Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[sampollock]

Meeker on 690 sames don't get your hopes up.....

 

[Scriptor]

You’re such a Pierre Luc Dubois super fan. Every post I see you in, it’s you overhyping this guy. He scores 60-70 points on a good offensive team. He ain’t no $9 million dollar stud. I get that You think this guy will be the next Francophone superstar but be realistic on what he is.

You're obviously misunderstanding, or misrepresenting, what I'm saying. I am not saying that Dubois is worth 9M, nor am I saying we should offer him 9M. I actually think we could structure a contract so that he makes more money than Suzuki, but earns as much or slightly less as an AAV towards the cap, long term.

My point about Dubois at 9M is to refute the worries that we would be unable to add more talent in order to become a legit contender.

I use Toronto as an example, before the rising cap, because that will apply to Toronto as well, and every other team, and it is quite clear that Montreal will have more depth of talent than Toronto, for the same maximum Cap expenditure, overall, even of it were to sell out 9M for Dubois (not that to should).

I think it is worthwhile to overbudget expenditures, to demonstrate just how much leeway there truly is.

But, aside from that, I am a fan of Dubois, and not remotely because he's from Quebec. He's the type of Big C with a bit of a chip on his shoulder we haven't had for ages, even of Dach is trending well as a big-bodied C.

For those with the argument that since we have Dach, we don't need Dubois, it's simply false. You don't win with a strict minimum of quality players (Suzuki, Dach, Caufield, maybe Slafkovsky up front, Guhle and Matheson on the back end, maybe Mailloux and Hutson) and adding Dubois to get to 12 cornerstone players on your roster is not hampering anything.

Not Cap wise, not style wise, not team culture wise.

 

[le_sean]

Columbus is actually a pleasant place to live. Buffalo and Winnipeg, not as much, but it's always personal, as I mentioned in another post and it's not for us to decide whether it is a good place to be for someone else.

Pleasant in a way that Ottawa is - meaning boring AF. It’s also a franchise that’s only had one successful season and that was simply going to Round 2.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Meeker on 690 sames don't get your hopes up.....

who

 

[le_sean]

Meeker on 690 sames don't get your hopes up.....

A guy with zero connections that is barely known over Friedman/Kypreos? Okay…

 

[morhilane]

I have 2 questions:

Jets have to give QO to Dubois to retain his RFA. Is the deadline to take him to arbitration before or after July 1st?

If a team like Colorado or Boston can offer sheet Dubois for 1 year/6.4m$ rental, compensation is 1st & 3rd. Isn't that devalue Dubois return for the Jets? Why would any team offer more then that to get Dubois for 1 year?

I think Dubois would just sign the Jets QO on July 1 if he's not traded by then.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Meeker on 690 sames don't get your hopes up.....

Howie Meeker?

I'd like to add that Kypreos thinks PLD to Montreal is highly likely, but this off-season might not be when, but he and Friedman seem to state that it's as close to a guarantee as it can be.

I'll again state I don't trust Kypreos the most, but he did get Weber and his injury, so it's not like he's always out in left field by himself.

 

[salbutera]

Howie Meeker?

I'd like to add that Kypreos thinks PLD to Montreal is highly likely, but this off-season might not be when, but he and Friedman seem to state that it's as close to a guarantee as it can be.

I'll again state I don't trust Kypreos the most, but he did get Weber and his injury, so it's not like he's always out in left field by himself.

Meeker Guerrier

 

[Scriptor]

You're not concerned at all about spending 25 mil long term on three players who have never hit 30 goals or 65 points? And then decided to compare them to a group of players who each generally provide p/gp production with elite on-ice impacts?

The point of a rebuild is to put yourself in a position to get elite players. I don't even care much about paying Dubois (although 9 mil would make his life a living hell in the same way Drouin's contract has hurt him), but that's a crazy comparison.



Please show me where I claimed that the Habs are the only team he wants to play for.

And if you don't want to give any credence to established insiders or beat reporters from both markets then that's your perogative, I just don't know why you'd bother engaging if you only care about official press releases and player or agent statements.

I'm not concerned at all about it, no, because there is plenty of leeway left to add more higher end players, albeit perhaps not ultra elite or generational, including the 13M in Cap rise to come in time for a generational player to get paid his due if we're lucky enough to land one.

I'm not comparing Suzuki, Dubois and Caufield to Matthews and Marner, but I wouldn't be embarrassed to compare Suzuki and Dubois to Tavares, whose two career seasons in the 80 points are not necessarily out of range ion Suzuki and Dubois on a talented, balanced team as I propose, where the quality of wingers isn't limited to 0.5 PPG complements.

Whether Dach or Dubois end up on the wing, they will be 60+ point producers for their Pivot and Caufield, if he stays healthy, is, IMO, a lock for multiple 40+ goals seasons.

Long range contracts need to consider projected progression in production. Other than being nifty alliteration, it is also reflects a reality. Obviously, if we are to freeze everything in time and assume that Suzuki and Dubois will never achieve more than we have seen so far, for two players who are only on the cusp of entering their prime years, or, if we assume that Caufield will never score more than 26 goals (in only 46 games, mind you, before his injury locked him down for the season), because that's the most he has produced so far, we aren't making hockey decisions based on tendencies or progression rates.

Too optimistic to think that Suzuki and Dubois will be better than 60-point producers on a balanced team with talented wingers?

I don't think so. I think the floor rises to at least 70 points, with a ceiling in the PPG range. IMO, that's easily two Tavares' for only 5M or so more than Tavares' cap hit.

On a line with Suzuki and Dach, for example, Caufield is conservatively trending to be a 70-point (40G-30A) producer, while Suzuki is trending to be a PPG pivot who could reach 30 Gs (30G, 50A).

It doesn't need to be Dach, but someone else that can achieve what Dach does in terms of carrying the puck into the O-zone and controlling it once there, with playmaking savvy to create scoring opportunities in conjunction with his the other two line mates.

If there is norther Dach, it simply can be Dach with Dubois in the lineup.

I guarantee you that a team with 6 players in the 7M to 8.5M range and the talent for that kind of salary/cap hit (of equal quality to Suzuki, Dubois and Caufield) will have less holes in its lineup than Toronto does.

I also guarantee you that it will be harder to shut down such an offense that doesn't rely simply on Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander, and their brethren on the top two lines, regardless of how good Toronto's best players are.

To me, the Montreal model I propose would be a better playoff model, especially with Cs who can also shutdown talented offensive players from other teams.

I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere but I don't see it

Danish (the viennoiserie/pastry) and why a low carb or no carb coach would not like it.

Pleasant in a way that Ottawa is - meaning boring AF. It’s also a franchise that’s only had one successful season and that was simply going to Round 2.

Yeah, but, to some, boring and peaceful is good. To others, not so much. That's the point.

 

[Adriatic]

Meeker on 690 sames don't get your hopes up.....

Lolol Meeker.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I'm not concerned at all about it, no, because there is plenty of leeway left to add more higher end players, albeit perhaps not ultra elite or generational, including the 13M in Cap rise to come in time for a generational player to get paid his due if we're lucky enough to land one.

I'm not comparing Suzuki, Dubois and Caufield to Matthews and Marner, but I wouldn't be embarrassed to compare Suzuki and Dubois to Tavares, whose two career seasons in the 80 points are not necessarily out of range ion Suzuki and Dubois on a talented, balanced team as I propose, where the quality of wingers isn't limited to 0.5 PPG complements.

Whether Dach or Dubois end up on the wing, they will be 60+ point producers for their Pivot and Caufield, if he stays healthy, is, IMO, a lock for multiple 40+ goals seasons.

Long range contracts need to consider projected progression in production. Other than being nifty alliteration, it is also reflects a reality. Obviously, if we are to freeze everything in time and assume that Suzuki and Dubois will never achieve more than we have seen so far, for two players who are only on the cusp of entering their prime years, or, if we assume that Caufield will never score more than 26 goals (in only 46 games, mind you, before his injury locked him down for the season), because that's the most he has produced so far, we aren't making hockey decisions based on tendencies or progression rates.

Too optimistic to think that Suzuki and Dubois will be better than 60-point producers on a balanced team with talented wingers?

I don't think so. I think the floor rises to at least 70 points, with a ceiling in the PPG range. IMO, that's easily two Tavares' for only 5M or so more than Tavares' cap hit.

On a line with Suzuki and Dach, for example, Caufield is conservatively trending to be a 70-point (40G-30A) producer, while Suzuki is trending to be a PPG pivot who could reach 30 Gs (30G, 50A).

It doesn't need to be Dach, but someone else that can achieve what Dach does in terms of carrying the puck into the O-zone and controlling it once there, with playmaking savvy to create scoring opportunities in conjunction with his the other two line mates.

If there is norther Dach, it simply can be Dach with Dubois in the lineup.

I guarantee you that a team with 6 players in the 7M to 8.5M range and the talent for that kind of salary/cap hit (of equal quality to Suzuki, Dubois and Caufield) will have less holes in its lineup than Toronto does.

I also guarantee you that it will be harder to shut down such an offense that doesn't rely simply on Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander, and their brethren on the top two lines, regardless of how good Toronto's best players are.

To me, the Montreal model I propose would be a better playoff model, especially with Cs who can also shutdown talented offensive players from other teams.


Danish (the viennoiserie/pastry) and why a low carb or no carb coach would not like it.


Yeah, but, to some, boring and peaceful is good. To others, not so much. That's the point.

The whole point of rebuilding is to build a contender and you need elite talent to contend. Its non-negotiable. If the goal is to be the Bergevin-era Habs or the the current Jets, why not just keep Bergevin around?

And just so we're clear, you believe that Tavares, who has been around a point per game player and, in his prime in a much lower scoring league (including his early Leafs tenure) was a top-20 forward in the NHL, who has finished top-10 in scoring in 2012 and 2015 (one point behind Benn for the Art Ross) and spent most of his Islanders tenure playing with scrubs, is comparable to two guys who are sitting on career highs of low 60s?

Your "model" requires ludicrous amounts of luck. You know who wins cups consistently? Teams with multiple guys who are among the best in the league at their position. Not a bunch of really decent guys. We just went through 15-20 years of focusing on depth and trying to exploit weak links on other teams. It. Doesn't. Work. Strong link teambuilding with guys who can dominate is what wins.

 

[Scriptor]

Anything over 7.5 million for Dubois is overpayment. Can't believe some habs fans are ok for paying a 60 points player 8,5-9 million per year.

You'd think, with recent signings of Horvat and others with similar production to Dubois, but older and with less upside remaining, that 8M, 8.5M would be the going rate for Dubois, but, as mentioned ad infinitum, Montreal is in a position to structure the contract so that Suzuki money is the equivalent in net return at the end of the contract's term and taking into account the fiscal/tax implications of such a structured deal.

I know, counting is a hard thing to do...

If you are steadfast that Dubois will never produce more than 60 points, even though he will be turning 25 on June 24th and, should normally only be on the cusp of entering his prime years, I don't know what to say -- that's one pretty opaque crystal ball you are wielding?

At this stage in his career, as was bizarrely done by Uncle Lou for Horvat who is 27, normally, a talented player with the profile PLD has would get projected into the future in terms of production and awarded a contract that could, perhaps, be a little overpayment in the short term, but become a savings over the when it mattered more and the team, now a contender, might be looking for some more depth to put them over the top.

Just a thought.

 

[Natey]

What ???

What?

 

[BLONG7]

Just finding out about the CBA issue, with offer sheets...............and how the Jets can't trade him if they match the offer sheet...............geez this swings the leverage to Hughes more than it already was.
The Jets and Habs will, be making a deal this summer folks, this situation pretty much tells us this..........

 

[Guy Larose]

f***in 50 pages about a player that’s not even on the team. Love this place.

and constantly repeating the same stuff about him...

 

[Habs Halifax]

Anything over 7.5 million for Dubois is overpayment. Can't believe some habs fans are ok for paying a 60 points player 8,5-9 million per year.

My number is 8x $7.75M - $8.5M range. Here is why.

Hintz:
* 8x $8.45M
* Career 0.78 pts/game over 305 games
* Age 26
* $12M of signing bonus structure
* One RFA year and 7 UFA years

Horvat:
* 8x $8.5M
* Career 0.67 pts/game over 645 games
* Age 27
* $0M of signing bonus structure
* 8 UFA years

Larkin:
* 8x $8.7M
* Career 0.74 pts/game over 576 games
* Age 26
* $0M of signing bonus structure
* 8 UFA years

Suzuki:
* 8x $7.875M
* Career 0.72 pts/game over 284 games
* Age 23
* $10M in signing bonus structure
* 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years

Dubois:
* 8x ???
* Career 0.69 pts/game over 428 games
* Age 24 (Age 25 when he starts his new contract)
* We can offer signing bonus money and NMC or NTC to try to get the AAV down.
* One RFA year and 7 UFA years

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

My number is 8x $7.75M - $8.5M range. Here is why.

Hintz:
* 8x $8.45M
* Career 0.78 pts/game over 305 games
* Age 26
* $12M of signing bonus structure
* One RFA year and 7 UFA years

Horvat:
* 8x $8.5M
* Career 0.67 pts/game over 645 games
* Age 27
* $0M of signing bonus structure
* 8 UFA years

Larkin:
* 8x $8.7M
* Career 0.74 pts/game over 576 games
* Age 26
* $0M of signing bonus structure
* 8 UFA years

Dubois:
* 8x ???
* Career 0.69 pts/game over 428 games
* Age 24
* We can offer signing bonus money and NMC or NTC to try to get the AAV down.
* One RFA year and 7 UFA years

That Horvat deal is so bad lol

 

[Habs Halifax]

That Horvat deal is so bad lol

Today maybe but not with a new growing cap. Top 2C like the ones I listed will be paid around $8M moving forward. Cap will be $90M+ very soon.

If you want to purchase UFA years, you will have to pay market prices. What I say is get them signed now (Caufield and Dubois) because once agents know what the real cap is for 24/25, you might have a problem with managing long term contracts and a growing cap. Agents are going to make GM's take fits. Subban did this to us back when and there was a increasing cap speculation then too.

Value contracts are usually ones that have a fair amount of RFA years and UFA years. You don't see too many value contracts with mainly UFA years purchased. Reality

 

[Scriptor]

I have 2 questions:

Jets have to give QO to Dubois to retain his RFA. Is the deadline to take him to arbitration before or after July 1st?

If a team like Colorado or Boston can offer sheet Dubois for 1 year/6.4m$ rental, compensation is 1st & 3rd. Isn't that devalue Dubois return for the Jets? Why would any team offer more then that to get Dubois for 1 year?

Offer sheets need to be signed. Who says Dubois would sign that from a team, unless he wants to go there?

It's all speculative to the Nth level and, in all honesty, I don't see a team screwing up their standing with other GMs to pull shit like that off.

 

[FerrisRox]

I also never claimed that Montreal is the only team he wants to play for, so not sure what you're on about there.

Try to follow the thread. I was responding to this, from Whitesnake: IF the rumor is indeed true that he solely and only wants to come here, and knowing that we will suck next year as well...why in the world would we give them anything of real value for him? Why????

Please show me where I claimed that the Habs are the only team he wants to play for.

And if you don't want to give any credence to established insiders or beat reporters from both markets then that's your perogative, I just don't know why you'd bother engaging if you only care about official press releases and player or agent statements.

You really are struggling with how these threads work. Whitesnake made the claim, I asked him where he was getting these rumours.

I have no clue why you are now talking about me not wanting to give credence to established insiders? Where are you getting that from? What is all this nonsense about official press releases?

In short, what are you talking about and why are you assigning these claims to me?

 

[Captain97]

I can't help but laugh at the idea that a Habs offer sheet for $6+M, which would give the Jets the Habs' *unprotected 2024 1st* is somehow a 'threat' to the Jets.

It's not a threat, it would be a *lifeline* for the Jets.

Imagine getting an unprotected lottery pick for a guy who doesn't want to be on your team! The Jets would be popping champagne!!

I agree but the offersheet idea is interesting for another team say Colorado who needs a 2c. They could go to Dubois ans say we know you want to be a UFA so here is a 1 year 6.4 contract let's try and win a cup then you can go home if you'd like.

So Dubois could say trade me home or I sign it and he can't be traded for anything.

 

[FerrisRox]

I agree but the offersheet idea is interesting for another team say Colorado who needs a 2c. They could go to Dubois ans say we know you want to be a UFA so here is a 1 year 6.4 contract let's try and win a cup then you can go home if you'd like.

So Dubois could say trade me home or I sign it and he can't be traded for anything.

Seems to me if the Colorado Avalanche have six and a half million in cap space to add a centre they could make a better choice then coughing up a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick to acquire a guy for just one year.

 

[ManixLiquid]

You'd think, with recent signings of Horvat and others with similar production to Dubois, but older and with less upside remaining, that 8M, 8.5M would be the going rate for Dubois, but, as mentioned ad infinitum, Montreal is in a position to structure the contract so that Suzuki money is the equivalent in net return at the end of the contract's term and taking into account the fiscal/tax implications of such a structured deal.

I know, counting is a hard thing to do...

If you are steadfast that Dubois will never produce more than 60 points, even though he will be turning 25 on June 24th and, should normally only be on the cusp of entering his prime years, I don't know what to say -- that's one pretty opaque crystal ball you are wielding?

At this stage in his career, as was bizarrely done by Uncle Lou for Horvat who is 27, normally, a talented player with the profile PLD has would get projected into the future in terms of production and awarded a contract that could, perhaps, be a little overpayment in the short term, but become a savings over the when it mattered more and the team, now a contender, might be looking for some more depth to put them over the top.

Just a thought.

Just because NYI is playing Horvat 8.5 million doesn't Habs mean have to follow route and start overpaying for players too.

You think Dubois could become an 80 or 90 points per season player? What do you think is upside will be to offer him 8.5 million or more? If that's what Habs management thinks He could be that kind of player, they should go ahead and get him.

My main issue is we still don't have an elite/franchise forward. Who knows if Caufield can become a 40-50 goals sniper or if Suzuki can be a top 10 center in the NHL. I'm just not a fan of Dubois and don't think the Habs should be betting on him and paying him 8,5-10 million per season.

 

[ReHabs]

Seems to me if the Colorado Avalanche have six and a half million in cap space to add a centre they could make a better choice then coughing up a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick to acquire a guy for just one year.

You've never heard of rentals? Really?

 

[Runner77]

Meeker on 690 sames don't get your hopes up.....

The only Meeker worth quoting was this guy. Golly jee!