Post-Game Talk: Jets eat plenty on Tuesday Wings night. Jets win 5-1.

[Halberdier]

Whoa whoa whoa WHOA!

I thought you guys hate +/- and when I look at GF%, you’re not tricking me into thinking that’s notably different.

Me? You are confusing.

I love 5-on-5 goal differential. Always have been.

And yes, it's totally different than +/-. Plus minus is plagued with PP (you get only minuses playing PP) and PK (you get only plus playing PK). Also empty net situations, for and against further render regular +/- less and less usable.

5-on-5 goal differential is fair and square. Obviously you need large sample sizes as goals are rare.

But in case of those 3 5-on-5 gDiff leaders for the Jets, that does very well match my eye test this season, whatever it is worth.

 

[Gm0ney]

I am fine with the argument that GF% is better than +/-. You’re right in that aspect.

But where does GF% reflect offensive: defensive zone starts and how the line is deployed against opposition lines? You think these are trivial factors?

To use that stat, and only that stat, to compare Roslovic to Wheeler is just silly.

Maybe you're looking for an adjusted plus/minus? Maybe a regularized adjusted plus/minus - a RAPM, if you will...?

Evolving-Hockey.com's RAPM looks at 5 target variables: GF/60, xGF/60, CF/60, xGA/60, CA/60. For every player, for every even-strength shift that they're on the ice, all of those variables are adjusted by: teammates on the ice, opposition skaters on the ice, the current game score, strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3), OZ start, DZ start, whether the game is the 2nd of a back-to-back, and whether it's a home or away game.

Here's Wheeler vs. Roslovic this year so far:

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Laine has scored a lot of great games.
Laine has some great dangles.

Rarely do those two things come together.
Last night was the beautiful union of both!

 

[jepjepjoo]

GF% is what +/- should have been, but isn’t because the formula for it is stupid. GF% isn’t a perfect stat either, it suffers from sample size issues but unlike +/- it’s still a useful stat. +/- was developed as an old school motivational tool so it was deliberately slanted to make the "grinders" look better an put more pressure on star players by making them look worse than they really are. Some of the problems with +/-

+/- punishes players who play on the power play
+/- punishes players who get put on the ice when you pull the goaltender because you are down a goal
+/- rewards players for being used on the PK
+/- rewards players for being on the ice when you have a lead and the other team pulls their goaltender
On good teams +/- rewards players who get lots of ice time and punishes those who do not
On bad teams +/- punishes players who get lots of ice time and rewards players who do not.

I am fine with the argument that GF% is better than +/-. You’re right in that aspect.

But where does GF% reflect offensive: defensive zone starts and how the line is deployed against opposition lines? You think these are trivial factors?

To use that stat, and only that stat, to compare Roslovic to Wheeler is just silly.

GF% alone doesn't tell you much... You need both GF/GA 5on5

player A 82gp 15GF 5GA 75GF%
Player B 82gp 60GF 25GA 70GF%

Who helped the team win more?

 

[Guffman]

GF% alone doesn't tell you much... You need both GF/GA 5on5

player A 82gp 15GF 5GA 75GF%
Player B 82gp 60GF 25GA 70GF%

Who helped the team win more?

Player B as he had a +35 goal differential compared to Player A's +10 goal differential. If Player A had more TOI and played more high event hockey, will his 75% GF% hold? I doubt it.

Sbisa has a higher GF% than Morrissey, so that right there should question the validity of that stat.

Hey, I am a big goal differential guy but this is just a lazy way to judge the relative worth of players (as are many advanced stats).

 

[Jets 31]

Who's to say Perreault in Roslo's spot wouldn't be doing the same thing, plus Frenchie has proven in his career that he can score, until Roslo develops a scoring touch he will always be thought of as bottom six!

Incoming multi point by Roslovic , the Sip has spoken .

 

[Gm0ney]

Player B as he had a +35 goal differential compared to Player A's +10 goal differential. If Player A had more TOI and played more high event hockey, will his 75% GF% hold? I doubt it.

Sbisa has a higher GF% than Morrissey, so that right there should question the validity of that stat.

Hey, I am a big goal differential guy but this is just a lazy way to judge the relative worth of players (as are many advanced stats).

5v5 GF/GA doesn't need to be converted to a ratio to be of use. As you point out, GF% can be misleading. But GF+/- is a better/more fair description of what's happened when a player is out there at 5v5. It's a straightforward way to correct some of the flaws of traditional +/-. It's not perfect, but no stat is...

See my earlier message about RAPM if you're still wondering about capturing more of the situational nuances to provide an even better picture.

 

[Jets 31]

I like when we out scorsie the other team .

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I missed the game completely, but extended highlights were very fun to watch.

I expected Jets to be 6-in-5 (a.k.a. playoffs team) despite losing D corps in summer as they have so much talent to actually suck, but now they are 3 points ahead the schedule, which is huge. Hats of.

Do my eyes deceive me? Are Jets 6th in the league by points, despite being 13th in games played? This cannot be!

Three Central Div teams in the top 6 and another only 1 pt back. The Central is still tough. Chicago is last in the Div and has more pts than any other last place team. The Central is the only 7 team division but Chicago also has more pts than any other 7th place team except Ana which has the same pts in the same # of games. Point being, there are no weak sisters to pile up points against.

 

[Tommigun]

Probably the easiest game of the season, and the Jets put on a clinic after the Red Wings blew their load in the first five minutes.

Beaulieu REALLY wanted to fight tonight.

Laine’s hand must be injured as he refuses to blast it even on the PP. He’s not playing his normal spot and when Pionk has the puck he does not put himself in a position to one time it, and if he gets it he doesn’t one-time it.

Wheeler and Scheifele had some great lazers, it’s always a treat to watch.

On to the next one.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yes, but conceptually, that is not why many people dismiss +/-.

Uhhhh, yeah it pretty much is.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Fun, if sad, game. Just wanted to note some good play from Beaulieu, including a -- wait for it -- deceptive TIGHT TURN that completely wrong-footed a Wings forechecker and set up a nice chance in the O-zone. Starting to remind me a bit of Chia when he started busting out with the skillz a bit as his confidence rose (and his icings plateau'd).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm big enough to make the NHL myself. I'm a little over 6': both vertically and horizontally

That horizontal 'height' should make you just about unbeatable in goal.

 

[Halberdier]

GF% alone doesn't tell you much... You need both GF/GA 5on5

player A 82gp 15GF 5GA 75GF%
Player B 82gp 60GF 25GA 70GF%

Who helped the team win more?

Yup, gDiff would be best stat, but as Natural Stat Trick does not have that field, I had to go with GF%, which is not a bad stat either when sample sizes are similar enough.

 

[Halberdier]

Player B as he had a +35 goal differential compared to Player A's +10 goal differential. If Player A had more TOI and played more high event hockey, will his 75% GF% hold? I doubt it.

Sbisa has a higher GF% than Morrissey, so that right there should question the validity of that stat.

Hey, I am a big goal differential guy but this is just a lazy way to judge the relative worth of players (as are many advanced stats).

Player A and B can have equal TOI, similar deployment, and still other is let's say +30 -15 while another has +60 -40. If so, I would guess just by looking this stat alone, that maybe that low-event guy is great at defending and maybe that other guy is more like McDavid: amazing offensively, risky and lazy defensively.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

That horizontal 'height' should make you just about unbeatable in goal.

Yep. Jets should hire me and give me the Milhouse treatment.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Player B as he had a +35 goal differential compared to Player A's +10 goal differential. If Player A had more TOI and played more high event hockey, will his 75% GF% hold? I doubt it.

[Grade] A+ [/Grade]

 

[jefferoni]

@The Blue Baron

I just saw your post in yesterday's GDT (I didn't participate in the GDT because I went to the game)...

Hey Jeffi thanks for the GDT BUT it is Wings at Jets tonight then the this thread title Thursday.

you are still a grand master though!

GJG

Nope, the convention is to always list the Jets first and use "vs" for home games and "@" for away games.

See the official schedule for proof:
Winnipeg Jets Schedule

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

@The Blue Baron

I just saw your post in yesterday's GDT (I didn't participate in the GDT because I went to the game)...

Nope, the convention is to always list the Jets first and use "vs" for home games and "@" for away games.

See the official schedule for proof:
Winnipeg Jets Schedule

Uniformity
Conventionality
Is the bane of our existence
Keep it safely at a distance
Nonconformity
Unconventionality
Is too good to be
Let your hair down
Can't you see

Let it go
Let it go
Let it free your body
Let it move your soul

 

[Guffman]

See my earlier message about RAPM if you're still wondering about capturing more of the situational nuances to provide an even better picture.

I've been a big proponent of goal differential as at the team level, that has a very high correlation to your positioning in the standings. I'll check out your message and bug you with any questions.

YES, the return of an improved +/-!!

 

[Duke749]

Player B as he had a +35 goal differential compared to Player A's +10 goal differential. If Player A had more TOI and played more high event hockey, will his 75% GF% hold? I doubt it.

Sbisa has a higher GF% than Morrissey, so that right there should question the validity of that stat.

Hey, I am a big goal differential guy but this is just a lazy way to judge the relative worth of players (as are many advanced stats).

Wrong. Your first thought shouldn’t be “this stat sucks” it should be “ok but why?”. That way you can dig deeper to try and understand it. That way you have an understanding of how the information was gathered.

We all know Morrissey is far and away better. But it helps tell hit maybe Sbisa isn’t as bad as he seems OR maybe he is being put in a situation where he can succeed in some capacity.

No stat is the be all end all. People have stated that ten fold(even though it still falls on deft ears). But it can help you better understand what is happening on the ice. It’s a gathering of information.

 

[Guffman]

Wrong. Your first thought shouldn’t be “this stat sucks” it should be “ok but why?”. That way you can dig deeper to try and understand it. That way you have an understanding of how the information was gathered.

We all know Morrissey is far and away better. But it helps tell hit maybe Sbisa isn’t as bad as he seems OR maybe he is being put in a situation where he can succeed in some capacity.

That's the thing... we do have to dig deeper to understand why the results are the way they are. Morrissey's +/- rating was dinged considerably for the first part of the year. Defense/team trying to figure things out? His partner getting acclimatized? Sbisa comes in when the team has stabilized and so he gets to ride on the team streak. We can dig much deeper than that.

So, going back to what started this conversation, to pat Roslovic on the back because of a GF% over Wheeler is just silly. If you're going to make that argument, it needs to go way behind posting a GF%, doesn't it?

 

[Stumbledore]

No stat is the be all end all. People have stated that ten fold(even though it still falls on deft ears). But it can help you better understand what is happening on the ice. It’s a gathering of information.

Sometimes the cleverest lines are the inadvertent ones.....

 

[Jets 31]

I don't know if anyone heard this today , Detroit's plane had mechanical issues last night so they couldn't leave until this morning . Even their plane can't get off the ground , just like their season .

 

[kanadalainen]

Was that Laine? I saw that goal and thought... "Isn't Jean Beliveau dead? And if he's alive, how can he still move like that? And how did he get on the Jets? Go Le Gros Bill Go!"

Bravo. This is quoted for sheer gestalt.