Huffer
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That's what I was thinking too. You can watch all the players on the ice and see who might have been out of position, etc. (Obviously the technology has to be "right", but you know what I mean)
Post-Game Talk: Jets 6 - Coilers 0
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That's what I was thinking too. You can watch all the players on the ice and see who might have been out of position, etc. (Obviously the technology has to be "right", but you know what I mean)
abax44
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Buffdog
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I'm wondering g why people aren't shitting on CSV for having and absolute shit xGF% of 12.73%
Oh, right... it's because it wasn't CSV. It was ENP lol
As badly as schief gets caved, he NEVER gets caved that badly. Yet the statsnerds overlook it becaue two of their golden children are on that line
Queue the "sample size" folks incoming
Oh, right... it's because it wasn't CSV. It was ENP lol
As badly as schief gets caved, he NEVER gets caved that badly. Yet the statsnerds overlook it becaue two of their golden children are on that line
Queue the "sample size" folks incoming
I'm outside the city using Starlink. Soooo... no.
Also, I prefer Stremio.
I'm talking about others less gifted than some in providers...
sipowicz
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Joe Hallenback
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They played like a 1st line yesterday. They were pretty dominant when the game mattered
I don't really get it. Why would 'stats nerds' overlook stats? What is it you think makes "the golden children" golden in the eyes of "stats nerds"? Isn't it because they have great stats?
If ENP had an extended period with poor stats why wouldn't a stats nerd take that into account? They're a stats nerd... do you think people just think Ehlers is handsome or something?
And why wouldn't sample size matter... is there a reason you think this game is more representative of ENP than their extended stats? Or are you just trying to suggest that the concept of tracking shot share is stupid because players who usually have good shot share had a game where they had bad shot share?
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Buffdog
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I'm yet to se one stats guy on here change their opinion about anything. It's always excuses, cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias
If ehlers and perfetti continue to underperform (of course I realize it was only one game), then it calls into question the whole narrative of the two of them being stats darlings
Personally, I think it's reasonable to use the same number of games to gauge that line as they used to annoint ESV as the best line on the Jets last year- about 8 games. Either that sample size is large enough or it isn't- can't have it both ways, right?
Mud Turtle
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They were completely invisible last night. Absolutely no chemistry.
No speed from Perfetti (expected)
No speed from Ehlers (not expected)
Idk I feel like you're conjuring imaginary people to argue with. If Perfetti and Ehlers suck at hockey for an extended period and a bunch of "stats guys" refuse to acknowledge it then I guess I'll agree?
For sure. And when (in imaginary land) CSV puts up 58%xg and 70+% actual goal share and ENP falters, leading us to total league domination in that month... you will definitely just be sitting back calmly reminding others that the sample is too small and it doesn't necessarily make sense to keep them together, right?
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
Great game. Team was pretty locked in. Noticed on Connor’s goal Nik was there for a redirect and Valardi was waiting back door. Then later on Ehlers shot for a redirect on Scheif’s 2nd goal.
Just clean up some of those unforced turnovers in the 3rd and we’re good.
Just clean up some of those unforced turnovers in the 3rd and we’re good.
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
How is that even possible? lol Yeh there was no chemistry at all. Weird their ice time was on par with the 4th line. But if we’re matching the 1st and 3rd line on the road against McDavid and Drai, you gotta limit when you get them out there because that line will struggle hard against EDM 1st and 2nd. Our 4th line can just rotate out against the 3rd and 4the.
Romang67
BitterSwede
According to that Blackhawks guy, they have found that the tracking data differs from the actual position by distances in the range of 1-3 inches. So it seems pretty reliable. Of course, he would say so.
Scheifele had two games in the 2022-23 season when his xGF% was in the single digits. And not even the high ones.
The stats nerds probably overlook the single game sample for xGF% because it's not very useful.
Sometimes players get absolutely caved in in a game. What you want to avoid is that happening to them game in and game out.
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JetsFan815
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For sure. And when (in imaginary land) CSV puts up 58%xg and 70+% actual goal share and ENP falters, leading us to total league domination in that month... you will definitely just be sitting back calmly reminding others that the sample is too small and it doesn't necessarily make sense to keep them together, right?
Heck forget those lofty numbers I'd even take being an average top line to start with lol
I was checking something before the season which led me to comparing top lines across the league and CSV were ranked:
28/31 in Actual Goals % (Chicago, Anaheim, Seattle and Washington worse)
31/31 in xGF%
29/31 in CF% (only San Jose and Chicago worse)
My expectations were low but I didn't expect them to fair that poorly vs other normal top lines. Hopefully they are better this season or common sense prevails and the right thing is done if they continue to play like this.
Buffdog
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I'm not conjuring up imaginary anyone. I could name 5 posters right now. You know who they areIdk I feel like you're conjuring imaginary people to argue with. If Perfetti and Ehlers suck at hockey for an extended period and a bunch of "stats guys" refuse to acknowledge it then I guess I'll agree?
For sure. And when (in imaginary land) CSV puts up 58%xg and 70+% actual goal share and ENP falters, leading us to total league domination in that month... you will definitely just be sitting back calmly reminding others that the sample is too small and it doesn't necessarily make sense to keep them together, right?
So just to be clear... ESV dominated for 8 games and rhat sample was large enough for t"those posters who won't be named" to whine every day for the rest of the season for that line to be reunited. So that sample if that sample.soze is large enough for that, it's large enough to draw conclusions for any line combo
JetsFan815
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Watching Sportsnet talking heads is the first mistake people make!
WolfHouse
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Did you just start an argument just to refute it and claim people are overreacting...
If you are actually going to use these fancy stats, then you havd to acknowledge that csv got absolutely caved while the game was still 2-0
gojetsgo
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when I checked after the 2nd they were positive...Did you just start an argument just to refute it and claim people are overreacting...
If you are actually going to use these fancy stats, then you havd to acknowledge that csv got absolutely caved while the game was still 2-0
WolfHouse
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Look at the shift corsi/xgf on natural stat trick
For a one game sample theres no sense looking at game numbers - review shift by shift
I dont even care really - but @Buffdog created his own straw man and then got huffy against the 'other posters' so ill bite.
Look at the shifts - csv got caved after we were up 2-0
voyageur
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I am just wondering if Appleton can sustain his 240 point pace. People keep saying we need more scoring out of our checking line.Did you just start an argument just to refute it and claim people are overreacting...
If you are actually going to use these fancy stats, then you havd to acknowledge that csv got absolutely caved while the game was still 2-0
How many minutes did those lines play though? Hard to compare a line who never really had a chance to get rolling. Especially with Connor coming off a knee injury.
voyageur
Hockey fanatic
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The Oilers haven't looked right all preseason. I think Mc David has more pressure this year with a worse team around him, and the difference between Hellebuyck and Skinner last night is making saves look easy vs. making saves look difficult. I'm hoping the Oil tank this year.
Some of the discussions on here get way off base IMO. Last night was a horrible game to try and get any kind of barring on possession numbers and even worse for something like xGF%. We had the best offensive team in the league down 5 - 0 half way through the game. Nothing after that will be a reasonable analysis of play. It will be severely tilted as we we run down the clock and they throw everything into the attack, Which we did amazingly well with mostly only allowing low percentage attempts against.
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