Ivan has been rock solid so far -- along with much of the team in the underlying #s -- but per usual, he sees most of his time with Couturier. He's getting individual results too. But his leash is so long, his usage never goes down no matter the process
or results. At a certain point, results are inevitable. Because he's a very good player. No one is surprised at his peaks, although regression will hit (not a dirty word, just reality -- if anything, he's too fortunate with the metrics and not fortunate enough with the results).
I know he has 3 PP points, which is already more than last season, but it's the evaluative hill I'll die on saying he's our 3rd best PP defenseman, and that he's already seeing PP1 minutes in crunch time worries me long-term, when Sanheim hasn't seen a lick of PP action (how many great passes has he made in the o-zone so far?), and Ghost is always 1 mistake away from punitive action.
For now, I trust my 250 games of data and opinion (plus juniors). His offensive strength has always been off the rush as an entry player and shooter below the dots, not set-up or controlling the puck. In a base set-up, he really isn't a playmaker, and he tends to play stationary with little deception. None of his 3 points really change my opinion on that (an entry pass to TK who then threated it to Lindblom; a great slapper albeit from the blue line; a basic umbrella one timer pass to Voracek, who uncharacteristically roofed it, on the RIGHT mind you). If he becomes an elite PP producer, egg on face. And he still has the talent to be a beast at ES. But I don't think his PP time exists in a vacuum, relative to role and contract. To quote a recent post:
- Travis Sanheim had 5 PP points in 84 minutes last season....Provorov had 2 PP points in 128 minutes, 1 of which was on a goal by Sanheim, who never QB'd the unit alone
- The season before, Provorov had 5 PP points in 147 minutes. 3 of those PPP Giroux recorded a point on as well, 1 other point was off a Gostisbehere goal
- 3/5 of Provorov's PP points in 2016-2017 were also scored with the 1st unit. In summary: that's 5 PP points out of 12 PP points scored with the 2nd unit across 3 years of non-stop PP usage. Sanheim had 5 in one season, and little more than half a season of PP usage at that
- Of all NHL defensemen with at least 200 PP minutes the last 3 seasons -- Ivan is at 414 minutes -- Provorov is dead last with 1.74 points/60, and that includes his 1st unit time. 2nd worst is Vlasic with 2.26 points/60. Changing the parameters to >300 minutes? Next worst is Shea Theodore at 2.86 p/60
