Post-Game Talk: Jets 2 - Hawks 1 in OT

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah he's bringing a lot of energy and disruption. At the very least hopefully he's a prototypical 4th line center. He can win draws, PK, be hard on the forecheck and give us 10-12 minutes a night of low risk play.

That 4th line looks so primed to be a unit that can pot 40 goals while not giving up too much, that's a pretty good 4th line.


And he's good looking!!!

40 goals would be more than a "pretty good" 4th line. It would be epic.
Last year Kupari had none, Gus had 3, Barron had 11 (did he get them all playing 4th line?) and Iafallo got 11 but several came while he played up in the lineup. That was still only 25 among the 4 and less than that scored while they played 4th line. If they pot 30 this year it would be outstanding.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Loved the hip hipcheck on Bedard. I really think he and Sammy should round into a solid pair.

That sets us up for a 3rd pair of Ville and Milly - which stylistically could be a great fit as well.

Stan could be on the outside looking in again, and then have Fleury as injury depth. Not sure if he'll clear though.

If Fleury continues to play like he did last night I think he bumps Stan. Maybe he and Ville share 3LD.

So far I am not impressed with Miller but it is only 2 games. I expected more from him than we have seen so far.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Great two wins.

Second line has to be better. First line needs to be a lot better 5 on 5. Considering Villardi is playing 18 mins+ with our two best offensive players in all of the high leverage offensive situations, he has been invisible particularly at 5 on 5. Never touches the puck, soft defensively, not winning battles and not nearly himself on the PP. Going to need more from him.

3rd line was amazing in game 1, ok in game 2.

4th line has been strong

In Helly we trust.

EDIT: The number of egregious turnovers by 81 and 27 is concerning.

More so Ehlers last game. Can't remember as many turnover from 81.

We all saw the 2 games and can agree the second line is the weakest link and needs to get going.
They looked bad but lets remember they never played together and it was obvious with Ehlers give aways, Perfetti not shooting trying for the perfect pass and yes Perfetti almost scored but the goalie made a great save. The play with the fast break Perfetti looked bad (slow) because he was trying to figure out what his linemates were going to do.
Nice to see Scheifele get to 300 and game winner ... I'm glad they won only because I would have to read that 81 & 55 need to be broken up because they were on the ice for the Hawks goal. Yes they were on the ice BUT it was because of Pionk pinching in that lead to the goal not because of 81 & 55 that's why I don't believe in corsi ... eyes test always tells the truth.

The second line has never played together?

 

[Jet]

40 goals would be more than a "pretty good" 4th line. It would be epic.
Last year Kupari had none, Gus had 3, Barron had 11 (did he get them all playing 4th line?) and Iafallo got 11 but several came while he played up in the lineup. That was still only 25 among the 4 and less than that scored while they played 4th line. If they pot 30 this year it would be outstanding.

I dream big

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There was one play where his lack of speed was really poignant last night. He tried to break free for an odd man chance and got closed on so fast. I'm hoping part of that was just conditioning, and he can still find ways to be effective not being quite as fleet of foot but it was pretty disturbing

We frequently see here that poor skating by an 18 YO can be fixed by 21YO, or words to that effect. Sometimes it has proven to be true. Sometimes not. I wish Jets would prioritize skating as a strength from the players they draft. (and the players they pick up at the TD )

 

[Adam da bomb]

We all saw the 2 games and can agree the second line is the weakest link and needs to get going.
They looked bad but lets remember they never played together and it was obvious with Ehlers give aways, Perfetti not shooting trying for the perfect pass and yes Perfetti almost scored but the goalie made a great save. The play with the fast break Perfetti looked bad (slow) because he was trying to figure out what his linemates were going to do.
Nice to see Scheifele get to 300 and game winner ... I'm glad they won only because I would have to read that 81 & 55 need to be broken up because they were on the ice for the Hawks goal. Yes they were on the ice BUT it was because of Pionk pinching in that lead to the goal not because of 81 & 55 that's why I don't believe in corsi ... eyes test always tells the truth.

I don't even think it's on Pionk. Helly let in a goal he should have had as he was able to see it the whole way. That said, Helly also made a lot of great saves that stopped potential goals.

 

[Jet]

I don't even think it's on Pionk. Helly let in a goal he should have had as he was able to see it the whole way. That said, Helly also made a lot of great saves that stopped potential goals.

Yeah it's easy to blame Neal but he actually did what he was supposed to, there.

My question is where was the F that was supposed to be covering back?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah it's easy to blame Neal but he actually did what he was supposed to, there.

My question is where was the F that was supposed to be covering back?

Yes, but, it was a harmless shot and there was one d there so it wasn't an odd man rush. You can't stop the team from taking any shots. Therefore, KC maybe should have gone back more and if another forward had jumped the rush it would have been on him. Samberg took the man with the puck, the man shot it, it should have been a routine save, but, it went in.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How long are we going to fumble around with our ‘2nd’ line again this year? They look like a massive liability again, and in current state feel like a line that will get caved in post allstar break.

I don’t see them flipping ehlers and Connor long term (and this may not be the long term answer either for the perfetti line) - would you rather see some ahl reinforcements or is a significant trade still a necessity to get past the first round?

Too soon. If they are not much better after 10 games I think it will be time to explore the trade market - if it wasn't already in the off-season.

I don't see AHL reinforcements as a solution. Are you going to waive Perfetti or Ehlers?

 

[KingBogo]

4th line with about 10 minutes last night.

Crazy it took a decade to get the fourth more than 5 minutes/night.

For most of the last decade you wouldn't want the 4th line playing 10 minutes a night. Now that we have enough talent to spread across 4 lines they are capable of playing 10 -12 effective minutes.

 

[Gm0ney]

Loved the hip hipcheck on Bedard. I really think he and Sammy should round into a solid pair.

That sets us up for a 3rd pair of Ville and Milly - which stylistically could be a great fit as well.

Stan could be on the outside looking in again, and then have Fleury as injury depth. Not sure if he'll clear though.

4-54 are not off to an encouraging start.

 

[Weezeric]

Yes, but, it was a harmless shot and there was one d there so it wasn't an odd man rush. You can't stop the team from taking any shots. Therefore, KC maybe should have gone back more and if another forward had jumped the rush it would have been on him. Samberg took the man with the puck, the man shot it, it should have been a routine save, but, it went in.

The puck definitely deflected off of Samberg’s stick and changed direction.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We all saw the 2 games and can agree the second line is the weakest link and needs to get going.
They looked bad but lets remember they never played together and it was obvious with Ehlers give aways, Perfetti not shooting trying for the perfect pass and yes Perfetti almost scored but the goalie made a great save. The play with the fast break Perfetti looked bad (slow) because he was trying to figure out what his linemates were going to do.
Nice to see Scheifele get to 300 and game winner ... I'm glad they won only because I would have to read that 81 & 55 need to be broken up because they were on the ice for the Hawks goal. Yes they were on the ice BUT it was because of Pionk pinching in that lead to the goal not because of 81 & 55 that's why I don't believe in corsi ... eyes test always tells the truth.

I was with you right until your last sentence. Corsi doesn't make any attempt at analyzing individual plays, like your example. It depends on accumulating a very large dataset so that those individual play issues get taken care of. The next time Pionk will make a good play. 81 &/or 55 will make a bad one. In both cases, all 3 players will record a shot attempt against. After a few hundred shot attempts for and against the pattern will begin to emerge. All 3 players will have more shot attempts against than for.

The eye-test is notoriously unreliable. Besides the physical difficulty in accurately observing a game that happens as fast as hockey does, there is a lot of human psychology involved too. We all tend to notice certain kinds of events at the expense of others. We all have biases. Some of us are much better observers than others but we are all bad.

You can disbelieve Corsi all you want but it is simply counting things that actually happen. There is nothing fancy about it.

 

[bustamente]

For most of the last decade you wouldn't want the 4th line playing 10 minutes a night. Now that we have enough talent to spread across 4 lines they are capable of playing 10 -12 effective minutes.

They wanted a veteran laden team with skill across the board to be able to run 4 lines, small sample but so far so good, sure some are concerned about the second line I am not.

Scheif gonna make 500 goals? Will be 32 at the end of the season.. Seems like he will play till 39 years old at least.

Average 25 -30 goals and he has a chance unless he has a massive drop off in his late 30's. I would say yes if he tickles 35-40 goals in the next 3 years.

 

[Guardian17]

That's not their best performance but a win is a win.

Congratulations to Scheifele on his 300th career goal.

Runway with bonus footage.

 

[voyageur]

I was with you right until your last sentence. Corsi doesn't make any attempt at analyzing individual plays, like your example. It depends on accumulating a very large dataset so that those individual play issues get taken care of. The next time Pionk will make a good play. 81 &/or 55 will make a bad one. In both cases, all 3 players will record a shot attempt against. After a few hundred shot attempts for and against the pattern will begin to emerge. All 3 players will have more shot attempts against than for.

The eye-test is notoriously unreliable. Besides the physical difficulty in accurately observing a game that happens as fast as hockey does, there is a lot of human psychology involved too. We all tend to notice certain kinds of events at the expense of others. We all have biases. Some of us are much better observers than others but we are all bad.

You can disbelieve Corsi all you want but it is simply counting things that actually happen. There is nothing fancy about it.

Corsi is grossly unreliable too. You get offensive zone draws, you have better chances at scoring. Period. Science.

So far this year, we've seen Adam Lowry is getting hard matched against other team's best players. So there will be some ebb and flow in the statistics. Because great players should make plays. The quality of a shot has no real impact in that metric. Last night saw guys shoot for a save, just to get a faceoff, which the Jets were winning in. Hockey is so much more than just shots. If you have a good zone shift, where the opposition never leaves their end, that's a good shift, could result in an icing or a line change, that increases scoring chances. With or without a shot. It's definitely not as predictive as some would think.

I'm curious if Ehlers starts on Lowry's line next game. He had a good shift with them, resulting in a quality shot, from good zone entry, though I think one of his egregious turnover, in the offensive end, also came with them. So puck management is important there. But Nino can maybe give a big body to that 2nd or 3rd line if you will, the one that is struggling, that can have a measurable impact. Minnesota will be the best defense the Jets have faced this year.

 

[gojetsgo]

Corsi is grossly unreliable too. You get offensive zone draws, you have better chances at scoring. Period. Science.

So far this year, we've seen Adam Lowry is getting hard matched against other team's best players. So there will be some ebb and flow in the statistics. Because great players should make plays. The quality of a shot has no real impact in that metric. Last night saw guys shoot for a save, just to get a faceoff, which the Jets were winning in. Hockey is so much more than just shots. If you have a good zone shift, where the opposition never leaves their end, that's a good shift, could result in an icing or a line change, that increases scoring chances. With or without a shot. It's definitely not as predictive as some would think.

I'm curious if Ehlers starts on Lowry's line next game. He had a good shift with them, resulting in a quality shot, from good zone entry, though I think one of his egregious turnover, in the offensive end, also came with them. So puck management is important there. But Nino can maybe give a big body to that 2nd or 3rd line if you will, the one that is struggling, that can have a measurable impact. Minnesota will be the best defense the Jets have faced this year.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1845152553534882089

 

[dcypher]

I also liked the in house band Mach 10. I honestly thought they were going to sing just rock songs, but no, they did a Stevie Wonder jam and was impressed!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Corsi is grossly unreliable too. You get offensive zone draws, you have better chances at scoring. Period. Science.

So far this year, we've seen Adam Lowry is getting hard matched against other team's best players. So there will be some ebb and flow in the statistics. Because great players should make plays. The quality of a shot has no real impact in that metric. Last night saw guys shoot for a save, just to get a faceoff, which the Jets were winning in. Hockey is so much more than just shots. If you have a good zone shift, where the opposition never leaves their end, that's a good shift, could result in an icing or a line change, that increases scoring chances. With or without a shot. It's definitely not as predictive as some would think.

I'm curious if Ehlers starts on Lowry's line next game. He had a good shift with them, resulting in a quality shot, from good zone entry, though I think one of his egregious turnover, in the offensive end, also came with them. So puck management is important there. But Nino can maybe give a big body to that 2nd or 3rd line if you will, the one that is struggling, that can have a measurable impact. Minnesota will be the best defense the Jets have faced this year.

I don't claim Corsi is perfect. Far from it. Ozone draws will be reflected in better Corsi. Period. Science. Everything ends up being reflected in Corsi eventually. It is all about the sample size. But it says almost nothing about a single shot or a single play. It says little about a single player in a single game.

I don't like the idea of Ehlers on a checking line but since the Lowry line is the de facto 2nd line it might make sense. Nino on the Names line might also be a good idea. But what about leaving Ehlers with Names Nino and putting Perfetti on the Lowry line? His speed would better match his line mates there and he does play a decent defensive game. His playmaking might work well with Lowry/Apples.

Maybe that 3rd line just needs a little more time to get in sync but we can all see that something is needed. They were good together last year and they didn't get much time together in TC.

 

[raideralex99]

I don't claim Corsi is perfect. Far from it. Ozone draws will be reflected in better Corsi. Period. Science. Everything ends up being reflected in Corsi eventually. It is all about the sample size. But it says almost nothing about a single shot or a single play. It says little about a single player in a single game.

I don't like the idea of Ehlers on a checking line but since the Lowry line is the de facto 2nd line it might make sense. Nino on the Names line might also be a good idea. But what about leaving Ehlers with Names Nino and putting Perfetti on the Lowry line? His speed would better match his line mates there and he does play a decent defensive game. His playmaking might work well with Lowry/Apples.

Maybe that 3rd line just needs a little more time to get in sync but we can all see that something is needed. They were good together last year and they didn't get much time together in TC.

This is 100% true but what is funny is the corsi guy told us faceoffs aren't important.
I would like to see stats of faceoff wins on the PP & PK. I bet the good PP & PK teams win more faceoffs than they lose.

 

[Buffdog]

4-54 are not off to an encouraging start.

Are they being dragged down by 91-7-27?

Samberg- Pionk with xGF% of 25% while PNE is 12%

Oddly, Samberg - Pionk are actually net positive in goals at evens

Also, something about sample size

 

[bustamente]

I think all 3 of our defensive pairs are playing well enough so far after all we are 2-0 and our goalie has given up 1 goal. I think they play a part in letting Helle see the puck and getting the puck out of zone and keeping the Benny Hill moments to a minimum.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is 100% true but what is funny is the corsi guy told us faceoffs aren't important.
I would like to see stats of faceoff wins on the PP & PK. I bet the good PP & PK teams win more faceoffs than they lose.

I agree. But to be fair, he didn't quite say that. He said the difference between a good FO man and a bad one is overvalued, not unimportant. IIRC, he also said that they are more important on ST than at 5v5 and less important in the N zone than in either O zone or D zone.

Lets compare a weak FO man at 47.5% to a good one at 52.5%, on ST. A 5% difference. In a typical game there might be about 15 ST FO in a game, more or less. A few will be in the N zone. So lets say there are 12 left. 5% of 12 is .6. So we will be halfway through a second game before there is a difference of 1 FO won or lost between the 2 players. But neither of those players will have taken all of his team's ST FO. So we might need to play 4-5 games before that difference of 1 FO shows up.

None of that says that 1 FO in a teams O or D zone won't be important. Each FO is a distinct play that has high potential to be a difference maker.

 

[Gm0ney]

Are they being dragged down by 91-7-27?

Samberg- Pionk with xGF% of 25% while PNE is 12%

Oddly, Samberg - Pionk are actually net positive in goals at evens

Also, something about sample size

Oh yeah, it's still early days...and they were decent together last season in a larger sample. But so far the other pairings have looked much better.

 

[Gm0ney]

I think all 3 of our defensive pairs are playing well enough so far after all we are 2-0 and our goalie has given up 1 goal. I think they play a part in letting Helle see the puck and getting the puck out of zone and keeping the Benny Hill moments to a minimum.

Hellebuyck's had a really good start. If Comrie was in net for the first two games the Jets would be 0-2 right now.

Pionk alone has been on the ice for 57% of the Jets total xGA (all situations) so far. 54% of 5v5 xGA on the top 3 pairs has been while 4-54 were on the ice (in just 34% of the 5v5 TOI).

If the Jets didn't have elite goaltending, Pionk would be hated more than Brad Lauer around here.