Post-Game Talk: Jets 6 - Devils 1

[DRW204]

Every post-game thread, he just links WPG Chief’s tweets and nothing else. Like I said before, if WPG Chief doesn’t want to post here, don’t bring his tweets here. Since he’s consistently ignored that, I have dealt with that and just put him on ignore. Moving on.

As for my supposed “ignorance towards analytical models”, yeah… I sure received an earful a few years ago when most of you were Corsi zealots. We sure don’t hear about Corsi anymore.

Clinging to simplistic mathematical models doesn’t make posters more informed. It makes you say silly things like… oh, I dunno… ”Perfetti is playing like a fourth liner” or “Petan has better goal scoring metrics than Laine” or “Marko Dano deserves top 6 position based on his advanced stat metrics”.

dang did Wpgchief run a train on your girl, or turn you down at a bar or something? for someone who hates their tweets, seeing their name etc you sure talk about them a who lot in the GDTs i see. it'll be ok man.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No one’s arguing that these metrics do not have limited uses at times, but too often they’re quoted as undeniable truths, when they’re actually quite subjective.

For example, the Jets were credited with zero 5v5 high danger scoring chances in the 3rd period last night. Would you view the Dubois goal as a high danger scoring chance?

There is undeniable truth behind them. It is undeniable that more possession and more shots lead to more wins. Just don't go claiming that it leads to winning ALL games.

They are not subjective. They are simply imperfect. Subjective would be a guy sitting there labeling shots as high danger according to how it looked to him. The model uses objective and verifiable criteria to rate scoring chances. Those ratings fail to take everything into account and so are imperfect. That does not mean invalid. Just don't use them as 100% predicting each and every micro event and outcome.

These analytics are all based on the predictability that comes with a large data set. The mistake is using them with small samples, like individual games.

It would be interesting to see this Win-o-meter's assessments checked against reality over a season or 2 or 3. Bin them by 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, etc and see how well, or badly it does.

Personally, I like it when it agrees with my eye-test and dislike it when it does not. I will stick to that until I see that someone has validated it by real world results.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Right, so now we can see in hindsight that Corsi (while uselful) had its it's limitations. Proponents of it at the time weren't hedging their opinions with disclaimers like "the Corsi said THIS, but remember, it has its limitations". They used it to draw direct conclusions.

A true analytics nerd would understand that xGF is the same. A useful tool, but it has its own limitations and shouldn't be used as the sole rationale to draw conclusions

Who is drawing conclusions based solely on these things? They are simply information, that's all.

 

[Orrrules]

Sounds like climate models

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That is my biggest beef with the models, they only care about location. Not if the shot is flubbed or is a rocket from the location. Also give me motion where the goalie is not set and has to move to try to make a save. A shot can be from 20 feet further out and the goalie still has less chance of making the save due to having to go cross crease.

Yes, but location is something that we have the ability to track and location does affect the results. Over a large sample, more shots will go in from high danger locations. It is ALWAYS all about sample size. We all know that but we all tend to overlook that.

 

[tbcwpg]

You don't need to like the analytics. You don't need to like WPG Chief, or his tweets. You don't need to like @Fatdrunk posting them here. You also don't need to put him on ignore either. That tends to mess up the thread. Just pass over the posts one by one. No need to comment on them. Just pass over and move on.

One could say that taking almost a page of a thread to individually respond to posts from 4 pages back that the conversation has moved past can also mess up a thread.

The ignore function has its purpose. It prevents more derailment than it causes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed. In lopsided games small sample analytics are next to meaningless. Not sure why someone would even trot them out like they have some importance.

Hmmmm let me take a couple guesses:

Not a real fan
Trying to stir shit up

It is just adding another piece of information. It says that, seen as defined by certain criteria, this is how the game looked. You can then add other contextual information to form your opinion.

That win-o-meter didn't show anything. OTOH, the chart of the flow of play was a very good illustration of score effects. Jets were well ahead in the Corsi based stats until they got up by 4. Then the flow changed.

 

[macmaroon]

You don't need to like the analytics. You don't need to like WPG Chief, or his tweets. You don't need to like @Fatdrunk posting them here. You also don't need to put him on ignore either. That tends to mess up the thread. Just pass over the posts one by one. No need to comment on them. Just pass over and move on.

I agree @Mortimer Snerd, it's like watching TV, if you don't like what's on, change the channel. I found out five years ago that life is too short to get upset about such trivial things. My life has changed for the better, plus I seem to be more rested in the evening because of it...

 

[Jet]

It is just adding another piece of information. It says that, seen as defined by certain criteria, this is how the game looked. You can then add other contextual information to form your opinion.

That win-o-meter didn't show anything. OTOH, the chart of the flow of play was a very good illustration of score effects. Jets were well ahead in the Corsi based stats until they got up by 4. Then the flow changed.

I wasn't @ing you Mort

 

[Gil Fisher]

Hmmmm let me take a couple guesses:

Not a real fan
Trying to stir shit up

Wpgcheif presents a really interesting stat recap each game (that I appreciate) that is always dripping with anti-Jets cynicism (that I don't appreciate).

It's as though it's not cool to be positive about the Jets on Twatter.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's a bad hair day for Morrissey by the way.

and a good one for Barron?

 

[bennylundholm]

Haven't read the entire post game thread so forgive me if this has been explored in depth...
The lines as Bones have them now make so much sense.
I have been advocating for moving 55 to the wing for the longest time. His nonchalance in the defensive zone and mediocre playmaking kill whatever line he is on when he in at centre.
Putting him on the wing with 81 and 80 gives him far less responsibilities to screw up yet gives those two a talented winger who can score.
Namestnikov and Ehlers are the two most talented and high hockey IQ forwards we have. They can bring out the best in 26.
Lowry and Apples get an NHL experienced, hard-nosed, talented winger in Nino who complements them perfectly.
4th line is solid with Barron and the ever-hustling Kuhlman. Stenlund scares me at times.
Just hope Helly does not get hurt.
Go Jets Go.

 

[Jet]

Wpgcheif presents a really interesting stat recap each game (that I appreciate) that is always dripping with anti-Jets cynicism (that I don't appreciate).

It's as though it's not cool to be positive about the Jets on Twatter.

Oh man did I learn that the hard way. I don't even bother anymore.

The thing I don't care for when it comes to guys like Chief, GM0ney and garet (though I really like those guys) is that they present statistics like if you don't believe the narrative that they are pushing that you are a dinosaur or don't know what you are talking about.

I try not to talk about advanced stats anymore as it's exhausting but if you truly believe in data science and analytics, you have to admit that there is a ton of issues with a lot of the statistics in hockey today, which is why they don't always align with the eye or critical analysis through viewing.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I wonder if the gambling sites will utilize the “Deserve to win meter”
Sorry you bet correctly but according to the Deserve to win meter..we can’t pay out on this one

Mitch Hedberg continuing last nights theme.

I saw a billboard for the lottery. It said, "Estimated lottery jackpot 55 million dollars." I did not know that was estimated. That would suck if you won and they said, "Oh, we were off by two zeroes. We estimate that you are angry."

 

[Inanna]

I missed another great game, happily because I was hosting a pizza and beer thank you event and nobody wanted to go home. Flattering but frustrating. So, that's the second game for the Jets that I've missed and the second time they came out flying. Coincidence? You're welcome, but I'm afraid I plan to be glued to the screen for Wednesday.

After reading most of this thread, I was going to unveil my new data model based on whichever team scored the most goals, but I don't want to contribute to the pissing match here. When boys do it, it's usually messier.

From my careful review of last night's highlights package (which leaves me barely informed but why change that now?), I was struck by how often a Jet player was left standing all alone in the front of the net. If you still have access to the game, look at the Jets' first goal. Great work by Wheeler along the boards but Ehlers is standing out front for literally forever. No Devil picks him up and he stands there for the longest time. Try counting out Mississippi's and you'll see what I mean. Same with Conner on his goal. Left all alone, not for as long, but you have to wonder if we bedevilled the opposition there.

Again, it sounded more clever in my head.

 

[voyageur]

Cop out? Huh? It’s as if people don’t realize NHL teams use and value analytics in their decision making. You can dismiss it and mischaracterize it all you like, it’s a growing and evolving aspect of running a successful NHL franchise. People used to say the same things about baseball and now it guides just about everything a team does, right down to on the field. It’s taken a long time to get to that point but by constantly improving their process, gathering the data and learning what to interpret and how, they have a very useful tool. The same thing is happening in hockey whether you accept it or dismiss it or not.
People have always been afraid or rejected things they don’t understand. It shakes their belief in what they think they know, might not actually be the case. Personally I call that learning and growth. Analytics in hockey and baseball have given me a far broader understanding of what happens in a game and the value in it. It’s changed a lot of my inherent bias and given me a different perspective on what actually matters and what doesn’t.

I think analytics in baseball in much more useful because you are dealing with individuals. In a team sport analytics do get used, but the data being tracked may not be publicly available. We saw that with two analytic darlings, Harkins and Eyssimont, being demoted, but the data that wasn't favourable to them was more pertaining to passing efficiency in the defensive zone. Something that we have seen European analytics track more fervently than North America.

We've also seen a change in coaching strategy where special teams roles have more importance than the simple analytics.

We've seen some winning coaches suggest that shot based analytics get misused by players, who will shoot for the stat (Trouba is one that comes to mind), where the right play might be to put the puck in the corner and keep possession, especially with no bodies or sticks for deflection in front of the goalie on a point shot.

One of things that still gets me is that a shot based approach still doesn't recognize the value of possession time. So a good 4th line shift that keeps the puck in deep and effectuates a line change with zone possession is a good shift regardless of a shot on goal. Because the reality is that zone possession time is the ultimate goal in hockey, it's a unique feature of the game. But I'm still waiting for someone to watch hockey with a stopwatch I guess.

I think the most important thing is to put context into analytics. The results should come with supporting data. Who are you playing against? Who are you playing with? In what situation are you playing, because that was one that I argued didn't favour Lowry analytically, playing from the defensive zone, and I had a good argument earlier in the year about how the Jets defensemen who were primarily used in game situation where the Jets were defending a lead tended to have worse analytics than the players who weren't being used in that role. So context for me is key. You shouldn't be afraid of math, it's everywhere, but logic and statistics are sometimes at odds, and that's where you need context.

 

[voyageur]

You just know when the team wants to play better it does.

Question is when they don't, why?

There's a lot to be said about arriving in Winnipeg in the middle of the night. One of the first jobs I had when I worked in the city was a hotel security guard, and I can describe the players reactions to arriving at a Winnipeg hotel in the middle of the night as despondent.

So I think there is at least the recognition by the staff and players of an opportunity. Maybe it gets translated into desire, but that may be because the opposition desires to get out of Winnipeg, and isn't motivated.

 

[ps241]

You just know when the team wants to play better it does.

Question is when they don't, why?

My belief is that it is way more random

back to my usual example

I always want to score well in golf

Most times I go out and suck even tough I want to do well, sometimes it comes together for some unknown reason but my desire is usually similar. Crappy shots get in your head and can have a compounding effect...........good shots can have the opposite effect. I have noticed this same phenomenon with Pro golfers. That is an individual game with way less moving parts. Now take hockey with 21 players and an opposing team actively trying to kick your ass............... I think its dangerous to cherry pick out good games (when perhaps the other team is sucking that night) and assume that is who were are when we want it. Maybe who we are is actually our worst game when we are totally flat its just now and then we get lucky and the other team is sleepwalking. I am not a par golfer even though I get par on at least 4 holes a round.

Every hockey team has good shifts and bad shifts.............good periods and bad periods..........good games and bad games...........hot stretches of games and cold stretches of games and everything in between.

The Jets are not unique in fact I think they are like most hockey teams. Some nights it looks great and all comes together...............other nights its a a complete cluster f***.

Disclaimer: The events in this post are based on a true story but some facts will be distorted to protect the innocent or for artistic purposes.

 

[WolfHouse]

I can't believe there's a multi-page debate whether we want to see analytics on this forum or not... I guess it interferes with our own biases too much?

WpgChief has solid posts and analysis - its too bad he was pushed out of here by a small group. Now it seems they want to banish his content completely since it doesn't always agree with their fandom...

I do notice its the same people who would cite the %chance of the Jets winning if we had lost as a reason for hope...

We are winning games now because Bowness finally made the decisions WpgChief has been suggesting for a while - give Ehlers PP1, backchecking helps our D's fancy stats and split Scheif/Wheeler.... thought everyone would be happy now.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I knew we were faking it this whole time

 

[Guffman]

WpgChief has solid posts and analysis - its too bad he was pushed out of here by a small group. Now it seems they want to banish his content completely since it doesn't always agree with their fandom...

Who pushed him out?

I am fine if someone wants to post their opinions on here but they should be prepared to back them up if others disagree.

If he doesn't want to back up his stuff on here, don't bring his stuff here because we can't retort to him about how he might be wrong on some stuff. THAT is the issue I have.

It's like someone posting an opinion here that has the entire forum on ignore. It doesn't really increase the conversation if you can't reply to the person who made the post in the first place.

 

[Stumbledore]

There's a lot to be said about arriving in Winnipeg in the middle of the night. One of the first jobs I had when I worked in the city was a hotel security guard, and I can describe the players reactions to arriving at a Winnipeg hotel in the middle of the night as despondent.

So I think there is at least the recognition by the staff and players of an opportunity. Maybe it gets translated into desire, but that may be because the opposition desires to get out of Winnipeg, and isn't motivated.

If Calgary wins on Tuesday night, when they arrive here in the middle of the night they'll be anything but despondent.

 

[Ducky10]

Who pushed him out?

I am fine if someone wants to post their opinions on here but they should be prepared to back them up if others disagree.

If he doesn't want to back up his stuff on here, don't bring his stuff here because we can't retort to him about how he might be wrong on some stuff. THAT is the issue I have.

It's like someone posting an opinion here that has the entire forum on ignore. It doesn't really increase the conversation if you can't reply to the person who made the post in the first place.

Back up why he’s wrong. With all due respect, you don’t really offer a different opinion, your go to is to mock and show disdain to what’s presented. All that is being presented is the data that the model is designed to calculate and evaluate. All those numbers posted show is how those combinations of players performed based on the criteria the model is based on. It’s not meant to include context, but that doesn’t mean it’s not considered. What you want to draw from it is up to you, personally I think there are lots of takeaways from it and so do most NHL teams. I have no use for it in evaluating it in the context of a single game and whether or not the Jets won. That’s not intent and to think that is ignorance.
Analytics are mainly about player evaluation, and they are extremely useful when it comes to that. How much they mean on a team level is very dependent on how teams choose to interpret that data and put it into action with their player and roster selection. Tampa and Colorado are two teams who have used analytics to great success very recently.

 

[WolfHouse]

Who pushed him out?

I am fine if someone wants to post their opinions on here but they should be prepared to back them up if others disagree.

If he doesn't want to back up his stuff on here, don't bring his stuff here because we can't retort to him about how he might be wrong on some stuff. THAT is the issue I have.

It's like someone posting an opinion here that has the entire forum on ignore. It doesn't really increase the conversation if you can't reply to the person who made the post in the first place.

Dude literally said he doesn't post on here anymore because some posters seem to take offence when he simply posted his statistical analysis... and that they wouldn't let up so it took the fun out of it.

As for who was doing that, you're guess is as good as mine

I mean look at the same fans who turn to 'statistically' we should have beaten Las Vegas... kinda the same people flaming @Fatdrunk for just posting stats

 

[Royale With Cheese]

This debate about posting analytics shows the value of simply ignoring things and moving on - no ignore button, just don't read it and move along.

Who cares if a poster here posts a tweet unless it's inflammatory? Pretty much everything on this site is opinion anyway, it's just shown different ways.

I choose to just watch the games, and have never dug into analytics or any deep analysis. I do however appreciate the posters that do take the time to either post the work of others, or write it out themselves. This adds to my assessment of and interest in the game when I feel like doing a deep dive. On the days I don't - which is most - I simply skip over these posts.

Live and let live.