Player Discussion Jake DeBrusk VII

[BigBadBruins7708]

Has anyone pondered the notion that 6M being fair and 7M being outrageous is....a broken way of thinking?

Guys the 1M cannot be that big a mistake over that duration in an escalating cap environment. Seeing people bend themselves into pretzels for 750k to 1M, I don't get it.

There's much bigger cap mistakes out there.

No, look at Toronto. Those "only $1m" overpays stack up. They overpaid Nylander on his RFA deal which led to them overpaying on both Matthews and Marner.

So not only will they cost themselves an extra $1m with Debrusk, there will be down the line cost added in negotiations with other young players

 

[CellyHard]

I don’t understand how most here can go from wanting to see him moved by the TDL to ok with him signing a 6/7m long term deal

When you are talking about that kind of money and length, that’s a core player. I don’t think JD should be due to his inconsistencies

Bertuzzi signed for 5.5 and has better career numbers. His fit in Toronto is bad and you could definitely get him cheaper this offseason…

JD in the 5’s is fair value…anything above that, especially at 7 is outrageous to me and a Toronto-ish kind of move

 

[mflo77]

6 x 6.25
get it done

 

[RoccoF14]

I'd dispute the notion that Tyler Bertuzzi has better career numbers than Jake.

DeBrusk has been a pretty good bet to get you 25 goals a year for a while now, with the exception of the COVID year and the year he and Cassidy had their issues. Yeah, he got out of the gates slow this year, but I still think he's got a chance to still get 25..

$6-6.5mil/yr isn't outlandish.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I don’t understand how most here can go from wanting to see him moved by the TDL to ok with him signing a 6/7m long term deal

When you are talking about that kind of money and length, that’s a core player. I don’t think JD should be due to his inconsistencies

Bertuzzi signed for 5.5 and has better career numbers. His fit in Toronto is bad and you could definitely get him cheaper this offseason…

JD in the 5’s is fair value…anything above that, especially at 7 is outrageous to me and a Toronto-ish kind of move

It’s not fair value when you compare him to other players and the contracts they get, especially when factoring in the cap jump next year.

 

[NDiesel]

I don’t understand how most here can go from wanting to see him moved by the TDL to ok with him signing a 6/7m long term deal

When you are talking about that kind of money and length, that’s a core player. I don’t think JD should be due to his inconsistencies

Bertuzzi signed for 5.5 and has better career numbers. His fit in Toronto is bad and you could definitely get him cheaper this offseason…

JD in the 5’s is fair value…anything above that, especially at 7 is outrageous to me and a Toronto-ish kind of move

I dont think Bertuzzi's 5.5 mil is a fair comparison because he clearly took a 1 year discount contract in a favourable spot to make his next contract higher.

 

[DKH]

8 at 6.5 M first 4 years NMC last four 16 no trade list

 

[goldnblack]

No, look at Toronto. Those "only $1m" overpays stack up. They overpaid Nylander on his RFA deal which led to them overpaying on both Matthews and Marner.

So not only will they cost themselves an extra $1m with Debrusk, there will be down the line cost added in negotiations with other young players

Come on now, Toronto gave those guys the moon. We're talking 6 vs 7.

Charlie, Sway, and other young core Bruins are coming in 7.5 to 9.5.

7 for Jake going into 2030 wouldn't be the end of the world, if 6 is fine. Get him to bend on the structure of the NTC

 

[JoeIsAStud]

I don’t understand how most here can go from wanting to see him moved by the TDL to ok with him signing a 6/7m long term deal

When you are talking about that kind of money and length, that’s a core player. I don’t think JD should be due to his inconsistencies

Bertuzzi signed for 5.5 and has better career numbers. His fit in Toronto is bad and you could definitely get him cheaper this offseason…

JD in the 5’s is fair value…anything above that, especially at 7 is outrageous to me and a Toronto-ish kind of move

Well I wouldn't say most wanted him gone by the tdl.

Also That is your perception with Bertuzzi, an it doesn't match reality.

Both players broke into the league the same year. Jake has played 61 more games, and has 33 more goals . Bertuzzi has 20 more assists. Jake +/- is 92 points better. So Jake is a better scorer, Betuzzi is a better passer, and Jake is a dramatically better 200 foot player. (not using +/- to determine defense, using what I saw with my eyes, Bertuzzi was a trainwreck in his own zone with Boston)

 

[Over the volcano]

I dont think Bertuzzi's 5.5 mil is a fair comparison because he clearly took a 1 year discount contract in a favourable spot to make his next contract higher.

How's that workin for him?

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

Has anyone pondered the notion that 6M being fair and 7M being outrageous is....a broken way of thinking?

Guys the 1M cannot be that big a mistake over that duration in an escalating cap environment. Seeing people bend themselves into pretzels for 750k to 1M, I don't get it.

There's much bigger cap mistakes out there.

sounds like you're responding to me. I said $6M is more than fair, as in I think DeBrusk is getting a better deal than the Bruins if that's the AAV. I don't disagree that $750k isn't a team breaker, but for me the $750k is between $5.25M and $6M.

$7M is just beyond what any comparable player has been getting. I do not think that will be the going rate for middle 6 wingers in a higher cap world, as I think it's wrong to expect all player positions to increase the same as how much the cap goes up. Most of the increased cap is going to go to the top end players making $11+M/yr.

 

[NDiesel]

How's that workin for him?

Not great, should have stayed on Pastas wing

 

[Over the volcano]

Maybe I'm way out of touch but 5 mil seems right market for JDB in Boston. Under 5 is a deal. 6+ is b a n a n a s.

 

[NDiesel]

sounds like you're responding to me. I said $6M is more than fair, as in I think DeBrusk is getting a better deal than the Bruins if that's the AAV. I don't disagree that $750k isn't a team breaker, but for me the $750k is between $5.25M and $6M.

$7M is just beyond what any comparable player has been getting. I do not think that will be the going rate for middle 6 wingers in a higher cap world, as I think it's wrong to expect all player positions to increase the same as how much the cap goes up. Most of the increased cap is going to go to the top end players making $11+M/yr.

I'm not so sure about that last sentence...there are a finite amount of top end players deserving that much money, however there is a lot more middle 6 wingers out there that tend to get overpaid in free agency

 

[Gee Wally]

 

[goldnblack]

sounds like you're responding to me. I said $6M is more than fair, as in I think DeBrusk is getting a better deal than the Bruins if that's the AAV. I don't disagree that $750k isn't a team breaker, but for me the $750k is between $5.25M and $6M.

$7M is just beyond what any comparable player has been getting. I do not think that will be the going rate for middle 6 wingers in a higher cap world, as I think it's wrong to expect all player positions to increase the same as how much the cap goes up. Most of the increased cap is going to go to the top end players making $11+M/yr.

Show your work?

To an extent that's also going to require a projection on the deals we're about to see with this higher cap (which is when Jake is signing).


Teravainen's contract is one we can discuss in relation. Recently we can look at Bertuzzi, Zucker, Tarasenko, Gaudreau, Palat, Burakovsky...

And then project today dollars on this new cap, and 7 years out

 

[goldnblack]

Btw one of the challenges are the really good deals out there.

Like would you rather Nichuskin at 6.25M or Jake at 7M. Obviously that's an easy choice.

Maybe that's a decent comp and a number for the Bruins to try to pin to.
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[wintersej]

I don’t understand how most here can go from wanting to see him moved by the TDL to ok with him signing a 6/7m long term deal

When you are talking about that kind of money and length, that’s a core player. I don’t think JD should be due to his inconsistencies

Bertuzzi signed for 5.5 and has better career numbers. His fit in Toronto is bad and you could definitely get him cheaper this offseason…

JD in the 5’s is fair value…anything above that, especially at 7 is outrageous to me and a Toronto-ish kind of move

Bertuzzi signed in a flat cap environment when everyone was broke was the specific intention of being able to get a bigger deal this offseason when everyone isn't broke.

Its comparing pineapples and starships.

Also, since when does Bertuzzi have better career numbers? They have extremely similar career numbers.

 

[CellyHard]

Well I wouldn't say most wanted him gone by the tdl.

Also That is your perception with Bertuzzi, an it doesn't match reality.

Both players broke into the league the same year. Jake has played 61 more games, and has 33 more goals . Bertuzzi has 20 more assists. Jake +/- is 92 points better. So Jake is a better scorer, Betuzzi is a better passer, and Jake is a dramatically better 200 foot player. (not using +/- to determine defense, using what I saw with my eyes, Bertuzzi was a trainwreck in his own zone with Boston)

Debrusk: .58 career pts/game
Bertuzzi: .64 career pts/game

If I can get Bert at/under 5 million on a short term deal versus Debrusk at 6 or 7 longterm, give me #59 all day long

All it takes is one hot streak from Jake and everyone all of a sudden wants to open the bricks trunk for him...recency bias is real here

 

[goldnblack]

Debrusk: .58 career pts/game
Bertuzzi: .64 career pts/game

If I can get Bert at/under 5 million on a short term deal versus Debrusk at 6 or 7 longterm, give me #59 all day long

All it takes is one hot streak from Jake and everyone all of a sudden wants to open the bricks trunk for him...recency bias is real here

What about Jake's penalty killing? I think that's worth a fair bit. Definitely gives him value your comp can't show. I'd also say durability, potentially.

 

[CellyHard]

What about Jake's penalty killing? I think that's worth a fair bit. Definitely gives him value your comp can't show. I'd also say durability, potentially.

That's all a good point. I think JD is a more complete 200 ft player. His skating is better and he's more of a natural goalscorer. Bertuzzi is a better playmaker, more gritty and a better net front presence.

At the end of the day, If I can get Bert for like 2 million cheaper without a massive long term commitment, it's a no brainer to me.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

That's all a good point. I think JD is a more complete 200 ft player. His skating is better and he's more of a natural goalscorer. Bertuzzi is a better playmaker, more gritty and a better net front presence.

At the end of the day, If I can get Bert for like 2 million cheaper without a massive long term commitment, it's a no brainer to me.

Hey if you can let go of better players and bring in a worse player to save a million bucks you do it all day long right?

 

[Over the volcano]

Btw one of the challenges are the really good deals out there.

Like would you rather Nichuskin at 6.25M or Jake at 7M. Obviously that's an easy choice.

Maybe that's a decent comp and a number for the Bruins to try to pin to.
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The really good deals here are a challenge too - Marchand at 6.25 Coyle at 5+, Zacha at 4.75. I know they were signed at different times but it's hard to picture them dishing out heavy for a hot and cold complimentary middle 6 wing. But what do I know, maybe they see him as a core to build around for the future.

 

[CellyHard]

Bertuzzi signed in a flat cap environment when everyone was broke was the specific intention of being able to get a bigger deal this offseason when everyone isn't broke.

Its comparing pineapples and starships.

Also, since when does Bertuzzi have better career numbers? They have extremely similar career numbers.

If you cant even compare what future contract JD is going to get based on what a very similar player signed for last year then what is even the purpose of discussion here? You start going too far back and then all of a sudden those deals are dated.

I think it holds a little bit of weight

 

[JoeIsAStud]

That's all a good point. I think JD is a more complete 200 ft player. His skating is better and he's more of a natural goalscorer. Bertuzzi is a better playmaker, more gritty and a better net front presence.

At the end of the day, If I can get Bert for like 2 million cheaper without a massive long term commitment, it's a no brainer to me.

But you have to make a decision on Jake, without knowing whether you might be able to sign Bertuzzi for less. They really should be making a decision on Jake before the trade deadline, but yes there is a chance it could go all the way into summer.

Also you don't know what Bertuzzi is willing to sign for. According to rumors they did try to lock him up last year before FA, and they just couldn't get him down to an acceptable price (likely wanted north of 6 mil)

There is certainly no guarantee Bertuzzi is going to sign for less than 6 million next summer