Post-Game Talk: Jets 1 - Avs 0 Another F N Bagel

[Tom ServoMST3K]

The shorthand method is to look at team SH% and SV% (and PDO).

The Jets are currently 2nd in SH% and 1st in SV%.

They're on a crazy run and - unpopular opinion - this too shall pass.

I specifically mean contained within a single game - who benefits from a goalie-ing, and how often throughout a season - you'd also have to normalize for record.

maybe I should actually take this project on so I can learn to use Pivot tables in excel XD

Obviously the Jets are on an insane pdo heater - impossible to not be in a 13-1 streak.

 

[Moloch]

So you think that we can compete talent vs talent with the Avs come out on top without factoring Helle in?

How do you "be better" than the 2nd best forward and best defensemen in the world?

Nope, I think you're reading into my post a bit too much. All im saying is that it would be better to use this game as a learning experience vs. moving on and forgetting that it even happened. Theres a chance we see them in the playoffs again.

 

[surixon]

So you think that we can compete talent vs talent with the Avs come out on top without factoring Helle in?

How do you "be better" than the 2nd best forward and best defensemen in the world?

The key would be to have our depth beat their depth. That is how Dallas beat them last year. It would be how we would have to approach it as well. One of the biggest issues we had last year is our depth didn't show up in the playoffs and got killed by their depth.

 

[Jets 31]

Minnesota is 9-2-2 for 20 points, that's a great record and start to the season BUT they are second place to us 6 points behind, frigging unreal.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There's a couple of d-men who saved goals on rebounds and tap ins. Team game.

There was at least once when a Dman played goalie pretty well.
Pionk's sv% is 100. (pretty sure it was Pionk)

 

[Buffdog]

The key would be to have our depth beat their depth. That is how Dallas beat them last year. It would be how we would have to approach it as well. One of the biggest issues we had last year is our depth didn't show up in the playoffs and got killed by their depth.

Yup. As I've said, to beat them we need our depth to beat their depth and Helle to beat their goalie. Neither happened last year

 

[Flair Hay]

Agreed 100%. I hate to say it because I HATE it when other teams do it to us, but maybe we have to run some picks in the d zone. Pretty sure Dallas does a lot of that IIRC. Take away lanes that they use to pressure the puck

In the meantime, I still think it's delusional to think that we'll outshoot and outchance a team with that kind of talent regularly. I'd say that we have a better chance of Helle stealing 4 games out of 7 from them than us actually winning a matchup vs Mackinnon 4 games put of 7

If we're gonna beat them in the playoffs, there will be a whole lot of bending and hopefully not much breaking


Helle isn't a part of "us"?

He will be pissed to hear that lol

Very valuable point in here. Interference wins championships. Running picks without taking penalties is a skill, more of our guys need to learn it. Stastny was a master of creating space for teammates this way in the ozone.

 

[raideralex99]

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[Mortimer Snerd]

Awesome analysis. I wish we spent more time on this forum actually breaking down play rather than bickering over stats and numbers. The problem is that I think that some of the guys who just look at stats have never played the game and can't understand what's going on out there on a detailed level (whichvof course leads to the numbers that they bitch about)

Its interesting that you noticed the zone exits like that... so did I. In April, most of the exits to start the series were uncontrolled... our d were getting to the puck and just turning around and lobbing it into the neutral zone which allowed the Avs to regroup and counterattack on the rush, which they're deadly at

As the series went on, there was a more concerted effort for controlled exits.

The adjustment that it looks like Arniel made last night was to have the D read pressure and exit the zone with the puck if they had no pressure or to stretch it up to the forwards in the neutral zone if they did. The idea being that the F in the neutral zone gets his stick on the puck on the other side of the red line to send it deep to negate the icing. That's forcing the Avs all the way back into their zone to regroup instead of coming in waves from the neutral zone

The Avs were also pinching their D aggressively most of rhe night. Sending that F early makes them respect that and forces them to back off, relieving that second wave of puck pressure

Y'know you are free to post that kind of analysis just as much as you want. I'm sure you will find knowledgeable people here who will be happy to discuss the X's and O's with you. That might even include some of the same people who like analyzing the game statistically.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed 100%. I hate to say it because I HATE it when other teams do it to us, but maybe we have to run some picks in the d zone. Pretty sure Dallas does a lot of that IIRC. Take away lanes that they use to pressure the puck

In the meantime, I still think it's delusional to think that we'll outshoot and outchance a team with that kind of talent regularly. I'd say that we have a better chance of Helle stealing 4 games out of 7 from them than us actually winning a matchup vs Mackinnon 4 games put of 7

If we're gonna beat them in the playoffs, there will be a whole lot of bending and hopefully not much breaking


Helle isn't a part of "us"?

He will be pissed to hear that lol

We can't match their top end talent. But I think we can blunt it with the right game plan. We beat them 4 out of 4 last regular season. For the PO, I think they out game planned us. We were unable to adapt on the fly.

There have been some good/interesting suggestions made here. I'm sure Arniel has made similar observations. This game shows that we can't have a one size fits all style of play. We need to play to our strengths but also adjust for the opponents strengths.

The good thing about Jets (skaters) play last night was that they didn't fold under pressure. They kept playing/working hard. So we, and they, got to see what did and what did not work against the Avs. I'm hoping they will adjust effectively before the next game against Avs. And also any other team that can play like that - if there are any who can do it that well.

 

[Buffdog]

Y'know you are free to post that kind of analysis just as much as you want. I'm sure you will find knowledgeable people here who will be happy to discuss the X's and O's with you. That might even include some of the same people who like analyzing the game statistically.

That would be awesome, since it's those X's and O's that lead to whatever numbers end up in the spreadsheets

I know that people here think I'm "anti-advanced stats", but I'm not at all. I think that they're a good first step when trying to figure out why something is or isn't working. What I AM against is stopping there. There's a next step... that involves watching the game to figure out what's happening

An example I'll use is "According to xGF%, Connor and Schief lose their matchups therefore they're bad defensively together".... ok, but WHY? As in specifically? When I started watching, I noticed that a lot of it came from them failing zone exits, leading to getting hemmed in and giving up multiple chances. That also helps to explain the "that line takes longer shifts" narrative. It's also at least partially why Schiefs numbers are so much better with Ehlers. He's a zone exit wizard

Those kind of discussions are so much more useful than "the coach is a dinosaur because he doesn't deploy these guys together"

 

[NA Hockey]

That was a nice setup by Nino to Namestnikov? at the end of the 1st that should have went in. Funny that it was Perfetti who sat for Connor if I am not mistaken. The 2nd PP has to have close to the same scoring % as the 1st unit after 14 games, based on ice time. They work the puck down low better than the 1st unit, which works the puck up high more, from my p.o.v.

When the puck went down the ice all of PP1 changed except for Connor. He went in on the zone entry with pp2 and pp2 gained the zone and set up and he stayed on. I don't think he was expecting his group to change and had built up speed through the neutral zone. This wasn't a "coaching" decision, you can see Perfetti with his leg over the bench expecting to change with the whole group as KC goes by. Coaches aren't going to yell at or bench their top scorer for going off script on one PP.

 

[Jet]

Nope, I think you're reading into my post a bit too much. All im saying is that it would be better to use this game as a learning experience vs. moving on and forgetting that it even happened. Theres a chance we see them in the playoffs again.

Well the good news is we play them again so we have opportunities to employ new strategies.

 

[voyageur]

That would be awesome, since it's those X's and O's that lead to whatever numbers end up in the spreadsheets

I know that people here think I'm "anti-advanced stats", but I'm not at all. I think that they're a good first step when trying to figure out why something is or isn't working. What I AM against is stopping there. There's a next step... that involves watching the game to figure out what's happening

An example I'll use is "According to xGF%, Connor and Schief lose their matchups therefore they're bad defensively together".... ok, but WHY? As in specifically? When I started watching, I noticed that a lot of it came from them failing zone exits, leading to getting hemmed in and giving up multiple chances. That also helps to explain the "that line takes longer shifts" narrative. It's also at least partially why Schiefs numbers are so much better with Ehlers. He's a zone exit wizard

Those kind of discussions are so much more useful than "the coach is a dinosaur because he doesn't deploy these guys together"

I think there is also the problem that Scheif and Connor get tunnel vision when they do get in the zone, and then have to defend from trying to make too cute of plays. Ehlers almost got burned last night with a real bad clear from behind his own net. His best chance came from Appleton coming off the bench on a line change,, following Scheifele in his zone entry. I think Arniel trusts KC more than Ehlers defensively, at least you get that sense from the way he speaks. I wouldn't expect last night's move to be permanent.

 

[NA Hockey]

How successful has the 2nd unit been prior to that?

PP2 has scored 7 goals I believe

Nino - 1
AI - 1
Perfetti - 3
Pionk - 2


PP1 has scored 9 goals

Villardi - 1
Scheif 1
JMo - 1
Ehlers - 2
Connor - 4
Morrissey - 1

PP 1 has played a lot more than PP2 including all of the 5 on 3's and 4 on 3's

 

[bustamente]

The Jets can't become complacent even with their record that's how losing streaks happen so they have a few things that they need to clean up as the season goes on. Benny Hill d creeped into last nights game but did not cost them. Getting the puck out on the first opportunity and not giving the other 2nd chances will limited the other team scoring chances. Last ones a bit of nit picking but when you have a open net you gotta score, looking at you Von Raschke

 

[GNP]

So you think that we can compete talent vs talent with the Avs come out on top without factoring Helle in?

How do you "be better" than the 2nd best forward and best defensemen in the world?

I'd say Mackinnon is the best forward in the league. He has the speed and great scoring hands, like McDavid, but he also has "power" to go along with it. I would take Mackinnon over McDavid myself, but I'm sure many may disagree. It's a lot harder to knock Mackinnon off the puck, than it is to knock McDavid off. McDavid is about speed, and great hands - very little power. That Mackinnon is a beast.

 

[Buffdog]

I'd say Mackinnon is the best forward in the league. He has the speed and great scoring hands, like McDavid, but he also has "power" to go along with it. I would take Mackinnon over McDavid myself, but I'm sure many may disagree. It's a lot harder to knock Mackinnon off the puck, than it is to knock McDavid off. McDavid is about speed, and great hands - very little power. That Mackinnon is a beast.

Laying the body on McDavid every chance you get goes a long way to shutting him down. With Mack he's such a unit that you just bounce off him. While I'm not sure that I agree that he's "better" than McDavid, he does present a whole different set of problems with regards to trying to neutralize him

 

[Adam da bomb]

The key would be to have our depth beat their depth. That is how Dallas beat them last year. It would be how we would have to approach it as well. One of the biggest issues we had last year is our depth didn't show up in the playoffs and got killed by their depth.

It's a fallacy with the team that Heinola or Fleury should be in against a speedier team.

When the puck went down the ice all of PP1 changed except for Connor. He went in on the zone entry with pp2 and pp2 gained the zone and set up and he stayed on. I don't think he was expecting his group to change and had built up speed through the neutral zone. This wasn't a "coaching" decision, you can see Perfetti with his leg over the bench expecting to change with the whole group as KC goes by. Coaches aren't going to yell at or bench their top scorer for going off script on one PP.

They have in the past. Toronto has benched all their stars.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That would be awesome, since it's those X's and O's that lead to whatever numbers end up in the spreadsheets

I know that people here think I'm "anti-advanced stats", but I'm not at all. I think that they're a good first step when trying to figure out why something is or isn't working. What I AM against is stopping there. There's a next step... that involves watching the game to figure out what's happening

An example I'll use is "According to xGF%, Connor and Schief lose their matchups therefore they're bad defensively together".... ok, but WHY? As in specifically? When I started watching, I noticed that a lot of it came from them failing zone exits, leading to getting hemmed in and giving up multiple chances. That also helps to explain the "that line takes longer shifts" narrative. It's also at least partially why Schiefs numbers are so much better with Ehlers. He's a zone exit wizard

Those kind of discussions are so much more useful than "the coach is a dinosaur because he doesn't deploy these guys together"

Agree 100%
Well, maybe 98%. Not sure which comes first, chicken or egg. Maybe watch, analyze and then watch again, or some more.

But honestly, I don't see much of "the coach is a dinosaur because he doesn't deploy these guys together". I see (and sometimes write) head scratching. Why doesn't the coach do it differently, despite all of this evidence?

Your observation helps explain why the stats show what they do. That doesn't change the fact that Scheif and KC is a poor combination and Scheif Ehlers is a good one. So we are still left wondering why it must be the way it is.

So far this season Connor (and to a lesser extent, Scheifele) is playing much better and it is showing up in their stats and in the win column. I hope they can keep it up.

Something I think I have seen this year is KC carrying the puck more than he did in the past. Not so much on zone exits, but on zone entries. It is another addition to that lines weapons.

PP2 has scored 7 goals I believe

Nino - 1
AI - 1
Perfetti - 3
Pionk - 2


PP1 has scored 9 goals

Villardi - 1
Scheif 1
JMo - 1
Ehlers - 2
Connor - 4
Morrissey - 1

PP 1 has played a lot more than PP2 including all of the 5 on 3's and 4 on 3's

That's about what I suspected. They have been effective, so that deployment of KC is not really necessary. Not sure why it was done that time.

 

[Buffdog]

Agree 100%
Well, maybe 98%. Not sure which comes first, chicken or egg. Maybe watch, analyze and then watch again, or some more.

But honestly, I don't see much of "the coach is a dinosaur because he doesn't deploy these guys together". I see (and sometimes write) head scratching. Why doesn't the coach do it differently, despite all of this evidence?

Your observation helps explain why the stats show what they do. That doesn't change the fact that Scheif and KC is a poor combination and Scheif Ehlers is a good one. So we are still left wondering why it must be the way it is.

So far this season Connor (and to a lesser extent, Scheifele) is playing much better and it is showing up in their stats and in the win column. I hope they can keep it up.

Something I think I have seen this year is KC carrying the puck more than he did in the past. Not so much on zone exits, but on zone entries. It is another addition to that lines weapons.



That's about what I suspected. They have been effective, so that deployment of KC is not really necessary. Not sure why it was done that time.

There's less "the coach is a dinosaur" this year, but it was the prevailing narrative last year

As for the chicken and the egg, the play comes first and the stats describe the play. The usefulness is being able to offer solution to a problem (once it's been identified) aside from "split them up and put Schief with Ehlers"

 

[surixon]

Agree 100%
Well, maybe 98%. Not sure which comes first, chicken or egg. Maybe watch, analyze and then watch again, or some more.

But honestly, I don't see much of "the coach is a dinosaur because he doesn't deploy these guys together". I see (and sometimes write) head scratching. Why doesn't the coach do it differently, despite all of this evidence?

Your observation helps explain why the stats show what they do. That doesn't change the fact that Scheif and KC is a poor combination and Scheif Ehlers is a good one. So we are still left wondering why it must be the way it is.

So far this season Connor (and to a lesser extent, Scheifele) is playing much better and it is showing up in their stats and in the win column. I hope they can keep it up.

Something I think I have seen this year is KC carrying the puck more than he did in the past. Not so much on zone exits, but on zone entries. It is another addition to that lines weapons.



That's about what I suspected. They have been effective, so that deployment of KC is not really necessary. Not sure why it was done that time.

It wasn't planned imo, he just got caught on as they turned it back up prior to he could switch off so he stayed on. Line one does it all the time if they gain the zone near the end of a shift to try to get offense 5 on 5. Another reason for their lengthy shifts. If it was planned it wouldn't have been at the expense of pp2's best player in Perfetti.

 

[Jaytee]

I'd say Mackinnon is the best forward in the league. He has the speed and great scoring hands, like McDavid, but he also has "power" to go along with it. I would take Mackinnon over McDavid myself, but I'm sure many may disagree. It's a lot harder to knock Mackinnon off the puck, than it is to knock McDavid off. McDavid is about speed, and great hands - very little power. That Mackinnon is a beast.

I agree, and I'd compare it to the '80s Oilers with Gretzky and Messier. When they were separated, Gretzky never won another Stanley Cup, but Messier won again...twice.

Gretzky got the fame and scoring records, but at that time, if I'd had to opportunity to pick one player to build a team around, it would have been Messier.

McDavid scores, but Mackinnon wins.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There's less "the coach is a dinosaur" this year, but it was the prevailing narrative last year

As for the chicken and the egg, the play comes first and the stats describe the play. The usefulness is being able to offer solution to a problem (once it's been identified) aside from "split them up and put Schief with Ehlers"

So .... what's the solution to the zone exits problem (or whatever is the root cause)?

It wasn't planned imo, he just got caught on as they turned it back up prior to he could switch off so he stayed on. Line one does it all the time if they gain the zone near the end of a shift to try to get offense 5 on 5. Another reason for their lengthy shifts. If it was planned it wouldn't have been at the expense of pp2's best player in Perfetti.

Yup. It does seem odd that he stayed on for the full 2 minutes though. But odd doesn't have to mean anything.

 

[surixon]

So .... what's the solution to the zone exits problem (or whatever is the root cause)?



Yup. It does seem odd that he stayed on for the full 2 minutes though. But odd doesn't have to mean anything.

I think we've mostly seen that this year. Arniel has the team better spaced in our end offering much better support to the dmen so we are able to make quick short passes to get it out.

Under Bones, he liked to play things safer so his preferred plan was to put it up the boards where a winger could chip it out and we'd have a player skate onto the puck. Worst case scenario is there is a board battle. It's not a real surprise that KC who isn't the best board player would struggle with that scheme. Maurice had a very simple breakout scheme as well his last number of years here, likely because he didn't trust the rag tag collection of dmen we had for most of it.

The new scheme gets him the puck more often then not in full stride and it allows him to make plays.