Post-Game Talk: Jets 3 - Hawks 2 in OT

[MardyBum]

Schief’s passes to 81 last night were pretty bad. They were usually way behind him.

Agreed and don't even get me started on the overpassing

 

[Buffdog]

I'm sorry, what am I reading here with regards to Connor? Are the labels just garbage?

To me this is the 2nd best way that this chart can look after a game we won

Obviously, you'd want all of your lines to dominate their matchups (some posters on here lose their shit if they don't)... but guess what? This is the NHL... even shitty teams have good players who are going to have good games.

BUT, when you build a team whose strength is its depth, you're gonna have nights where a line or two loses their matchup, even the first line

So you have schielf and Lowry doing the heavy lifting against the other teams best, and not winning but also not losing (in terms of goals for/against). That breakaway goal can't be pinned on the forwards

So that opens up a soft matchup for the Monahan line which they need to win. And they did. Fourth line as well

I'd advise people to get used to this as we get closer to the playoffs. If we end up vs Van or Edm, it will be schief and Lowry drawing the top lines vs those teams, which should expose soft matchups for the 2nd and 4th lines. Win the special teams and goaltending battles, and we have a chance for success

The alternative is to put Ehlers on the top line and drop Connor to the 2nd. OK, so guess what... schiefs line still won't want their matchup vs McDavid or EP, and now that 2nd line is structured to be less likely to feast on the other teams' third and fourth lines

 

[Romang67]

I'm not sure how it factors to the mean, and whether it's a personal average or league average. My guess is it's a representation of goals and expected goals. KC is a defensively bad goal scorer. I haven't been following how they get their scores that closely.

Yeah, Connor is definitely bad defensively, but that's also not what that chart is saying. Reading it based on the labels, it's saying that the team was bad offensively while he was on the ice compared to the average, but that he (and his linemate Vilardi) produced offensively.

It does seem to align somewhat well with his rate of expected goals for (xGF / ice time) while on the ice compared to the rest of the team, so maybe that's what it is?

I don't know, seems like bad naming conventions.

 

[Jet]

Yeah, I'm getting that. What I'm questioning is why Connor's individual game score on offense is a full 2 points higher than his on-ice offense above average. If the naming isn't garbage, shouldn't there be some kind of alignment between the individual offense 5v5 of the linemates, and the linemates' offense above average?

Pssst... here's a hint: these stats are trash.

Any time I see x in front of something I know the data is dirty.

You can't make a proper analysis of anything when the environment is impure and you start introducing subjectivity into the equation.

This remains the main issue with advanced stats. I think the turning point for metrics like this is when generative ai is introduced. Then we can see the compilation and analysis of thousands of bits of data in a completely unbiased and standardized way.

Until they take the human element and wild variances out of the metrics they will have modest value at best.

I think that's why, though teams do look at these measures, they are not used with the same weight as fans do.

 

[Inanna]

Well 2 points is great, man something about Chicago they have been tough games. Someone should have turned that Radish into a vegetable after hitting Helly like that. Terrible pass from Stanley on Chicago's first goal, can't do that and we need to shoot more, Connor's goal was a pass that luckily went in . Ehlers with a good game , now we dance.

It's not really a victory until The Dude dances.

Your personal stories are getting way more interesting than @Inanna's. I may have to switch my infatuation to you.

Oh please, oh please,oh please, ohplease, ohplease, ohplease, oh please....

Pssst... here's a hint: these stats are trash.

Any time I see x in front of something I know the data is dirty.

You can't make a proper analysis of anything when the environment is impure and you start introducing subjectivity into the equation.

This remains the main issue with advanced stats. I think the turning point for metrics like this is when generative ai is introduced. Then we can see the compilation and analysis of thousands of bits of data in a completely unbiased and standardized way.

Until they take the human element and wild variances out of the metrics they will have modest value at best.

I think that's why, though teams do look at these measures, they are not used with the same weight as fans do.

Excellent post. Even 'basic' stats like hits are now under review and the NHL is saying they will have to 'correct' the figures to compensate for subjective under reporting.

 

[Romang67]

Pssst... here's a hint: these stats are trash.

Any time I see x in front of something I know the data is dirty.

You can't make a proper analysis of anything when the environment is impure and you start introducing subjectivity into the equation.

This remains the main issue with advanced stats. I think the turning point for metrics like this is when generative ai is introduced. Then we can see the compilation and analysis of thousands of bits of data in a completely unbiased and standardized way.

Until they take the human element and wild variances out of the metrics they will have modest value at best.

I think that's why, though teams do look at these measures, they are not used with the same weight as fans do.

That's not what generative AI is.

Generative AI has already been introduced in hockey, in form of Dall-E generated images and generic sounding articles.

I'm generally fine with expected stats, knowing that they essentially mean that while a player was on the ice, a set number of shots were fired from specific locations on the ice, and more or fewer of them had the puck moving from one side of the offensive zone to the other before the shots. But that's also not what the legend on the graph is saying.

 

[Jet]

That's not what generative AI is.

Generative AI has already been introduced in hockey, in form of Dall-E generated images and generic sounding articles.

I'm generally fine with expected stats, knowing that they essentially mean that while a player was on the ice, a set number of shots were fired from specific locations on the ice, and more or fewer of them had the puck moving from one side of the offensive zone to the other before the shots. But that's also not what the legend on the graph is saying.

My bad, you're absolutely correct. What I meant to say is just ai.

You'd think someone working in the industry would get it right

 

[Buffdog]

Pssst... here's a hint: these stats are trash.

Any time I see x in front of something I know the data is dirty.

You can't make a proper analysis of anything when the environment is impure and you start introducing subjectivity into the equation.

This remains the main issue with advanced stats. I think the turning point for metrics like this is when generative ai is introduced. Then we can see the compilation and analysis of thousands of bits of data in a completely unbiased and standardized way.

Until they take the human element and wild variances out of the metrics they will have modest value at best.

I think that's why, though teams do look at these measures, they are not used with the same weight as fans do.

I have pretty strong opinions on "advanced stats" in hockey also

The biggest problem is the structured chaotic nature of the game. After the Moneyball stuff started in baseball, nerds everywhere who never played hockey (or who never played high level) started trying to do the same thing for this sport

The problem is that baseball, at its core, is an individual sport played as a team. It's batter vs pitcher. Sure, things like the defense behind the pitcher and the strength of rhe batters in the line uparound the guy at the plate might have a small effect, bit not like hockey. Also, players stand in pre determined static positions and travel on pre determined paths.


Hockey is largely chaotic. Sure, players play within systems but there is a huge variability. When a guy. Gets the puck, he doesn't have 20 seconds to decode what to do. He can fling the puck in any direction he wishes, and the other 9 skaters have to react accordingly. A batter knows exactly where the ball is and where it will be delivered from, and when

So in baseball, you can take a players batting average and move him from teak to team and it will stay rather consistent. In other words, baseball stats tend to be predictive more than hockey stats.

To be honest, xGF (for example) has come out to be fairly good (but not perfect) at describing the game that just happened. It most often matches the eye test pretty closely

BUT the mistake many make is using that stat as some kind of proof that a player hols certain attributes and will continue to do so in the future.

TL/DR advanced hockey stats have some value as descriptors, but little as predictors. Too many uncontrollable variables by the nature of the sport

 

[kanadalainen]

Who got the OT goal started? Why JM, of course. Assisted on all 3 goals. Stud.

JoMo stripped the Hawks player in the D zone, retrieved that, and assisted 81. Pretty nice.

 

[Adam da bomb]

JoMo stripped the Hawks player in the D zone, retrieved that, and assisted 81. Pretty nice.

But that's why assists can be misleading. I mean Ehlers goals seemed like such solo efforts vs the pass that he made on 81's goal.

 

[kanadalainen]

But that's why assists can be misleading. I mean Ehlers goals seemed like such solo efforts vs the pass that he made on 81's goal.

Yep. 81 kind of waltzed in with possession for much of the length of the ice, despite coverage. And then zinged it off the foot of the defending Hawk.

 

[The Blue Baron]

JoMo stripped the Hawks player in the D zone, retrieved that, and assisted 81. Pretty nice.

He is amazing makes so many crazy good “little plays” game in game out!

 

[LowLefty]

55’s line problems are a direct result of the fact that 81 cannot win a board battle and they lose possession almost every time that it’s his responsibility. In all zones. 55 and 13 are doing really well imo, but it doesn’t do any good when your linemate kills every play.

I know how good KC can be as a goal scorer, but I swear if you replaced him on the top line with anyone with tenacity, that line would be dominating. Count how many times he loses the puck in all zones. He just can’t keep a play going.

I’m a big 81 fan in all other areas, but we have to be honest about what is happening out there.

And then we'd be saying - If only our board battlers could score

TBH, I'm seeing a lot of what you are - but he's usually better at spinning off coverage and winning battles without the physical.
I think he's struggling a bit with his possession game and I'm not sure why - usually he's a big part of the cycle via his skating, stick and quickness.
He's never been a board battle type of player - like most smaller, skilled players.

 

[hn777]

So what exactly is Ehlers injury?
If he ever gets healthy he might score as many goal as Matthews.

In half the icetime

 

[BoneDocUK]

And then we'd be saying - If only our board battlers could score

TBH, I'm seeing a lot of what you are - but he's usually better at spinning off coverage and winning battles without the physical.
I think he's struggling a bit with his possession game and I'm not sure why - usually he's a big part of the cycle via his skating, stick and quickness.
He's never been a board battle type of player - like most smaller, skilled players.

He's a terrific player on the cycle. I think part of that is the deception and time he buys with his edgework and hands -- if you take him on and miss as a defender, you''re likely going to get punished.

I may be thinking something I'm not actually seeing, but I feel like at the moment he's showing less bilateral mobility than usual, maybe as a result of injury and ongoing recovery. So while he isn't always going to power opponents off the puck along the boards, he is capable of grabbing and keeping the puck and, like Cole, knowing where to be before and after.

KFC may be smaller but he has excellent core strength and balance. Looks to me like he's a little more careful with those torque and twist motions of late. Pretty common to see in musc/skel injury rehab -- we tend to do a lot of involuntary "testing" as part of making sure of ourselves, even in competition situations.

 

[LowLefty]

He's a terrific player on the cycle. I think part of that is the deception and time he buys with his edgework and hands -- if you take him on and miss as a defender, you''re likely going to get punished.

I may be thinking something I'm not actually seeing, but I feel like at the moment he's showing less bilateral mobility than usual, maybe as a result of injury and ongoing recovery. So while he isn't always going to power opponents off the puck along the boards, he is capable of grabbing and keeping the puck and, like Cole, knowing where to be before and after.

KFC may be smaller but he has excellent core strength and balance. Looks to me like he's a little more careful with those torque and twist motions of late. Pretty common to see in musc/skel injury rehab -- we tend to do a lot of involuntary "testing" as part of making sure of ourselves, even in competition situations.

Good points - he might be a bit nervous about the knee and isn't making those cuts in traffic like he used to.
Might be a bit if a stretch but I'm stumped on why he's struggling with what used to be a core part of his game

 

[ThinIce61]

If this forum was a person it would be taking Xanax, Lithium and Ex-lax.

Well many of the posts to these forums are nothing more than verbal diarrhea at times.

 

[Howard Chuck]

And then we'd be saying - If only our board battlers could score

TBH, I'm seeing a lot of what you are - but he's usually better at spinning off coverage and winning battles without the physical.
I think he's struggling a bit with his possession game and I'm not sure why - usually he's a big part of the cycle via his skating, stick and quickness.
He's never been a board battle type of player - like most smaller, skilled players.

Yes. I agree he has been better in the past with his agility, but for quite a while he has been taken to the boards and relieved of the puck. He may be being targeted now that other teams are seeing him as an easy way to get possession in either end.

Some smaller skilled players are better at it. Ehlers for instance or even pionk on defense. Either way and for whatever reason, I think it’s dragging down 55 and 13. Having only 2/3 of your line able to possess the puck, means the line as a whole can’t hold possession, because if I see it then other teams are definitely seeing it and adjusting accordingly.

I really hate to come across as being so down on KC, but he hasn’t been great in quite a while and I’m just being honest. (And yes I’m happy he scored for us last night when we needed it).

 

[Gm0ney]

Why did Samberg only play 10:13 at 5v5 and 12:36 total TOI last night? Really low for a defenseman - even for one paired with Stanley...

 

[Howard Chuck]

He's a terrific player on the cycle. I think part of that is the deception and time he buys with his edgework and hands -- if you take him on and miss as a defender, you''re likely going to get punished.

I may be thinking something I'm not actually seeing, but I feel like at the moment he's showing less bilateral mobility than usual, maybe as a result of injury and ongoing recovery. So while he isn't always going to power opponents off the puck along the boards, he is capable of grabbing and keeping the puck and, like Cole, knowing where to be before and after.

KFC may be smaller but he has excellent core strength and balance. Looks to me like he's a little more careful with those torque and twist motions of late. Pretty common to see in musc/skel injury rehab -- we tend to do a lot of involuntary "testing" as part of making sure of ourselves, even in competition situations.

I also wondered if the injury had something to do with it. If that is the case bones should be adjusting lineups accordingly. I say this, but I don’t have the answer.

 

[Guardian17]

 

[Atoyot]

Yeah, I'm getting that. What I'm questioning is why Connor's individual game score on offense is a full 2 points higher than his on-ice offense above average. If the naming isn't garbage, shouldn't there be some kind of alignment between the individual offense 5v5 of the linemates, and the linemates' offense above average?

I think individual offense is more raw offensive numbers. He scored a goal and had 3 shots, that boosts his individual offense despite the fact that not much was created while his line was on the ice.

 

[WolfHouse]

This is the scariest 5 out of 6 wins I've ever seen...

Wtf Is tnse's loyalty to Stanley about.... he's a massive liability

Same can be said about pionk

Everyone has quit on bowness system for a second year in a row... I don't get it

Helle is this teams only hope

 

[DRW204]

Yeah, I'm getting that. What I'm questioning is why Connor's individual game score on offense is a full 2 points higher than his on-ice offense above average. If the naming isn't garbage, shouldn't there be some kind of alignment between the individual offense 5v5 of the linemates, and the linemates' offense above average?

I think individual offense is more raw offensive numbers. He scored a goal and had 3 shots, that boosts his individual offense despite the fact that not much was created while his line was on the ice.

Atoyt is right, one is individual one is "on ice" (ie: corsi%, goal%) which is how natural stat trick denotes it. -1 at 5v5 GF vs GA. -14 in 5v5 shot-share puts his "on-ice" offense low but an EV individual goal and SOGs put his individual offense high.

idk if the weighting has been adjusted, but in 2019 it was 0.05 per shot-attempt differential, & 0.15 for GF differential (at 5v5 hockey), so would be -0.85

GF + 3 SOG would be 0.975, so essentially the 2 pts higher you noted.

 

[raideralex99]

I have pretty strong opinions on "advanced stats" in hockey also

The biggest problem is the structured chaotic nature of the game. After the Moneyball stuff started in baseball, nerds everywhere who never played hockey (or who never played high level) started trying to do the same thing for this sport

The problem is that baseball, at its core, is an individual sport played as a team. It's batter vs pitcher. Sure, things like the defense behind the pitcher and the strength of rhe batters in the line uparound the guy at the plate might have a small effect, bit not like hockey. Also, players stand in pre determined static positions and travel on pre determined paths.


Hockey is largely chaotic. Sure, players play within systems but there is a huge variability. When a guy. Gets the puck, he doesn't have 20 seconds to decode what to do. He can fling the puck in any direction he wishes, and the other 9 skaters have to react accordingly. A batter knows exactly where the ball is and where it will be delivered from, and when

So in baseball, you can take a players batting average and move him from teak to team and it will stay rather consistent. In other words, baseball stats tend to be predictive more than hockey stats.

To be honest, xGF (for example) has come out to be fairly good (but not perfect) at describing the game that just happened. It most often matches the eye test pretty closely

BUT the mistake many make is using that stat as some kind of proof that a player hols certain attributes and will continue to do so in the future.

TL/DR advanced hockey stats have some value as descriptors, but little as predictors. Too many uncontrollable variables by the nature of the sport

Well said ... copy and paste this whenever advance stats are posted.