Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Part 20 - Second line centre edition?

[BLONG7]

Without producing at a 0.5PPG rate, he should at the very least consistently show that he can either play a very good defensive game, either have the ability to make his linemates better, either play physically with some consistency and give some space and time to his linemates. He hasn't done any of that on a consistent basis. The only samples people come up with when it comes to Kotkaniemi, is 2 playoffs runs in which he shot at a ridiculous 23% rate, which is unsustainable in the long run.

He has to show something - anything - that makes him a good option as a top-6 C. Not saying it's never going to happen. But as of now, there's just no argument in his favor as to whether he's ready to take on such a role.

Fans on both sides of this banter, can make good points....it does go both ways here.
I am in the camp, that the kid just has not been given a fair shot, at being anything....and at times, he is scoring game winning goals, while doing what others are paid to do, with more TOI and better linemantes....
This kid is going to be told, the time is now....he will get a bridge deal, and hopefully real linemates, for more than 3 games....and he brings it.....
Lost in it all, is he is just 21.....he has taken his demotions in stride, he has taken his healthy scratches in stride....
I think this is a huge season coming, and he will surprise many...offensively, and quite possibly defensively.
If not, they make a deal to aquire a shutdown type of guy, there are many....and off we go.

There are a ton of guys on this team, that have been given enough rope, to hit the bottom of the grand canyon....but not this kid...not sure why?

 

[Kents polished head]

He's improved skating, balance, strength (cycle ability), physical play, faceoff ability and transition play.

Skating is still sub-par.
Balance is still sub-par.
Strength? For all we know it might be better. But we sure don't see him dominate the boards the way a guy like Armia does.
Faceoffs went from 45.7 to 47.9. Hardly a huge improvement by any means.

So what is remaining? He hits more and he is better "in transition"... however you want to quantify that. Wow. I mean, I know people are saying we should put our expectations in check for him. But I didn't know they had to be that low. Especially for a lottery pick.

 

[CauZuki]

I mean, he's asked the same question about 3 or 4 times in the last 2 pages and it doesn't look like anyone can come up with any concrete answer

Comparing year over year is fair when the team clearly had a goal that wasn't propsect development last year? People can say 4th year all they want but he's 6 months older than Caufield and just had a real strong playoff performance by 21 and under standards. How is that not progression?

His skating still needs work , needs to fill out more but his physical game has taken steps in the right direction. At 21 years of age it's too early to read into his stats especially since he doesn't play in the top 6 and top PP units.

He has certain things to figure out but I don't see a young player that's "lost" just one that's going through normal inconsistencies.

Danault goes weeks without a goal with better linemates and ice-time and he just signed for 5.5M. I think we need to temper our expectation and be patient rather than putting all our previous frustrations on him. He's not Galchenyuk/Drouin or any other disapointing 3rd overall , he has his own path , not his fault the climate is not ripe for his development.

 

[Kents polished head]

Comparing year over year is fair when the team clearly had a goal that wasn't propsect development last year? People can say 4th year all they want but he's 6 months older than Caufield and just had a real strong playoff performance by 21 and under standards. How is that not progression?

His skating still needs work , needs to fill out more but his physical game has taken steps in the right direction. At 21 years of age it's too early to reading into his stats especially since he doesn't play in the top 6 and top PP units.

He has certain things to figure out but I don't see a young player that's "lost" just one that's going through normal inconsistencies.

Danault goes weeks without a goal with better linemates and ice-time and he just signed for 5.5M.

Danault does one thing pretty damn good though; He's a great defensive player. Whatever his limitations may be and however bad he is offensively, he does that one thing pretty damn well.
It's not just about points. Not all good plays end up in the net. But you like to see a guy actually create something with the puck. Kotkaniemi just doesn't on a regular basis.

 

[Playmaker09]

There is one crucial difference between KK and those guys though; all of them have shown a clear progression/improvement since their rookie year. KK has not. He's the exact same player from rookie camp 3 years ago. Virtually zero improvement in any area - not a good sign. KK is on the Patrik Stefan development track.

Hasn't shown improvement? You're going to tell me his skating, strength, balance, faceoffs, etc. haven't noticeably improved year after year?

Are we watching the same games?

Progression is not linear when you're in the NHL. It's very easy to look like you're progressing quickly when you're facing different levels of competition every year - Juniors, then AHL, then NHL.

But when you're facing peak level competition and you have obvious weaknesses to improve for your game to shine at the NHL level, then the results of your work won't materialize into anything tangible on the score sheet until those weaknesses have been overcome.

In KK's case, let's say there's a 1-on-1 loose puck situation. He can either win by getting to the puck first or by winning the 50/50 puck battle.

At 18 years old he's 20% slower and weaker than his opponent, so he loses in either scenario. But he improves in both of these areas at 6% per year.

So in year 2 he's 14% slower and weaker. Improved, but the result is still the same. He loses.

Year 3 - 8% slower and weaker. Improved, but the result is still the same. He loses.

Year 4 - 2% slower and weaker. Improved, but the result is still the same. He loses.

Year 5 he's finally both faster and stronger than his opponent. He's now winning these battles consistently. He has the puck on his stick more often. He's able to shield the puck from his opponent after he wins it and/or has the speed to separate and create space for his pass/shot. As a result, his point totals skyrocket.

Are you going to tell me he wasn't improving in Years 1-4?

Examples of this are Mackinnon's first 5 years in the NHL or Couturier's first 7. Two bigger centers who also entered the league at 18 and had their own difficulties to overcome:

2013-14	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	82	24	39	63	26	20	7	2	8	10	4
2014-15	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	64	14	24	38	34	-7	--	--	--	--	--
2015-16	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	72	21	31	52	20	-4	--	--	--	--	--
2016-17	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	82	16	37	53	16	-14	--	--	--	--	--
2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	74	39	58	97	55	11	6	3	3	6	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2011-12	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	77	13	14	27	14	18	11	3	1	4	2
2012-13	Adirondack Phantoms	AHL	31	10	18	28	16	-8	--	--	--	--	--
2012-13	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	46	4	11	15	10	-8	--	--	--	--	--
2013-14	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	82	13	26	39	45	1	7	0	0	0	6
2014-15	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	82	15	22	37	28	4	--	--	--	--	--
2015-16	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	63	11	28	39	30	8	1	0	0	0	0
2016-17	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	66	14	20	34	33	12	--	--	--	--	--
2017-18	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	82	31	45	76	31	34	5	5	4	9	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Does that look like year-to-year progression to you? Or does it look like they finally hit a break point where their skill was allowed to properly be displayed, resulting in an explosion of production?

Aaaaaaaand that's why we all need to LEARN. TO. HAVE. SOME. f***ING. PATIENCE.

 

[CauZuki]

Danault does one thing pretty damn good though; He's a great defensive player. Whatever his limitations may be and however bad he is offensively, he does that one thing pretty damn well.
It's not just about points. Not all good plays end up in the net. But you like to see a guy actually create something with the puck. Kotkaniemi just doesn't on a regular basis.

I agree but KK has shown good signs defensively and the regularity will come with time , he's 21. Repeat it with me , he spent his first 2 seasons as the youngest player among the big 5 leagues.

He has the will to improve , he has the talent, patience is key, development is not linear as I'm sure you know. The proof is his balance, it has improved , he was falling like crazy in his first two seasons. He started imposing himself (physically) as of last playoffs (2020) and also in 2021 with some nice goal scoring as well!

 

[Zorba]

Skating is still sub-par.
Balance is still sub-par.
Strength? For all we know it might be better. But we sure don't see him dominate the boards the way a guy like Armia does.
Faceoffs went from 45.7 to 47.9. Hardly a huge improvement by any means.

So what is remaining? He hits more and he is better "in transition"... however you want to quantify that. Wow. I mean, I know people are saying we should put our expectations in check for him. But I didn't know they had to be that low. Especially for a lottery pick.

His strength hasn’t improved. I had a dollar for every time Pierre Houde and Felix seguin say , “kotkaniemi tombe “ I’d have a winter Getaway in Hawaii.
the kid is physically weak

 

[Sorinth]

Without producing at a 0.5PPG rate, he should at the very least consistently show that he can either play a very good defensive game, either have the ability to make his linemates better, either play physically with some consistency and give some space and time to his linemates. He hasn't done any of that on a consistent basis. The only samples people come up with when it comes to Kotkaniemi, is 2 playoffs runs in which he shot at a ridiculous 23% rate, which is unsustainable in the long run.

He has to show something - anything - that makes him a good option as a top-6 C. Not saying it's never going to happen. But as of now, there's just no argument in his favor as to whether he's ready to take on such a role.

Did you even read my post, because he DID produce at a 0.5 ppg last season.

 

[Kents polished head]

I agree but KK has shown good signs defensively and the regularity will come with time , he's 21. Repeat it with me , he spent his first 2 seasons as the youngest player among the big 5 leagues.

He has the will to improve , he has the talent, patience is key, development is not linear as I'm sure you know. The proof is his balance, it has improved , he was falling like crazy in his first two seasons. He started imposing himself (physically) as of last playoffs (2020) and also in 2021 with some nice goal scoring as well!

23% SH% is not sustainable. It might have been fun to watch, but he's not shooting that percentage in the long run.
What is particularly scary in his case, is that despite all of those "improvements", he's still what he is right now, and all of that, despite being drafted 3rd overall. How clever is it to draft a guy that is that flawed with a 3rd overall pick, and then throw it right into the NHL, when there is a guy who, by all means, was said to be ready to play right away in Brady Tkachuk.

 

[Kents polished head]

Did you even read my post, because he DID produce at a 0.5 ppg last season.

No he didn't. Chris Higgins scored 40 goals twice if you try to make up an argument with 30-40 games stretches.

Not sure why you brought up Staal at all in your post so I didn't address it neither. But if we're at the point where it's an excuse why our former 3rd overall pick stopped producing consistently, we're in trouble.

 

[Habs Halifax]

No he didn't. Chris Higgins scored 40 goals twice if you try to make up an argument with 30-40 games stretches.

Not sure why you brought up Staal at all in your post so I didn't address it neither. But if we're at the point where it's an excuse why our former 3rd overall pick stopped producing consistently, we're in trouble.

The biggest issue with KK is how we took him in the draft with the expectation he was a long term prospect and then a few months later, we put him in the NHL.

Timeline:
* Started the year ranked 20-30 range.
* Was ranked mid pack (15th ish) half way though the year
* Had a great U18's and increased his stock value in a draft that did not have a lot of centers.
* We drafted him as a long term center prospect.
* He went from playing bottom 6 sheltered role in the Liiga league at age 17 to 3C in the NHL at age 18. This coming right after his rookie camp with us was meh and he didn't dominate.

Habs rushed the kid and that's problem #1. I still think he will turn into a solid player for us but Montreal is the last place that should be rushing prospects to fill holes. Until he fills into that frame, you are going to see more discussion and distraction on how good he is. It's what our fan base does... we like to talk and ride small ups/downs all the time.

 

[Playmaker09]

His strength hasn’t improved. I had a dollar for every time Pierre Houde and Felix seguin say , “kotkaniemi tombe “ I’d have a winter Getaway in Hawaii.
the kid is physically weak

He's weaker than his opponents with a high center of gravity. So he falls.

He was also weaker than his opponents at 18, only by a higher margin.

Therefore he has improved, even though the result hasn't changed.

Eventually - we can only hope - he improves enough to the point where this is no longer an issue.

But you can't tell me you haven't noticed how much more punishing he is physically on the forecheck at 20 than he was at 18? He's obviously got more speed + mass behind him.

 

[Kents polished head]

The biggest issue with KK is how we took him in the draft with the expectation he was a long term prospect and then a few months later, we put him in the NHL.

Timeline:
* Started the year ranked 20-30 range.
* Was ranked mid pack (15th ish) half way though the year
* Had a great U18's and increased his stock value in a draft that did not have a lot of centers.
* We drafted him as a long term center prospect.
* He went from playing bottom 6 sheltered role in the Liiga league at age 17 to 3C in the NHL at age 18. This coming right after his rookie camp with us was meh and he didn't dominate.

Habs rushed the kid and that's problem #1. I still think he will turn into a solid player for us but Montreal is the last place that should be rushing prospects to fill holes. Until he fills into that frame, you are going to see more discussion and distraction on how good he is. It's what our fan base does... we like to talk and ride small ups/downs all the time.

Exhibit 294A: Why drafting by needs and not going for BPA is stupid. BPA was quite clearly Tkachuk back then.

We messed up big time. Now, we can only hope the guy takes the next step. But whether people want it or not, he's always going to be compared to Quinn Hughes and Brady Tkachuk.

 

[Kents polished head]

He's weaker than his opponents with a high center of gravity. So he falls.

He was also weaker than his opponents at 18, only by a higher margin.

Therefore he has improved, even though the result hasn't changed.

Eventually - we can only hope - he improves enough to the point where this is no longer an issue.

But you can't tell me you haven't noticed how much more punishing he is physically on the forecheck at 20 than he was at 18? He's obviously got more speed + mass behind him.

You hope for more when you draft a guy 3rd overall. Not "improvements that happen without providing different results" and hitting harder.

 

[The Great Weal]

Did you even read my post, because he DID produce at a 0.5 ppg last season.

No he didn't, he was 0.5 ppg for the first 38 games.

 

[Zorba]

Exhibit 294A: Why drafting by needs and not going for BPA is stupid. BPA was quite clearly Tkachuk back then.

We messed up big time. Now, we can only hope the guy takes the next step. But whether people want it or not, he's always going to be compared to Quinn Hughes and Brady Tkachuk.

Tkachuk is close to a 30 g scorer now. Yet we have to have patience. It’s weird. Kotkaniemi has been extremely underwhelming and for some reason posters have a hard time admitting it.
All I know is when teams start loading up on Suzuki, the habs are screwed

 

[Rockomax]

Did you even read my post, because he DID produce at a 0.5 ppg last season.

20 points in 56 games isn't 0.5 ppg. His best ppg rate was during his 1st season. However, this kind of curve isn't exactly abnormal I believe. 0.43 ppg during the 1st season, 0.22 ppg during his 2nd season and 0.35 ppg during his 3rd. In my opinion, the upcoming season is the the one that will determine his progression. We should expect something between 0.43 and 0.5 ppg to see true progression and have his best statistical season. If he's around 0.35 ppg again, I think it's safe to say that he will amount to a 35-45 points per season C. Fine on the 3rd line.

 

[Zorba]

Did you even read my post, because he DID produce at a 0.5 ppg last season.

When did he produce at a .5ppg rate ? You realize all 56 games count , right?

 

[Canadienna]

Nah. Better off with the bridge.

Lol wow.

Really? 8 years and 40 million? Where do posters come up with this.
He’s not even a .5 ppg players and you wanna give him 40 million
Wow
In that case just give Suzuki 8 years and 12 million a year

Yeah okay I'll admit it was a little silly to suggest he deserves that kind of money.

As I wrote, it was more of a hypothetical thought exercise to see how much it would cost to get him on eight years. That said I'll admit my numbers weren't well thought out.

 

[Heffyhoof]

Certain posters seem to come to this thread every few days, pretend everything written to them before never happened and come back with 'lol lol Bambi falls all the time and isn't even Eller level of good lol lol dumb fanboys.'

 

[Zorba]

Certain posters seem to come to this thread every few days, pretend everything written to them before never happened and come back with 'lol lol Bambi falls all the time and isn't even Eller level of good lol lol dumb fanboys.'

And other ones come back adamant that he’s gonna be a 60-70 pt Centre. Right now he’s one his ass so much he will never be 60 pt guy

 

[MtlSars]

Hes not there yet and wont be this year (although steady wingers and more opportunities will have him improve).

But I also expect a Couturier type of progression.....

When he's going to be around 24 he'll give us 60-70pts with hits, faceoffs and sound defensive play. Your crow is in the crockpot so to speak...

 

[Garbageyuk]

Hasn't shown improvement? You're going to tell me his skating, strength, balance, faceoffs, etc. haven't noticeably improved year after year?

Are we watching the same games?

Progression is not linear when you're in the NHL. It's very easy to look like you're progressing quickly when you're facing different levels of competition every year - Juniors, then AHL, then NHL.

But when you're facing peak level competition and you have obvious weaknesses to improve for your game to shine at the NHL level, then the results of your work won't materialize into anything tangible on the score sheet until those weaknesses have been overcome.

In KK's case, let's say there's a 1-on-1 loose puck situation. He can either win by getting to the puck first or by winning the 50/50 puck battle.

At 18 years old he's 20% slower and weaker than his opponent, so he loses in either scenario. But he improves in both of these areas at 6% per year.

So in year 2 he's 14% slower and weaker. Improved, but the result is still the same. He loses.

Year 3 - 8% slower and weaker. Improved, but the result is still the same. He loses.

Year 4 - 2% slower and weaker. Improved, but the result is still the same. He loses.

Year 5 he's finally both faster and stronger than his opponent. He's now winning these battles consistently. He has the puck on his stick more often. He's able to shield the puck from his opponent after he wins it and/or has the speed to separate and create space for his pass/shot. As a result, his point totals skyrocket.

Are you going to tell me he wasn't improving in Years 1-4?

Examples of this are Mackinnon's first 5 years in the NHL or Couturier's first 7. Two bigger centers who also entered the league at 18 and had their own difficulties to overcome:

2013-14	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	82	24	39	63	26	20	7	2	8	10	4
2014-15	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	64	14	24	38	34	-7	--	--	--	--	--
2015-16	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	72	21	31	52	20	-4	--	--	--	--	--
2016-17	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	82	16	37	53	16	-14	--	--	--	--	--
2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	74	39	58	97	55	11	6	3	3	6	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2011-12	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	77	13	14	27	14	18	11	3	1	4	2
2012-13	Adirondack Phantoms	AHL	31	10	18	28	16	-8	--	--	--	--	--
2012-13	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	46	4	11	15	10	-8	--	--	--	--	--
2013-14	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	82	13	26	39	45	1	7	0	0	0	6
2014-15	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	82	15	22	37	28	4	--	--	--	--	--
2015-16	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	63	11	28	39	30	8	1	0	0	0	0
2016-17	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	66	14	20	34	33	12	--	--	--	--	--
2017-18	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	82	31	45	76	31	34	5	5	4	9	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Does that look like year-to-year progression to you? Or does it look like they finally hit a break point where their skill was allowed to properly be displayed, resulting in an explosion of production?

Aaaaaaaand that's why we all need to LEARN. TO. HAVE. SOME. f***ING. PATIENCE.

You are literally making up numbers for KK lol. And yeah MacKinnon improved. What does that have to do with KK lol? There hasn't been any improvement; it's very concerning. His strength and balance have not improved; he's on his ass just as often as he ever was. And he got benched in the finals because he couldn't keep up with Tampa's skating. We can only go by what we see on the ice. You can claim he's improved, but where is the proof? Where are the results? Because they haven't shown up on the ice, and certainly not the score sheet.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Hes not there yet and wont be this year (although steady wingers and more opportunities will have him improve).

But I also expect a Couturier type of progression.....

When he's going to be around 24 he'll give us 60-70pts with hits, faceoffs and sound defensive play. Your crow is in the crockpot so to speak...

Why would you expect a "Couturier type of progression"? How many players go through that type of development curve? It's really rare...

 

[Skip Bayless]

Why would you expect a "Couturier type of progression"? How many players go through that type of development curve? It's really rare...

The KK care bear brigade does not want to accept that KK does not have the tools Couturier had to work with.

This thread is pointless. Nobody will change their mind.

Even when KK goes back to Finland after busting it will be the fault of all the coaches and the GM that drafted him.

Mods please close this thread.