This issue has been going on for months within the Islanders fan base with people on both sides of the track someone want to trade Dobson others don’t. I do agree that paying him 11 million AAV would be too much but I don’t think it will come in that. Here’s my thoughts and reasoning.
Dobsons Strengths
Dobber, a 25-year-old right-shot defenseman has established himself as one of the NHL's promising young blueliners. Originally drafted by the isles in the first round, he’s homegrown, making him a cornerstone of the Islanders’ defense:
- Elite Offensive Production Dobson is a dynamic offensive defenseman with exceptional skating, vision, and puck-handling skills. His ability to quarterback the power play is a standout trait, as evidenced by his 19 power-play points in the 2022-23 season and his role as the primary power-play quarterback for the Islanders. His 70-point season (10 goals, 60 assists) in 2023-24 demonstrates his elite scoring touch, placing him among the league’s top offensive defensemen.
- Skating and Mobility Dobson’s skating is a significant asset, described as one of the best among NHL defensemen. His ability to transition the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone with speed and precision allows him to lead rushes and create scoring opportunities. His mobility was a hallmark of his junior career and has translated effectively to the NHL.
- Hockey Sense and Vision Dobson possesses excellent hockey sense, enabling him to make smart decisions under pressure. His vision on the ice allows him to find open teammates and set up plays, particularly on the power play, where his passing is precise and effective. he also has a great ability to get shots through and on net at different angles and speeds.
- Two-Way Potential While primarily known for his offensive prowess, Dobson has shown improvement in his defensive game. The eye test at times was a bit rough this year, but there was also underlying circumstances like injuries and team struggles. In 2023-24, he logged significant minutes (averaging 24:31 per game) and demonstrated reliability in all situations, including penalty-killing duties. His 180 blocked shots and 84 hits in the 2023-24 season highlight his growing defensive commitment, though he still has room to refine his defensive-zone play to reduce turnovers.
- Youth and Prime Years At 25, Dobson is just entering his prime, with his best years likely ahead. His combination of youth, right-shot handedness, and offensive production makes him a rare asset in the NHL.
- Durability and Workload Dobson has proven capable of handling a heavy workload, playing nearly 25 minutes per night during his breakout 2023-24 season. His ability to log big minutes in all situations makes him a critical piece of the Islanders’ defensive core.
Rarity of a 70-Point Season for a Defenseman at Age 24
A 70-point season for a defenseman is exceptionally rare, especially for someone as young as Dobson was during the 2023-24 season (age 24). To put this in perspective:
- Dobson became the first Islanders defenseman since Denis Potvin (1983-84) to record a 70-point season, a feat achieved in 79 games (10 goals, 60 assists). Potvin, a Hall of Famer, is one of the greatest defensemen in NHL history, showing the elite company Dobson joins. We haven’t had a defenseman like this since Potvin. Now with Dobson and potentially drafting Schaefer, we can have two elite defenseman, that’s extremely rare to have on a team.
- Age Rarity Since the 2000-01 season, only a handful of defensemen aged 24 or younger have reached 70 points in a single NHL season. Notable examples include:
- **Erik Karlsson** (2011-12, age 21): 78 points
- **Cale Makar** (2021-22, age 23): 86 points
- **Quinn Hughes** (2022-23, age 23): 76 points
- **Rasmus Dahlin** (2022-23, age 22): 73 points
Dobson’s 70 points at age 24 place him among this elite group, with only 7 defensemen aged 24 or younger reaching this mark in the last 25 years (based on NHL data). This rarity highlights his exceptional offensive talent, as fewer than 1% of NHL defensemen achieve this production level at such a young age.
- Right-Shot Scarcity Right-shot defensemen with Dobson’s offensive capabilities are particularly rare. The NHL values right-shot defensemen highly, and those capable of producing 70 points while playing top-pairing minutes are even scarcer, making Dobson a unique asset.
Argument and Benefits for Signing Dobson Long-Term
Signing Noah Dobson to a long-term extension is the best course of action for the New York Islanders due to his unique skill set, youth, and potential to anchor their defense for the next decade. Here’s why…
1. Cornerstone Defenseman At 25, Dobson is a proven top-pairing defenseman with elite offensive skills and improving defensive play. His 70-point season in 2023-24, combined with his ability to log big minutes, makes him a cornerstone player who can lead the Islanders’ blue line. Trading him would leave a massive hole that is nearly impossible to fill, as 6’4 right-shot defensemen with his skill set “do not grow on trees.”
2. Prime Years Ahead Dobson is just entering his prime, and his 2023-24 season suggests he could consistently produce 50-60 points, with the potential for more 70-point campaigns. Locking him up long-term (an 8-year deal) ensures the Islanders retain a player who could be a Norris Trophy contender in his peak years. A bridge deal might save cap space short-term but risks a higher cap hit later when the salary cap rises and Dobson’s value increases.
3. Cost Certainty The salary cap is projected to rise significantly in coming years, making a long-term deal at $8.5 -$9.5 million annually a potentially team-friendly contract if Dobson maintains or exceeds his current production. AFP Analytics projected an 8-year deal with a cap hit of over $10 million, but a 6-8 year deal at $9-9.5 million could be more palatable and secure his services through his prime.
4. Leadership and Stability Dobson’s presence provides stability to a defensive core that includes veterans like Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, as well as younger players like Alexander Romanov. His chemistry with Pelech, in particular, produced elite on-ice results (71.2% expected goals percentage), suggesting he can elevate his partners. Keeping Dobson ensures a strong defensive foundation as the Islanders integrate prospects like Matthew Schaefer. Dobson is also a two-time memorial cup champion while being a captain and leader in the QMJHL.
5. Fan and Team Identity Dobson is a homegrown talent who has developed into a star for the Islanders. Obviously winning is all that matters and if you can trade for good players, it doesn’t matter if you drafted them or not. However, when you have homegrown talent, there is an extra pulse. It brings and pride for the fan base. GM Mathieu Darche has publicly emphasized Dobson’s value, indicating a commitment to building around him.
6. Recently history Trading Dobson for picks or prospects, as seen in past Islanders trades like Devon Toews, often brings diminishing returns. Toews was traded due to cap constraints, and the Islanders regretted it, as he became a key piece for Colorado and an elite defensman in the NHL and for team Canada. Dobson’s value as a proven NHL star outweighs the uncertainty of future assets.
Argument for Trading Noah Dobson
While keeping Dobson long-term is preferable, there are scenarios where trading him could benefit the Islanders, particularly if they prioritize addressing other roster needs:
1. Addressing Offensive Needs The Islanders’ offense has been a weak point, and trading Dobson could net an elite forward to transform their forward group. Names like Jason Robertson or Jordan Kyrou have been floated as potential trade targets, offering immediate scoring punch and long-term offensive stability. Such a trade could address the Islanders’ need for a game-breaking forward to complement Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal.
2. Cap Flexibility Dobson’s next contract could carry a cap hit of $9-$10 million annually, a significant portion of the Islanders’ cap space. Trading him before his RFA status expires could free up cap room to sign multiple players or address other needs, such as retaining Alexander Romanov or signing a top-six forward. With veterans like Scott Mayfield and Ryan Pulock carrying no-trade clauses, Dobson is one of the few movable high-value assets.
3. Leveraging Market Value -asset management, Despite a down 2024-25 season (39 points in 68 games), Dobson’s 70-point campaign and youth make him a highly valuable trade chip. A seller’s market, as noted in recent reports, could allow the Islanders to demand a blockbuster return, including a top forward, prospects, and draft picks. This could accelerate a retool around younger players like Matthew Schaefer Cole Eiserman and Ritchie.
4. Defensive Depth The Islanders have options on defense, including Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Alexander Romanov, with prospects like Isaiah George and potentially Matthew Schaefer in the pipeline. Trading Dobson could allow them to redistribute minutes and cap space while relying on players like Adam Boqvist or Tony DeAngelo, who have shown offensive flashes in limited roles.
5. Risk management Dobson’s 2024-25 season was marred by injury and a dip in production (39 points), raising questions about whether he’s a consistent 70-point player or closer to a 40-50-point defenseman. Trading him at peak value avoids the risk of overpaying for a long-term deal if he doesn’t return to his 2023-24 form. A bridge deal could mitigate this risk, but trading him now could capitalize on his perceived value
Benefits of Dobson Supporting Matthew Schaefer
Drafting Matthew Schaefer with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft introduces a high-upside defenseman to the Islanders’ system. Schaefer, a 6’2, 183-pound dman, is praised for his elite skating and two-way potential but may not be NHL-ready immediately due to his age (17), frame, and a recent collarbone injury. Dobson’s presence on the roster provides significant benefits in alleviating pressure on Schaefer. Schaefer doesn’t have to be the savior or the man right away. he can develop at his own pace and get comfortable.
1. Mentorship and Development Dobson, as a former high draft pick (12th overall) who transitioned from junior to the NHL, can serve as a mentor for Schaefer. His experience navigating the pressures of being a top prospect and developing into a top-pairing defenseman can guide Schaefer, who faces immense expectations as a potential No. 1 pick. Dobson’s leadership on and off the ice can help Schaefer adjust to the NHL’s demands. Dobson was a star defenseman in Junior and for team Canada so that would be good for Schaeffer to have around him. Dobber knows exactly what Schaefer has been through.
2. Reduced Pressure With Dobson as the established No. 1 defenseman, Schaefer can develop without the immediate burden of carrying the blue line. Dobson’s ability to log big minutes (24-25 per game) and quarterback the power play allows Schaefer to ease into a third-pairing or second-pairing role, potentially alongside a veteran like Pulock or Mayfield,who complements offensive defensemen. This gradual integration mirrors Dobson’s own development path, where he wasn’t rushed into a top role as a rookie. I made a post earlier that if Schaeffer doesn’t go back to juniors, maybe giving him 40 to 50 games practicing with the NHL team in between to get his feet wet. However, I do personally believe because extremely young age and time is from injury he should take another year.
3. Complementary Skill Sets Schaefer’s skating and two-way game align well with Dobson’s offensive style. If paired together in the future, they could form a dynamic top pairing, with Dobson’s playmaking complementing Schaefer’s defensive instincts. Keeping Dobson ensures the Islanders have a proven star to anchor the defense while Schaefer matures, potentially creating one of the NHL’s best defensive cores.
4. Team Stability The Islanders’ defensive core, including Dobson, Pelech, and Pulock, and Romanov provides a stable foundation for Schaefer to join. Dobson’s presence ensures the team remains competitive while Schaefer develops in the OHL, NCAA, or eventually the AHL avoiding the need to rush him to the NHL before he’s ready. This stability is critical given Schaefer’s limited experience (25 games last season) and injury concerns.
5. Long-Term Vision Retaining Dobson aligns with the Islanders’ goal of building a contending team around young talent like Schaefer, Calum Ritchie, and Cole Eiserman. Dobson’s experience and production can bridge the gap between the current core and the next generation, ensuring the Islanders remain playoff contenders while integrating prospects.
And finally
Sign Dobson Long-Term The case for keeping Noah Dobson outweighs the benefits of trading him. His rare combination of youth, right-shot handedness, and elite offensive production (highlighted by his 70-point season at age 24) makes him a cornerstone player who is nearly impossible to replace. His presence stabilizes the Islanders’ defense, mentors prospects like Matthew Schaefer, and ensures competitiveness during a retool. While trading Dobson could yield an elite forward or cap relief, the risk of losing a top-tier defenseman entering his prime far outweighs the potential return, especially given past lessons like the Devon Toews trade. A long-term extension at $9-$9.5 million annually secures a franchise defenseman and supports Schaefer’s development by alleviating pressure, making it the smarter long-term strategy.