Its time for a discount core 4 era!

[Aashir]

You could argue Matthews based on Goal scoring.
Marner and JT are a nightmare.
Nylander, ROR, and Rielly are all excellent values.

You could, if he continues to score them

His wrists look shot, images of wrapped wrists have come up. 3 years with wrist injuries. Could he his second surgery in as many years.

I would be concerned with his goal scoring ability.

 

[thewave]

You could, if he continues to score them

His wrists look shot, images of wrapped wrists have come up. 3 years with wrist injuries. Could he his second surgery in as many years.

I would be concerned with his goal scoring ability.

Thats the tough call. I would keep him if he says he will sign for 13m or so. We aren't going to get a goal scorer like that very easily going forward. Nylander and Matthews are must keeps in my books but nothing we can do if they won't commit.

 

[Chrysalis99]

Question for your hard core Leat fans, what happens with ROR? Do they try and sign him for a couple years or let him go? To me he looked as good as the big 4 during the playoffs. I would guess his points/TOI is better than the big 4 too. I like the guy and think an entire season with the Leafs could help the team and change its makeup significantly. I’d also guess he’d like to stay in Toronto.

 

[hamzarocks]

You could argue Matthews based on Goal scoring.
Marner and JT are a nightmare.
Nylander, ROR, and Rielly are all excellent values.

Zero arguments for Matthews as a top 3 player

He was maybe top 15 this year, closer to 20-25 this year

He wasn't even better than Marner this year

 

[HamiltonNHL]

You clowns are sillier than Shanahan.

There won't be discounts.

 

[Gabriel426]

Question for your hard core Leat fans, what happens with ROR? Do they try and sign him for a couple years or let him go? To me he looked as good as the big 4 during the playoffs. I would guess his points/TOI is better than the big 4 too. I like the guy and think an entire season with the Leafs could help the team and change its makeup significantly. I’d also guess he’d like to stay in Toronto.

I think ROR got injured or reinjured his finger in Game 3 or 4 Vs TB.
I would keep ROR and sign him an extra year bc he is someone who can and will change the culture of this team.
Just resigning guys like Schenn and Acciari, it won’t move the needle much but ROR is a different beast.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

In terms of the implosion of a potential dynasty and some of the most horrific loss of talent, depth, draft capitol and opportunity cost, the Tavares signing is objectively the worst FA signing of all time. Zero hyperbole.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The core picked their fate.

Dubas signed the fate.

 

[cannucky]

Zero arguments for Matthews as a top 3 player

He was maybe top 15 this year, closer to 20-25 this year

He wasn't even better than Marner this year

In fact he was only 3 goals and 2 points better than Zach Hyman who makes exactly half as much money FML

 

[Chrysalis99]

I think ROR got injured or reinjured his finger in Game 3 or 4 Vs TB.
I would keep ROR and sign him an extra year bc he is someone who can and will change the culture of this team.
Just resigning guys like Schenn and Acciari, it won’t move the needle much but ROR is a different beast.

ROR is a quality guy, real leader who could have a super positive effect on the team. Take both Schenn and Acciari and the 3 of them together changes the locker room for the better. They should be a bigger priority than the core 4 right now. If you‘re looking to change the makeup of the team those 3 guys added to the core 4 might just put the Leafs over the top.

 

[seanlinden]

Their identical NTCs all become active on July 1st 2023 fyi.

Nylander doesn't have the same protection as Marner/Matthews... it's just a 10-team NTC, which shouldn't be too much of a hurdle.

As for Marner, you are correct in that the Leafs don't necessarily have an imminent trade threat if he doesn't take a discount, but of the 3, he's probably the most likely to want to stay in Toronto.

 

[MCR74]

There is ZERO chance they agree to less. Matthews will want a long term deal where he remains a Top 5 contract for years to come and Marner will want what Matthews gets.

ZERO CHANCE.

And I'm sure we'll hear about it from Paul.

 

[seanlinden]

I will just quickly add that it would have been nice to get more out of Bunting/Jarnkrok/Kerfoot offensively. Kerfoot and Bunting did have some clutch moments, and Jarnkrok was generating opportunities and was at least effective when he wasn't putting up points (like Kerfoot), which is not terrible considering he is a 2 mill player.

I don't think Bunting or Kerfoot should be brought back though. Not when you have Knies and Jarnkrok as guys who can handle top 6 LW duties (or at least 2/3 of the top 9 LW duties) plus Robertson and a few other prospects who should have a chance as soon as next year for another top 9 LW job. Both will want to get paid with term and that is not really what we need.

But ultimately, 2 goals out of your top 4 forwards was our downfall... Especially when being "invisible" would have been an improvement. Marner/Matthews had mistakes that cost us goals against too.

To be fair, when you add up all the money spent on Kerfoot, Jarnkrok, O'Reilly, Knies, Bunting, and Acciari; it's $10.6m on 6 forwards. That's really not a lot.

Have to agree with your bolded point as well. The Leafs have spent years shuffling the deck chairs around these 4, and gotten no further ahead. Even this year, yeah, it's great that they got past the 1st round and knocked off Tampa... but let's not forget, they were outplayed in the series. They ran into Vasilevsky who was apparently playing hurt, and knocked our Cernak in game 1.... despite that, they needed 3 OT games to get past Tampa.

Of the 5 games they won and 11 they played; there was only one that they actually pulled away in... game 2 against Tampa. You look at Carolina's playoff so far.... against New Jersey they won games 5-1, 6-1, lost 8-4 won 6-1, and 3-2 OT.

I'm not so much convinced that it's a cap problem, as much of a culture problem, where everyone just expects these 4 to take over the game. Keefe probably perpetuates it by constantly trying to stack 3/4 together on a line... and considering Keefe is coach #2, I'm not sure a coaching change can fix that.

 

[stealth1]

I don't think there is necessarily anything wrong with the moves he made at the TDL.

But for whatever reason, the defense did suck hard in the playoffs this year. Years past, not as much of an issue, but this year? Gio/McCabe/Holl and even Brodie at times were far too many really rough games with just basic puck movement and management. Holl was the one who ended up getting scapegoated, but there were more than a few times when Gio/McCabe had rougher games than Holl had at any point in these playoffs.

They were good in the regular season so IDK what happened. McCabe may just be playoff inexperience but Gio/Holl/Brodie have been there before and played much better against Tampa just a year (and a few weeks against Florida/Tampa in the regular season) before.

I can tell what happened. They got slower. Against Florida they looked slow.

 

[Gabriel426]

ROR is a quality guy, real leader who could have a super positive effect on the team. Take both Schenn and Acciari and the 3 of them together changes the locker room for the better. They should be a bigger priority than the core 4 right now. If you‘re looking to change the makeup of the team those 3 guys added to the core 4 might just put the Leafs over the top.

Absolutely, I think AM, MM and Willie will learn to be better player with ROR, Schenn and Acciari than guys like JT, Jumbo and Marleau.

Leafs better act fast bc ROR is the perfect replacement for Bergy in Boston

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I can tell what happened. They got slower. Against Florida they looked slow.

Okay but that doesn't really explain the wide swing from even a few weeks prior playing against the same team and not looking nearly as bad or slow.

They looked scared. Not of getting hit but of making mistakes. I can understand that for McCabe in his first playoffs of his career, and same with Liljegren given his age, but this is not the first time for Brodie/Holl/Gio and they looked like they were rookies.

They didn't look scared in the regular season. Probably because nothing was really on the line... But we can't have everyone afraid of making a mistake and screwing up basic things. Because if a guy like Gio does that, then really who wouldn't in this market?

Think the same can apply to a lot of the core guys at this point too. Marner especially. I think the pressure is too much for him and he probably could meet the expectations if he was playing somewhere that wasn't his hometown. He is certainly good enough and I think he has it in him, just not here. I think Matthews/Tavares/Rielly don't let it get to themselves as much and I think Nylander is just used to it from being around pro hockey since he was a kid.

 

[Gabriel426]

I can tell what happened. They got slower. Against Florida they looked slow.

TJ dropped so much, and Holl is Holl.
When TJ is slow to react and not reading plays well, he is not effective as he is not fast or physical. He is the guy I would trade and get a more physical Dman.

Okay but that doesn't really explain the wide swing from even a few weeks prior playing against the same team and not looking nearly as bad or slow.

They looked scared. Not of getting hit but of making mistakes. I can understand that for McCabe in his first playoffs of his career, and same with Liljegren given his age, but this is not the first time for Brodie/Holl/Gio and they looked like they were rookies.

They didn't look scared in the regular season. Probably because nothing was really on the line... But we can't have everyone afraid of making a mistake and screwing up basic things. Because if a guy like Gio does that, then really who wouldn't in this market?

They did played scare. Afraid to make mistakes.

Reilly is the only player who was playing to win instead of playing no to lose.

The pressure got to them but most importantly the top guys beside Reilly didn’t bail them out.

 

[Peace Frog]

I would trade as many of the core 4 as I could, but the key to these trades, is what do you target for the returns?

Do you go after 1st round picks? Top prospects? NHL’ers that would slot into your top 4 on defence, or the top six on the forward unit? A mixture of all the above?

Or do you target specific types of young players that you can immediately replace the core with? Players that might not be as skilled, but are skilled enough and have that warrior approach to their game. Players built to perform in the playoffs!

I know what route I would take, if it were up to me. What about you?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I would trade as many of the core 4 as I could, but the key to these trades, is what do you target for the returns?

Do you go after 1st round picks? Top prospects? NHL’ers that would slot into your top 4 on defence, or the top six on the forward unit? A mixture of all the above?

Or do you target specific types of young players that you can immediately replace the core with? Players that might not be as skilled, but are skilled enough and have that warrior approach to their game. Players built to perform in the playoffs!

I know what route I would take, if it were up to me. What about you?

Mixture. I think it is a younger guy who can immediately slot into the top 6 as a replacement (i.e. Necas, Bratt, Mercer, Jarvis) + another good young guy who is either close to the NHL or in it but is not as good (i.e. McLeod, Holtz, Drury), and a 1st round pick. Plus maybe some other more minor pieces like mid-round picks or prospects who are further away. Eichel and Jones are probably good packages to look at, especially if we are talking Marner. Matthews should blow any previous package out of the water and Nylander probably is more in the DeBrincat range.

Going after players who are built to perform in the playoffs would probably cause more problems than good though. Nobody has taken a huge market team to a Cup win since when? Maybe Chicago/Boston over a decade ago and both of those franchises had similarly long droughts before eventually getting it done. Not too many of those guys still around. It is one thing to lead Tampa or Washington or St. Louis or even LA to a Cup win when they aren't the hottest ticket in town and another to lead Montreal/Toronto/Rangers when they've had lengthy droughts (especially in Toronto's case) and they are one of, if not the hottest, tickets in town.

Those teams may fill up buildings when they are good, but you play in a tough market when you fill up buildings even when you are bad.

And especially when you are a Toronto kid like Marner who has grown up a Leafs fan and knows the kind of stuff that gets thrown around in this market when things don't go their way. He doesn't even need to have social media... He can easily imagine what is being said about him or he will find a way to hear about it.

 

[notDatsyuk]

There was no option of signing him for 8 he had offers from other teams we had to at least match , Nylander held out quite literally until the last hour and if Dubas had handed him a notice terminating his team payed insurance policy and told him next years offer will be 500k less , enjoy your year in Sweden then there would be no 11 million dollar players on this team , in fact there would only be two 7.5 -8 million dollar guys and one 5 million dollar guy . Twenty million for 3 young studs is way better than 40 million for 3 and JT who we really didn't need after a great season .

Regardless of what some other team may or may not have offered him (there is no proof, and rumored offers were as high as $14M, so we didn't match), we did not "have to match".

And I'm not sure of your logic: if we hadn't signed Nylander then we would not have any $11M contracts?

 

[notDatsyuk]

The idiocy of believing that Tavares would have taken 8 million when he was offered 13 is unreal

He did take $11, so we don't know.

He was, at that time, worth maybe $11 for one year, but for 7 years, $8 per would have been closer to reasonable. If he insisted on $11 x 7, then the answer should have been "bye-bye".

 

[notDatsyuk]

Tavares has a Full No Movement Clause in his deal, so this team will be stuck with him for two more years. I doubt they move Marner and Matthews, so that leaves Nylander the guy who you can move. That is also the guy I would look to deal this off-season, to bring in a different dynamic to the team.

I agree Willy is the easy one to move, and would likely bring the best return, but that means you're keeping three $11M players who disappeared in the clutch and trading away the $7M player who didn't.

 

[34]

Tavares at 8 isn’t a discount

Tavares at 4 is a discount

He is so far behind the other three as a player

He’s a high end 3C if he plays pp2

Tavares is NOT worth $5M at this point in his career. The team is better off without him.

 

[authentic]

To be fair, when you add up all the money spent on Kerfoot, Jarnkrok, O'Reilly, Knies, Bunting, and Acciari; it's $10.6m on 6 forwards. That's really not a lot.

Have to agree with your bolded point as well. The Leafs have spent years shuffling the deck chairs around these 4, and gotten no further ahead. Even this year, yeah, it's great that they got past the 1st round and knocked off Tampa... but let's not forget, they were outplayed in the series. They ran into Vasilevsky who was apparently playing hurt, and knocked our Cernak in game 1.... despite that, they needed 3 OT games to get past Tampa.

Of the 5 games they won and 11 they played; there was only one that they actually pulled away in... game 2 against Tampa. You look at Carolina's playoff so far.... against New Jersey they won games 5-1, 6-1, lost 8-4 won 6-1, and 3-2 OT.

I'm not so much convinced that it's a cap problem, as much of a culture problem, where everyone just expects these 4 to take over the game. Keefe probably perpetuates it by constantly trying to stack 3/4 together on a line... and considering Keefe is coach #2, I'm not sure a coaching change can fix that.

First I heard of this, but makes sense I guess. I keep saying this but overall Tampa did not outplay us, they outplayed us in the 1st period of the games only. Guarantee if you dig up all the stats from the 2nd period on the Leafs outplayed them handily.

Also the teams biggest problem is starting games on time and showing a full 60 minute effort from game to game. When they turn it on they show they are a force but only when they choose to do so. It's unfortunate but in the short term I can't think of much we can do that will change this other than a new coach.

 

[Leafblooded]

I've been saying it for years:

Running Kadri out of town was the deathblow to this team. That man bled blue and would have done anything for his hometown. I still cannot believe how this stupid city turned on a heart and soul guy who was born, bred and raised in Toronto and was actually willing to put his body and heart on the line for this team (racism? Idk). Naz had the energy and personal experience to keep these overpaid children in line,. He'd been through it all with us and earned to play out his career in Toronto. We don't deserve to win after that, and the proof is in the entitlement pudding that the core of this team eats on the daily.

I never fully got behind Hyman, but signing JT directly led to the loss of both Naz AND Hyman. See how that's working out for us now.

Pyjama boy as captain? He didn't earn it. Naz did. What a f***ing sad day that was. Kerfoot and Barrie for Naz and Hyman (FA loss, I know). Just pathetic roster management and so obviously a huge huge mistake.