Value of: Jesperi Kotkaniemi

[bud12]

Is Caufield not a good enough linemate to produce with?

Kotkaniemi has essentially the same 5v5 p/60 numbers as Jarvis over that span. You know, his teammate.

Is there a new league where only 2 players are on the ice? Last time I looked, they were 5 skaters excluding goalies.Last year stats, really the same kind of team . And funny you used the last 4years. What about the last 2 years where you know, Suzuki started playing with Caufield.
Oh, and since people here like to bring number without context and reflection, in the last 2y, kotka his on pair with my boy Pezzetta and over the hill Gally. Who's the better player? I don't know!!!

 

[malcb33]

Those are over the course of 4 seasons.....

Maybe you should read more carefully before calling me disingenuous.

Yeah, you're right, my bad.

 

[HabsQC]

20$

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Is there a new league where only 2 players are on the ice? Last time I looked, they were 5 skaters excluding goalies.Last year stats, really the same kind of team . And funny you used the last 4years. What about the last 2 years where you know, Suzuki started playing with Caufield.
Oh, and since people here like to bring number without context and reflection, in the last 2y, kotka his on pair with my boy Pezzetta and over the hill Gally. Who's the better player? I don't know!!!

Did I argue kotkaniemi was better than Suzuki? No, I'm just highlighting how he's performed quite well at 5v5 vs his contract.

People acting like he's grossly overpaid don't know what they are talking about.

 

[bud12]

Did I argue kotkaniemi was better than Suzuki? No, I'm just highlighting how he's performed quite well at 5v5 vs his contract.

People acting like he's grossly overpaid don't know what they are talking about.

This I agree with, kotka is not overpaid in today nhl and I would gladly take him back with the habs

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This I agree with, kotka is not overpaid in today nhl and I would gladly take him back with the habs

In a vacuum, maybe not.

For a team up against the cap that has Cup aspirations like Carolina, it's fair to ask if that $4.8M is wisely spent on him.

Last season, the answer was unequivocally no. So far this season, the answer is yes, but it's still early.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

So if Kokaniemi is top line material, similar to the players you’re comparing him too, why wouldn’t the Canes play him on the power play?

I actually like Kokaniemi as a player, and I am certainly not saying he has no value, but with his current contact (length and money) and historical level of play, he doesn’t hold much value IMO.

After 6 years in the league, do you really think he’s all of a sudden going to live up to his draft potential? I’m not saying it can’t happen, but you have to admit it’s unlikely.

The Canes actually do play Kotkaniemi on the 2nd unit. He's not a good power play player, at all. But we don't have as many options this year after losing Guentzel, Noesen, and Teravainen. My point is he is a pretty underrated 5v5 point scorer, and I agree with you that he's a bad PP player.

I'd be curious if he would be a good PKer. He never plays PK time. Rod likes to put his best forwards out on the kill, so players like Aho and Jarvis see a lot of PK time. Kotkaniemi probably doesn't have the speed to be a PK scoring threat.

 

[zizbuka]

KK and a 1st for Laughton?

 

[Svechhammer]

Did I argue kotkaniemi was better than Suzuki? No, I'm just highlighting how he's performed quite well at 5v5 vs his contract.

People acting like he's grossly overpaid don't know what they are talking about.

If anything, its showing just how underrated and undervalued Kotkaniemi has been over the last few years, and its all because of the discourse about the offer sheet.

The people who think he's grossly overpaid probably don't realize that he's making $4.8m now instead of the $6.1m he made when the Canes bought him from Montreal. At $6m, he's overpaid by a decent amount, but at $4.8m, its fair between both his usage as well as production, if only just a slight overpay. But again, at 8 years the expectation is that its a very cheap deal by the end, which it likely will be.

 

[malcb33]

If anything, its showing just how underrated and undervalued Kotkaniemi has been over the last few years, and its all because of the discourse about the offer sheet.

Not sure I agree that it’s because of the offer sheet, I’d say it’s more because he was a 3OA pick in a high profile market. But the offer sheet drama probably didn’t help either.

 

[Svechhammer]

Not sure I agree that it’s because of the offer sheet, I’d say it’s more because he was a 3OA pick in a high profile market. But the offer sheet drama probably didn’t help either.

Yeah I don't know about that.

We drafted Noah Hanifin 5th overall in 2015 and has for the most part never really lived up to it, but you don't see continual threads and denigration being thrown out there by jilted Canes fans about him, and for the most part we're happy to see he's had success elsewhere.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If anything, its showing just how underrated and undervalued Kotkaniemi has been over the last few years, and its all because of the discourse about the offer sheet.

I don't agree with that. He has gotten some of the most sheltered minutes of any Canes center, even this year (yes, look it up). While he had a good season 2 years ago, last year he wasn't good at all. Even he admitted he had a bad season so it's not just because of the offer sheet. After scoring 8 goals in 22 games in October/Novemeber, he scored 4 goals in 57 games the rest of the season. It's ok to admit he was bad last year, because he was.

That said, he's off to a very good start this year and from the games I've seen, he looks like he's playing well and playing with more confidence. That's good and we just need him to keep it up.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If anything, its showing just how underrated and undervalued Kotkaniemi has been over the last few years, and its all because of the discourse about the offer sheet.

The people who think he's grossly overpaid probably don't realize that he's making $4.8m now instead of the $6.1m he made when the Canes bought him from Montreal. At $6m, he's overpaid by a decent amount, but at $4.8m, its fair between both his usage as well as production, if only just a slight overpay. But again, at 8 years the expectation is that its a very cheap deal by the end, which it likely will be.

Yeah.

He's 52nd in 5v5 p/60 among true centers >150gp since 2021-22 (he ranks 65th of the 182 listed "centers", which includes wingers like Huberdeau and Guentzel).

That puts him in the top third of the league's centers - meaning he's produced like a low end 2C at 5v5. His 1.86 p/60 puts him right behind guys like Trocheck, Schenn, Zibanejad, Horvat, Danault, and Suzuki, and ahead of guys like ROR, Cozens, Henrique, Gourde, Backlund, Lundell, Cirelli, Hertl, Jenner, and Coyle.

And it's not like the Hurricanes are world beaters at scoring 5v5. They were 9th in 5v5 goals from 2021-2024, only scoring at ~5% clip better than the avg team. Of the 15 Canes with >150gp in that span, he's 4th in g/60 and 5th in p/60. So he's fitting in quite nicely.

He's also 3rd in raw 5v5 CF% among NHL centers since joining the Canes, behind only Patrice Bergeron and Jordan Staal. The Canes are obviously a strong possession team, but Kotkaniemi has clearly been a meaningful part of that. And he's 51.3% in the dot as a Hurricane.

So he's a 6'3 200lb defensively responsible center who can win faceoffs, play with a physical edge, and produce like a low end 2C at 5v5. Even if he doesn't contribute much on the special teams side of things, $4.8M feels closer to underpayment than overpayment.

 

[japhi27returns]

Looks like a good start for KK.

Still not sure why folks refer to him as a defensive player. He doens’t kill penalties and gets stapled to the bench when the game is close. He isn’t used in a defensive role in any meaningful way. I see folks reference him as a Staal replacement but I don’t see it.

He kind of exists in no mans land, not a big producer, not a shut down player, poor/ inconsistent results in the playoffs.

If this offense holds you have a really solid mid line player on a decent deal, if he reverts back to 35 point KK, he is wasted cap space. For a team this close to a Cup, that 5mm can get something pretty special at the deadline so the opportunity cost is significant.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Looks like a good start for KK.

Still not sure why folks refer to him as a defensive player. He doens’t kill penalties and gets stapled to the bench when the game is close. He isn’t used in a defensive role in any meaningful way. I see folks reference him as a Staal replacement but I don’t see it.

He kind of exists in no mans land, not a big producer, not a shut down player, poor/ inconsistent results in the playoffs.

His relative defensive metrics are positive, which is impressive on a team with Jordan Staal and Sebastian Aho as the other 2 top centers. He's big, physical, and good as well. He'll never be an elite shutdown guy, but he's a still a very responsible defensive center.

If this offense holds you have a really solid mid line player on a decent deal, if he reverts back to 35 point KK, he is wasted cap space. For a team this close to a Cup, that 5mm can get something pretty special at the deadline so the opportunity cost is significant.

He's produced like a low end 2C at 5v5 over the last 4 years...

 

[Deon Thompson]

I hate this subject, because it tends to bring out bad faith arguments from both the Quebecois salt mine and in response from overly sensitive Canes fans.

My eye test says that Kotkaniemi is a perfectly acceptable complimentary middle-6 center. He is defensively sound, drives possession, is a pretty good passer, brings some physicality, & plays a responsible game. He does not create offense for his line, and is prone to massive cold streaks where he struggles to impact the game at all on the offensive end.

When he's got an impact player on his line driving things, as he does now, he's a helpful passenger on offense and his contract is fair-to-middlin value wise. When he doesn't, and he goes cold as he did in the latter half of last season, his contract looks like a mild to moderate overpay.

I suspect a couple years from now, even if he only makes incremental improvements to his game, that contract will look like decent value on the good side and fair-to-middlin on the bad side respectively.

 

[Finnen]

My eye test says that Kotkaniemi is a perfectly acceptable complimentary middle-6 center. He is defensively sound, drives possession, is a pretty good passer, brings some physicality, & plays a responsible game.

Yes.

 

[japhi27returns]

His relative defensive metrics are positive, which is impressive on a team with Jordan Staal and Sebastian Aho as the other 2 top centers. He's big, physical, and good as well. He'll never be an elite shutdown guy, but he's a still a very responsible defensive center.

He's produced like a low end 2C at 5v5 over the last 4 years...

I’m not a huge fan of the 5v5 stats, they tend to overate players that don’t play tough 5v5 minutes. I would sure hope a guy playing mostly offensive minded minutes against second rate competition would outproduce a guy playing shutdown vs other teams top players.

Either way, doesn’t matter. Good start and maybe at some point his coach will see the same value the advanced stats apparently do.

 

[thrillhous]

Like other posters I remembered that he started hot last year too, then cooled off. But the stats are nuts actually:

13 pts in first 14 games
15 pts in the remaining 76 reg/playoff games

Maybe he won’t cool off like crazy this year?

 

[Frank Drebin]

He’s still one of the youngest players drafted in 2018 playing in the nhl, he should only get better

 

[Frank Drebin]

During the last 4 seasons:

Kotkaniemi:
241gp
0.77 5v5 g/60
1.86 5v5 p/60

Suzuki:ii
262gp
0.77 5v5 g/60
1.91 5v5 p/60

Pretty much identical 5v5 production. I think he's done just fine for 4.8M as a middle 6

Did I argue kotkaniemi was better than Suzuki? No, I'm just highlighting how he's performed quite well at 5v5 vs his contract.

People acting like he's grossly overpaid don't know what they are talking about.

Oh, you were just posting stats without context to “let us draw our own conclusions “ were ya?

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

KK and a 1st for Laughton?

Done immediately lol for just the late 1st

 

[paragon]

In a vacuum, maybe not.

For a team up against the cap that has Cup aspirations like Carolina, it's fair to ask if that $4.8M is wisely spent on him.

Last season, the answer was unequivocally no. So far this season, the answer is yes, but it's still early.

He started hot last years as well with 13 points in his first 15 games. His 10 points so far is a slower start. Feels like regression to the mean is bound to happen.

 

[zizbuka]

Done immediately lol for just the late 1st

You know you're giving us the 1st, right?

 

[Shocker]

You know you're giving us the 1st, right?

Well yeah, he's a Philly fan, Philly's first wouldn't be a late one anyways