Post-Game Talk: Jarry, GMR, and CODY CECI bring their "A" game!

[radapex]

People seem to be using Malkin and Zucker’s xGF% to defend their usage. Crosby and Rodrigues have pretty dominant numbers together.

In a small sample size, absolutely. Except for their abysmal 25% GF%, meaning that for every goal they scored they'd given up 3.

 

[radapex]

I don't know that it's even a question of whether Sid is better suited to have watered down linemates as much as it's clear that (a) there's no clear difference between the impact of GCR and GMR and (b) it's impossible to imagine Sid being worse with the watered down options this team presently offers than Malkin has been, so it MAY be worth testing that to see if the team collectively plays like they did last night.

Of course, this presupposes that GMR builds on last night before Sid returns and, if they do, that Sully would try to sell it/Sid would be willing to buy it.

In other words, the chances of it happening are between infinitesimally small and none and infinitely closer to none at that.

Given the WOWY charts I'd posted before, the best way to summarize it based on current sample size is that Malkin is a non-factor with the leftovers but Sid has been detrimental with them. And herein lies the problem with how the team has been run -- we're at a point in their respective careers that they both need help on their wings. But that kind of help is expensive, especially in a cap league, unless you've got young skilled guys coming in to fill the void -- which is the exact role the likes of Guentzel, Dumoulin, Rust, Sheary, etc had in the back-to-back cups. I think every one individually is probably more expensive now than they were all together in those years.

 

[radapex]

I think you could easily sell it to Sid as a temporary thing, especially if the FO brought back one of the players he wants to play with. It'd be harder to sell to the fans and the media, hence the screaming here every time it's brought up.

Honest question - which player do you suppose that would be? Unless you've got the fountain of youth to bring back Kunitz and/or Dupuis, I feel like the only guy Sid would want is Guentzel.

 

[Big Poppa Pump]

Lafferty was in the box for 4 minutes. It should have been evened out.

Sullivan doesn't play Kappy on the PK, so there's why the minutes aren't even.

 

[bganch17]

Based on what? Because of a strong run last year? Crosby/Guentzel were a line when we won the Cup in 2017 and Guentzel tied the rookie record for goals in a playoffs. Crosby/Guentzel were a combo when Crosby finished 2nd in Hart voting and Guentzel recorded his first and only 40 goal season a couple of years back. Guentzel/Crosby torched Philly and were the only line that showed up versus Washington in 2018.

You're acting like Crosby/Guentzel has no track record and Malkin/Guentzel have years of dominant performances behind them.

You're also ignoring the fact that if you go with that line -- WHICH I SAID I DON'T EVEN CARE IF THEY DO -- then you're getting very little out of Crosby's line.

So you're not really fixing anything since we'll either be relying on Crosby's line with Guentzel to carry us or Malkin's line with Guentzel to carry us. The problem you're ignoring is we're not going to be a 2-line team until they add a winger who can play with whichever center doesn't have Guentel that can do the stuff Guentzel does that our current wingers can't.

Look at it this way... Malkin and Guentzel have been playing some pretty bad, uninspired hockey this season and Crosby has been meh with a few strong games. We finally roll GMR and all of a sudden Malkin and Guentzel are rolling, along with the rest of the team. Guentzel and Malkin both had their best game of the season.

I would take Malkin and Guentzel rolling at an elite level over meh Crosby and bad Guentzel any day. Even if you want to argue Crosby was playing good most of the season, it doesn't change anything.. Because Crosby has definitely not been playing elite and we all agree Guentzel has been playing uninspired, bad hockey this year.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Honest question - which player do you suppose that would be? Unless you've got the fountain of youth to bring back Kunitz and/or Dupuis, I feel like the only guy Sid would want is Guentzel.

No, I meant make a move for one. Or bring back Simon for a few weeks.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Or, incidentally, if Jake looks better with Geno, give Rust to Crosby and see if that makes a difference. I think when the whole top 6 is struggling, it makes little to no sense to cater to either of the stars, since it's the coach's responsibility to get those lines clicking as much as possible. I just think this team should explore all of its options before jettisoning its Conn Smythe winning 2C or trading futures or signing some dumb UFA.

But I am not a management brain genius who drives a Kia.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Or, incidentally, if Jake looks better with Geno, give Rust to Crosby and see if that makes a difference. I think when the whole top 6 is struggling, it makes little to no sense to cater to either of the stars, since it's the coach's responsibility to get those lines clicking as much as possible. I just think this team should explore all of its options before jettisoning its Conn Smythe winning 2C or trading futures or signing some dumb UFA.

But I am not a management brain genius who drives a Kia.

I think Jiggy might be on to something with regards to the duo of Guentzel/Rust as a wing pairing has chemistry rather than either of them individually being able to turn Sid and/or Geno around if they're split up.

So it's almost a situation where you have to play both with one center and then figure out who to put with the other center rather than giving one to each.

 

[bganch17]

The cool thing about Hall is that we can keep him if it works out. All you gotta do is trade Zucker this summer and use Petts + Zucker caphit.

Hall-Sid-Kap
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust

That's hawt.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think Jiggy might be on to something with regards to the duo of Guentzel/Rust as a wing pairing has chemistry rather than either of them individually being able to turn Sid and/or Geno around if they're split up.

So it's almost a situation where you have to play both with one center and then figure out who to put with the other center rather than giving one to each.

For sure, but at the same time, I wouldn't stay married to any lines this year unless they've become lights-out killing machines. I get that Sid's a creature of habit and needs his certainty, I get that Malkin's having a slow start/down year. And while I don't want us to go back to the "grab lines out of a hat" days of yore, I think the coaching staff needs to start thinking of ways to make this roster work instead of just treading water. Maybe it won't work. It probably won't work. But that's something we need to figure out now so we can make moves/plan instead of deciding at the TDL.

I feel like the need to hang on to statistically good (but not super hot) lines is fine and good in a normal year with a better Pens team, but we don't have either of those things.

And also, this is all predicated on Crosby coming back in a game or two, not Crosby being out for a few weeks. So, in the latter case, you really don't have many options besides treading water.

That said, I would for sure explore getting Hall if his price is falling, if for nothing else then to see if that makes Zucker/Rust expendable/tradeable for more assets come draft time.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Honest question - which player do you suppose that would be? Unless you've got the fountain of youth to bring back Kunitz and/or Dupuis, I feel like the only guy Sid would want is Guentzel.

They went hard after TJ Oshie before landing Kessel.

That would have been the perfect Sid winger. Talent, grit, some speed, extremely high hockey IQ.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

For sure, but at the same time, I wouldn't stay married to any lines this year unless they've become lights-out killing machines. I get that Sid's a creature of habit and needs his certainty, I get that Malkin's having a slow start/down year. And while I don't want us to go back to the "grab lines out of a hat" days of yore, I think the coaching staff needs to start thinking of ways to make this roster work instead of just treading water. Maybe it won't work. It probably won't work. But that's something we need to figure out now so we can make moves/plan instead of deciding at the TDL.

I feel like the need to hang on to statistically good (but not super hot) lines is fine and good in a normal year with a better Pens team, but we don't have either of those things.

And also, this is all predicated on Crosby coming back in a game or two, not Crosby being out for a few weeks. So, in the latter case, you really don't have many options besides treading water.

That said, I would for sure explore getting Hall if his price is falling, if for nothing else then to see if that makes Zucker/Rust expendable/tradeable for more assets come draft time.

Be careful what you wish for. When Sullivan starts experimenting with lines, that's when we see E-Rod and ZAR make appearances in the top six to help jumpstart Sid and Geno, with Kapanen finding himself on the 4th line getting 9 minutes per night.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Be careful what you wish for. When Sullivan starts experimenting with lines, that's when we see E-Rod and ZAR make appearances in the top six to help jumpstart Sid and Geno, with Kapanen finding himself on the 4th line getting 9 minutes per night.

I mean, if it works, I'd be fine with it. And if it doesn't, the silver lining is, new coaching search!

 

[tom_servo]

Kapanen has responded so well to his benching. That's a good sign. Say what you will about Sullivan but the players respect him.

 

[bganch17]

FWIW, I'm not criticizing Lafferty in the line-up per se, I'm criticizing the fact that he gets way more ice time than his play should indicate. It's just kind of comical. Kapanen gets 11 minutes, scores two goals and is part of an effective line, Lafferty gets nearly 15.

Lafferty on the PK...

 

[Pens x]

Like I said...

Tanev-Crosby-Kapanen could work. If they give it a chance.

Tanev on the second line?

 

[Darren McCord]

Sullivan doesn't play Kappy on the PK, so there's why the minutes aren't even.

I know but Lafferty also cant pk while he is in the box.

 

[Gurglesons]

Be careful what you wish for. When Sullivan starts experimenting with lines, that's when we see E-Rod and ZAR make appearances in the top six to help jumpstart Sid and Geno, with Kapanen finding himself on the 4th line getting 9 minutes per night.

He’s basically a healthy Zucker away from that.

 

[Tacitus Kilgore]

Kapanen has responded so well to his benching. That's a good sign. Say what you will about Sullivan but the players respect him.

He's certainly no PLD in that respect. Hopefully Sully doesn't take this as a que to go full Torts and bench people all the time

 

[Ryder71]

The thing that gets ignored in this is they also spent the first 5 and a half games of the season with Rodrigues on their line. Crosby had 1 goal and 0 assists at even strength in those 5 and a half games with Rodrigues bogging them down.

Since the switch to Rust when Rodrigues got hurt, in 14 and a half games without Rodrigues on that line, Crosby has 3 goals and 8 assists at even strength.

That's at even strength, including OT, mind you. But the fact Crosby's production at ES is 11 points in 14.5 games since he no longer had to drag around Rodrigues, I'd say arguments about his lack of production are incorrect.

3on3 is not an accurate indication. Sid to his credit has done well there, but that's a whole different animal. Let's not be intellectually dishonest here. If you believe 5on5 and 3on3 are anything similar I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Ryder71]

Sid has 1 5v5 goal this season, as does Malkin. Guentzel leads the team with 6, Rust is second with 5, and Zucker + Tanev are tied for third with 4.

For individual expected goals (5v5), Rust leads the way at 5.26. Guentzel is second at 4.01, and Crosby third at 3.03. Malkin clocks in 10th at 1.35, right between Jared McCann and Colton Sceviour.

High danger scoring chances rank about the same. Rust is first at 31, Guentzel second at 30, Crosby third at 14. Malkin is tied for 13th with Jankowski. (Brady Tkachuk leads the league with 38, so 31 is an exceptional number).

So these numbers suggest that Crosby is generating a lot of chances but not finishing them, while Malkin isn't generating chances at all. And it really goes to back the idea that Guentel & Rust are the ones driving their lines.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

And Sid had the benefit of playing with Jake and quite a bit with Rust. Tell me how has Geno done with those linemates in comparison?

 

[Pittsburgh1776]

What's going to sink us is that we're looking at long-established 4th line wingers (like Tanev) as viable possibilities on Crosby's line because we don't have enough skilled players to even stick a Matt Cooke-like band-aid there. A line of Tanev-Crosby-Kapanen isn't going to be a threat to anyone IMO, and makes us ridiculously easy to shut down because you only have to worry about 1 line.

You have no way to know that because it's never been tried.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Matheson was mixed feelings. I was pretty upset but I had hope because if you are going to give a young guy 8 years x 5 million there's gotta be something there.

Did research on him and was hopefuly his size and skating would work and he has far exceeded my expectations.

I won't lie one thing to mention is when looking at his offensive numbers in Florida his last year aren't as bad as you would expect from a defenseman who didn't get powerplay time.

Here's why Panthers fans hated Matheson, and why it's reasonable to have optimism about him, all in one chart:

 

[OtherThingsILike]

But... they have a meaningful 3rd line with an adequate 3c. If you slot TB there, fine, see how it goes.

I'd want two deals to happen, I don't care what it takes...

Dumoulin/Petts for Rakell.

Some form of (not all) Zucker, Rust, McCann, Tanev, Kapanen, Jankowski, Riikola, Poulin, Lee, 1st 2022 (if 1st is used a 2nd 2021 must come back) or 2 2nds 2021 & 2022 (if the two 2nds are used a 3rd 2021 must come back) and there's more... assets

1 top forward (Zucker/Rust/Kapanen), 1 secondary forward (McCann/Tanev) and fill in from there. Jankowski, Riikola, Poulin, 1st 2022 (switch out what you think, but it's not impossible)

For Forsberg with one season remaining after this, Granlund UFA - 50% retained and 2nd 2021.

Make it happen...

What about Forsberg and Rakell makes you think they'll work on this team? I don't say this as someone who's necessarily opposed to the idea, but as someone who's seen the team trade for 'a winger for Crosby' multiple times and the last time it actually worked was Hossa.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

I think Jiggy might be on to something with regards to the duo of Guentzel/Rust as a wing pairing has chemistry rather than either of them individually being able to turn Sid and/or Geno around if they're split up.

So it's almost a situation where you have to play both with one center and then figure out who to put with the other center rather than giving one to each.

I guess you could always switch the lines at various points during the game. Like, Sid gets Guentzel and Rust for the 15 minutes at the beginning and end of the game, and Malkin gets them for the middle 30 minutes, or something like that.