Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman: VII - agreed to 8 x 8.25 aav

[smithformeragent]

One could make the argument that we're beating a dead horse here.

So be it. Discuss, if you so choose. We'll keep all the Swayman talk contained to this thread.

If you have nothing meaningful to contribute to the conversation, move along.

We will not have this devolve into thread hijacking and flaming of other posters.

@Gee Wally

We have numerous deletions and more in here. We know tension and emotions are high.
But you folks must simply stop taking personal shots at each. Stay to topic.

If not we will be left with no choice other than adding thread bans.

Click to read more...

 

[Kegs]

Gibson has been on a steady downward trajectory since 2018-19 and at this point wouldn't be worth what he's making, even retained. But Zegras would be dynamic on the second line if healthy.

Zegras is so soft. Bruins fans would probably just turn him into a whipping boy.

I think that this is what the Bruins' brass wants the narrative to be.

However, by locking in at 8 years for that cap hit, Swayman likely leaves millions on the table during his prime years.

If I'm Swayman, give me the $8m per, but times 2 years and I want another bite at the apple when I can lock in at $10m AAV.

If I'm the club, I say the $8m per is only good if you go long term. If you want 2 years instead, it's at $6.5m.

its still risky for swayman to do a short term contract. Maybe his health degrades or the league figures out how to score on him. You never can tell. Maybe he won’t be worth 10 in 3 years. Or maybe he gets hurt.

 

[smithformeragent]

Zegras is so soft. Bruins fans would probably just turn him into a whipping boy.

its still risky for swayman to do a short term contract. Maybe his health degrades or the league figures out how to score on him. You never can tell. Maybe he won’t be worth 10 in 3 years. Or maybe he gets hurt.

Sure is.

It’s a sliding scale.

Player, do you want to take the sure thing and lock in long term or do you want a short deal with another kick at the can?

Choose.

 

[Over the volcano]

Gross was aptly named.

 

[UncleRico]

The fact that the Gross hasn't just come out and said " if there's a 64 million dollar offer, we accept it " to call Neely's bluff ( if that's what some people think ) leads me to believe that Gross isn't willing to drop their offer down. And that's the real issue here - Bruins have a worthy offer on the table, be it 7.8 or 8 and Swayman's camp want more.

Two things can be true

1) they weren’t offered a $64m deal

2) they also wouldn’t accept a $64m deal

Not saying either is true but it’s certainly a possibility.

 

[LSCII]

Gross was aptly named.

Why?

 

[Over the volcano]

Why?

Fate apparently

 

[RoccoF14]

Was talking to a buddy of mine (Hawks fan) about the Swayman situation and I shared with him my viewpoint that paying goalies premium money isn't worth it. He sent me this link:

Carey Price and the Value of NHL Goalies

The Montreal Canadiens rewarded their franchise netminder with a contract that occupies roughly 14 percent of their salary cap. Is Price—or any goalie—worth that investment?

magazine.wharton.upenn.edu

Its from 2018 and was written after the Price contract was signed, but it lines up exactly with my point of view. I never saw any empirical evidence to back up my gut instinct until I read this. I'd argue the save % standard deviation has continued to decrease and the goals per game spread has even narrowed further since this study was conducted.

 

[Over the volcano]

Was talking to a buddy of mine (Hawks fan) about the Swayman situation and I shared with him my viewpoint that paying goalies premium money isn't worth it. He sent me this link:

Carey Price and the Value of NHL Goalies

The Montreal Canadiens rewarded their franchise netminder with a contract that occupies roughly 14 percent of their salary cap. Is Price—or any goalie—worth that investment?

magazine.wharton.upenn.edu

Its from 2018 and was written after the Price contract was signed, but it lines up exactly with my point of view. I never saw any empirical evidence to back up my gut instinct until I read this. I'd argue the gap between save % standard deviation and goals per game spread has even narrowed further since this study was conducted.

I forget which GM it was who recently said there was no way they would deal a mid to early first round pick for Ullmark because goalies in general are just too unstable year to year to be worth it

 

[CDJ]

I'm with you. I have serious issues with Bruins ownership & management but not this time.

Swayman wants to be paid like a goaltender who's already made 300+ starts & has some hardware on his resume instead of what's there now- a mere 132 games and 1 All Star selection. It's ridiculous as well as entitled. Want to get paid elite bucks? Then put up stats like the elite- Shesterkin, Vasilefsky, etc. or shut the f*** up. And that goes double for your asshole agent.

Jeremy Swayman can be an elite #1 goaltender but he's not there yet and he shouldn't be paid like he is.

His career high in games played in an 82 game season was 44! He hasn’t even proved he can handle 60 games like a goalie being paid that money must be able to do

 

[JAD]

Do they make it with Korpisalo playing 45 games and Bussi backing up??

Assuming Swayman does not sign or is somehow traded ... it would not surprise me if they brought in a veteran goalie and maybe a proven wing or center with the cap space via some trade or combination of tades at some point in the season ... after December 1st???

 

[xStanleyCupsFor]

He don't sign that he deserves to sit the year.This is getting pathetic because Swayman all butt hurt over arbitration. Sweeney should have added that 2nd yr u ask me.

Maybe the Bruins should throw in an emotional support dog to sweeten the pot, to help Mr business school get over the scarring he's suffered

 

[Montecristo]

I would hope any swayman trade would bring back a good return plus a halfway okay vet goalie to backfill with korp

 

[bruinsfan1968]

I'd be safe to say that, if Swayman had a different agent, he would have already been signed to a good deal and term for both sides. But here they are exchanging shots across the bow, if you will, creating some angst on both sides.

 

[RoccoF14]

I forget which GM it was who recently said there was no way they would deal a mid to early first round pick for Ullmark because goalies in general are just too unstable year to be worth it.

For me, its not even the consistency. Its just the fact that the incremental salary you pay for a top 5 guy isn't worth the incremental results you get.

Take last year. Swayman and Ullmark had almost identical numbers. Both very good, top 10 years. One's making $5mil, the other.......lets assume $8mil this year. Even IF you assume Swayman has a year similar to Hellebuyck did last year (not counting the shitty performance in the playoffs), is that worth an additional $3mil? What about if Swayman has a similar year this year as he did last? Is that better than having Ullmark +$3mil in cap space? That could have gotten you a player like Jeff Skinner or Adam Henrique (or whomever...)

 

[DKH]

Maybe the Bruins should throw in an emotional support dog to sweeten the pot, to help Mr business school get over the scarring he's suffered

Dogs are good ~ can’t hurt

I’m on the fence they throw a puppy and a dozen Jordan’s blueberry muffins I’m signing

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I forget which GM it was who recently said there was no way they would deal a mid to early first round pick for Ullmark because goalies in general are just too unstable year to year to be worth it

Fitzgerald in NJ

 

[Over the volcano]

For me, its not even the consistency. Its just the fact that the incremental salary you pay for a top 5 guys isn't worth the results you get.

Take last year. Swayman and Ullmark had almost identical numbers. Both very good, top 10 years. One's making $5mil, the other.......lets assume $8mil this year. Even IF you assume Swayman has a year similar to Hellebuyck did last year (not counting the shitty performance in the playoffs), is that worth an additional $3mil? What about if Swayman has a similar year this year as he did last? Is that better than having Ullmark +$3mil in cap space?

I have no problem with them building a playoff roster - and Swayman's performance last year certainly makes a case for him over Ullmark and Hellebuyck when it comes to that. But it was 12 games. Who's to say they will be repeated or can be counted upon for 8 more years let alone the next two.

If he were confident in his game he would bet on himself and look for a short term deal and then cash in big when every team in the league can bid against each other. Pushing for long years and long $ now makes me think that even he knows there's a good chance his performance won't last.

 

[GordonHowe]

Good post!

Thank you!

 

[lopey]

Did i miss neely on felger?

 

[JAD]

its still risky for swayman to do a short term contract. Maybe his health degrades or the league figures out how to score on him. You never can tell. Maybe he won’t be worth 10 in 3 years. Or maybe he gets huhurt.

I though Swayman believed in himself and that he was going to be the second coming of all goalie Greats?

So, why should Boston be the only one's to take all the risk. I think they are taking an awful risk with their cap ... 8 x 8 is a Gross overpayment. And I thought I was being overly fair in my previous offers in the mid 7s.
I'm beginning to get a little irritated at the arrogance of the persumptuous asking price.

 

[I Hate Philadelphia]

Next topic title better be "Part 64million"

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Fitzgerald in NJ

yet he did it anyways and included a decent bottom pair guy in Bahl.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

yet he did it anyways and included a decent bottom pair guy in Bahl.

Not really. It's their own pick this year (which any projection would be later in the round). He was asked about trading their #10 this year for a goalie and scoffed at it.

 

[Smitty93]

His career high in games played in an 82 game season was 44! He hasn’t even proved he can handle 60 games like a goalie being paid that money must be able to do

How would you feel if I told you a certain other Bruins goalie who signed an 8 yr deal starting their age 26 season had a career high games played of 45 (39 starts), and 1 more career start (126 vs 125) and the cap hit % they signed for would be $9.6M with this year's salary cap?

 

[GordonHowe]

Brad Marchand preaches patience amid Jeremy Swayman contract drama

Amid the ongoing drama between Jeremy Swayman and the Bruins' contract talks, Brad Marchand tried to take the temperature down Tuesday.

www.boston.com