World Juniors are a crap shoot as far as success translating. I can think of a dozen guys from the Canucks alone that looked like world beaters at the WJC that simply didn't find away to use their talent and work ethic to do anything except be a middling talent, at best. AHL success is more promising, but is once again not a guarantee of any kind of success or likelihood of developing to their potential. Juolevi and Hutton were playing top four minutes convincingly for us for brief periods. Otherwise we have Rathbone, with the same kind of pedigree and success playing in a top four NHL role, albeit for a shorter period given our team make up, is he considered "spectacular"? We have him stashed in the minors because we can't get him enough ice time with Hughes and Ekman-Larsson running up the TOI stats. Maybe I've just been spoiled having he and Hughes developing at the same time. To use the scoring per game argument from Robertson, Rathbone is scoring .85 PPG in the AHL in two seasons, and Sandin had 0.65 (I'm assuming Sandin's sticking in the bigs).
Scoring like a monster in junior is fantastic, and entertaining as hell. Halbgewachs played 143 games and scored 120 goals in his final two seasons. He is also a smaller player that scored amazing goals in juniors. He's 24 and has played 5 games. Yes, development isn't linear. But Matt Cooke scored 45 in 65 for Windsor, so that isn't an excuse either. 97 in 168 is spectacular, but there is no way of projecting that as NHL production. For every Sakic, or Lindros or Lemieux you also have a Azevedo, Riendeau, Vey, Leipsic, Shinnimin or Kozun. A lot of the players broke out in their second or third year in the CHL too, and had a season or two of scoring at at a similar rate. I think every iteration of every team has had a prospect or two that have lit the CHL on fire (or KHL or SHL or NCAA or another league) and left the team and fans wanting more. 16 points in 21 games for the Marlies is promising, but again, that isn't any more of a guarantee his game will translate to the NHL.
Injuries are one thing, but also size is troubling with Robertson. We've seen how injuries and health concerns and size all work against promising prospects. Nolan Patrick comes to mind as one of the most recent high visibility cases, but every team has a long line of prospects picked later because of injury and size issues that show every signal they'll develop and just can't. We've dumped a number of them lately. These kind of factors make Robertson a lot more hit-or-miss, and for all the prospect rating sites having him in their top 20, it removes a lot of his luster. A broken leg essentially takes a years development away from him at a critical time. Can he over come this? Hell yes he can, and I hope he does, but not everyone can (Juolevi is my recent Canucks example).
I'm not here to say that there is no chance for either of them, or they're worthless, but neither are what I'd call spectacular. Most teams have a high risk, high reward forward and an offensive LHD that shows promise and that's why I don't think they're spectacular.
The fact that Sandin continues to be talked about in this thread is somewhat pointless.
The Leafs are not going to trade him. He was Kyle Dubas' first pick. He has substantially elevated his game in the last few years. His development trajectory fits perfectly into the apparent Jake Muzzin decline issue. His fancy stats (which Dubas is in to) are off the charts. He's not going to be traded, and certainly not for JT Miller -- full stop. This isn't about trying to argue he's a super-prospect or anything like that, he's just not going to be traded. I've said that 3 times in this paragraph, hopefully for emphasis.
The issue is not the quality of prospects here and if that's the general sentiment seen so far, I'd disagree.
The issue is very much that in a world where to Canucks have so many holes to fill, Sandin helps fill the least deep hole we have. Robertson may very well be an uber prospect and may make us look silly, but we simply can't afford to miss on this trade, and as uber a prospect as he may be, I can't help but feel like the hill he still would have to climb may be steeper than I would feel comfortable with.
Here's my thinking, Robertson will be the next Gretzky, so we'll leave him for you, would you sub in Amirov? And then Niemala over Sandin would fit our needs better, so that would leave the super stud Sandin.
Amirov+Niemala+1st for Miller @50%?
The only way to guarantee that you don't "miss" on a trade selling Miller, is to not trade him. Ultimately, every possible trade you make that involves picks / prospects has a reasonably high chance of "missing". That's why teams that embark upon a full rebuild take years of accumulating assets in order to turn things around.
Niemla is another player that I think the Leafs grossly overvalue right now because of his WJC performance, his development in the finnish league, and his current development trajectory. They probably see him coming to the AHL once the finnish season wraps up, hich would put him on target to challenge for a spot with the Leafs in October 2023. By that time, the somewhat of a logjam the Leafs have between Dermott/Sandin/Liljegren will have sorted it's way out, and the team will be looking to bring in another young guy.
With respect to Amirov, I think he & Robertson can be used somewhat interchangeably from a valuation standpoint, but Robertson makes a lot more sense in a deal to Vancouver. He's much closer to the NHL / providing immediate help, and Vancouver is retooling more than rebuilding. From the Leafs POV, with the big 4 up front, fitting him in is difficult -- so he probably needs a change of scenery.
According to the hockey writers, Niemla ranks as the 29th best prospect in the league, and Amirov 21.
Do honestly believe that JT Miller can fetch what is equivalent to probably 3 firsts in terms of "value"? I don't. The only prospect ranked higher on THW's list that is likely to be available would be Dylan Holloway from Edmonton (and he has a bad wrist). Are the Oilers going to be willing to include their 1st round pick+? I'm not so sure they will.
Heck, look further down the list in the 22-30 range,. The Jets aren't trading Heinola. The Senators aren't trading Pinto. The Ducks aren't trading Perreault. The Red Wings aren't trading Edvinsson or Berggren None of these teams are in the market to add a JT Miller.
Maybe the Stars trade Bourque, but I doubt the Wild trade Boldy considering he presently has 10 points in 10 NHL games. The vast majority of top prospects in the league are held by teams that aren't in the market to add. So many people in this thread keep saying "we don't like Robertson" -- well, who is it that you do like? Doesn't necessarily need to be from Toronto, just needs to be from a team that's realistically in the market for JT Miller?
