Great, I'm writing this and Neely speaks ... go figure.
Talking hypotheticals again so nobody take anything as gospel or get all wound up ... and there is some truth and some sarcasm...
Some people may be wondering what the problem is with paying Swayman now for what he 'feels' he might be worth on the market 4 or 6 years from now doing so in order to protect his value should other goalies seek higher contracts with a rising league cap.
Maybe some don't understand the concept of unrealized gains.
ASSUMING Swayman is asking 9 - 10 mil per yr (I think 8.5 is too much but that's just me)
He is asking to be paid for a fictitious outcome.
He wants to be paid for what might be.
He is assuming he will be a top goalie in the league.
He is assuming the cap will keep increasing.
He is assuming other goalies will be paid more by other teams as a result of the cap increases.
He is assuming if that happens he won't be paid his fair share.
Believe me I understand the business investment ratios when calculating investment property outlay to acquire and projected profit income over time. And how Swayman's cap hit would decrease percentage wise against the cap over time assuming the cap continues to rise. But Swayman also has to understand the Bruins have a limited amount of cap space this year (less than the total due to internal budgeting - this contract is not the only expense sill to be figured). The Bruins simply can not extend an offer beyond a certain number without drastically altering the structure of the team this year and in turn years to come. To do so could have catastrophic ramifications to the organization's operating model, team's current and future success, and player chemistry culture.
Now assume I have a 3/2 ranch house on and acre of land i have to sell. I put a for sale sign out front. All the comp's of other similar houses in the area are selling at around 250k, a few higher, most lower. Someone brings me an offer of 260k fair market value. I say no thank you I want 425k because I've done my research and all the stats, all the financial forecasts, all the lenders, banks, mortgage companies and financial institutions tell me if trends continue the house in 4 - 5 years will be worth 400 - 450k. So because of that I want 425k now to sell the house.
What do you think would happen? Which one of you would pay me that, for the house, now? Because if you will, let me tell you about the house I'm now living in.....
I know it's silly, it would never happen, hyperbole to make a point. I could see this playing like a sitcom. Sweeney and Neely are sitting at the negotiating table Swayman and his agent walk in sit down. Swayman says I want to paid this much per year. Sweeney and Neely kinda silently look at each other for a moment then burst out laughing until they realize he was serious.
The current market usually sets the price range. A person can ask more than market value and unless someone is foolish and uninformed or has so much uncapped money the risk of overspending doesn't apply the person may be waiting a long while for the market to catch up to the asking price.
The Bruins are under NO obligation to offer Swayman more than the current market value, if that. I am assuming that Boston has already made a more than fair offer at or better than current market value and more then fair for his body of work to date. Swayman may feel he is worth more, but he doesn't have the resume yet to back it up.
Once an offer is signed all risk lies 100 percent with the Bruins. If Swayman never again plays as good or better than the adrenaline driven playoffs of last spring and is only average the rest of his contract he still gets paid. That is money in the bank for Swayman. The Bruins are stuck with him and his contract unless they can find a taker. Now, if he plays awesome it is a win, win, for both parties.
Now, if Swayman chooses not to sign he can sit down with his business economics professor and discuss why Boston didn't want to pay what he 'felt' he was worth. And that is one conversation I would be interested in hearing.
If Swayman chooses to sit the Bruins still have a business to run and must make decisions to move on without him for the benefit of the team. Doing so may reduce further the available cap space should Swayman change his mind. Swayman can sit and hope the Bruins falter without him, or that another team presents him with an offer sheet. But as I said in a previous post any reasonable offer the Bruins will match. Any outrageous offer and the Bruins will happily take the compensation. The longer this plays out the less likely Swayman gets near what he was hoping, at least in Boston.
Personally I would give Swayman two offers (like i said in a previous post) to choose from: 37m over 5yr or 63mil over 8yrs ... one or the other before opening night or the offers are pulled and replaced with 54mil over 8yrs good until December.
IF 8 x 8 is true ... it has to drop once the season starts.