Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman: VII - agreed to 8 x 8.25 aav

[smithformeragent]

One could make the argument that we're beating a dead horse here.

So be it. Discuss, if you so choose. We'll keep all the Swayman talk contained to this thread.

If you have nothing meaningful to contribute to the conversation, move along.

We will not have this devolve into thread hijacking and flaming of other posters.

@Gee Wally

We have numerous deletions and more in here. We know tension and emotions are high.
But you folks must simply stop taking personal shots at each. Stay to topic.

If not we will be left with no choice other than adding thread bans.

Click to read more...

 

[UConn126]

The simplest deduction is that the Bruins were at 8x$7.8M and Neely raised their offer in public on the fly.

Gross was somewhere north of $8.5M and lowered his ask via Seravelli on the fly.

Who knows? But this seems at least a bit towards Occam's Razor.

Get out of here with such a reasonable, level-headed take!

 

[smithformeragent]

fair enough but the question still stands. 20 years is either a very lucky streak or the Bruins are really good at evaluating goalie talent. your remark leans more towards the ability to evaluate goalie talent which means they might actually know what Sways ceiling is as well as Korpisalo's better than any of us armchair gms.

when is the last time a goalie left the bruins system and got better?

We may be close to finding out.

They brought Manny Fernandez in to be the #1 and Thomas held the job. Fernandez was cooked.

So I don’t know if they get credit for Thomas.

Rask was a great acquisition.

Ullmark was one of the best free agency signings they’ve ever made. Excellent value.

Did they take Korpisalo back thinking that Essensa could work his magic? Different when you’re banking on him to play 50 games for you rather than 25.

 

[Ladyfan]

Guessing the rest of the brass gave him what for.

Yikes....

 

[Scotto74]

then skimp around the Korpisalo's and Peeke's of the world. They don't seem to mind that much about having Mike Reilly's 1.3 mil on the cap this year. Neither are close to being as important to the success of this team as Swayman. This is what I don't get. He is one of the top three most important players on the team (4 if you count Marchand) and people are acting like he's Jake Debrusk. 9.5-10 mil yeah take some offers but 8.5 or whatever come on.

you lost me with "if you count Marchand". That guy is the heart of this team and still one of the best players in his position. Also makes very low cap money for what he brings and also sets the tone night in and night out. If you want to pay a goalie $10M and feel he is more important than a $6.125 cap hit player that brings all that then you are not really thinking about the cap at all.

 

[Rivrfront]

how does : Zigras + Gibson for Swayman sound ?

 

[BMC]

I am generally anti Sweeney and management. In this, especially as time has passed and especially yesterday, firmly on their side.

Swayman needs to decide himself and soon. Not the agent. Himself.

I'm with you. I have serious issues with Bruins ownership & management but not this time.

Swayman wants to be paid like a goaltender who's already made 300+ starts & has some hardware on his resume instead of what's there now- a mere 132 games and 1 All Star selection. It's ridiculous as well as entitled. Want to get paid elite bucks? Then put up stats like the elite- Shesterkin, Vasilefsky, etc. or shut the f*** up. And that goes double for your asshole agent.

Jeremy Swayman can be an elite #1 goaltender but he's not there yet and he shouldn't be paid like he is.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Yikes....

I mean they probably don't want it to become the SInden era again and lose out on the Modano's, Forsberg's and Roenick's of the world and be bridesmaids again. Players seem to love to come to Boston now, they have done a great job in that regard.

you lost me with "if you count Marchand". That guy is the heart of this team and still one of the best players in his position. Also makes very low cap money for what he brings and also sets the ton night in and night out. If you want to pay a goalie $10M and feel he is more important than a $6.125 cap hit player that brings all that then you are not really thinking about the cap at all.

Meant future wise He's also not getting 10 mil so I am not sure where that keeps coming from.

 

[Ladyfan]

Prior to this contract negotiation, what was the last time Sweeney and a player had an issue ?
There is probably one, but I cannot remember it.

Great point!

 

[JOKER 192]

Another interesting think I've noticed in this debate is that regardless if you're pro-managment or pro-Sway , it seems pretty unanimous that 8/8 is a more than fair offer.

 

[BamBamCam]

how does : Zigras + Gibson for Swayman sound ?

I like Ingram, Doan and Iginla better

 

[I Hate Philadelphia]

Yep, he's better than Swayman confirmed. We're good.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Last year, B's were 30th in goals against, but 15th in expected goals against.

Ullmark and Swayman have saved a lot of high danger attempts the last few seasons.

The defense has been leakier lately than in years past.

NHL Team Stats

Stats and Graphs For All NHL Teams

moneypuck.com

So based on that last years goalies saved them almost a goal every other game. Impressive.

 

[Kegs]

I mean technically Neely wasn’t wrong. Once you start adding in Dunkin donuts ads he will be easily at 8 per :p

 

[McGarnagle]

how does : Zigras + Gibson for Swayman sound ?

Gibson has been on a steady downward trajectory since 2018-19 and at this point wouldn't be worth what he's making, even retained. But Zegras would be dynamic on the second line if healthy.

 

[smithformeragent]

Another interesting think I've noticed in this debate is that regardless if you're pro-managment or pro-Sway , it seems pretty unanimous that 8/8 is a more than fair offer.

I think that this is what the Bruins' brass wants the narrative to be.

However, by locking in at 8 years for that cap hit, Swayman likely leaves millions on the table during his prime years.

If I'm Swayman, give me the $8m per, but times 2 years and I want another bite at the apple when I can lock in at $10m AAV.

If I'm the club, I say the $8m per is only good if you go long term. If you want 2 years instead, it's at $6.5m.

 

[ON3M4N]

Last year, B's were 30th in goals against, but 15th in expected goals against.

Ullmark and Swayman have saved a lot of high danger attempts the last few seasons.

The defense has been leakier lately than in years past.

NHL Team Stats

Stats and Graphs For All NHL Teams

moneypuck.com

I think a lot of people under estimate just how much Ullmark & Swayman bailed this team out last year.

 

[Bodit9]

I think that this is what the Bruins' brass wants the narrative to be.

However, by locking in at 8 years for that cap hit, Swayman likely leaves millions on the table during his prime years.

If I'm Swayman, give me the $8m per, but times 2 years and I want another bite at the apple when I can lock in at $10m AAV.

If I'm the club, I say the $8m per is only good if you go long term. If you want 2 years instead, it's at $6.5m.

Sway should've done a 4 year bridge. Would've maximized his earnings

 

[smithformeragent]

I think a lot of people under estimate just how much Ullmark & Swayman bailed this team out last year.

And the season before.

It was breakaway city at times when they were lighting the world on fire during the regular season.

The Claude Julien Bruins, they were not.

 

[dangermike]

I think that this is what the Bruins' brass wants the narrative to be.

However, by locking in at 8 years for that cap hit, Swayman likely leaves millions on the table during his prime years.

If I'm Swayman, give me the $8m per, but times 2 years and I want another bite at the apple when I can lock in at $10m AAV.

If I'm the club, I say the $8m per is only good if you go long term. If you want 2 years instead, it's at $6.5m.

and this is where the chicklets "report" comes from i think -

8xsomething close to 8 OR 3/4x6.5

 

[smithformeragent]

and this is where the chicklets "report" comes from i think -

8xsomething close to 8 OR 3/4x6.5

Right.

You don't get the best of both worlds, player.

You can lock in at a healthy $8m per, or you can take the high end bridge deal.

Choose.

 

[Scotto74]

We may be close to finding out.

They brought Manny Fernandez in to be the #1 and Thomas held the job. Fernandez was cooked.

So I don’t know if they get credit for Thomas.

Rask was a great acquisition.

Ullmark was one of the best free agency signings they’ve ever made. Excellent value.

Did they take Korpisalo back thinking that Essensa could work his magic? Different when you’re banking on him to play 50 games for you rather than 25.

all good points.

when they brought Fernandez in Thomas was in his third year playing over 30 games and not a backup and posted .917 and .905 the two years leading up to that.

the year Fernandez came in to challenge Timmy for his spot Timmy put up .921 and Fernandez played 4 games.

the next year Thomas played 54 with a .933 and Fernandez played 28 with a .910. I wouldn't call that cooked i would say Thomas won the job and that seems to be the start of the Bruins trying to carry two every solid goalies very season.

2008-2009
Thomas - Fernandez

2009-2012
Thomas .915; .938; .920- Rask .931; .918; .929 - For 3 full seasons after Rask stole the backup role from Fernandez after Thomas stole the starting job from Fernandez

2012-2013
Rask .929 - Khudobin .920

2013-2014
Rask .930 -Johnson .925

2014-2015
Rask .922 - Svedberg .918

2015-2016
Rask .915 - Gustavsson .908

2016 - 2017
Rask .915 - Khudobin .904

2017 - 2018
Rask .919 - Khudobin .913

2018 - 2019
Rask .912 - Halak .922

2019 - 2020
Rask .929 - Halak .919

2020 - 2021
Rask ..913 - Halak .905

2021 - 2022
Ullmark .917 - Swayman .914

2022 - 2023
Ullmark .938 - Swayman .920

thats a pretty crazy history of goalie duos with None of them having a sv % under .904 at the lowest.

i would love to go back and look at the boards worries between the 2020-20210 season and the 2021-2022 season when we went from Rask/Halak to Ullmark/Swayman. I am sure the comments were look what we went from last year to this year its going to be a dumpster fire lets fire everyone.

worked out pretty good.

 

[dangermike]

Right.

You don't get the best of both worlds, player.

You can lock in at a healthy $8m per, or you can take the high end bridge deal.

Choose.

that bridge deal would pay 6 mil more than saros who had a resume that was similar to sway (if not better)

 

[GordonHowe]

I'm sure it is not helping at all that the Bruins will need to cut some $ from the payroll to fit in Swayman at any of these higher $ AAVs we're hearing about. They're dancing on the knife edge at $8M. If it's (much) more than that, they not only have to swallow an AAV pill they don't want to, they also need to carve out room at the expense of the roster.

So... it's not just a matter of signing Swayman it's also a matter of making peace with whatever 2024 roster fallout ensues. How would people feel if they get Swayman done... but need to deal somebody pronto making $1-2M or more per? I don't find it ideal to have Korpisalo around at his cap hit. That's a double edged sword. On the one hand, he is insurance (if you say so) if Swayman isn't in net. On the other hand, his cap hit makes it harder to make the cap/roster work once Swayman is signed.

If I have the scenario wrong, I'm sure somebody will correct me.

Great post. Thank you for reiterating an important point.

 

[smithformeragent]

that bridge deal would pay 6 mil more than saros who had a resume that was similar to sway (if not better)

And I see that Shesterkin's bridge was $5.67m x4.

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[Caper Bruins fan]

Sorry , I was out but has Neely been on Felger and Mazz yet ?