Player Discussion Jack Campbell

[bucks_oil]

The Oilers defense could absolutely be better, I don't think anyone would argue that, but they've still done a reasonable job in suppressing high danger chances and he still couldn't cut it.

Sorry, this is the fault with these "advanced stats" like HDSC. They have a hard time distinguishing between a true 'sure goal' vs a standard shot from the slot... and consequently guys like you can say "we were playing good defense" when anyone watching the games would chuckle at the notion.

Bouchard pinching in for the n-th time to allow yet another controlled two on one or two on zero break results in one high danger chance against. If you suppress 5 routine shots from the slot (also a HDSC) but still give up that one breakway, it's still a sure goal against.

And the fact that the breakdowns are few but catastrophic means the goalie's stats (and both Campbell and Skinner had horrendous HDSC SPCT) will suffer because he hasn't had a chance to stop the easy(er) ones to boost his SPCT.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yeah, no problem, not asking you to be cap expert, just accept that one of the following things would have needed to happen to retain Kostin.... and which one would you choose?
A) McLeod walks
B) Bouchard walks and replaced with UFA up to $2M
C) Kulak or Ceci traded and replaced with a league min guy (like Niemelainen)
D) Foegele traded and replaced with a league min guy full time (like Hamblin)
E) We spent our 1st++ to get rid of Campbell (and replace with a UFA/trade Goalie up to $3M)

Those were the options required to free up the $2M we needed. Without the benefit of hindsight (Campbell), they were all substandard choices.

I'm just making the point that you can't keep saying you would have kept him without saying how and offering up what you would have sacrificed.

Yeah, thanks for the legwork on this. Most of my answers are probably wrong. heh

Leaning to just let McLeod walk. But like I said Ceci or Kulak as well. Felt all those contracts were moveable. Unfortunately my main play was probably getting rid of the Foegele contract, and I realize that would've been a mistake.

So A or C with benefit of hindsight. heh. But I was more into A or D around the time.

Thanks as usual for your posting here. Must read poster.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Sorry, this is the fault with these "advanced stats" like HDSC. They have a hard time distinguishing between a true 'sure goal' vs a standard shot from the slot... and consequently guys like you can say "we were playing good defense" when anyone watching the games would chuckle at the notion.

Bouchard pinching in for the n-th time to allow yet another controlled two on one or two on zero break results in one high danger chance against. If you suppress 5 routine shots from the slot (also a HDSC) but still give up that one breakway, it's still a sure goal against.

And the fact that the breakdowns are few but catastrophic means the goalie's stats (and both Campbell and Skinner had horrendous HDSC SPCT) will suffer because he hasn't had a chance to stop the easy(er) ones to boost his SPCT.

I never said the Oilers were playing good defense, I said they weren't allowing too many HD chances against. It's still the goalie's job at the end of the day to stop the puck when called upon and he wasn't doing that.

Then the Oilers gave him an easier assignment and he failed even harder.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is the NHL.

Interesting to see some people asking for empathy for Campbell when they themselves have been pretty brutal on players who have underperformed or left in the past.

Nobody is actually crying tears for a made man making 25M. Your post is as strawman as it gets.

Concern is only around use of a 5M buck asset or expenditure and what to do with it.

 

[Ninety7]

Nobody is actually crying tears for a made man making 25M. Your post is as strawman as it gets.

Concern is only around use of a 5M buck asset or expenditure and what to do with it.

He’s not an asset or an expenditure at this point. He is a failure of Ken Holland’s.

He is a liability and we simply cannot afford to pander to his mental and wait for the 5% chance that he gets his confidence back and plays great.

 

[Drivesaitl]

He’s not an asset or an expenditure at this point. He is a failure of Ken Holland’s.

He is a liability and we simply cannot afford to pander to his mental and wait for the 5% chance that he gets his confidence back and plays great.

So what do you suggest? Just another buyout? burying him doesn't rid the team of the longterm 25M cap.

 

[bucks_oil]

Yeah, thanks for the legwork on this. Most of my answers are probably wrong. heh

Leaning to just let McLeod walk. But like I said Ceci or Kulak as well. Felt all those contracts were moveable. Unfortunately my main play was probably getting rid of the Foegele contract, and I realize that would've been a mistake.

So A or C with benefit of hindsight. heh. But I was more into A or D around the time.

Thanks as usual for your posting here. Must read poster.

My answer was: Trade Foegele, let Kostin walk and give Lavoie/AHL guy a full time role... then you'd have $2.0M x 4.5X for $9M in deadline dollars!!!

We'd maybe be down a few goals, have less depth, but PLENTY of cap flexibility to make an in season (if necessary) or TDL trade.

Anyway... there were lots of unsavory options, but the least savory one is the situation we are in which is Holland saying "none of my decisions are wrong, Campbell will rebound" and effectively painting himself into a corner.

 

[Spawn]

It's a disaster if there's 7 million in dead cap next year.

Like we're talking worse than anything Chiarelli did here type disaster.

Jackson, if if has half a goddamn brain needs to act proactively here to prevent that (we know Holland won't).

We need to pay as much of Brown's overages this year. If that means Foegele and McLeod have to be gone for cheaper replacements, so be it.

I will say we still need to give Campbell a fair shot here behind a team that actually is playing some kind of defense and see if we can boost his numbers to a level where he at least can be a cap dump in a deal. Not because I give two f***s about Soup. We know he is 90% mental with him, if we can get him feeling OK about himself it could save us from six years of f***ing dead cap, especially $2+ million in dead cap the years we need to sign freaking McDavid and Draisaitl.

How do we know it’s 90% mental with him? Why can’t it just be that he’s a bad goalie?

 

[Ninety7]

So what do you suggest? Just another buyout? burying him doesn't rid the team of the longterm 25M cap.

I would be trying everything in my power to get out of his contract.

I don’t feel anything for him, and don’t particularly care for his confidence either or trying to get it back. I’m not a big believer of his and nothing in his play has shown me that he is a consistent NHL goaltender.

This teams priority should be winning, and as far as I’m concerned these guys are either in or in the way at this point.

 

[Soundwave]

How do we know it’s 90% mental with him? Why can’t it just be that he’s a bad goalie?

Because bad goalies don't randomly play at a high end level.

We know he has mental issues, dude said so like 500 times when he was signed here.

"I am too hard on myself", "I know I need to relax", "I'm seeing a psychologist", etc. etc. You're not seriously suggesting this is some kind of shock to you now. Nobody following this team can seriously claim that.

Goaltending as a whole is really probably 50% mental, 30% talent, 20% athletic ability.

Not like we haven't seen that movie here before either ... Talbot and Dubnyk were legitimately good goalies ... who mentally just broke here because of terrible defense and/or being overplayed. Most people here said they were 100% done ... and yet they found their groove again elsewhere.

 

[Yuke]

So what do you suggest? Just another buyout? burying him doesn't rid the team of the longterm 25M cap.

I'll answer if that is ok.
You put him in the minors and see if something can get salvaged out of this error.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

The games Campbell backstopped in the playoff last year was the closest we got from elite playoff goaltending, small sample? Maybe!

If you want to look at someone that crumble under pressure, Campbell was not this team biggest issue.

 

[Soundwave]

Buy out is a terrible option and you can't even excercise it this season, so talking about that now does f*** all.

I think we are just going to be stuck trying to build him back up this year so he is at least a back up to Skinner.

KK needs to bag skate these guys if they don't want to put in an honest defensive effort in front of the goalies.

 

[Fourier]

Sorry, this is the fault with these "advanced stats" like HDSC. They have a hard time distinguishing between a true 'sure goal' vs a standard shot from the slot... and consequently guys like you can say "we were playing good defense" when anyone watching the games would chuckle at the notion.

Bouchard pinching in for the n-th time to allow yet another controlled two on one or two on zero break results in one high danger chance against. If you suppress 5 routine shots from the slot (also a HDSC) but still give up that one breakway, it's still a sure goal against.

And the fact that the breakdowns are few but catastrophic means the goalie's stats (and both Campbell and Skinner had horrendous HDSC SPCT) will suffer because he hasn't had a chance to stop the easy(er) ones to boost his SPCT.

If you are only looking at HDSC what you are saying is certainly valid over small sample sizes. But over large sample sizes it becomes less the case. However, the algorithms for expected goals are much more sophisticated and they use a lot of data about each shot.

Campbell played his last year in TO like two different players. As a Leaf Campbell had a solid start, went supernova for the first half of his second year, then played pretty much like he is now for most of the remainder of his tenure. Up to Dec 15 2021 he had a 5 vs 5 sv% of .936 in 45 games as a Leaf with a HDsv% of .839. From that point on his 5 vs 5 sv% dropped to .895 and his HDsv% dropped to .730 over 26 games. Over the first period TO's xGA/60 was 2.21. Over the latter period it was 2.26. This suggests that the drop in numbers was due to Campbell and not the quality of shots he was facing. Campbell in the AHL is also significantly underperforming both Pickard and Rodrigue.

We have had this discussion before and on individual goals you have made very good points as to why the goalie could be excused. But as sample size increases it becomes a simple matter of not stopping shots that other goalies are. I think we can all agree that the Oilers have big time break downs. But are they really alone in this regard? Vancouver for example can be a disaster defensively and yet Demko has allowed 4 HDGA on on 71 HDSA. This cannot simply be a matter that the stats are not picking up differences in shot quality. His xGA is just under 24. His actual goals against is 14 (5 vs 5). For Campbell it is 15 GA vs 11xGA.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The games Campbell backstopped in the playoff last year was the closest we got from elite playoff goaltending, small sample? Maybe!

If you want to look at someone that crumble under pressure, Campbell was not this team biggest issue.

He crumbled under regular season pressure and had one good cleanup appearance.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

How do we know it’s 90% mental with him? Why can’t it just be that he’s a bad goalie?

Campbell's fragility in his confidence was an issue in his latter season play with the Leafs. It was talked about in length in TO media. He had a hot few months then collapsed his last season there. He rebounded a bit in the playoffs for that one round they had. That was my concern when the Oil signed him but I was hopeful. That being said not many options for Holland once Keumper was off the table.

 

[Mr Positive]

Buy out is a terrible option and you can't even excercise it this season, so talking about that now does f*** all.

I think we are just going to be stuck trying to build him back up this year so he is at least a back up to Skinner.

KK needs to bag skate these guys if they don't want to put in an honest defensive effort in front of the goalies.

Pretty much
This is similar to the Bobrovski situation. Florida had him as the third string goalie for a long time but they had no choice but to let that situation play out and give him every opportunity. Eventually Bob got his game back (for the most part).

As far as I'm concerned, the real time to even consider buyout is when Skinner's current deal expires and he needs a big raise (which hopefully happens). Until then, goalie spending isn't too bad and we have proof (even up to today) that when the team plays better the save percentage of the goalie goes up

 

[K1984]

The games Campbell backstopped in the playoff last year was the closest we got from elite playoff goaltending, small sample? Maybe!

If you want to look at someone that crumble under pressure, Campbell was not this team biggest issue.

Calling any of Campbell's playoff performances "elite" is an interesting take.

Campbell's play in the playoffs has reached borderline mythological status, but the truth lands somewhere in the middle. The only game where he really had to actually play for any amount of time and face more than a handful of shots was Game 4 against the Kings. Did he play well in that game compared to Skinner? Absolutely. Was he frankly lucky that a few of those pucks hit him when there were a few circumstances where he didn't really see it, but it happened to catch a piece of him? Absolutely. Did the Oilers have the better run of play over the Kings after he was put in? Yes. Was it a heroic stand on his head performance that single handedly won the game like some here try and dress it up as? Not close.

The other games he came in pretty much at garbage time and the game was more or less salted away and honestly aren't relevant. If I remember correctly he didn't face double digit shots in any games other than Kings Game 4.

 

[Spawn]

Pretty much
This is similar to the Bobrovski situation. Florida had him as the third string goalie for a long time but they had no choice but to let that situation play out and give him every opportunity. Eventually Bob got his game back (for the most part).

As far as I'm concerned, the real time to even consider buyout is when Skinner's current deal expires and he needs a big raise (which hopefully happens). Until then, goalie spending isn't too bad and we have proof (even up to today) that when the team plays better the save percentage of the goalie goes up

Brobrovsky is a two time vezina trophy winner with multiple years of elite play.

Jack Campbell is a career backup/AHL tweener who has less than one full season of being a successful starter at the NHL level.

 

[Soundwave]

Pretty much
This is similar to the Bobrovski situation. Florida had him as the third string goalie for a long time but they had no choice but to let that situation play out and give him every opportunity. Eventually Bob got his game back (for the most part).

As far as I'm concerned, the real time to even consider buyout is when Skinner's current deal expires and he needs a big raise (which hopefully happens). Until then, goalie spending isn't too bad and we have proof (even up to today) that when the team plays better the save percentage of the goalie goes up

The goal with Campbell as far as I see it should be to try and get his numbers up to somewhere above .890 for a stretch and then try to move him for a more reasonable cost for another goalie needing a change of scenery.

So like a Campbell + Broberg or Campbell + 1st for Jacob Markstrom or Elvis Merzlinkins or John Gibson type deal ... a goalie that is looking for a change of scenery later on in the season.

The whole embarrassing AHL adventure we sent the guy on just complicated that goal for no good reason.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Calling any of Campbell's playoff performances "elite" is an interesting take.

Campbell's play in the playoffs has reached borderline mythological status, but the truth lands somewhere in the middle. The only game where he really had to actually play for any amount of time and face more than a handful of shots was Game 4 against the Kings. Did he play well in that game compared to Skinner? Absolutely. Was he frankly lucky that a few of those pucks hit him when there were a few circumstances where he didn't really see it, but it happened to catch a piece of him? Absolutely. Did the Oilers have the better run of play over the Kings after he was put in? Yes. Was it a heroic stand on his head performance that single handedly won the game like some here try and dress it up as? Not close.

The other games he came in pretty much at garbage time and the game was more or less salted away and honestly aren't relevant. If I remember correctly he didn't face double digit shots in any games other than Kings Game 4.

Hey I am not overhyped at the prospect Campbell could turn it around but my hype about Skinner is also about the same.

Now I do believe Soup celly is much higher than Skinner but even that is debatable, what I disagree with is people undeservedly hammering at Campbell when his carrier numbers are extremely similar to Skinner, theirs respective contracts the main differentiator.

Would I rather go into playoff with Campbell than Skinner, absolutely

Jack Campbell had a 7-8-0 record in 18 games with a goals against average of 2.28 and a save percentage of . 920 in the playoffs in his career.

Stuart Skinner has a 5-6-0 record in 12 games with a goals against average of 3.68 and a save percentage of . 883 in the playoffs in his career.

 

[Soundwave]

Hey I am not overhyped at the prospect Campbell could turn it around but my hype about Skinner is also about the same.

Now I do believe Soup celly is much higher than Skinner but even that is debatable, what I disagree with is people undeservedly hammering at Campbell when his carrier numbers are extremely similar to Skinner, theirs respective contracts the main differentiator.

Would I rather go into playoff with Campbell than Skinner, absolutely

Jack Campbell had a 7-8-0 record in 18 games with a goals against average of 2.28 and a save percentage of . 920 in the playoffs in his career.

Stuart Skinner has a 5-6-0 record in 12 games with a goals against average of 3.68 and a save percentage of . 883 in the playoffs in his career.

Cam Talbot:
Oilers 16-17 playoffs 13 GP: .924 save percentage
Flames 19-20 playoffs 10 GP: .924 save percentage
Wild 20-21 playoffs 7 GP: .923 save percentage

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Cam Talbot:
Oilers 16-17 playoffs 13 GP: .924 save percentage
Flames 19-20 playoffs 10 GP: .924 save percentage
Wild 20-21 playoffs 7 GP: .923 save percentage

Dont get me started....

 

[mkatcherin00]

Sometimes you don't know what you have until it's gone lol

I just remember Talbot letting in so many 1st shot goals and everybody turning on him

Before we got him, I remember he was one of the top goalies in the NHL for HDC Save % for a certain amount of games played.

 

[Messrules11]

Good grief, what a shitty goalie. This is a total waste of 25M, has to be Holland’s worst signing ever.