Value of: Ivan Provorov

[SteelCityCannon]

Because the ask from multiple people is is a 2nd+ or a late 1st and that's an equivalent package. I thought it was pretty self explanatory...

You said yourself it probably gets beat. Bunch of spare parts.

Just a question, but is the pout still evident when he doesn’t get his way?

I like Ivan as a player but the pouting was killer to have to deal with.

He still has value and if they’ll be retention on him, the value even goes up.

He's been nothing but a good soldier for us. That includes last year where the coaching was absolute shit. I could see Columbus retaining for the right deal. I would do 50% for a late first. I would be shocked if they wouldn't.

 

[KevinRedkey]

You said yourself it probably gets beat. Bunch of spare parts.

I could see Columbus retaining for the right deal. I would do 50% for a late first. I would be shocked if they wouldn't.

You'd do 50% for 32nd overall but question and mock an offer 40th overall (Ottawa's current position), a 3rd, and Bourgault for the same player.

This is really just you unknowingly admitting you don't understand the value of draft picks.

 

[SteelCityCannon]

You'd do 50% for 32nd overall but question and mock an offer 40th overall (Ottawa's current position), a 3rd, and Bourgault for the same player.

This is really just you unknowingly admitting you don't understand the value of draft picks.

Yes, id want to make sure we trade him to the Stanley cup winner and absolutely nobody else. That's exactly what I want.

 

[LTIR]

Yes, id want to make sure we trade him to the Stanley cup winner and absolutely nobody else. That's exactly what I want.

That's not how GMs think. They would want the most value.
If they feel that Drop-off from Sens 2nd pick and a late 1st isn't much for them then this could be a good package.

 

[kerrabria]

Not worth a first at the TDL, but you are willing to sign him to an extension and add to a first to do so?

Obviously yes. Half a season of Top 4 D is worth a less than four or five seasons of a Top 4 D.

What does where we're at in the standings have to do with an individual player? When has that ever mattered at the TDL? He's averaging more than 23 minutes a night, how is that a 3d? Nobodies asking for a blue chip prospect for him. This whole post is nonsense.

He's third among CBJ d-men in EV TOI. That's how you determine the coach's depth chart.

Standings should matter because if he's a 2/3D on a bad team, he's probably a 3/4D on a good team. Unfortunately, they don't mater because Zito grossly overpaid for rental Chiarot when he was last place Montreal's 1D, even though he also got Montour for a 3rd when he was BUF's 1/2D.

Several posts on the first page say the cost should be a 1st+. I didn't say you were asking for a blue chip prospect, I said that a blue chip D prospect would make a lot more sense for CBJ's needs/timeline rather than yet another draft pick or young forward.

 

[SteelCityCannon]

Several posts on the first page say the cost should be a 1st+. I didn't say you were asking for a blue chip prospect, I said that a blue chip D prospect would make a lot more sense for CBJ's needs/timeline rather than yet another draft pick or young forward.

Seems unrealistic. What contender has a blue chip defensemen prospect that would likely trade them for a rental?

 

[kerrabria]

Seems unrealistic. What contender has a blue chip defensemen prospect that would likely trade them for a rental?

Idk off the top of my head. But a blue chip dman prospect is probably about equivalent value to a 1st Rounder plus a B-level prospect, no? I was just saying that it'd make more sense for CBJ to seek that out since they surely want to compete within the next two years, and their stable of forwards is far better than their blue line.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Obviously yes. Half a season of Top 4 D is worth a less than four or five seasons of a Top 4 D.

cool. what top 4 defenseman with five seasons left is on the market at the deadline this year? and what contenders want to add a long-term cap hit?

He's third among CBJ d-men in EV TOI. That's how you determine the coach's depth chart.

well actually, no, it's not.

you're moving the goalposts by only looking at EV TOI instead of total TOI. the blue jackets take a lot of penalties. he's playing over 23 minutes a night, and is second on the team in that category behind the literal league leader in ATOI.

he's 31st in the league in ATOI/GP among defensemen. there are 32 teams. in your world where a defenseman's status is determined by how much they play, he would be:

1. a #3 on five teams (CGY, CHI, COL, STL, VAN)
2. a #2 on nineteen (19) teams
3. a #1 on eight teams

of course that's not actually how it works – he has higher ATOI than adam fox! – but he is a good #3 at minimum and can play huge minutes if asked.

 

[Schemp]

Utah may not be a contender yet. But to bring playoff hockey to Utah, the pressure is there, and being downplayed at the moment. Utah can offer up Lavoie and Skahan if you're looking at D prospects...

 

[voyageur]

Why do I feel like Kelly Mc Crimmon is going to be the winner in another Brandon Wheat King sweepstakes, as long as his boy Mark Stone can go on LTIR and be ready for the playoffs? Something like Nick Hague, their 2nd round pick, and another prospect, maybe one of their goalie prospects?

 

[Petes2424]

There's quite a few exceptions to your theory, and FWIW Devils fans are raving about L Hughes complete game.



I don't recognize the player from this description. He is a complete player and doesn't have a lot of faults. He doesn't have a lot of high end either.

So many comments in his thread are people getting stuck in his pedigree and of course obviously not watching him this year. He's like a regular boring #3 D-man. You wouldn't guess that he was supposed to be a star in his youth and you wouldn't guess that he was a bad player a few years ago. The actual Ivan Provorov, the current NHL player, is completely absent in your post.

You’re right. He’s your typical boring #3/4, when in reality he absolutely could’ve been a pace driving, top pairing player.

You don’t spend a Top 10 pick on your everyday, boring #3/4 dman. He absolutely had high end talent (to develop) at 18 years old. He should’ve been more than he has become. Not sure how anyone argues that.

I never said they all bust. Far from it. Just that 90% of kids pushed too quickly, don’t become what they could’ve become.

It’s the little things he never got better at. As an example, his retrieval skills are the same today that they’ve always been. He doesn’t control or carry the play in his own end, like he’s skilled enough to do. He reverts back to the basics.

Most Dmen will stagnate (in many ways) developmentally, if they play regularly in the NHL before they’re 21-22. They’re top end skills keep developing but the rest of their game doesn’t. It’s why NJ is taking a step back with Nemec, and even with Hughes at the NHL level. They’re protecting him much more. Not putting as much pressure on him. It’s why Anaheim is re-evaluating pushing their kids too much. Mintyukov is very similar to Provorov developmentally wise, at this age. He’s also very much the same exact player he was 12 months ago, which is a concern.

Exactly why Verbeek has been surrounding and sheltering him more recently. They were ready to ship Fowler out before his injury, and have now traded for Trouba, so they’ll still have another vet in there, if they do move Fowler. Good bet they get a #6/7 in any Fowler trade as well.

It’s just natural when you put a young player in a Top 4 spot before he’s ready. He’s gonna rely on what he knows. So he inevitably lacks getting better at becoming an all-around player.

It’s literally why we have so many great offensively gifted dmen, who are garbage in their own end at 25-26. They usually get pushed too early and never develop defensively as they could, with just more time playing hard minutes in the AHL.

There’s just very few kids like Doughty or Seider who can keep getting significantly better (at their weaknesses) playing in the NHL with no protection. Most who play so early, only get gradually better, especially at their weaknesses.

The worst part is, it doesn’t take a long time to send a kid down for 20-70 games and work on things. Watch how much better Nemec is next year. It’ll be much closer to what we’ve seen from Clarke and Edvinsson this year. Same with Korchinski playing the first quarter of this season in the AHL. Luneau is another one. Anaheim halted how they were pushing him, and he’ll be much better for it.

Teams were smart with these players, and they’re gonna get much better results, rather than having a kid try playing through his weaknesses at the NHL level. It’s an unforgiving league.

Like I mentioned, Doughty and Seider were/are able to. We’ll see on Luke Hughes, but if you’re gonna trust a kid to do it, he’s the type you would. Far too many Provorov’s have existed though. For every Doughty or Seider, there’s a dozen Provorov’s, who never end up that top pairing, dominant player, because they were pushed too quickly, for whatever reason.

Mintyukov is a current example. He’s not going back to the AHL now. Too many people would have egg on their face. At least Verbeek is being responsible with his development now. Surrounding him with more protection, compared to last year, or even the original plan going into this year.

You don’t learn by failing at the NHL level. Teams learn to hide your weaknesses better. Unfortunately fans, the media, and coaches, don’t have the patience they should with very talented young dmen.

Provorov’s best bet for the rest of his career, is to go to a team like Buffalo or Detroit and become the partner, to one of their elite kids. He’ll look and play much better in that role, as a supporting Top 4 player, rather than going to a team to carry their 2nd pairing. He can do it, but he’s now more suited to be a high-end role player, in someone’s Top 4, than a main, go to guy.

 

[majormajor]

Idk off the top of my head. But a blue chip dman prospect is probably about equivalent value to a 1st Rounder plus a B-level prospect, no?

You're using blue chip more loosely than most.

"Blue chip prospect" has always been somewhat of an oxymoron, but it should at minimum connote a guy who is very likely going to be a top half of the lineup player. For instance Cutter Gauthier or Sam Dickinson. And you don't get those guys in the back half of the 1st where rental picks come from.

FWIW the Jackets have so many prospects that a mature prospect might not get the best opportunities. So taking a pick might better smooth things out.

Nick Hague

From what I know, that's probably all it would take. I think the Jackets take a straight up deal for Hague if they can't extend Provorov. Hague is more of a lower lineup guy but my understanding is that he can play shutdown roles. Perhaps folks can correct me on that.

 

[majormajor]

You’re right. He’s your typical boring #3/4, when in reality he absolutely could’ve been a pace driving, top pairing player.

You don’t spend a Top 10 pick on your everyday, boring #3/4 dman. He absolutely had high end talent (to develop) at 18 years old. He should’ve been more than he has become. Not sure how anyone argues that.

I never said they all bust. Far from it. Just that 90% of kids pushed too quickly, don’t become what they could’ve become.

It’s the little things he never got better at. As an example, his retrieval skills are the same today that they’ve always been. He doesn’t control or carry the play in his own end, like he’s skilled enough to do. He reverts back to the basics.

Most Dmen will stagnate (in many ways) developmentally, if they play regularly in the NHL before they’re 21-22. They’re top end skills keep developing but the rest of their game doesn’t. It’s why NJ is taking a step back with Nemec, and even with Hughes at the NHL level. They’re protecting him much more. Not putting as much pressure on him. It’s why Anaheim is re-evaluating pushing their kids too much. Mintyukov is very similar to Provorov developmentally wise, at this age. He’s also very much the same exact player he was 12 months ago, which is a concern.

Exactly why Verbeek has been surrounding and sheltering him more recently. They were ready to ship Fowler out before his injury, and have now traded for Trouba, so they’ll still have another vet in there, if they do move Fowler. Good bet they get a #6/7 in any Fowler trade as well.

It’s just natural when you put a young player in a Top 4 spot before he’s ready. He’s gonna rely on what he knows. So he inevitably lacks getting better at becoming an all-around player.

It’s literally why we have so many great offensively gifted dmen, who are garbage in their own end at 25-26. They usually get pushed too early and never develop defensively as they could, with just more time playing hard minutes in the AHL.

There’s just very few kids like Doughty or Seider who can keep getting significantly better (at their weaknesses) playing in the NHL with no protection. Most who play so early, only get gradually better, especially at their weaknesses.

The worst part is, it doesn’t take a long time to send a kid down for 20-70 games and work on things. Watch how much better Nemec is next year. It’ll be much closer to what we’ve seen from Clarke and Edvinsson this year. Same with Korchinski playing the first quarter of this season in the AHL. Luneau is another one. Anaheim halted how they were pushing him, and he’ll be much better for it.

Teams were smart with these players, and they’re gonna get much better results, rather than having a kid try playing through his weaknesses at the NHL level. It’s an unforgiving league.

Like I mentioned, Doughty and Seider were/are able to. We’ll see on Luke Hughes, but if you’re gonna trust a kid to do it, he’s the type you would. Far too many Provorov’s have existed though. For every Doughty or Seider, there’s a dozen Provorov’s, who never end up that top pairing, dominant player, because they were pushed too quickly, for whatever reason.

Mintyukov is a current example. He’s not going back to the AHL now. Too many people would have egg on their face. At least Verbeek is being responsible with his development now. Surrounding him with more protection, compared to last year, or even the original plan going into this year.

You don’t learn by failing at the NHL level. Teams learn to hide your weaknesses better. Unfortunately fans, the media, and coaches, don’t have the patience they should with very talented young dmen.

Provorov’s best bet for the rest of his career, is to go to a team like Buffalo or Detroit and become the partner, to one of their elite kids. He’ll look and play much better in that role, as a supporting Top 4 player, rather than going to a team to carry their 2nd pairing. He can do it, but he’s now more suited to be a high-end role player, in someone’s Top 4, than a main, go to guy.

I agree in the abstract about bringing D up from the AHL slowly.

In Provorov's case I think it might be less about when he was brought up as it was about him just having a lower ceiling. He was good in his first years in Philly, not a real #1 but there was a comfort at the NHL level (i.e. not constant failure) that he could have built off of and improved from. He just didn't have that type of ceiling in the way he thinks the game offensively. I think defensively he's solid, it's the offense where he's very average. I'm not ruling out that you're right though and perhaps he could have unlocked something offensively with an AHL season or two.