Post-Game Talk: Jets 3 - Hawks 2 in OT

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The Jets had their minds else where today … trying to find a good realtor.:D

Watching the Wild and Oilers now … Stanley should have gone on waivers or LITR.:huh:
Chrislom dekes out McDavid carries the puck down the ice and sets up the go ahead goal.
same as what i said and i'll raise you a 88
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Impeccable logic is impeccable.

It’s the classic “which is more likely?” gotcha. Here’s a great form:

“Tommy and Gina are two classic all-American teenagers in a relationship.

Gina is svelte, attractive, and the captain of the cheerleading squad.

Based only on this, which is most likely true about Tommy?

A. He’s tall
B. He’s tall and dark
C. He’s tall, dark, and handsome
D. He’s tall, dark, handsome, and captain of the glee club”

When I ask this in a crowd of my contemporaries, almost everyone says “C”, but when one thinks about it, it’s literally impossible for “A” to be less likely than any of the subsets of A.

In football? Maybe it’s possible that six point leads are worse than 4 or 5 point leads, or that 2 is worse than 1. Somehow. At least it’s possible. Especially in the CFL.

But yeah. Once one appreciates that “A” is the way above, it all makes sense.
 
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A win's a win I guess, but giving up a lead in the last minute to the worst team in the league and being outshot and outplayed for the majority of the game doesn't inspire much confidence. The team is being outshot more often than not and the first line seems to always be hemmed in their own zone and don't seem to generate consistent offense. It seems to be an all too familiar tale of the last few seasons. They can get away with this to some degree against the worst teams in the league but not so much the average to good teams. I hope they can break out of their funk.

I thought Morrissey had a good game. Helly was his usual boring amazing self. Ehlers broke out this game.

Start Helly on Sunday and give Brossoit the St Louis game on Tuesday.
 
It’s the classic “which is more likely?” gotcha. Here’s a great form:

“Tommy and Gina are classic all-American teenagers. Gina is svelte, attractive, and the captain of the cheerleading squad.

Based only on this, which is most likely true about Tommy?

A. He’s tall
B. He’s tall and dark
C. He’s tall, dark, and handsome
D. He’s tall, dark, handsome, and captain of the glee club”

When I ask this in a crowd of my contemporaries, almost everyone says “C”, but when one thinks about it, it’s literally impossible for “A” to be less likely than any of the subsets of A.

In football? Maybe it’s possible that six point leads are worse than 4 or 5 point leads, or that 2 is worse than 1. Somehow. At least it’s possible. Especially in the CFL.

But yeah. Once one appreciates that “A” is the way above, it all makes sense.
Somehow, I’m sorry I asked.
 
It’s the classic “which is more likely?” gotcha. Here’s a great form:

“Tommy and Gina are classic all-American teenagers. Gina is svelte, attractive, and the captain of the cheerleading squad.

Based only on this, which is most likely true about Tommy?

A. He’s tall
B. He’s tall and dark
C. He’s tall, dark, and handsome
D. He’s tall, dark, handsome, and captain of the glee club”

When I ask this in a crowd of my contemporaries, almost everyone says “C”, but when one thinks about it, it’s literally impossible for “A” to be less likely than any of the subsets of A.

In football? Maybe it’s possible that six point leads are worse than 4 or 5 point leads, or that 2 is worse than 1. Somehow. At least it’s possible. Especially in the CFL.

But yeah. Once one appreciates that “A” is the way above, it all makes sense.
Holy crap, I learned something. And it makes sense.
 
The worst lead in hockey is a one goal lead. No lead gets blown as often as a one goal lead. For instance, as there are no field goals in hockey, it is impossible to blow a two goal lead without also blowing a one goal lead, but not every blown one goal lead came from an also-blown two goal lead

Impeccable logic is impeccable.
I don't think that's what's meant by the two-goal lead story though. It's more that it seems to be much more likely to go from a 2 goal lead to a 1 goal lead than it is to go from a 2 goal lead to a 3 goal lead. In contrast, when you're ahead by 1, it seems like it's closer to 50-50 whether you stretch that to 2 or the other team ties it up. So it's more about who is likelier to score the next goal when you're up 2 vs. who is likelier to score when you're up 1 -- not about the outcome of the entire game.
 
It’s the classic “which is more likely?” gotcha. Here’s a great form:

“Tommy and Gina are classic all-American teenagers. Gina is svelte, attractive, and the captain of the cheerleading squad.

Based only on this, which is most likely true about Tommy?

A. He’s tall
B. He’s tall and dark
C. He’s tall, dark, and handsome
D. He’s tall, dark, handsome, and captain of the glee club”

When I ask this in a crowd of my contemporaries, almost everyone says “C”, but when one thinks about it, it’s literally impossible for “A” to be less likely than any of the subsets of A.

In football? Maybe it’s possible that six point leads are worse than 4 or 5 point leads, or that 2 is worse than 1. Somehow. At least it’s possible. Especially in the CFL.

But yeah. Once one appreciates that “A” is the way above, it all makes sense.

Answer is E - We know Tommy is not George. :naughty:
 
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I don't think that's what's meant by the two-goal lead story though. It's more that it seems to be much more likely to go from a 2 goal lead to a 1 goal lead than it is to go from a 2 goal lead to a 3 goal lead. In contrast, when you're ahead by 1, it seems like it's closer to 50-50 whether you stretch that to 2 or the other team ties it up. So it's more about who is likelier to score the next goal when you're up 2 vs. who is likelier to score when you're up 1 -- not about the outcome of the entire game.

Until the goalie is out of the net, the team that’s down by 2 is probably likelier to score because they’re playing full-gear to get a goal and the other team is playing to prevent one. Of course, once the goalie is out, that changes.

An interesting challenge would be to see if teams whose *maximum* lead was 2 wins up losing more than a maximum lead of 1. With the massive benefit of 2 vs 1 (like 85% vs 70% if the game started that way) I don’t think so.

TL;DR: I’m far less worried with a two goal lead than a one goal lead, even if my *disappointment* is far higher in the cases the former is blown.
 
One of its legs are both the same.
Driving to work across the Lake Ponchatrain causeway in ‘89, guy in front of me runs over the head of a 9’ alligator that somehow found itself trying to get to N’Alllins..Gator, brain dead, stands on its tail and does a spinning amazing pirouette for 10 seconds, I swerve and avoid and think..”He’d make a great NHL defenseman!”
 
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