Post-Game Talk: Jets fall to the Knights 3 -1

[AlphaLackey]

The most disturbing thing in this round and the last is that a 1 goal deficit is seemingly insurmountable. Not a problem I expected us to have, to be honest.

If you started the game up 1-0, you'd have about a 70% chance to win. The Jets have surrendered the first goal 5 times this playoffs and have lost 4 of those 5 times.

Where's the part where the Jets are doing so much worse than expected when being scored on first? Especially when compared to the fact that they've scored first 9 times and won 8 of those times?

 

[GNP]

When Aavco returns--the Jet's will right the ship, and cruise to victory.

 

[Whileee]

Honestly, people need to get over Enstrom being the same player he was, he's not, but to think that Chiarot or Morrow is a better option baffles the **** out of me. News flash, Toby isn't the biggest guy in the world, that hasn't changed. While his offense has dried up, he is still far better at denying the zone, retrievals and exits than those other two, and Myers for that matter. Enstrom excels at breaking up plays before the blue line and reading the play in support. Buff and him have an excellent partnership in that each one reads the other very well and trusts they will be there for each other for reversals and puck support.

Even though he's slower, I still saw Enstrom outskate the forecheck 3-4 times last night. Chiarot simply can't do that, he's strong but his inabilty to be able to create space causes much havoc for the Jets.

I think Morrow is a better option than Chiarot, and I'm not sure Enstrom can handle big minutes.

I'd suggest:

Morrissey-Trouba
Morrow-Buff
Enstrom-Myers

 

[AlphaLackey]

A 1 goal lead in the 1st period of any game where the team trailing actually puts in the effort to come back.... should not be insurmountable, at least not every game.

It's not insurmountable. They've come back after being scored first 1 on 5 times when on average they'd have done it about 1.0 - 1.5 times, depending on when that first goal was scored.

In the Jets case it's either a statistical anomaly

A statistical anomaly that happened 14 times this season alone.

OR they just can't find a way / have not been taught how to find a way to come back.

OR in a situation where they have about a 30% chance of winning, they've won one out of five times.

JMO, but I think once the opposition gets up a goal on the Jets, they have such a high respect for the Jets offensive tools, they just button down and fully concentrate on defense.... and the Jets just can't get around it.

They already did once out of five times. That 3 goal comeback doesn't magically "not count" just because it would be convenient if it didn't count.

 

[GNP]

If you started the game up 1-0, you'd have about a 70% chance to win. The Jets have surrendered the first goal 5 times this playoffs and have lost 4 of those 5 times.

Where's the part where the Jets are doing so much worse than expected when being scored on first? Especially when compared to the fact that they've scored first 9 times and won 8 of those times?

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What does that say about a team when you have to score first to win ?? That's a very scary thought in my mind. A championship team should have more poise and character than that. They should be able to come from behind--especially if in 1st period.

 

[thegr8one66]

It's not insurmountable. They've come back after being scored first 1 on 5 times when on average they'd have done it about 1.0 - 1.5 times, depending on when that first goal was scored.

A statistical anomaly that happened 14 times this season alone.

OR in a situation where they have about a 30% chance of winning, they've won one out of five times.

They already did once out of five times. That 3 goal comeback doesn't magically "not count" just because it would be convenient if it didn't count.

Playoff hockey is way different than regular season hockey. The fact of the matter is if the Jets give up the first goal, we're losing the game. Yes, we came back from a 3-0 defiicit once. That won't happen in the 3rd or 4th round of the playoffs.

 

[cbcwpg]

They already did once out of five times. That 3 goal comeback doesn't magically "not count" just because it would be convenient if it didn't count.

And if they played Nashville 100 times where they were trailing 3-0 after the 1st , they would lose the other 99 games. Winning that game was a fluke, an anomaly... ask anyone... ask the players. Your relying on something that will not happen again in these playoffs as proof the Jets can win after not scoring first.

If the Jets don't score first there is a very high chance they lose. The upside is that if they score first there is a very good chance they win. But teams that win championships need to be better than that.

 

[GNP]

We have a $ 4.5 million dollar defenseman in Kulikov --may be a good time to put him in the lineup. Both Kulikov and Morrow can score, and we'll need that. I know there's a lot of Toby supporters here, but really he just cannot score --and we need that. His defensive game is still good, but we have better options -IMO.

 

[AlphaLackey]

And if they played Nashville 100 times where they were trailing 3-0 after the 1st , they would lose the other 99 games.

And if we played the other four games we went down by 1 early 100 times each, we'd have won each of them about 20-30 times. And overall, if we replayed all 5 games from the time when we went down 1 goal early, we'd win between 1.0 and 1.5 times per 5. So whence all the doom and gloom?

Winning that game was a fluke, an anomaly... ask anyone... ask the players. Your relying on something that will not happen again in these playoffs as proof the Jets can win after not scoring first.

I'm not "relying on anything". I'm not the one conveniently ignoring all data that doesn't support my claim.

If the Jets don't score first there is a very high chance they lose.

If any team doesn't score first there is a very high chance they lose. Starting the game up 1-0 would make you about 70% to win.

As it turns out, the Jets have come back from deficits almost exactly as much as they'd be expected to. So whence the doom and gloom?

 

[AlphaLackey]

Playoff hockey is way different than regular season hockey. The fact of the matter is if the Jets give up the first goal, we're losing the game.

Yes, if you ignore the time when we came back after being scored on first, then every time we're scored on first, we lose the game.

Yes, we came back from a 3-0 defiicit once. That won't happen in the 3rd or 4th round of the playoffs.

We've been scored on first 5 times, and won 1 of those games. This is almost exactly average. This isn't evidence of some magic deficiency the Jets have.

 

[GNP]

I think the reason I sense a lot of panic in these posts here--is because poster's can now see just how good this Vegas team is. They shut down the Kings 4-0 and how many teams can do that ??

I think after last night's game, the Jet's or anybody will not at all be taking this team lightly--which is good. We need a 100% effort to beat them-- "no rest games."

 

[Gotaf7]

We have a $ 4.5 million dollar defenseman in Kulikov --may be a good time to put him in the lineup. Both Kulikov and Morrow can score, and we'll need that. I know there's a lot of Toby supporters here, but really he just cannot score --and we need that. His defensive game is still good, but we have better options -IMO.

Joe Morrow has scored one f***ing goal FFS and Kulikov is injured! This chicken little sky is falling bullshit is getting old.

 

[Ducky10]

I think Morrow is a better option than Chiarot, and I'm not sure Enstrom can handle big minutes.

I'd suggest:

Morrissey-Trouba
Morrow-Buff
Enstrom-Myers

I'd put Morrow in over Chiarot as well. The only reasons I'd move Enstrom to the bottom pairing is to give Myers some help moving the puck and to keep Morrow/Myers away from each other.

 

[AlphaLackey]

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What does that say about a team when you have to score first to win ?? That's a very scary thought in my mind. A championship team should have more poise and character than that. They should be able to come from behind--especially if in 1st period.

They don't have to score first to win. They have almost exactly an average number of comebacks this playoffs, and other teams have had a much lower than average chance of coming back when being scored on first. "when up 1 / when down 1" has been very much in the Jets favor this season and again in the playoffs.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

When Aavco returns--the Jet's will right the ship, and cruise to victory.

What happened to Aavco?

 

[thegr8one66]

And if we played the other four games we went down by 1 early, we'd have won each of them about 30 times.

I'm not "relying on anything". I'm not the one conveniently ignoring all data that doesn't support my claim.

If any team doesn't score first there is a very high chance they lose. Starting the game up 1-0 would make you about 70% to win.

As it turns out, the Jets have come back from deficits almost exactly as much as they'd be expected to. So whence the doom and gloom?

I think you're not understanding what cbcwpg is saying. He's saying that going forward if the other team scores first, we lose. If you wanna spout your stat about us being 1-4 when down as being the measuring stick in the playoffs, that's fine, but it doesn't reflect what Jets have really shown. Let's take out that 3-0 fluke comeback, as well as one of the 4 losses. Now, we're 0 wins and 3 losses. Which means there's a 0% chance we win when giving up first goal.

 

[blues10]

Some of the hot takes in this thread

Enstrom out for Morrow
Roslo in for Tanev or LAINE?

Goodness.

The Jets played just fine for most of this game. The players in the lineup are the right players. They just need to keep focus. They allowed Vegas in this game and series, they can overpower them again.

Thanks for bringing some sanity to the boards.

The playoffs are a learning lesson and the Jets are learning on the fly.

 

[GNP]

Joe Morrow has scored one ****ing goal FFS and Kulikov is injured! This chicken little sky is falling bull**** is getting old.

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We shall see Gotaf ??--I only wish I could be as cocky and confident as you are. I just did not like what I saw last night. I see trouble on the horizon, and another series like the one we had with the Preds.

 

[GNP]

What happened to Aavco ?

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We are all wondering the same thing ?? I hope he didn't have a serious medical issue ? but I think he needed a rest from these boards. Hope he'll be back soon.

 

[pucka lucka]

When Aavco returns--the Jet's will right the ship, and cruise to victory.

Maybe you can put together a posse and start a search. Jesus.

 

[YoyiBear]

I'd let the coach coach the team and make the decisions. Unlike some posters I know he's better qualified to coach an nhl team than I am. I do think teams will have bad games and good games. As long as the jets have more good games they'll win the series. And that's the extent of my analysis. Just enjoying the ride.

 

[GNP]

Maybe you can put together a posse and start a search. Jesus.

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Good idea --I'll get right on it Pucka

 

[pucka lucka]

I think the reason I sense a lot of panic in these posts here--is because poster's can now see just how good this Vegas team is. They shut down the Kings 4-0 and how many teams can do that ??

I think after last night's game, the Jet's or anybody will not at all be taking this team lightly--which is good. We need a 100% effort to beat them-- "no rest games."

Nobody can beat these VGK juggernaut. Take your meds. Their best dman is Nate Schmidt and their goalie is riding a .950. Their top goal scorer had never scored more than 20 in a season going back to his 15 year old season. Marchesseault is legit.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I think you're not understanding what cbcwpg is saying.

I understand what he's saying.

He's saying that going forward if the other team scores first, we lose.

And he's wrong.

If you wanna spout your stat about us being 1-4 when down as being the measuring stick in the playoffs, that's fine, but it doesn't reflect what Jets have really shown.

"spouting a stat"? Oh man. Is that what we're going to call it when someone counts to five correctly?

Let's take out that 3-0 fluke comeback, as well as one of the 4 losses. Now, we're 0 wins and 3 losses. Which means there's a 0% chance we win when giving up first goal.

That's not how any of this works. Not the least of which is that it is not a comparable amount of variance on either side. Like, obsessing about a sample size of five is ridiculous enough, but "sample size of five" plus ".. and I'll just remove whatever samples don't please me" is even crazier.



FACT: If the Jets are scored on first in the playoffs, they have a significantly higher than 0% chance to win the game.

FACT: when the Jets have been scored on first in this playoffs, they have won ALMOST EXACTLY AS OFTEN as statistically expected.

FACT: the 'plus luck' that the Jets enjoyed in winning that game they were scored on first is almost exactly identical to the sum of all the 'minus luck' that the Jets suffered in not winning those other four games they were scored on first. Do you know how we can tell that? Because the Jets were almost exactly on average for "measured comebacks versus expected comebacks" during that five game sample. If measured equals expected, the net sum of luck is zero.

FACT: Even if the Jets DID have a 0% chance of winning when being scored on first in this playoffs, their winning rate when THEY score first has been so high that, if maintained throughout a year, would make them a certain President's Trophy winner and the clear cut playoff favorite.

... this last one is really the biggest of them all -- even taking this flawed line of reasoning at face value, it still would have us as a championship caliber team.

 

[Eyeseeing]

What's way more important & overlooked I.M.O.
"what goes on at Scott Oake's hot tub parties "