Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi - (On Loan to Liiga)

[bobholly39]

Bustkaniemi.

I have to admit I was worried. Haven't exactly had a recent (or - not recent) history of success developing players, and he didn't look too good during the season. It's so exciting to see him come back and play this well in these playoffs.

Such a likeable player too.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Kotkaniemi playing more physical is giving him confidence. Someone must have talked to him about getting pushed around too much. His Dad maybe? His shot is dangerous and imagine what he looks like when he fills into that body and improves skating.

We finally have centers boys and girls! Future is bright!

 

[Habs Halifax]

I have to admit I was worried. Haven't exactly had a recent (or - not recent) history of success developing players, and he didn't look too good during the season. It's so exciting to see him come back and play this well in these playoffs.

Such a likeable player too.

BPA vs Need or both ?

 

[bobholly39]

BPA vs Need or both ?

My contribution to assessing draft picks and prospects relies entirely on the hype around them. So probably not the most accurate lol

I think with a high enough pick you have to go BPA, but sometimes going for need is fine. It just depends how well you think the player does.

 

[Number 57]

The way he's shooting the puck out there he is starting to look like more Elias Pettersson than Barkov

 

[Habs Halifax]

My contribution to assessing draft picks and prospects relies entirely on the hype around them. So probably not the most accurate lol

I think with a high enough pick you have to go BPA, but sometimes going for need is fine. It just depends how well you think the player does.

BPA is a myth... it's only exist in hindsight. At the 3rd spot that year, it was waive of talent. Kotkaniemi was just not a popular pick like Tkachuk, Hughes, or Zadina were all season. Kotkaniemi was a young player on the rise the closer the draft came.

Imagine... If there were no U18's and playoffs to see in their draft year like this draft year? Kotkaniemi would have been a 15-30 range steal! I expect this draft to be wide open from 15-50 range cause the sample size to evaluate in their draft year is limited.

I asked the question before we drafted KK... Has there been much guys who were rising stocks towards the draft that busted? Not many found any examples if any!

 

[Habs Halifax]

The way he's shooting the puck out there he is starting to look like more Elias Pettersson than Barkov

I thought that exact same thing. Just got to get his one timer going

 

[bobholly39]

BPA is a myth... it's only exist in hindsight. At the 3rd spot that year, it was waive of talent. Kotkaniemi was just not a popular pick like Tkachuk, Hughes, or Zadina were all season. Kotkaniemi was a young player on the rise the closer the draft came.

Imagine... If there were no U18's and playoffs to see in their draft year like this draft year? Kotkaniemi would have been a 15-30 range steal! I expect this draft to be wide open from 15-50 range cause the sample size to evaluate in their draft year is limited

Well BPA isn't a myth. It's just a matter of assessing talent properly. I'm pretty sure LA needs a center - but if they didn't and needed D - would it make sense for them to take BPA (Byfield?) vs a D? I could see either/or discussion.

But - scouting is really essential here. Because in the end, it's about predicting who you feel will be better, even if it's against the grain. Such as Columbus picking Dubois instead of Pulj few years ago.

 

[DangerDave]

Suzuki and KK look like they can anchor the top 6 already. They're only going to improve. Let's get these guys some fast and heavy wingers and we're in business. Don't even need expensive skilled wingers. Just guys with decent finish who create space for our skilled centers.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Suzuki and KK look like they can anchor the top 6 already. They're only going to improve. Let's get these guys some fast and heavy wingers and we're in business. Don't even need expensive skilled wingers. Just guys with decent finish who create space for our skilled centers.

What I like the most is we got two good young centers. This way it's less likely we crown one of them and make them god! Spread the hero concept into a few players so it tones down the hype and pressure on one guy

Very good news. Imagine the feeling we have heading into next season if we had not Covid-19 playoffs? It's nice to see Suzuki and KK doing what they are doing.

 

[sandviper]

Kotkaniemi led the forwards in ice time yesterday. He was arguably our best forward also. Go figure.

That said, kinda need everyone else to step up. I know we had a fun game two, but the rest of this series is gonna be hard fought, and as good as Kotkaniemi and Suzuki have been, they won’t do it by themselves.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Well BPA isn't a myth. It's just a matter of assessing talent properly. I'm pretty sure LA needs a center - but if they didn't and needed D - would it make sense for them to take BPA (Byfield?) vs a D? I could see either/or discussion.

But - scouting is really essential here. Because in the end, it's about predicting who you feel will be better, even if it's against the grain. Such as Columbus picking Dubois instead of Pulj few years ago.

It is a myth. You draft by the board based on your own scouts eyes. BPA are moving targets and a lot of luck involved. Evaluating kids from 15-18 and projecting this forward from 18-22+ has a lot of guess work.

Byfield only looks good cause of his skating/size package. Rossi might end up better than him. Not saying I think that will happen, but it's very possible. From what I seen from Byfied at the WJC is a player who was not able to dominate due to his skating/size package cause many others had that too. He was only 17 so take that with a grain of salt. Basically, people buying into him figuring out the less time and space issue when he turn pro

 

[DAChampion]

Crazy what physical development does to a player.... which is exactly why he shouldve went back to Finland in year one.
I didnt think he was good enough to carry himself out of that hole

Kotkaniemi had approximately 4 months off. If he trained and are really well, he would have put on no more than ~6, possibly 8 lbs of muscle. And some of that would have been regained muscle as he would have needed to rest after the spleen injury.

The main differences are due to confidence and ice time.

 

[salbutera]

Kotkaniemi had approximately 4 months off. If he trained and are really well, he would have put on no more than ~6, possibly 8 lbs of muscle. And some of that would have been regained muscle as he would have needed to rest after the spleen injury.

The main differences are due to confidence and ice time.

Disagree - 5 months of training on a 19-20 year old professional athletic frame will yield accelerated results.

He’s physically more imposing than back in March. Power skating and training has had serious positive impact - his TOI has only picked up last couple of games because wait for it.....he’s earned it.

He hasn’t been falling down which was very evident vs Leafs in the one pre-play in round series. That confidence was gained in realizing he can withstand & deliver physical force vs pre-Covid

 

[DAChampion]

Disagree - 5 months of training on a 19-20 year old professional athletic frame will yield accelerated results.

He’s physically more imposing than back in March. Power skating and training has had serious positive impact - his TOI has only picked up last couple of games because wait for it.....he’s earned it.

He hasn’t been falling down which was very evident vs Leafs in the one pre-play in round series. That confidence was gained in realizing he can withstand & deliver physical force.

How much muscle weight do you think that Kotkaniemi put on in 4 months, keeping in mind that he would have had to rest after the spleen injury?

 

[Mrb1p]

Kotkaniemi had approximately 4 months off. If he trained and are really well, he would have put on no more than ~6, possibly 8 lbs of muscle. And some of that would have been regained muscle as he would have needed to rest after the spleen injury.

The main differences are due to confidence and ice time.

I dont disagree on ice time and confidence, but hes clearly much stronger than he was.

 

[DAChampion]

I dont disagree on ice time and confidence, but hes clearly much stronger than he was.

You are an actual expert. How much weight do you think he could have gained in these past few months?

 

[salbutera]

How much muscle weight do you think that Kotkaniemi put on in 4 months, keeping in mind that he would have had to rest after the spleen injury?

I would speculate it’s strength vs weight. Training of specific muscle groups & areas and skating stride/balance techniques...but I’m no expert in the field.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You are an actual expert. How much weight do you think he could have gained in these past few months?

I see your point. With the Spleen injury, he was likely sidelined for what? From what I can find on the net... A spleen injury with no surgery requires 1 month of no heavy activity and 3 months with no contact sports. So it's not clear when Kotkaneimi would have been able to work out in the Gym. Probably after 2 months I believe. My guess is he had 2 months of recovery and the next 2 months, he gradually trained more and more as he felt better. So 1-2 months of working out in the gym is my guess.

This is a overall confidence thing IMO. He probably put on 5+ lbs and improve his skating. Someone told him to play more physical IMO.... probably his dad or the Habs development team (or both). Basically told him you are being hit first and he should be the one the playing more physical.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I would speculate it’s strength vs weight. Training of specific muscle groups & areas and skating stride/balance techniques...but I’m no expert in the field.

Agreed. I'm no expert as well but that's my gut feeling on this too. Lean muscle vs Bulk Muscle IMO. It might be a simple as him strengthening his mid section (turning some fat into muscle) combined with stronger and quicker legs.

 

[Mrb1p]

You are an actual expert. How much weight do you think he could have gained in these past few months?

You know I can't answer that with any kind of knowledge on Kotkaniemi.

With that said, a nineteen years old, mostly untrained, elite level athlete ? Probably a lot more than we both think. The amount of work and progress you can make in a carefully prepared four months of strength training is crazy, in fact, most elite athletes in strength sports (Not the same sport, I know, but relevant for strength output.) use four months blocks to stack on strengths in a build/learn to use/prime kind of cycle.

 

[DangerDave]

5 or 6 lbs of muscle is probably at the top end of what he can gain in that time span given his injury and how much of that is actually in his legs? I think he just worked really hard on his skating, balance and coordination.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

That is definitely part of it, but he looked good earlier against the Pens as well when he wasn’t playing with top-6 guys. I think his stint in the AHL was crucial development for him that allowed him to build confidence. He barely looks like the same player

The most critical point now in his development is how they handle the first set back. The Hab way for young players, as long as I can remember, is to drop them down the line up, cut their ice time or sit them in the press box. Hopefully they let him and Nuke work through them

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I have to admit I was worried. Haven't exactly had a recent (or - not recent) history of success developing players, and he didn't look too good during the season. It's so exciting to see him come back and play this well in these playoffs.

Such a likeable player too.

I've had faith in him all the way. He just needs somebody different than Julien behind the bench.

 

[Hostile Offer]

BPA is a myth... it's only exist in hindsight. At the 3rd spot that year, it was waive of talent. Kotkaniemi was just not a popular pick like Tkachuk, Hughes, or Zadina were all season. Kotkaniemi was a young player on the rise the closer the draft came.

Imagine... If there were no U18's and playoffs to see in their draft year like this draft year? Kotkaniemi would have been a 15-30 range steal! I expect this draft to be wide open from 15-50 range cause the sample size to evaluate in their draft year is limited.

I asked the question before we drafted KK... Has there been much guys who were rising stocks towards the draft that busted? Not many found any examples if any!

It's not a myth, it just varies between teams.