Confirmed with Link: Ivan Provorov Signs Extension - 6 Years/$40.5M ($6.75AAV)
- Thread starter Beef Invictus
- Start date
Appleyard
Registered User
Depends completely on his minutes... when you play as tough a minutes as he did last year it is very, very difficult to get over ~49%.
Appleyard
Registered User
I mean, 17 Dmen in the league last year played:
<45% ZSR
>50.1% Corsi QoC
0/17 got over 50% Corsi
2/17 (Hjalmarsson and Lindholm) got over 49% Corsi
Provorov was:
4/17 in terms of Corsi
2/17 in terms of ExGF (after Hjalmarsson)
3/17 in P/60
And he had EIGHT more ExGF/60 than any of the other 16 guys. (Severson was 2nd)
<45% ZSR
>50.1% Corsi QoC
0/17 got over 50% Corsi
2/17 (Hjalmarsson and Lindholm) got over 49% Corsi
Provorov was:
4/17 in terms of Corsi
2/17 in terms of ExGF (after Hjalmarsson)
3/17 in P/60
And he had EIGHT more ExGF/60 than any of the other 16 guys. (Severson was 2nd)
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 50,837
- 22,161
Corsi is a bit overrated, lots of players with good Corsi but mediocre everything else, and some teams inflate Corsi by firing everything on the net.
And as Appleyard points out, role is a big factor on Corsi.
Role impacts other stats, I've noticed that a lot of defensive defenseman have good xGA/60 but meh xGF%. That is, they're good at scoring suppression but even worse at creating scoring opportunities. Without a deep breakdown, is this a lack of talent or role? Scoring suppression guys will play more with leads (taking fewer chances), will be on the ice against better opposing scorers where they're happy just to get the puck out of the D-zone, etc. Maybe a mix of both - but shows why all advanced metrics, viewed in isolation, can be misleading.
I'm skeptical whether a lot of analysts have the statistical sophistication to deal with issues like multi-collinearity and other issues that can result in misleading results if not properly accounted for. As better data comes available from motion tracking, etc., this analysis may improve.
And as Appleyard points out, role is a big factor on Corsi.
Role impacts other stats, I've noticed that a lot of defensive defenseman have good xGA/60 but meh xGF%. That is, they're good at scoring suppression but even worse at creating scoring opportunities. Without a deep breakdown, is this a lack of talent or role? Scoring suppression guys will play more with leads (taking fewer chances), will be on the ice against better opposing scorers where they're happy just to get the puck out of the D-zone, etc. Maybe a mix of both - but shows why all advanced metrics, viewed in isolation, can be misleading.
I'm skeptical whether a lot of analysts have the statistical sophistication to deal with issues like multi-collinearity and other issues that can result in misleading results if not properly accounted for. As better data comes available from motion tracking, etc., this analysis may improve.
bennysflyers16
Registered User
- Jan 26, 2004
- 85,981
- 64,272
Provorov-Ghost
Sanheim-Myers
Morin-Niskanen
Ezpz cup win
Morin sounds like he is really struggling , doubt he gets 6th spot over Braun
Striiker
Former Flyers Fan
BritainStix
Registered User
- Oct 20, 2016
- 6,725
- 9,798
JojoTheWhale
"You should keep it." -- Striiker
- May 22, 2008
- 35,706
- 110,508
Foggy14
Registered User
- Sep 13, 2017
- 1,902
- 5,735
benny, is there a source for this?
Take it with a grain of salt, but the only specific mention of Big Sam's play at camp I saw was this one from Carchidi.
Don't disagree that he'll have a tough time finding a spot.
- Sep 28, 2014
- 78,086
- 125,502
- Sep 28, 2014
- 78,086
- 125,502
Haven't heard that from any source, but he was never getting a top 6 spot anyway. He's battling for #7 at the moment.
JojoTheWhale
"You should keep it." -- Striiker
- May 22, 2008
- 35,706
- 110,508
I saw the same thing @bennysflyers16 did. I think it was Jake Fahringer on Twitter.
Obviously I wasn't present so I'm not endorsing it as an evaluation. But it was out there.
Obviously I wasn't present so I'm not endorsing it as an evaluation. But it was out there.
- Sep 28, 2014
- 78,086
- 125,502
Yeah I couldn't really give a shit less when Jake Whateveringer says on Twitter lol.
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 50,837
- 22,161
We'll get a chance to see with our own eyes starting tomorrow.
Looks like Provorov was market, with Werenski and MacAvoy in effect getting 4 yr, $22-23M deals (based on $7+M QO).
So it's $9M a year for two UFA years, but 5-6 years from now.
(Trouba averages about 8.25, but starts getting paid a year from now for his UFA years).
Fletcher has been paying market prices, not getting discounts, not getting fleeced.
Looks like Provorov was market, with Werenski and MacAvoy in effect getting 4 yr, $22-23M deals (based on $7+M QO).
So it's $9M a year for two UFA years, but 5-6 years from now.
(Trouba averages about 8.25, but starts getting paid a year from now for his UFA years).
Fletcher has been paying market prices, not getting discounts, not getting fleeced.
Foggy14
Registered User
- Sep 13, 2017
- 1,902
- 5,735
His numbers away from couts are pretty brutal though and in a softer minutes too.
Appleyard
Registered User
Yeh, but everyone on the teams minutes are worse without Bergeron 2.0!
Striiker
Former Flyers Fan
Of course everyones numbers will be worse away from Couturier... he's one of the best centers in the league. He can score and play selke-level defense. Hard to be in a situation better than that.
That's also a good example of how quality of teammates matters more than quality of competition. Playing with Couturier against other top lines is easier than playing with scrubs against scrubs.
That's also a good example of how quality of teammates matters more than quality of competition. Playing with Couturier against other top lines is easier than playing with scrubs against scrubs.
Of course, but there's a difference in putting competent numbers away from couts and getting caved in.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,691
- 89,937
Yup. Even a guy who couldn't make a 10 foot pass performed admirably away from Coots' line.
Striiker
Former Flyers Fan
Probably a lot due to how we've had a steep drop off from our top line to our bottom 9 for a while now.
Yet player who can't make a pass in gudas won ashbee last year, while this whole forum agreed it should probably go to Sanheim. Seems like they didn't struggle as much away from couts.
Striiker
Former Flyers Fan
But all of their numbers are still better with Couturier, which was my only point.
I'm not complexly sure what you're trying to argue here, but all I was saying was of course numbers look better with Couturier, since he's so damn good. Hard to imagine someone doing better without him than with him, regardless of who they're playing against.
DJ Mix
Registered User
For what my opinion is worth, Sam Morin looked pretty bad in drills on Saturday. A small sample size I know, but he stood out as making a few terrible passes, tripping over himself once, and not knowing where he was supposed to be. I was really hoping he would look like he belongs.
That being said, Hagg looked great in drills, so maybe drills aren’t everything.
