of linemates but not chemistry)... that will mean a lot of shuffling of players
5. #FreePetan
6. etc. etc.

again, the real solution is more nuanced and more difficult than just hand waving and this list

I think Maurice over-estimates the Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler combination. As a top line, they are under water in terms of CF%, xGF% and PenD. Ehlers makes that line a strong positive. The main problem with Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler is that they are all very passive in their own zone.

I think that Little needs to play with better puck possession players - his best work is with Perreault.

I'd move Laine to a line with Copp for a bit.

Agree about Petan.

 

[Whileee]

have to admit sorta liked how armia was pushing laine around.

...hmmmm... I wonder how Armia would have handled Laine when he was 20 years old and a low-scoring AHLer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Remember when we were the pack of wolves?

 

[HannuJ]

Remember when we were the pack of wolves?

no, but i remember when we were Moose

 

[antiqueslivers]

...hmmmm... I wonder how Armia would have handled Laine when he was 20 years old and a low-scoring AHLer.

I wasn't looking to through shade on laine more happy to see the good natured competition between the two. Much rather have Laine challenged physically that way rather then speared at the end of perry's stick or what not. Also I'm part of the group that isn't worried about laine.

 

[Jets 31]

He is the best color guy the Jets 2.0 have had. I will admit having Ferraro for 3 games in a row got me excited though.

Ya but we lost 2 of those 3 games , it's all Ferraro's fault .

 

[AlphaLackey]

Which is weird, as it's been clear as day since the end of December that the teams been very mediocre, and at times just down right terrible, but some people just focus on standings.

Well, when people say that one bad game represents how they've played for 95% to 100% of the year, "the standings" become very relevant, because it's pretty much statistically impossible for a team for whom yesterday was their typical performance to have the record they have.

Of course, you're talking only the last 15 games or so, and yes, it's accurate to say that given their play, that the 18 out of 30 points that they've gotten does represent a few more than they've deserved.

How many fewer? Well, even if they were the worst team in the league, they could still expect about 10 points over a random 15 game stretch. And not only are they not the worst team in the league they are not even close to the worst team in the league.

Would they average 10 points over a random 15 game stretch if every game was like the Montreal game? Of course not. That's because the team has not played a 15 game stretch since January like they did last night. Last night was an unsustainably bad sample-size-of-one-game nightmare, where irrespective of how bad they played, everything also blew up in their face.

But that's where we get the problem, because it happens so goddamn always around here, where exaggeration and myopia turn a reasonable and defensible proposition (the Jets have not been at their best in 2019) into a ridiculous and demonstrably false proposition, and in turn pointing out how that claim is untrue (if not impossible to ever be true) gets interpreted as attacking the original reasonable and defensible proposition. It's motte-and-bailey madness run amok.

So no, it is not "obsession with the standings" to point out the statistical impossibility of having 18 points in 15 games if the Montreal game represented how they've played for the whole 15 game stretch. It's not "obsession with the standings" to point out that even the worst team in the league can expect an average of 10 points during that stretch, so the actual "power of luck" they've had represents a few points *at best*, and not all 18.

 

[GreatCanadien]

Hi all,
Been reading this forum since the Nylander contract talks. Have never felt like posting anything until now. I'll preface my response by stating that I am a die-hard Habs fan, and have been for over 40 years.

That being said, your Jets team is a great team. I read a lot of comments here that they are playing crappy hockey and still winning. That to me is a GOOD thing. I have no doubt that when the 2nd season starts your Jets will be there, and they will be very tough to beat. Habs and Jets headed into last nights game 7-2-1 in the last 10, with the Jets playing ok as of late and the Habs playing close to the top of their capability. The Habs have to play their absolute best to win hockey games. The Jets don't, but when they do watch out. You have an OUTSTANDING goaltender, sufficient D (not GREAT, but good), and much better than average offense. They'll figure it out, I have no doubt. They ran into a hungry team last night who played the best game I've seen them play in a couple of seasons. I don't think anyone would have beaten Montreal last night. But that's not a level that Montreal can sustain. They have awesome work ethic, great speed, coached very well, but are not as skilled as the top teams in the league. When your Jets turn the jets on they are a formidable opponent, and I expect them to do that come playoff time. They are SECOND in a tough Western conference while not playing their best hockey. There's a lot to be said for that, and a lot for other teams to be afraid of. The Jets let Montreal play Montreal's game last night. They weren't physical. I doubt Winnipeg would allow Montreal to play like that in a meaningful game. I would not look forward to my Habs having to contend with your Jets in the playoffs. Well, I would, but I wouldn't be too confident in my team surviving a 7 game series.

Enjoy your team folks. They're good! And they will play better when the playoffs come.

GC

 

[tbcwpg]

Well, when people say that one bad game represents how they've played for 95% to 100% of the year, "the standings" become very relevant, because it's pretty much statistically impossible for a team for whom yesterday was their typical performance to have the record they have.

Of course, you're talking only the last 15 games or so, and yes, it's accurate to say that given their play, that the 18 out of 30 points that they've gotten does represent a few more than they've deserved.

How many fewer? Well, even if they were the worst team in the league, they could still expect about 10 points over a random 15 game stretch. And not only are they not the worst team in the league they are not even close to the worst team in the league.

Would they average 10 points over a random 15 game stretch if every game was like the Montreal game? Of course not. That's because the team has not played a 15 game stretch since January like they did last night. Last night was an unsustainably bad sample-size-of-one-game nightmare, where irrespective of how bad they played, everything also blew up in their face.

But that's where we get the problem, because it happens so goddamn always around here, where exaggeration and myopia turn a reasonable and defensible proposition (the Jets have not been at their best in 2019) into a ridiculous and demonstrably false proposition, and in turn pointing out how that claim is untrue (if not impossible to ever be true) gets interpreted as attacking the original reasonable and defensible proposition. It's motte-and-bailey madness run amok.

So no, it is not "obsession with the standings" to point out the statistical impossibility of having 18 points in 15 games if the Montreal game represented how they've played for the whole 15 game stretch. It's not "obsession with the standings" to point out that even the worst team in the league can expect an average of 10 points during that stretch, so the actual "power of luck" they've had represents a few points *at best*, and not all 18.

The most recent game has always been the "real Jets" on here. Bad games have people wanting the third place overall team to be deadline sellers, good games have people pencilling in Stone and/or Duchene into the lineup.

It's never as good, or as bad, as this board makes it seem.

 

[TannedBum]

...hmmmm... I wonder how Armia would have handled Laine when he was 20 years old and a low-scoring AHLer.

Pretty much the same way. Armia didn't play fortnite all day every day when he was 20 yo.

 

[DashingDane]

Posted this in the Laine thread as well but curious to know which underlying numbers PoMo has been looking at. Anyone have a guess?

 

[sipowicz]

Stopped watching after period two, first time I've done that this season, if you're not skating, working hard and giving er' I ain't wasting my time watching that crap!

Schief, Wheeler and Connor on auto pilot

2nd line still totally inept

3rd line lack the skill to be effective anyway except in a shutdown role

4th line with a bit of spark, almost more talent than the third line!

Helly solid!

Keep playing Morrow over Niku Mo, try and get the team back to your natural .500 right!

 

[tntkid]

Stopped watching after period two, first time I've done that this season, if you're not skating, working hard and giving er' I ain't wasting my time watching that crap!

Schief, Wheeler and Connor on auto pilot

2nd line still totally inept

3rd line lack the skill to be effective anyway except in a shutdown role

4th line with a bit of spark, almost more talent than the third line!

Helly solid!

Keep playing Morrow over Niku Mo, try and get the team back to your natural .500 right!

Watching that 3rd period was pure torture as a Jets fan.

Even more frustrating than watching the Minnesota losses.

 

[AlphaLackey]

The most recent game has always been the "real Jets" on here. Bad games have people wanting the third place overall team to be deadline sellers, good games have people pencilling in Stone and/or Duchene into the lineup.

It's never as good, or as bad, as this board makes it seem.

Eh sometimes good games have people still saying the team is shit but you are bang on about the dangers of recency bias. Somewhere between the Anaheim game and the Montreal game lies the truth.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Remember when we were the pack of wolves?

Yup. So long gone, those times, and yet it seems like it wasn't even a week ago that we were thumping teams so thoroughly that the hockey world was buzzing about it.

 

[Duke749]

That 3rd period was bad. Real bad. When that top line gets lost defensively, it’s a miracle they can ever get it out. They’re a mess defensively. Connor can make some pretty bad reads at times.

 

[Duke749]

I think it's lots of talent but with mismatched pieces.

Generally very fast forwards, but too often a ponderous D (especially with Morrissey out).

Scheifele and Wheeler can be sublime, but they are really poor defensively so when they are "off" and are matched against top lines they get owned in the D zone too often. Connor is not a good fit with them, despite the beautiful offense they sometimes produce. Last night they had one gorgeous goal, and many awful shifts hemmed in their own zone, giving up 3 goals (or was it 4) and taking a dumb penalty (Connor).

I think the Jets' best line-up probably splits up Scheifele and Wheeler.

Oh, and Joe Morrow is a catastrophe for every D partner he plays with (except a short run with Buff last year). Very disappointing.

Quoting this because it needs to be said on every page.

 

[Duke749]

In the playoffs against a team with a lot of speed, we’d do well to dress Niku over. Chiarot. The backend has to be quick too. Having guys like Chia and Morrow is a recipe for disaster. Hope Maurice is flexible with that but we all know how much he loves some Chia.

 

[ffh]

Posted this in the Laine thread as well but curious to know which underlying numbers PoMo has been looking at. Anyone have a guess?

what McIntyre should have asked was well then why don't you just put laine wth 1 of scheifele or wheeler instead of both. might just fix the problems with both lines.