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Value of: Jesperi Kotkaniemi

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More EV points (Center) than...

Anze Kopitar
Tyler Seguin
Sebastian Aho
Nico Hischier
Matty Beniers
J.T. Miller
Brayden Point
Mika Zibanejad
Jonathan Huberdeau
Auston Matthews
.
.
.
 
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For those wondering how he's been this year, we've been seeing metrics like this quite often after his games this year, and the eye test isn't exactly disagreeing with it.



And again, he's the 2C centering a line with Necas, our leading goal scorer, so it's not like he's being sheltered. Just seems to have something figured out and he's playing a good complete game in the early stages of the season.
 
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EquivalentStay said:
He has more points this year than any center on the Habs but Suzuki. Try again.
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that's a really poor argument. He's playing with Necas who is on an absolute heater and the Canes are a much deeper team than MTL. Secondly, this is the definition of small sample size. I remember last year about this time there were some fans talking about what a good start he had.

I'm happy he's performing but I need to see sustained performance over the course of a season.
The Gr8 Dane said:
Is he sheltered?
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Kind of, but a lot of that is because the Canes overwhelmingly put Staal out against other teams' top pair, so the other 3 centers get sheltered more. He has the 2nd most DZone starts among Canes Centers but the easiest QOC.


QOC.jpg
 
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Currently, Kotkaniemi has 10 points, none on the PP. He's pacing right now for 59 points at even strength.

Let's round that down to 50 points, assuming Necas cools down.

Actually, let's round it down to 45 points.

Maybe the lines get broken up. Hell, let's assume Kotkaniemi slows down by like 2/3rds of this pace and gets 40 points. Where would that land him, compared to other even strength scorers?

Last year, he'd be tied with Martin Necas, Connor Bedard, and Ivan Barbashev for 92nd, which statistically makes Kotkaniemi a bottom-tier 1st liner in terms of scoring (I'd assume the top 96 scoring forwards are top line players). It's a rough analysis, but that's his comparable.

If Kotkaniemi hits 50 points even strength, he'd tie Tim Stutzle last year for 38th, and be just better than Malkin, Nyquist, Duchene, and Barkov. For even strength scoring, that's bonafide top line material.

I don't think fans appreciate how comparably rare even strength scoring, and just how valuable it is. Particularly if that player is a net positive defensively. Half of these players should be net negative defensively, making Kotkaniemi more valuable.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi will never be a sexy scorer, but you're out to lunch if you don't think he is a valuable player.
 
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Discipline Daddy said:
Currently, Kotkaniemi has 10 points, none on the PP. He's pacing right now for 59 points at even strength.

Let's round that down to 50 points, assuming Necas cools down.

Actually, let's round it down to 45 points.

Maybe the lines get broken up. Hell, let's assume Kotkaniemi slows down by like 2/3rds of this pace and gets 40 points. Where would that land him, compared to other even strength scorers?

Last year, he'd be tied with Martin Necas, Connor Bedard, and Ivan Barbashev for 92nd, which statistically makes Kotkaniemi a bottom-tier 1st liner in terms of scoring (I'd assume the top 96 scoring forwards are top line players). It's a rough analysis, but that's his comparable.

If Kotkaniemi hits 50 points even strength, he'd tie Tim Stutzle last year for 38th, and be just better than Malkin, Nyquist, Duchene, and Barkov. For even strength scoring, that's bonafide top line material.

I don't think fans appreciate how comparably rare even strength scoring, and just how valuable it is. Particularly if that player is a net positive defensively. Half of these players should be net negative defensively, making Kotkaniemi more valuable.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi will never be a sexy scorer, but you're out to lunch if you don't think he is a valuable player.
Click to expand...
Statistics can be misleading when projecting on very small sample sizes. Last year at this time, he had 13 points through 14 games and 10 of them were at ES. He ended up with 27 points in 79 games, with 24 of them being at ES.

I've been happy with his game so far this year and hope he keeps it up, but I've learned that 10-15 game sample sizes aren't very meaningful for a guy that has had consistency issues in the past.
 
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Discipline Daddy said:
Currently, Kotkaniemi has 10 points, none on the PP. He's pacing right now for 59 points at even strength.

Let's round that down to 50 points, assuming Necas cools down.

Actually, let's round it down to 45 points.

Maybe the lines get broken up. Hell, let's assume Kotkaniemi slows down by like 2/3rds of this pace and gets 40 points. Where would that land him, compared to other even strength scorers?

Last year, he'd be tied with Martin Necas, Connor Bedard, and Ivan Barbashev for 92nd, which statistically makes Kotkaniemi a bottom-tier 1st liner in terms of scoring (I'd assume the top 96 scoring forwards are top line players). It's a rough analysis, but that's his comparable.

If Kotkaniemi hits 50 points even strength, he'd tie Tim Stutzle last year for 38th, and be just better than Malkin, Nyquist, Duchene, and Barkov. For even strength scoring, that's bonafide top line material.

I don't think fans appreciate how comparably rare even strength scoring, and just how valuable it is. Particularly if that player is a net positive defensively. Half of these players should be net negative defensively, making Kotkaniemi more valuable.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi will never be a sexy scorer, but you're out to lunch if you don't think he is a valuable player.
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So if Kokaniemi is top line material, similar to the players you’re comparing him too, why wouldn’t the Canes play him on the power play?

I actually like Kokaniemi as a player, and I am certainly not saying he has no value, but with his current contact (length and money) and historical level of play, he doesn’t hold much value IMO.

After 6 years in the league, do you really think he’s all of a sudden going to live up to his draft potential? I’m not saying it can’t happen, but you have to admit it’s unlikely.
 
To answer the OP...

His value is that of a middle C with size that is a complimentary player.

He may still have some upside especially if he can develop more consistency.

He seems to come out warm and then cool off. No idea if it's conditioning or between the ears.

I have noticed improvement in his skating, balance, and shot but he seems to defer a lot to his linemates. Because of that I call him kokonut and think most of his issues are between the ears and he needs to learn to be more assertive.
 
General Fanager said:
Sour? I am so thankful The Habs dodged a bullet on that one. Sure he had a decent start, wait a few weeks, he will fade as usual...

BTW I never said he was bad, I said he is worth nowhere near 4.8 per season.
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During the last 4 seasons:

Kotkaniemi:
241gp
0.77 5v5 g/60
1.86 5v5 p/60

Suzuki:
262gp
0.77 5v5 g/60
1.91 5v5 p/60

Pretty much identical 5v5 production. I think he's done just fine for 4.8M as a middle 6 two-way center.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils said:
During the last 4 seasons:

Kotkaniemi:
241gp
0.77 5v5 g/60
1.86 5v5 p/60

Suzuki:
262gp
0.77 5v5 g/60
1.91 5v5 p/60

Pretty much identical 5v5 production. I think he's done just fine for 4.8M as a middle 6 two-way center.
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Should we wait and see how those stats look at the end of the season and re-visit? Or would that defeat the purpose of using disingenuous small sample sizes?
 
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Boom Boom Apathy said:
that's a really poor argument. He's playing with Necas who is on an absolute heater and the Canes are a much deeper team than MTL. Secondly, this is the definition of small sample size. I remember last year about this time there were some fans talking about what a good start he had.

I'm happy he's performing but I need to see sustained performance over the course of a season.

Kind of, but a lot of that is because the Canes overwhelmingly put Staal out against other teams' top pair, so the other 3 centers get sheltered more. He has the 2nd most DZone starts among Canes Centers but the easiest QOC.


View attachment 929554
Click to expand...

You know you're a good possession team, when you're shutdown center is getting almost 54% oz starts.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils said:
During the last 4 seasons:

Kotkaniemi:
241gp
0.77 5v5 g/60
1.86 5v5 p/60

Suzuki:
262gp
0.77 5v5 g/60
1.91 5v5 p/60

Pretty much identical 5v5 production. I think he's done just fine for 4.8M as a middle 6 two-way center.
Click to expand...
Yeah becausee the team they play for in those last 4years are really comparable:help:
 
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bud12 said:
Yeah becausee the team they play for in those last 4years are really comparable:help:
Click to expand...
Is Caufield not a good enough linemate to produce with?

Kotkaniemi has essentially the same 5v5 p/60 numbers as Jarvis over that span. You know, his teammate.
 
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