Proposal: J.T. Miller to TOR

[Boondock]

It is factually true that he would instantly become their leading scorer this season amongst forwards. Nobody said he would be their best forward. Point is he isn’t a nothing piece when he would have the most forward points on your team.

Then if this is the case, trade Kerfoot in a separate deal. The Leafs could then use some of the bounty from Kerfoot to try to land a different style of player. If a team (say Vancouver) is going to trade their best forward, the return needs to be an organizational fit. A 26 year old 3rd line winger having a career season on a top scoring team isn't what the Canucks are looking for, so he is included to make salary work for the Leafs. If his value is an inexpensive defensively responsible 60 point player - trade him to any other team, don't include him in this trade, because Canuck fans don't see him as being one of the value pieces in the deal. Miller's asking price will be young RHD with upside and/or C prospect with upside, cap flexibility and picks to help replenish the prospect pool. So Kerfoot doesn't carry a lot of value when you have the needs the Canucks have.

If I have a really nice pick up truck to trade and I have 5 kids so need a minivan or a 7 seater SUV in return - if someone comes to me and says I've got a really nice 2 seater sports car here and I say no thank you, it doesn't mean the car has no value to someone else, but to me it is not of value. Just because that person throws in a motorcycle and a segway - increasing the value to presumably over payment, it still doesn't do anything to address my needs.

A Miller return of Kerfoot, Sandin, etc. doesn't address the Canucks needs, therefore the offer isn't likely to be accepted even if it is viewed as an overpayment.

 

[Petrus]

Not saying the value make sense nor am I advocating for it, but From what I am reading, the Canucks need size and an RHD.

Here is an example of what that Canucks might need from Toronto:


Knies - LW 6’3 (potential power forward)
Niemela - RHD (potential 2 way dman)
2022 1st Round Pick


It would be wiser for Toronto to use the above assets on a defenceman.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

From the Av's Helleson, Barron and a 1st, that would fill a team need more than the Leafs offer and just one example, want more?

You would take a worse offer just to match your needs?

Trading for prospects is like drafting. You go for need when the prospects are comparable. Otherwise, you always take the better player.

I think the desire to trade for need is reasonable. But there has to be a better offer than that to reject the Leafs' one. Just from an asset management perspective.

Both Robertson and Sandin are higher-rated prospects by a substantial margin. One of them is already full-time in the NHL and trending in the right direction.

I think logically a GM should try to net the best possible assets when dealing with younger players. It's already hard to judge how they will turn out.

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Miller @ 50%
Schenn

To Vancouver-
Kerfoot
Robertson
Holmberg
Dermott
1st Round Pick

 

[Boondock]

To Toronto-
Miller @ 50%
Schenn

To Vancouver-
Kerfoot
Robertson
Holmberg
Dermott
1st Round Pick

Some people just want to watch the world burn

 

[Avilaj07]

Some people just want to watch the world burn

Not sure what you mean by that?

You're getting a middle 6 all around winger in Kerfoot. 2 very good prospects in Robertson and Holmberg, a young bottom pair defenseman and a 1st Round Pick. Can't see Vancouver getting a better package then that

 

[orcatown]

To Toronto-
Miller @ 50%
Schenn

To Vancouver-
Kerfoot
Robertson
Holmberg
Dermott
1st Round Pick

Giving up a quality for quantity. Kerfoot is the only proven NHL player and he is mid tier. Terrible trade for Vancouver and waste of time to suggest it. Miller is likely your second best player after Matthews.

 

[Boondock]

Not sure what you mean by that?

You're getting a middle 6 all around winger in Kerfoot. 2 very good prospects in Robertson and Holmberg, a young bottom pair defenseman and a 1st Round Pick. Can't see Vancouver getting a better package then that

If the Canucks are trading Miller with 2 years (this and next) on his contract, it clearly states the team is in a multi year re-tool, re-set, rebuild, whatever re-word people want to use. So with their most valuable player (ppg, plays all positions, face offs, etc.) the Canucks are going to target Kerfoot, a 3rd line winger having his best season, but a career 3rd liner, a very good winger prospect when the team already has Garland, Podkolzin, Hoglander and Boeser all under 25 and their best forward prospects are wingers (not as good as Robertson, but still wingers), a maybe defensive prospect and a late 1st? I have concerns with Robertson, after having a very good D+1 season, he has had 2 injuries that have significantly limited his development, he is small, which is a concern for a player with multiple injuries in a very physical sport. This is a very underwhelming return. Remove Holmberg and Kerfoot and add something that is a need for the Canucks. Add to this the Canucks are retaining $2.625 and adding Kerfoot's cap $3.5 so the Canucks actually have less cap space after this deal than before. The Canucks are better to keep Miller at $5.25 than Kerfoot and retention for $6.125.

 

[Twine Tickler]

So let me get this straight, Toronto gives up:

Alexander Kerfoot: Utility forward, used everywhere in every situation and probably 5th best forward on our team

Rasmus Sandin: former first round pick, former WJC best defensemen, playing in his first full season and playing well. Also only 21 years old

Nick Robertson: THW 20th ranked prospect affiliated to an NHL team. A guy who scored at a historic pace in his D+1 year. Something only matched by John Tavares x2, Patty Kane, and Eric Lindros for U19 players in the OHL since 1990.

and a 1st round pick.

for JT Miller, who would be an upgrade on Kerfoot, but yet would still be our 5th best forward on our team....

Ya makes a lot of sense to do that

 

[Leaf Fans]

Giving up a quality for quantity. Kerfoot is the only proven NHL player and he is mid tier. Terrible trade for Vancouver and waste of time to suggest it. Miller is likely your second best player after Matthews.

After Matthews, Marner and Nylander while Kerfoot would be your highest scoring forward if Miller is traded.

 

[Canuck86]

After Matthews, Marner and Nylander while Kerfoot would be your highest scoring forward if Miller is traded.

Just remember its the regular season...those stats mean nothing come playoff time!

 

[elitepete]

You would take a worse offer just to match your needs?

Trading for prospects is like drafting. You go for need when the prospects are comparable. Otherwise, you always take the better player.

I think the desire to trade for need is reasonable. But there has to be a better offer than that to reject the Leafs' one. Just from an asset management perspective.

Both Robertson and Sandin are higher-rated prospects by a substantial margin. One of them is already full-time in the NHL and trending in the right direction.

I think logically a GM should try to net the best possible assets when dealing with younger players. It's already hard to judge how they will turn out.

Barron is a better prospect than Robertson and Sandin.

 

[elitepete]

So let me get this straight, Toronto gives up:

Alexander Kerfoot: Utility forward, used everywhere in every situation and probably 5th best forward on our team

Rasmus Sandin: former first round pick, former WJC best defensemen, playing in his first full season and playing well. Also only 21 years old

Nick Robertson: THW 20th ranked prospect affiliated to an NHL team. A guy who scored at a historic pace in his D+1 year. Something only matched by John Tavares x2, Patty Kane, and Eric Lindros for U19 players in the OHL since 1990.

and a 1st round pick.

for JT Miller, who would be an upgrade on Kerfoot, but yet would still be our 5th best forward on our team....

Ya makes a lot of sense to do that

Miller would be the 4th best forward on your team.

Those pieces just aren't that great of fits for the Canucks. If that's the best offer we get, I would take it. But I would be hoping from a better offer from a team that has more tradable pieces like NYR/Min/Col/Car

 

[Leaf Fans]

Just remember its the regular season...those stats mean nothing come playoff time!

Sure, nether player has any playoff point this year for the obvious reason that the playoffs haven't started yet. Though historically Miller has 6 more goals than Kerfoot has in the playoffs, but has played in 48 more playoff games he also has 24 more assists than Kerfoot has, but has played 48 more games.

 

[elitepete]

After Matthews, Marner and Nylander while Kerfoot would be your highest scoring forward if Miller is traded.

Kerfoot would not be the 2nd highest scorer on the Canucks if he played here the whole season.

 

[elitepete]

Sure, nether player has any playoff point this year for the obvious reason that the playoffs haven't started yet. Though historically Miller has 6 more goals than Kerfoot has in the playoffs, but has played in 48 more playoff games he also has 24 more assists than Kerfoot has, but has played 48 more games.

Miller had more points in his last playoff run than Kerfoot has over his entire career.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Kerfoot would not be the 2nd highest scorer on the Canucks if he played here the whole season.

Maybe, who can know for sure? We can only speculate on that possibility.

 

[orcatown]

And Robertson becomes the new Bracco. Why make Toronto fans look foolish?

No one is taking Marner and Nylander going into the playoffs ahead of Miller. And if you are looking at points, Miller is ahead of both Nylander and Marner and is also lights year ahead in girt and all round effectiveness (like killing penalties). And that doesn't even consider the contract advantages he has over the likes of Marner. Marner heads up for Miller would be a terrible trade for the Canucks.

This is not even a good effort to trade your surplus crap, like the undersized Robertson and Kerfoot, the slightly build, defensively nothing Holmberg along with the injury prone Sandin, for real value.

I guess you think it makes you look clever. But honestly only to yourself. If you are truly interested in Miller and Schenn then make a decent proposal.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Miller had more points in his last playoff run than Kerfoot has over his entire career.

Yes, he had an excellent run that one year. 2019-2020 if I remember correctly. He had his bet regular season that year too.

 

[Paddys Pub]

You would take a worse offer just to match your needs?

Trading for prospects is like drafting. You go for need when the prospects are comparable. Otherwise, you always take the better player.

I think the desire to trade for need is reasonable. But there has to be a better offer than that to reject the Leafs' one. Just from an asset management perspective.

Both Robertson and Sandin are higher-rated prospects by a substantial margin. One of them is already full-time in the NHL and trending in the right direction.

I think logically a GM should try to net the best possible assets when dealing with younger players. It's already hard to judge how they will turn out.

This is nonsense.
Trading for prospects, the player is already at least a year past his draft year and you are starting to see what kind of a player they are.
They already have at least a year of NHL level assistance with their development.
It’s the difference between a 18 yr old and a 19-20-21+

 

[seanlinden]

If the Canucks are trading Miller with 2 years (this and next) on his contract, it clearly states the team is in a multi year re-tool, re-set, rebuild, whatever re-word people want to use. So with their most valuable player (ppg, plays all positions, face offs, etc.) the Canucks are going to target Kerfoot, a 3rd line winger having his best season, but a career 3rd liner, a very good winger prospect when the team already has Garland, Podkolzin, Hoglander and Boeser all under 25 and their best forward prospects are wingers (not as good as Robertson, but still wingers), a maybe defensive prospect and a late 1st? I have concerns with Robertson, after having a very good D+1 season, he has had 2 injuries that have significantly limited his development, he is small, which is a concern for a player with multiple injuries in a very physical sport. This is a very underwhelming return. Remove Holmberg and Kerfoot and add something that is a need for the Canucks. Add to this the Canucks are retaining $2.625 and adding Kerfoot's cap $3.5 so the Canucks actually have less cap space after this deal than before. The Canucks are better to keep Miller at $5.25 than Kerfoot and retention for $6.125.

The deal as proposed isn't the "right one"... but the concept of Miller to Toronto probably is -- as long as you believe the Canucks aren't in a position to turn things around this offseason.

The Canucks have winger prospects, but as you mentioned, Robertson is better than all of them. If we go by THW's list (certainly not exact, but at least somewhat neutral), there's only 1 other player ranked higher than him that's likely to be offered for Miller -- Dylan Holloway from Edmonton (who's ranked 19).

Both have injury concerns, but when you look at where the Oilers are in the standings, and where the Leafs are, it seems likely that the other pieces in the deal are going to be much better from Toronto. From Vancouver's standpoint, they can't really go full rebuild because they're pretty young, so should be placing a higher value on getting players that can step into the lineup immediately. Robertson certainly meets that criteria.

From the "other pieces standpoint".... I'd certainly envision either Timothy Liljegren (a right shot, current NHL, likely top 4 defenceman with 1st round pedigree) or Toronto's 1st round pick this year being on the table. I think the Leafs would stop short of including both, but likely include a lesser prospect as well (excl. Knies, Niemla, Amirov). To do that deal, they're gonna have to take back Nick Ritchie, but 1 year at $2.5m is not going to be something that gets in the way of doing a deal like this.

Yes, the Canucks could keep Miller -- but in doing so, need to realistically ask themselves what that is going to achieve? If all they're going to do is burn a year off Pettersson's deal, to then flip him for picks/prospects a year from now, that are further from the NHL than a guy like Robertson is today, that doesn't do them any good. Trading Miller at 50% and taking back Ritchie certainly hurts the team for 22-23, but puts them in a really good position for 23-24.

 

[seanlinden]

This is nonsense.
Trading for prospects, the player is already at least a year past his draft year and you are starting to see what kind of a player they are.
They already have at least a year of NHL level assistance with their development.
It’s the difference between a 18 yr old and a 19-20-21+

There is a difference between 18 year olds and 19-20-21 year olds, forsure. At the end of the day though, it's still very much a gamble.

At the end of the day, even 20 year old prospects are still 2-3 years away from making meaningful consistent contributions at the NHL level. Needs can and almost certainly will change in that time.

 

[seanlinden]

Barron is a better prospect than Robertson and Sandin.

According to?

Don't like The Hockey Writers?

Feel free to check out these guys. https://drive4five.blog/2021/10/29/nhl-top-prospects-trevor-zegras-cole-caufield-ben-kule/

You want to make an argument for Barron over Robertson? sure, at least with them both being prospects, you'll probably find some that think Barron is better, even if the consensus is that Robertson is.

Sandin is an NHL player -- a reasonably successful one at that, and is leaps & bounds more valuable than either... but again, is not being traded. Period.

 

[Leaf Fans]

And Robertson becomes the new Bracco. Why make Toronto fans look foolish?

No one is taking Marner and Nylander going into the playoffs ahead of Miller. And if you are looking at points, Miller is ahead of both Nylander and Marner and is also lights year ahead in girt and all round effectiveness (like killing penalties). And that doesn't even consider the contract advantages he has over the likes of Marner. Marner heads up for Miller would be a terrible trade for the Canucks.

This is not even a good effort to trade your surplus crap, like the undersized Robertson and Kerfoot, the slightly build, defensively nothing Holmberg along with the injury prone Sandin, for real value.

I guess you think it makes you look clever. But honestly only to yourself. If you are truly interested in Miller and Schenn then make a decent proposal.

How does Robertson become the new Bracco? Yes Miller has 19 more points and 4 more goals than Marner in 46 more games, he has 4 fewer goals and 20 more points than Matthews in 46 more games, and 1 fewer goal and 21 more points than Nylander in 46 more games than Nylander. The players you mentioned are not surplus crap.

 

[elitepete]

According to?

Don't like The Hockey Writers?

Feel free to check out these guys. https://drive4five.blog/2021/10/29/nhl-top-prospects-trevor-zegras-cole-caufield-ben-kule/

You want to make an argument for Barron over Robertson? sure, at least with them both being prospects, you'll probably find some that think Barron is better, even if the consensus is that Robertson is.

Sandin is an NHL player -- a reasonably successful one at that, and is leaps & bounds more valuable than either... but again, is not being traded. Period.

Barron is a defensive rhd with decent size and decent offense. A rare mould of player, which makes him more valuable than Robertson and Sandin, who are comparable prospects.