Player Discussion: Ivan Provorov

[CBJx614]

Not exactly CBJ related... but PROVY related!

 

[NotCommitted]

I think the team should be done “building”, while at the same time I think having 20 year old Mateychuk playing now is actually the best for him and the team, currently and in the long run.

You very well might be right, I really have no opinion on this since I haven't watched Mateychuk play in the AHL.

But generally speaking I'd say with D-men it's always a safer option to take it slow. It would be tough to find examples of players where you could say extra 40 games in the AHL ruined them, but pretty easy to find examples of young D-men who were brought up too soon and played minutes they couldn't handle and never became even close to the players they were supposed to become. And then people will never know if it was because they weren't developed properly or if they just were lacking in the first place.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I am open to keeping Provorov. He’s very steady and I don’t know if you’re going to find someone better on the market. However, keeping him essentially banishes Mateychuk to third pairing duty for a few seasons, or if he plays better than Provorov, you’re going to have a 6-7+ million defenseman on the third pair or on his off hand. Just don’t see the long term fit for the team or the player. He probably wants to play more minutes on the PP too and we just can’t offer that long or short term.

Christiansen isn’t as good of a player but is it that much of a difference that you would essentially let him go and let Provorov stay? Not sure personally.

Plus Hunt and Svozil in the wings, might just be better for us to get our draft pick and move on. Even if he’s a solid player.

But on the other hand, it’s clear Waddell wants to win in short order. Provorov does help us do that. And it allows us to let Mateychuk mature slower.

I mean I hate to keep bring ingredients up he NJ Devils but they are the other team I know quite a bit about and seem to have built up in a way I'd like to see us build. They've got Luke Hughes playing on a 3rd pairing with Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey playing in the AHL.

They roll 3 d pairs pretty evenly between 18-20 minutes each. Luke sits on the 18+ range. In comparison we are riding Werenski at 26 minutes a game and that is going to come back and bite hard if he gets injured or wears down as the season goes on.

That depth is not a bad problem to have. For that reason alone I think there is value in keeping him for a couple of years.

 

[CannonFire1]

I mean I hate to keep bring ingredients up he NJ Devils but they are the other team I know quite a bit about and seem to have built up in a way I'd like to see us build. They've got Luke Hughes playing on a 3rd pairing with Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey playing in the AHL.

They roll 3 d pairs pretty evenly between 18-20 minutes each. Luke sits on the 18+ range. In comparison we are riding Werenski at 26 minutes a game and that is going to come back and bite hard if he gets injured or wears down as the season goes on.

That depth is not a bad problem to have. For that reason alone I think there is value in keeping him for a couple of years.

I agree with the point you are making re: depth. Rather than signing Provorov long term, I would like to see them trade Provorov for a 1st plus, then package assets to acqire someone better than Provorov who fits with the long term vision for the team.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Vladimir Provorov committed to Ohio State’s men’s hockey team Monday. Yes, that’s the younger brother of Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Ivan Provorov.

Things that make you go, ‘hmm’?

Should we be reconsidering having Provorov near the top of Chris Johnston’s trade board on The Athletic?

Well, that remains to be seen.
“Ivan is happy to be in Columbus, happy to play there,” Provorov’s agent, Mark Gandler, told The Athletic on Tuesday, “He thinks that the team is going to go places. It’s clear that the team is better than it was last year. Personally, I have all the confidence in the world in (general manager) Don Waddell’s ability. He’s an experienced manager who knows what he’s doing. I think the team is going to improve every year.

“So we’ll just wait and see where it goes.”

So to be clear, would the top-four defenseman and pending unrestricted free agent be open to an extension in Columbus?

“Absolutely,” Gandler said. “Absolutely.”

“From the day I got (to Columbus), I’ve enjoyed my time here,” Provorov told The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline recently. “I like the city. I love the organization and the boys in the room. For me, I feel great here. But, obviously, a lot of times it’s out of your hands. So, I’m just focused on playing and doing the best I can and trying to help the team win.”
But the decision by his younger brother, 16, to commit to Ohio State doesn’t necessarily impact what happens between Ivan, 27, and the Jackets. They’re separate business decisions, Gandler said.

“As far as his younger brother, the only thing that his decision has to do with Ivan is that he knows Columbus, the family knows Columbus, and they are comfortable for him to develop in Columbus (at Ohio State),” Gandler said.

Vladimir currently plays for the AAA New Jersey Rockets and obviously, at only 16, won’t be joining Ohio State for two or three years.

“Whether or not Ivan is still there, if Ivan stays it’s going to be a bonus, but it’s not really a determining factor,” Gandler said. “The determining factor is the fact that Ohio State is a very good program with an excellent coaching staff. It’s going places. In a very friendly, comfortable environment.”
The brothers are very close, Gandler said, despite the age difference. And it would be amazing if they were both in Columbus plying their craft at the same time, of course. But I wouldn’t read into that to imagine any big discounts are coming from Provorov ahead of July 1.

Gandler and Waddell haven’t discussed a possible extension yet. That discussion, which could go either way, likely waits for the New Year.

While I think the Jackets are open to an extension discussion, just as Provorov is, what remains to be seen is what both sides think is a fair number. Provorov is in the last year of a six-year contract with an average annual value of $6.75 million. He plays 23 minutes a night. He turns 28 next month. What’s he worth on July 1?

With the growing salary cap, agents and front offices are having very interesting conversations these days. Salaries are about to spike big time around the league over the next few years.

Whatever number (and term) the Jackets are comfortable with will almost surely be different than what the July 1 market could provide Provorov. So odds are, if the Jackets aren’t in a playoff spot closer to March 7 (although they’re still in the fight right now), he’s probably still getting traded. Could he still come back to the Jackets on July 1 in that scenario? Who knows.

But I would say the news this week of his younger brother committing to Ohio State at least gives everyone involved something to think about.

TLDR of both stories: Provorov wants to stay. Jackets haven’t had any contract talks with him. But Provorov camp is now openly pressing the CBJ to negotiate to keep Provorov.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

TLDR of both stories: Provorov wants to stay. Jackets haven’t had any contract talks with him. But Provorov camp is now openly pressing the CBJ to negotiate to keep Provorov.

For me it's all about the dollars. How badly does he wants to stay, as measured in money?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

For me it's all about the dollars. How badly does he wants to stay, as measured in money?

Same as me. I’d like to keep him in theory, but there’s a limit.

A D core of

Werenski-Fabbro
Provorov-Severson
Mateychuk-Gudbranson
Christiansen

Is very appealing next year In theory. But it has to make sense in dollars.

 

[S1N4TR4]

Same as me. I’d like to keep him in theory, but there’s a limit.

A D core of

Werenski-Fabbro
Provorov-Severson
Mateychuk-Gudbranson
Christiansen

Is very appealing next year In theory. But it has to make sense in dollars.

playing mateychuk 14-16 mins a night on third pair doesn’t seem ideal at the expense of resigning provy.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

playing mateychuk 14-16 mins a night on third pair doesn’t seem ideal at the expense of resigning provy.

Or you could rotate 3 pairs at 18-20 a night with solid depth. 3rd pairings only play so few minutes a night if they aren't good.

 

[S1N4TR4]

Or you could rotate 3 pairs at 18-20 a night with solid depth. 3rd pairings only play so few minutes a night if they aren't good.

I don’t see a foreseeable future where Z is only playing 20 minutes max.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I don’t see a foreseeable future where Z is only playing 20 minutes max.

He doesn't have to with depth but he also doesn't have to play 26 a night either when a 4d pairing gets so severely limited.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

TLDR of both stories: Provorov wants to stay. Jackets haven’t had any contract talks with him. But Provorov camp is now openly pressing the CBJ to negotiate to keep Provorov.

Just a consideration here from a PR perspective.

Columbus has had such a reputation where players don't want to play after the Great Jarmo Exodus of '19-'21

Now we've turned thing around where Zach Werenski talks about loving it here. Johnny came here of his own free will and enjoyed being here. Now Provorov is talking about how much he enjoys it here.

Of course it comes down to a business decision and money but when you have a quality hockey player who openly wants to stay here I think you at least have the courtesy discussion to see if things fit. If he fits the game and style DW wants this team to be they should talk. If he doesn't fit then we should move along and make that clear.

I'd just hate to see a player who truly wants to be here and is a solid contributor on the ice not being given the chance at some clarity on where they stand.

 

[majormajor]

I imagine it would work more like it did in Tampa with Hedman and McDonagh and Sergachev. All LD, and all playing more than 20 minutes a night. Sergachev took some shifts at top pair RD in place of Rutta or whoever was the nominal top pair RD. Unless you think Fabbro has to play all 25 minutes next to Werenski?

I'd just hate to see a player who truly wants to be here and is a solid contributor on the ice not being given the chance at some clarity on where they stand.

I imagine if such clarity existed they would probably share it with Provorov.

Wads has rarely been in a hurry to get into contract talks with players, and in this case it makes sense to see where we're at in the Spring. How consistent has Provorov been, at that point? How ready is Mateychuk (we really need to see a stint in the NHL)? Is Fabbro holding up?

 

[ColumbusTrill]

How about do him a favor a trade him to a contender at the tdl then re-sign him this offseason

 

[Viqsi]

Not exactly CBJ related... but PROVY related!

Well, shit. Now we have to extend Ivan.

 

[Crede777]

I think Provorov has proven that he can play on the right side of a pairing if someone like Mateychuk takes over the left side. If Fabbro and Provorov keep up their level of play, I would honestly bump Severson down.

 

[ViD]

Don’t forget about the whole “wants to play in Columbus” mentality that the org has been pushing for.

It’s now clear he wants to stay so the deal is likely to happen and he might take a discount

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Don’t forget about the whole “wants to play in Columbus” mentality that the org has been pushing for.

It’s now clear he wants to stay so the deal is likely to happen and he might take a discount

The article itself mentions that Waddell hasn’t even spoke to his agent about an extension (which he has for Olivier. So it’s not a thing about we’re not extending UFAs right now) and that there was no discount coming.

I still think that Provorov gets dealt but I think keeping him is something we should explore.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I imagine if such clarity existed they would probably share it with Provorov.

Wads has rarely been in a hurry to get into contract talks with players, and in this case it makes sense to see where we're at in the Spring. How consistent has Provorov been, at that point? How ready is Mateychuk (we really need to see a stint in the NHL)? Is Fabbro holding up?

We might have just gotten an answer in the short term on Fabbro tonight. Obviously the trade deadline is a hard stop on making a decision but I think as a player he'd like some clarity on where things stand leading up to that point.

 

[Forepar]

Or you could rotate 3 pairs at 18-20 a night with solid depth. 3rd pairings only play so few minutes a night if they aren't good.

More dependent on special teams. If lots of PP/PK, then at least some D are going to play more minutes (Z), some will play significantly less (Harris, probably Fabro, can I add Severson to that list?).
Not sure where Mateychuk's minutes would land - he probably gets PP2 time, but probably not as much PK (although his skating suggests he'd be great PKer).
CBJ could reduce Z's 5x5 time, but at the end of most games, he still will be 25 minutes.

 

[VT]

Trade target Provorov open to extension with Jackets — The Fourth Period

Several teams are eyeing Ivan Provorov, but might be interested in an extension in Columbus.

www.thefourthperiod.com

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Trade target Provorov open to extension with Jackets — The Fourth Period

Several teams are eyeing Ivan Provorov, but might be interested in an extension in Columbus.

www.thefourthperiod.com

Provorov would be more expensive to sign in July than he would be today. If he hits the market, he’s gone. I don’t see him returning

 

[Cyclones Rock]

The way I look at it is that the CBJ have only one slot left for a big money/top 4 defenseman. Z and Severson take two of these slots. Mateychuk has a very good chance to be number 3. So the decision would be "do we want/need to commit to Provorov for 7 years at around $7 million/year"?

My answer to my question would be "no". Nothing wrong with kicking the tires and trying to get him to sign a lower money 3 or 4 year deal, but this is going to be his last big contract and it's highly unlikely that he'd bite. I sure wouldn't if I were in his shoes.

Our overall defense isn't at the level where there should be no/little room to obtain another good/large contract dman. Provorov doesn't fit the bill to me to fill the 4th slot. His play this year has been pretty good-but that's a common happening in a "contract year".

The CBJ will be best served by trading him for assets at the TDL, IMO.

 

[majormajor]

The way I look at it is that the CBJ have only one slot left for a big money/top 4 defenseman. Z and Severson take two of these slots. Mateychuk has a very good chance to be number 3. So the decision would be "do we want/need to commit to Provorov for 7 years at around $7 million/year"?

My answer to my question would be "no". Nothing wrong with kicking the tires and trying to get him to sign a lower money 3 or 4 year deal, but this is going to be his last big contract and it's highly unlikely that he'd bite. I sure wouldn't if I were in his shoes.

Our overall defense isn't at the level where there should be no/little room to obtain another good/large contract dman. Provorov doesn't fit the bill to me to fill the 4th slot. His play this year has been pretty good-but that's a common happening in a "contract year".

The CBJ will be best served by trading him for assets at the TDL, IMO.

I might be staking out a controversial opinion but I tend to think our D-group is actually kind of good. We give up a lot of chances partially because we're an aggressive team, and we also enjoy the benefits of that where our mediocre bottom nine forwards can still produce offense with a guy like Severson weaving around with them. That's underappreciated. I think our group will be well above average once Mateychuk gets established.

Provorov for his part does not produce as much offense, I think partially because his legs weigh 500 lbs each and he doesn't get around quickly anymore. He is at least an average defender and I tend to think overall he is either a solid #3 or a solid middle of middle pair D. D of that caliber are now worth $6m+ in free agency.

We're so fortunate on the left side to have Werenski and Mateychuk. And the player I really think we should be looking for (a multi-year project) is a Vlasic / Tanev / Pelech / McDonagh type highly-mobile elite stopper. I'm okay having another big D contract, but I want to keep our powder dry to go big on someone who has that elite defensive quality that we lack.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

The way I look at it is that the CBJ have only one slot left for a big money/top 4 defenseman. Z and Severson take two of these slots. Mateychuk has a very good chance to be number 3. So the decision would be "do we want/need to commit to Provorov for 7 years at around $7 million/year"?

My answer to my question would be "no". Nothing wrong with kicking the tires and trying to get him to sign a lower money 3 or 4 year deal, but this is going to be his last big contract and it's highly unlikely that he'd bite. I sure wouldn't if I were in his shoes.

Our overall defense isn't at the level where there should be no/little room to obtain another good/large contract dman. Provorov doesn't fit the bill to me to fill the 4th slot. His play this year has been pretty good-but that's a common happening in a "contract year".

The CBJ will be best served by trading him for assets at the TDL, IMO.

The sad thing is he's better than Severson. Jarmo made that bed and we have to lie in it.