Value of: Jesperi Kotkaniemi

[SoundAndFury]

In a vacuum, maybe not.

For a team up against the cap that has Cup aspirations like Carolina, it's fair to ask if that $4.8M is wisely spent on him.

Exactly this. Leafs fans are acting like Kampf is sinking the ship and have gotten rid of multiple 3 mil Ds at this point because they are overpaid by around a million. On most teams, Kotkaniemi wouldn't be discussed. He is just because of the way Canes got him and the position they are in.

It was the same way with the Kuznetsov trade as well.

 

[Bell Centre Hotdog]

Matheson
Dvorak - retain to make it work cap wise.
2nd round pick 2025
2nd round pick 2026

For

Kotkaniemi
Suzuki
1st round pick 2025

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Matheson
Dvorak - retain to make it work cap wise.
2nd round pick 2025
2nd round pick 2026

For

Kotkaniemi
Suzuki
1st round pick 2025

This is terrible for Carolina.

Ignoring the fact that their is a salary cap, the Hurricanes have no need for Matheson, and this would leave a gaping hole for them at 2C.

Carolina would want to improve their roster in a trade, they aren't trying to tank - ask yourself why they would trade their young 2C in Kotkaniemi for an older, worse player in Dvorak (negative value asset) and two 2nd round picks? Let alone add a first to that?

 

[Negan4Coach]

He’s contract seems buyout friendly, although insanely long cap hit would be under a mil every season. I wouldn’t mind the Flyers taking a chance on him if Carolina was willing to attach a pick to him. Maybe something like Jesperi and a 1st for Frost?

There are few Canes fans as disgusted as I am with his contract, but even I wouldn't support giving up a 1st to get rid of him, lol. I'd prefer a buyout, but if not, just let him stay where he is at. At least he plays with physicality.

 

[Bell Centre Hotdog]

This is terrible for Carolina.

Ignoring the fact that their is a salary cap, the Hurricanes have no need for Matheson, and this would leave a gaping hole for them at 2C.

Carolina would want to improve their roster in a trade, they aren't trying to tank - ask yourself why they would trade their young 2C in Kotkaniemi for an older, worse player in Dvorak (negative value asset) and two 2nd round picks? Let alone add a first to that?

Well can we get some context then?

Because you have Canes fans on here talking about buying him out and having dead cap on the books. Saying his value is not great and such then there’s a post like this contradicting those statements.

Kotkaniemi has term left after this year. Dvorak is to plug the hole at center for at least this year. He is a UFA. Salary can be retained up to half.

Matheson is there as they have the same cap hit except Matheson is short term with another year after this. Orlov is on his final year of his contract I thought Matheson would add depth and offensive addition to the backend.

If the Canes were to go as far as I think they can, their 1st rounder is going to be 29-32.

The 2nd rounders the Habs offer would be early second rounders potentially.

Suzuki is an add in, wanted him to play with his brother. He’d get an opportunity with the big club in Montreal I believe.

So if this is bad can you just provide context where actual Canes fans sit then.

Are they talking about buying Kotkaniemi out or is he of value? It’s a bit confusing if you’re looking at packages then if he’s not considered a buy out and has value.

 

[Chrispy]

Well can we get some context then?

Because you have Canes fans on here talking about buying him out and having dead cap on the books. Saying his value is not great and such then there’s a post like this contradicting those statements.

Kotkaniemi has term left after this year. Dvorak is to plug the hole at center for at least this year. He is a UFA. Salary can be retained up to half.

Matheson is there as they have the same cap hit except Matheson is short term with another year after this. Orlov is on his final year of his contract I thought Matheson would add depth and offensive addition to the backend.

If the Canes were to go as far as I think they can, their 1st rounder is going to be 29-32.

The 2nd rounders the Habs offer would be early second rounders potentially.

Suzuki is an add in, wanted him to play with his brother. He’d get an opportunity with the big club in Montreal I believe.

So if this is bad can you just provide context where actual Canes fans sit then.

Are they talking about buying Kotkaniemi out or is he of value? It’s a bit confusing if you’re looking at packages then if he’s not considered a buy out and has value.

Carolina can always buy him out if they have to. The buyout is cheap enough (841K per year) that you can survive on 99% of the cap easily.

What you are missing is that cheap buyout means there's no need to dump him at a loss. And when you have teams like Nashville and Calgary actively looking for young centers, there's no reason to think Carolina would have to take a loss or eat a portion of the contract if they choose to move Kotkaniemi.

If they are told they have to take a loss or eat a portion of the contract and they still want him gone, they buy Kotkaniemi out. That's the part you are missing in this: the buyout is the emergency move. The buyout option prevents them from having to make the trade you propose.

 

[KevinRedkey]

What about something around Mika Zibanejad in the off-season?

Note: CAR obviously adds. I just mean as a base. And I'm a fan of neither team so I have no stock here.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well can we get some context then?

Because you have Canes fans on here talking about buying him out and having dead cap on the books. Saying his value is not great and such then there’s a post like this contradicting those statements.

Kotkaniemi has term left after this year. Dvorak is to plug the hole at center for at least this year. He is a UFA. Salary can be retained up to half.

Matheson is there as they have the same cap hit except Matheson is short term with another year after this. Orlov is on his final year of his contract I thought Matheson would add depth and offensive addition to the backend.

If the Canes were to go as far as I think they can, their 1st rounder is going to be 29-32.

The 2nd rounders the Habs offer would be early second rounders potentially.

Suzuki is an add in, wanted him to play with his brother. He’d get an opportunity with the big club in Montreal I believe.

So if this is bad can you just provide context where actual Canes fans sit then.

Are they talking about buying Kotkaniemi out or is he of value? It’s a bit confusing if you’re looking at packages then if he’s not considered a buy out and has value.

There would be plenty of teams interested in Kotkaniemi at $4.8M. He's a young, responsible middle 6 5v5 center who brings a lot to the game that doesn't always show up on the scoresheet.

I don't think many people fully appreciate just how incredibly difficult this league can be for young centers. The majority of bigger and/or 2 way centers don't end up hitting approaching their offensive potential until their mid to late 20s, and are often pretty underwhelming between the ages of 18-23.

Look at some of the names below - these were all highly regarded prospects at one point, and nearly all of them were questioned as busts/disappointments at one point or another between the ages of 18-23:
Thompson
D Strome
Vilardi
Mittlestadt
Bennett
Zibanejad
Eriksson Ek
Couturier
Hischier
Miller

Kotkaniemi just turned 24, so it's very unlikely that we've seen what he's fully capable of at this point.

 

[Chrispy]

What about something around Mika Zibanejad in the off-season?

Note: CAR obviously adds. I just mean as a base. And I'm a fan of neither team so I have no stock here.

If there's one thing Carolina has largely avoided, it's been expensive long-term contracts to aging players.

The only exception has been Brent Burns who is a major exception in the league in terms of his fitness level, and even then Carolina was able to get him at $5.28M AAV and giving up almost nothing of value in return.

Tulsky is likely to model out a decline for Zibanejad that won't make him worth the $8.5M for the next 5 years until Zibanejad is 37. I am sure RBA would love to have him but I doubt Tulsky signs off on it.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

What about something around Mika Zibanejad in the off-season?

Note: CAR obviously adds. I just mean as a base. And I'm a fan of neither team so I have no stock here.

There's really no reason for Carolina to bail the rangers out of that contract. Zib has negative value IMO.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

If there's one thing Carolina has largely avoided, it's been expensive long-term contracts to aging players.

The only exception has been Brent Burns who is a major exception in the league in terms of his fitness level, and even then Carolina was able to get him at $5.28M AAV and giving up almost nothing of value in return.

Tulsky is likely to model out a decline for Zibanejad that won't make him worth the $8.5M for the next 5 years until Zibanejad is 37. I am sure RBA would love to have him but I doubt Tulsky signs off on it.

It's funny because the Canes don't have a particularly young team (they're actually tied for the 8th oldest at an average age of 29). The Canes have done a really good job at finding guys with games that age well (notably Staal and Burns, and they're gambling that Slavin is the same) and, most importantly, locking them in at friendly cap rates. They also snoop around player categories that are under-appreciated (the Martinook types) to get an edge on the competition. What the Canes don't do is buy too deeply into UFA hype and pay a guy like Zibanejad more than he is worth right before the returns start to diminish.

 

[robbieberns]

This season Kotkaniemi has succeeded spectacularly as a role player, with that role being someone who plays a simple and responsible game and doing what needs to be done to enable Necas going off every night. Until that changes he’s doing a bang up job at the moment and I’ve got no problem with keeping him around.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

This season Kotkaniemi has succeeded spectacularly as a role player, with that role being someone who plays a simple and responsible game and doing what needs to be done to enable Necas going off every night. Until that changes he’s doing a bang up job at the moment and I’ve got no problem with keeping him around.

There's a certain crowd of folks who expect that elite teams have to have a stereotypically point-producing 2C like Hertl/Horvat/Trocheck in order to have a sufficient center lineup. Kotkaniemi's primary value as a player is as a defensive center, which cuts against the grain that traditional teams look for in a top-6. As it turns out, it's a pretty great setup for an extremely puck-dominant, play-driving winger like Necas.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Kotkaniemi looks like he's starting to come into his own in terms of physical maturity. He looks faster and stronger this year - a few times he's been flying through the neutral zone so fast that I wasn't even sure it was him. And his hits have felt heavier than ever.

He's never going to be an elite offensive player, but he's become really good at bringing up the rear - winning possession defensively and moving the puck up to speedy transition wingers. He creates a lot of offense indirectly without always getting on the scoresheet.

His game reminds me a bit of Sam Bennett's. He's not quite as skilled or physical, but he's a reliable 2 way center who can help transport the puck to his more offensive minded wingers.

 

[FerrisRox]

This is terrible for Carolina.

Ignoring the fact that their is a salary cap, the Hurricanes have no need for Matheson, and this would leave a gaping hole for them at 2C.

Let me preface this by saying: I do not endorse this trade and do not want Kotkaniemi back in Montreal, period.

However:

The difference between Dvorak and Kotkaniemi is four points.

Gee, I wonder if Dvorak might have more points if he played with Necas?

I don't see how the Canes would suddenly have a "gaping hole" if they swapped one for the other.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Let me preface this by saying: I do not endorse this trade and do not want Kotkaniemi back in Montreal, period.

However:

The difference between Dvorak and Kotkaniemi is four points.

Gee, I wonder if Dvorak might have more points if he played with Necas?

I don't see how the Canes would suddenly have a "gaping hole" if they swapped one for the other.

Because there's a lot more to evaluating players than counting their points. Dvorak would not be an adequate replacement for Kotkaniemi on their 2nd line because he's much weaker defensively, less physical, and much worse in terms of driving possession.

 

[FerrisRox]

Because there's a lot more to evaluating players than counting their points. Dvorak would not be an adequate replacement for Kotkaniemi on their 2nd line because he's much weaker defensively, less physical, and much worse in terms of driving possession.

If Kotkaniemi is much better than Dvorak defensively that would mean he has improved enormously in that regard since leaving Montreal.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If Kotkaniemi is much better than Dvorak defensively that would mean he has improved enormously in that regard since leaving Montreal.

I mean yeah, most centers improve a ton between ages 20 and 24. Not many 20 year old centers are even average defensively.

 

[FinLurker]

I am an old fart. I still remember these exact same discussions when stat watchers were expecting Jordan Staal to produce points when he was the second line center. Then there was Trocheck for a while and now it is Kotkaniemi.

If we look at Canes second line, we see that Necas is the line driver and as a playmaking winger, he needs the puck a lot. Necas would like to be a center, but RBA doesnt trust his defensive capabilities. So he needs defensively responsible center and winger who does the dirty work on his line to meet RBA's defensive standards. Like Anisimov, Handzus or sometimes even Toews for Patrick Kane in Chicago. If I recall right, those were pretty good teams.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

Wow - I mean Kotkaniemi has obviously had a fairly turbulent NHL career thus far, but a lot of the comments especially early on in this thread suggest people really will go out of their way to spew old narratives just for likes

Right now this season, Kotkaniemi's body language looks more confident and he is playing just like it. We'll see if he keeps it up for the duration of that contract, but he's been more than fine and the Canes have been happy with his overall play

People really are that insecure about their own teams to come and dunk on a player they clearly know nothing about

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Wow - I mean Kotkaniemi has obviously had a fairly turbulent NHL career thus far, but a lot of the comments especially early on in this thread suggest people really will go out of their way to spew old narratives just for likes

Right now this season, Kotkaniemi's body language looks more confident and he is playing just like it. We'll see if he keeps it up for the duration of that contract, but he's been more than fine and the Canes have been happy with his overall play

People really are that insecure about their own teams to come and dunk on a player they clearly know nothing about

There are definitely a fair share of Canes fans who have been more than underwhelmed with Koko since the offer sheet and that is totally warranted, but I haven't seen anyone in sky is falling panic mode about it and this is for a few reasons.

1. He's still young. He's 24 years old and while he has a lot of NHL games under his belt you can basically throw away his time in MTL with how poorly he was managed. Coming to the Canes is a different system and situation from just about any other team in the league and even season vets have had longer learning curves in order to fit in properly.

2. While his play has been up and down overall, he has shown 10-20 game stretches where he's played confident, as you mentioned, as been very impactful. He's playing absolutely fine right now but we will need to see if he can keep it up.

3. The contract was signed with the idea that he could possibly become a 2C but if he ends up being a Staal replacement at 3C it's absolutely fine for the money as this is a role that Carolina prioritizes and with the cap rising $4.8m is very much 3rd line money

4. As has been mentioned a million times, if it absolutely blows up then we can buy him out after this season for less than $900k per year, which again for the rising cap, is extremely minute.

Has the offer sheet and contract worked out perfectly? No, but it would probably grade out as a C or C+ right now but with a lot of outs and options for it to improve.

TLDR version is Canes fans aren't super concerned and Koko wouldn't be moved unless it's an actual hockey move to improve the club not a cap dump play.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

TLDR version is Canes fans are super concerned and Koko wouldn't be moved unless it's an actual hockey move to improve the club not a cap dump play.

I think you meant aren't.

 

[Jaska]

I mostly follow Finnish players. That being said, I think a very good comparable would be Anton Lundell (Flo). Neither cheats on defence to get points.

 

[tarheelhockey]

One thing I’ve noticed about Kotkaniemi this season is that he’s really simplified his game offensively. He’s not out there trying to “make plays”, he’s just making the simple conservative pass to the next guy in the sequence. And when he plays that way, he’s really consistently good at succeeding at those simple plays.

That doesn’t sound like much, but the league is absolutely full of guys who want to make everything a no-look saucer pass, or fake a pass and try to cut into the slot, or whatever. You get a lot of situations where an easy play turns into a broken play. Kotkaniemi is playing within his abilities and willingly acting as a cog in the system.

The results speak for themselves. His line with Necas and Robinson has absolutely blown up. The Canes as a whole are putting up monster xGF/xGA to suggest that while a Necas hot streak is part of it, the underlying numbers are also really good. It comes down to Brind’Amour having installed a specific game plan, the front office having Moneyballed a roster that can execute that game plan, and the players having bought into the idea that they just need to follow the plan and good things will happen. Well, here we are, good things are happening. Kotkaniemi is one of the key parts of that success in that he’s not attempting to be some hot shot, he’s just maintaining his role to the benefit of his team.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

One thing I’ve noticed about Kotkaniemi this season is that he’s really simplified his game offensively. He’s not out there trying to “make plays”, he’s just making the simple conservative pass to the next guy in the sequence. And when he plays that way, he’s really consistently good at succeeding at those simple plays.

That doesn’t sound like much, but the league is absolutely full of guys who want to make everything a no-look saucer pass, or fake a pass and try to cut into the slot, or whatever. You get a lot of situations where an easy play turns into a broken play. Kotkaniemi is playing within his abilities and willingly acting as a cog in the system.

The results speak for themselves. His line with Necas and Robinson has absolutely blown up. The Canes as a whole are putting up monster xGF/xGA to suggest that while a Necas hot streak is part of it, the underlying numbers are also really good. It comes down to Brind’Amour having installed a specific game plan, the front office having Moneyballed a roster that can execute that game plan, and the players having bought into the idea that they just need to follow the plan and good things will happen. Well, here we are, good things are happening. Kotkaniemi is one of the key parts of that success in that he’s not attempting to be some hot shot, he’s just maintaining his role to the benefit of his team.

Absolutely. Kotkaniemi is not a super skilled guy out there. But he is able to make simple plays and make space due to his size and physicality. He's more opportunistic than a good creator. The line is hot right now entirely due to Necas, but Kotkaniemi is an important part of playing to Necas's strengths. You can credit 80% of that line being great due to Necas being at a Hart level right now, but it's also true that Kotkaniemi looks improved. I would like him spend some offseasons working on his shot. If he could get a faster release I could see him getting to 20-25 goals.