Jakub Voracek isn't putting much value in "secondary assists"

[Tripod]

In my opinion it's pretty much 60/40 in that 60% of the time the guy who gets the secondary assist doesn't really contribute to the play that much but 40% of the time he does. I think it would be cool if NHL.com started dividing the "assists" category to primary assists and secondary assists, but still count both of them equally to the point total. Basically it wouldn't affect a thing, just show us both of them separately.

I do think every team is different though.

On the PP.....EVERYTHING runs thru Giroux. He is the catalyst to what will happen on the PP.

Choice 1-pass cross ice to Voracek for a 1 timer
Choice 2-pass to slot to Schenn for wrister
Choice 3-pass to Streit for a 1 timer.
Choice 4-pass down low to Simmonds who then either tries to stuff it in or does a blindside backpass to Voracek who usually has a part open net.

This is exactly how 99% of the Flyers PP are played. And on any of the first 3 options if a save is made and we score off the rebound, the play does not happen without Giroux first dictating what will happen.

I won't speak about other teams...but also dmen who can quickly spring a forward man advantage is VERY important as well. And I should know...because without Kimmo and Pronger it has made a BIG difference if how you play.

Points are points.

 

[Flyrs21]

Are people really comparing a secondary assist in a 17-12 all star game, where 12 people from the same team can touch the puck on one possession, to a secondary assist in a regular season game???

 

[Lomez]

Title should read: "Jakub Voracek is a cool, funny dude who doesn't take the 29-goal All-Star Game too seriously and is obviously going to downplay a comparison to Mario Freaking Lemieux."

Bingo, a winner.

*Cue Lemieux making a comeback and scoring 67 points in 22 games before retiring with a bad everything*

Could actually happen...

 

[magic school bus]

Title should read: "Jakub Voracek is a cool, funny dude who doesn't take the 29-goal All-Star Game too seriously and is obviously going to downplay a comparison to Mario Freaking Lemieux."

Yup. Voracek is a chill dude who wouldn't take the bait from a reporter

 

[DanZ]

Plus minus, secondary assists and GAA average are some of the worst stats imo. Terribly hard to use without context yet fans regularly use them

GAA is a team stat even though it is often used as a goalie stat. That doesn't make it a terrible stat, just misused. GAA is a pretty good indicator of what teams are good defensively.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Do you find it odd that the top skilled guys usually are the top of the 2ndary assist list as opposed to random players?

I find it odd that people assume the players with the most secondary assists to be the most skilled player (chicken/egg).

 

[Midnight Judges]

That logic is completely flawed. His logic is "goal scoring is a talent, and goal scoring has a high variance, so a high variance means talent".

No, that is not at all what he is saying. He's merely using the variance for goal scoring as a benchmark. And that variance for goal scoring is actually far less than for secondary assists for players who leave one team and play for another team. -That's kind of the key to the whole thing because it normalizes for coaching styles and team talent levels etc.

I have one more question for the "Secondary assists are just as good as goals" people: Why can't a goal scorer be awarded a secondary assist as well? If it's such an integral important thing that constitutes a necessary set up for the goal, why are we screwing the goal scorers out of them when they clearly (in your opinion) took two actions worthy of being scored?

 

[Helistin]

I find it odd that people assume the players with the most secondary assists to be the most skilled player (chicken/egg).

Yes, the best players tend to have the most secondary assists , just like they tend to have the most goals and primary assists also , no chicken or egg needed to understand that. Of course there will be some outliers , maybe also defensemen compared to forwards get more secondary assists and such.

 

[tempofound]

Yes, 1 article with flawed logic from 4 years ago really supports your argument. Their entire argument is that the more variance in the data, the more skill it takes. That makes absolutely no sense. Just read this paragraph:



That logic is completely flawed. His logic is "goal scoring is a talent, and goal scoring has a high variance, so a high variance means talent". That isn't a sound logical argument. All that data shows is that goal scoring fluctuates more than primary or secondary assists in a season.

As a matter of fact, he completely contradicts himself with this paragraph:



The lower value of R^2 (the closest fit to the trend line) actually shows more consistency, and secondary assists have the lowest variance. So basically, your article of support is **** and poorly reasoned.

I think you're wrong here. He's using Pearsons coefficents, R^2=1 means complete positive correlation, =0 means no correlation.

 

[JWells16]

Title should read: "Jakub Voracek is a cool, funny dude who doesn't take the 29-goal All-Star Game too seriously and is obviously going to downplay a comparison to Mario Freaking Lemieux."

Pretty much.

 

[Shrimper]

Second assists are important. He's just being modest.

 

[daver]

I find it odd that people assume the players with the most secondary assists to be the most skilled player (chicken/egg).

Would you say the players with the most primary assists are the most skilled playmakers?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Would you say the players with the most primary assists are the most skilled playmakers?

I would say there is a much stronger correlation between primary assists and playmaking skills than secondary assists and skills.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Yes, the best players tend to have the most secondary assists , just like they tend to have the most goals and primary assists also , no chicken or egg needed to understand that. Of course there will be some outliers , maybe also defensemen compared to forwards get more secondary assists and such.

There are a lot of outliers.

 

[penguins2946*]

No, that is not at all what he is saying. He's merely using the variance for goal scoring as a benchmark. And that variance for goal scoring is actually far less than for secondary assists for players who leave one team and play for another team. -That's kind of the key to the whole thing because it normalizes for coaching styles and team talent levels etc.

No, what he's doing is equating a large variance to requiring talent, which isn't even remotely true. He's making an assumption, he's arbitrarily saying that a higher variance=more talent required because "goal scoring is a talent", and passing off data as facts from that.

I have one more question for the "Secondary assists are just as good as goals" people: Why can't a goal scorer be awarded a secondary assist as well? If it's such an integral important thing that constitutes a necessary set up for the goal, why are we screwing the goal scorers out of them when they clearly (in your opinion) took two actions worthy of being scored?

Why can't the guy who gets the primary assist also get a secondary assist? He makes a pass, it bounces off the other team right back to him and he feeds the goal scorer? Because it's absolutely stupid, just like your example.

I think you're wrong here. He's using Pearsons coefficents, R^2=1 means complete positive correlation, =0 means no correlation.

The R^2 value he looked to be using was fitting a trend line on excel, which just shows variance of data.

 

[InglewoodJack]

I'm sure when it comes down to it, players are less interested in the statline, and more interested in the actual results. Of course he might wanna sound humble, but at the end of the day, these are all world calss players, and any of them could've been the one to score that second assist.

 

[orby]

This is obviously a dig at Secondary Sidney, the biggest fraud in the league

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

Yeah.. That's not even close to being accurate. Anyone who understands the game realizes that secondary assists are a very important aspect to the eventual goal's creation.

This is simply Jakub Voracek trying to avoid an overwhelming comparison to a top 5 player all time.

Exactly this. I don't think there is a single player in the NHL today that would try to (or even want to) put themselves in regard of the legends of the past. Even Crosby or Ovechkin might be a bit humble comparing any of their own accolades to a Lemieux, Gretzky, etc.

 

[Lomez]

I would say there is a much stronger correlation between primary assists and playmaking skills than secondary assists and skills.

You must be a huge fan of Crosby's then, since it has often been noted on these fine boards that he has the lowest percentage of secondary assists of all the leagues leading scorers every year.

 

[tempofound]

No, what he's doing is equating a large variance to requiring talent, which isn't even remotely true. He's making an assumption, he's arbitrarily saying that a higher variance=more talent required because "goal scoring is a talent", and passing off data as facts from that.






The R^2 value he looked to be using was fitting a trend line on excel, which just shows variance of data.

Yes i know he's using excel but you don't seem to be getting the meaning of the R^2 coefficent. It measures the degree of linear dependance, or more precisely "explained variation divided by total variation", it's not a direct measure of variation. In fact it's inversly proportional to total variation

So high value of R^2 means high degree of dependance, in this case: a goal scorers goal scoring this year is about 25% dependent on his goal scoring last year. Low value means low degree of dependance, in this case: number of secondary assists this year is only about 5% dependent on number of secondary assists last year.

I'm not saying his analysis is correct, i'm certainly no statistician and i would love someone more knowledgeable chiming in, but your interpretation of his argument is faulty.

He's saying goal scoring is highly variable from season to season, in fact last years goal production only explains 25% of this years goal production but since we all agree goal scoring is a real skill, lets use those 25% as benchmark for the lowest degree of variation which constitutes a skill. And since secondary assists seem to be much more variable with R^2 at only 5% that would put it at such a high degree of variation that it couldn't really reflect a players skill.

EDIT:In fact just from googling about regression analysis i think we should be highly wary of his results. Scientists will generally want R^2 above 50% to consider a model good so this guy seems to have shown that neither goal scoring or playmaking are really skills. I think the real conlusion is that a hockey players point production can't be predicted with any real reliabilty at all just from their production last year.

 

[eklunds source]

GAA is a team stat even though it is often used as a goalie stat. That doesn't make it a terrible stat, just misused. GAA is a pretty good indicator of what teams are good defensively.

GAA is a pretty good indicator of how frequently teams allow goals.

That should not be confused with good defensively. Sometimes you can play lights out defense and they score 3 goals on a weird rebound, a bouncing puck, and one misplay by the goalie. Sometimes you allow 59 shots (53 of them being credible scoring chances) and your goalie pitches a shutout.

Teams who have a lower GAA tend to be better defensively, because they tend to allow less scoring chances... but in any given season, even after 82 games, GAA will not measure defensive ability reliably.

 

[gamer1035]

How about the nhl just eliminate the secondary assist. It shouldn't have the same value as a primary assist, or a goal.

Yes I know on the rare occasion the secondary assist is the reason the goal was scored.

 

[FlyRoutine]

Obviously not a rule but you can score a goal without any help from any other players. You cant get an assist unless someone actually finishes. The secondary assist man is more at the mercy of his teammates then the assist man who's more at the mercy of his teammates then the goal scorer.

The same thing can be said about the goalscorer. The most goals in this sport arent scored because of pure individuality.

putting the puck in the net>passing the puck to the guy who puts the puck into the net>passing the puck to the guy who passes the puck to the goal scorer.

Do you, or did you ever play hockey yourself?

In many cases the assist/secondary assist is harder to pull of than the scored goal itself. At least you cant say in every case "putting the puck into the net>passing". Pulling of an assist/secondary assist isnt even just about only passing.

2-way centers/players get far too less appreciation than they deserve because of opinions like yours. If you ever pulled off a few backchecks and breakout(s) in a single shift youself, that lead to a scoring chance, you should know what I mean.

 

[Classicnamesup]

I didn't watch the game but go ahead and watch his secondaries. Odds are they were nothing special, just a pass to the guy who made the pass.

This isn't always true but more often than not it is.

 

[DanZ]

GAA is a pretty good indicator of how frequently teams allow goals.

That should not be confused with good defensively. Sometimes you can play lights out defense and they score 3 goals on a weird rebound, a bouncing puck, and one misplay by the goalie. Sometimes you allow 59 shots (53 of them being credible scoring chances) and your goalie pitches a shutout.

Teams who have a lower GAA tend to be better defensively, because they tend to allow less scoring chances... but in any given season, even after 82 games, GAA will not measure defensive ability reliably.

Uhh, yes it will. At the end of the year, the best defensive teams are at the top of the GAA list. The worst defensive teams are at the bottom. It's a pretty good indicator.

One stat is rarely the be-all end-all. It doesn't mean that stat isn't reliable though or a "terrible" stat.