Jets Advanced Stats thread

[JetsFan815]

We are now 11 games into the season and can start having meaningful discussions about this.

Jets having much better advanced stats than the last couple of years. Looking like good team if you just look at Corsi, more mediocre if you look at xGoals. Still an improvement over the last couple of seasons when they were in an absolute toilet when it comes to these metrics.

Schedule has been relatively easy so far other than the Islanders/Wild games so nothing is set in stone but looks more positive than the last couple of seasons, atleast so far.

Click to read more...

 

[Guffman]

Jets always outscore xGoals (xGoals doesn’t actually factor shooter quality) and top Corsi teams often don’t make the playoffs.

But, I some like to dive into this and make inappropriate conclusions so have at it!

 

[Gil Fisher]

Jets always outscore xGoals (xGoals doesn’t actually factor shooter quality) and top Corsi teams often don’t make the playoffs.

But, I some like to dive into this and make inappropriate conclusions so have at it!

Yeah we always outperform xGF. As a quick indicator of how good we are, I'll take a look at our xGF% ranking and our GF% ranking and split the difference. Puts us solidly in the top 10 right now.

 

[Ducky10]

Jets always outscore xGoals (xGoals doesn’t actually factor shooter quality) and top Corsi teams often don’t make the playoffs.

But, I some like to dive into this and make inappropriate conclusions so have at it!

What was the inappropriate conclusion made? I didn’t see a conclusion on anything at all. Perhaps this thread could be a place to discuss these topics logically and rationally, rather than just mocking the subject matter and it’s posters.

 

[surixon]

What was the inappropriate conclusion made? I didn’t see a conclusion on anything at all. Perhaps this thread could be a place to discuss these topics logically and rationally, rather than just mocking the subject matter and it’s posters.

Agreed, we seem to have moved back onto the middle of the pack in terms of most shot metrics. That can't be taken as anything but a positive after being in the basement the last two years. There are still a number of areas to clean up in our play but having some additional play drivers playing really well like Dubois certainly helps us generate more chances.

Factor in some big rebound years from JoMo and Schmidt and we aren't bleeding chances nearly as much.

The big issue is that Mark and Blake are still being major drags in terms of loosing the scoring chances battle. Also in terms of style of play they stand out from the other two lines. They spend way too much time on the boards and waste too much time trying to open up the perfect play or a weak point shot. They need to up their game significantly as they don't fit well right now and Moe keeps overplaying them anyways.

 

[Ducky10]

Agreed, we seem to have moved back onto the middle of the pack in terms of most shot metrics. That can't be taken as anything but a positive after being in the basement the last two years. There are still a number of areas to clean up in our play but having some additional play drivers playing really well like Dubois certainly helps us generate more chances.

Factor in some big rebound years from JoMo and Schmidt and we aren't bleeding chances nearly as much.

The big issue is that Mark and Blake are still being major drags in terms of loosing the scoring chances battle. Also in terms of style of play they stand out from the other two lines. They spend way too much time on the boards and waste too much time trying to open up the perfect play or a weak point shot. They need to up their game significantly as they don't fit well right now and Moe keeps overplaying them anyways.

Yeah, both are big bodies and Scheifele is especially strong. I’d like to see them be a little more direct in their play, like PLD and Copp. Drive the lanes between the hash marks and get some chances in those areas. To your point though, tough to see the Jets going too far with 55 and 26 losing scoring chance battles, although 37 is the great equalizer. He’ll have to be. Right now, those two are representing the Jets secondary scoring, not their primary.

 

[Guffman]

What was the inappropriate conclusion made? I didn’t see a conclusion on anything at all. Perhaps this thread could be a place to discuss these topics logically and rationally, rather than just mocking the subject matter and it’s posters.

I’ve been here for a few years now and I have seen so many people misuse these “advanced” stats to draw unfounded conclusions. I remember when Corsi was the “in” statistic and people would be quoting it as gospel as to how well the team was playing and using it to project future results.

I think some people want to be viewed as hockey experts by trying to spreadsheet this game.

I am fine if people want to discuss these statistics but I hope it doesn’t spill onto other threads like the awful Corsi gospel of yesteryear. Yeesh!

 

[Ducky10]

I’ve been here for a few years now and I have seen so many people misuse these “advanced” stats to draw unfounded conclusions. I remember when Corsi was the “in” statistic and people would be quoting it as gospel as to how well the team was playing and using it to project future results.

I think some people want to be viewed as hockey experts by trying to spreadsheet this game.

I am fine if people want to discuss these statistics but I hope it doesn’t spill onto other threads like the awful Corsi gospel of yesteryear. Yeesh!

I think that’s your interpretation of what people are doing, and you’re generalizing. Regardless, the OP did not make any unfounded conclusions. If you don’t like the subject matter or the the thread, you don’t need to participate. If you have something of substance to say, that’s great. Not everybody has to agree on statistics. Dismissing them because you don’t agree with them is not what this thread is going to be about and won’t be tolerated.

 

[surixon]

Yeah, both are big bodies and Scheifele is especially strong. I’d like to see them be a little more direct in their play, like PLD and Copp. Drive the lanes between the hash marks and get some chances in those areas. To your point though, tough to see the Jets going too far with 55 and 26 losing scoring chance battles, although 37 is the great equalizer. He’ll have to be. Right now, those two are representing the Jets secondary scoring, not their primary.

Agreed if the Jets are to contend they need Schiefele to pick it up. I'm less concerned about Wheeler as imo he really isn't a primary offensive guy for us any longer. We have too many other talented players in or approaching their primes that are simply much better then him at this point. We just need our coach to more quickly catch on.

But I do agree with you that we need both Mark and Blake to play more direct hockey and go to the tough areas more. I think if they did that their underlying numbers would normalize and improve. Most of our other players are trending above 50% and its really only them and the second pairing that is lagging behind to date.

 

[Ducky10]

Agreed if the Jets are to contend they need Schiefele to pick it up. I'm less concerned about Wheeler as imo he really isn't a primary offensive guy for us any longer. We have too many other talented players in or approaching their primes that are simply much better then him at this point. We just need our coach to more quickly catch on.

But I do agree with you that we need both Mark and Blake to play more direct hockey and go to the tough areas more. I think if they did that their underlying numbers would normalize and improve. Most of our other players are trending above 50% and its really only them and the second pairing that is lagging behind to date.

Agree about Wheeler, the problem is his toi and Maurice using him as if he is still a primary scorer. I think Scheifele will pick it up and get his head above 50%, although I’m not convinced that happens with Wheeler. I don’t really know what to make of Pionk and Dillon. It seems like a pairing that should do quite well but for whatever reason they’re just not. Dillon is more of a net front guy and he struggles a bit when chasing guys around the zone. Conversely Pionk struggles down low and net front, which he’s forced to do more often when Dillon gets pulled up top by his man. Still, I think they can turn it around.

 

[surixon]

Agree about Wheeler, the problem is his toi and Maurice using him as if he is still a primary scorer. I think Scheifele will pick it up and get his head above 50%, although I’m not convinced that happens with Wheeler. I don’t really know what to make of Pionk and Dillon. It seems like a pairing that should do quite well but for whatever reason they’re just not. Dillon is more of a net front guy and he struggles a bit when chasing guys around the zone. Conversely Pionk struggles down low and net front, which he’s forced to do more often when Dillon gets pulled up top by his man. Still, I think they can turn it around.

Yeah Maurice has a bit of a blind spot on Wheeler. I get the loyalty thing and I get him wanting to get Blake going but I think it's more the coach being in denial at this point.

I think if you cut Blake's minutes down to 17 and play him against softer comp and he is more able to maintain his energy levels throughout a game and likely perform better.

Dubois is fully capable of winning tough matchups.

Ehlers/Copp/Schiefle could also handle tough matchups imo.

I'd try to build a soft scoring line around Stastny and Wheeler and grinding fourth line around Lowry.

I think that moves us towards the Tampa model and I think puts everyone in a spot to succeed.

 

[Jetsfan79]

The score.ca just released their weekly rankings. Every ranking included a one word description on where each team is trending. "Precarious "is what they listed the Jets as. Even though they are ranked 9th out of 32:

9. Winnipeg Jets (6-3-2)

Previous rank: 19
Precarious: The Jets are collecting wins but are doing so in an unsustainable manner. Winnipeg ranks 24th in five-on-five expected goals at 47.07%, but the team is third with a 9.42 shooting percentage. That can't last forever. If the concerning trends persist while Connor Hellebuyck struggles uncharacteristically, regression could hit hard.

 

[Gil Fisher]

The score.ca just released their weekly rankings. Every ranking included a one word description on where each team is trending. "Precarious "is what they listed the Jets as. Even though they are ranked 9th out of 32:

9. Winnipeg Jets (6-3-2)

Previous rank: 19
Precarious: The Jets are collecting wins but are doing so in an unsustainable manner. Winnipeg ranks 24th in five-on-five expected goals at 47.07%, but the team is third with a 9.42 shooting percentage. That can't last forever. If the concerning trends persist while Connor Hellebuyck struggles uncharacteristically, regression could hit hard.

Looks like they stopped short on their research. Jets have been outscoring their xGF for going on 5 years now. I think they have us about right at #9.

Weird how they also think Hellebuyck's poor play is sustainable.

 

[Huffer]

paging @WPGChief

 

[surixon]

The score.ca just released their weekly rankings. Every ranking included a one word description on where each team is trending. "Precarious "is what they listed the Jets as. Even though they are ranked 9th out of 32:

9. Winnipeg Jets (6-3-2)

Previous rank: 19
Precarious: The Jets are collecting wins but are doing so in an unsustainable manner. Winnipeg ranks 24th in five-on-five expected goals at 47.07%, but the team is third with a 9.42 shooting percentage. That can't last forever. If the concerning trends persist while Connor Hellebuyck struggles uncharacteristically, regression could hit hard.

Just goes to show you that not enough games have been played to accurately use these stats to tell you much of anything. Prior to last game the Jets were middle of the pack in XGF% and were above 50.

If one game on the extreme end can drop a teams results 3% then the sample size isn't large enough yet.

 

[garret9]

Jets always outscore xGoals (xGoals doesn’t actually factor shooter quality) and top Corsi teams often don’t make the playoffs.

But, I some like to dive into this and make inappropriate conclusions so have at it!

Over the past 3 seasons Jets win% in games:
+1 or greater xG => >66%
-1 or fewer xG => <33%

and for Corsi:
Remembering Dellow: A few graphs to convince you on Corsi

shrug

 

[JetsFan815]

Agree about Wheeler, the problem is his toi and Maurice using him as if he is still a primary scorer. I think Scheifele will pick it up and get his head above 50%, although I’m not convinced that happens with Wheeler. I don’t really know what to make of Pionk and Dillon. It seems like a pairing that should do quite well but for whatever reason they’re just not. Dillon is more of a net front guy and he struggles a bit when chasing guys around the zone. Conversely Pionk struggles down low and net front, which he’s forced to do more often when Dillon gets pulled up top by his man. Still, I think they can turn it around.

With Pionk @Kyosama made an interesting observation a few GDTs ago, "see an opposing player left wide open in front of the net? Pionk will be on the ice". Since then I've been looking out for that and more often than not it ends up being true. Now that could just be confirmation bias. I am less worried about Pionk considering how good he was last season but right now it looks like him and Forbort had better chemistry than him and Dillon. I hope he can turn it around soon. If not Mo has to consider changing around the pairings to try to get Pionk going.

 

[garret9]

If you want to be more predictive, look at Corsi. If you want to be more explanatory, look at xGoals...
Although blending both with some sh and sv% regression is better overall.

 

[surixon]

With Pionk @Kyosama made an interesting observation a few GDTs ago, "see an opposing player left wide open in front of the net? Pionk will be on the ice". Since then I've been looking out for that and more often than not it ends up being true. Now that could just be confirmation bias. I am less worried about Pionk considering how good he was last season but right now it looks like him and Forbort had better chemistry than him and Dillon. I hope he can turn it around soon. If not Mo has to consider changing around the pairings to try to get Pionk going.

Very hard to do when the other pairings are playing really well and posting good results.

 

[Atoyot]

I think we've had some really good games and some pretty bad ones, but it seems to be trending in a good direction. However I'd like to see how we fare against better competition before I get too excited or start reading into the numbers too much. We've had a very easy schedule thus far and have lost to some pretty bad teams.

 

[Guffman]

Over the past 3 seasons Jets win% in games:
+1 or greater xG => >66%
-1 or fewer xG => <33%

and for Corsi:
Remembering Dellow: A few graphs to convince you on Corsi

shrug

Re: xG

I said, "Jets always outscore xGoals (xGoals doesn’t actually factor shooter quality)". What was the point of your little exercise?

Re: Corsi

Corsi and #'s explain for the layman

I guess if we take a look at a more recent example (2019-2020), let's see how the top Corsi teams did:

Corsi Rank: 1 NHL Rank: 8
Corsi Rank: 2 NHL Rank: 24
Corsi Rank: 3 NHL Rank: 11
Corsi Rank: 4 NHL Rank: 28

shrug

 

[Guffman]

If you want to be more predictive, look at Corsi.

To illustrate this, you should take the Corsi after half a season from... say 2018-2019, and tell us what the projected standings should be based on this. That would be a neat trick if it actually worked, wouldn't it?

 

[Atoyot]

EDIT: Nope I'm being a dick again.

 

[surixon]

That OT was just an awful display by the team. Didn't help that the refs allowed them to mug us twice.

 

[MardyBum]

EDIT: Nope I'm being a dick again.

I agree with your original post having not even had the opportunity to read it