Brookbank
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- Nov 15, 2022
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The ratio has been the similar since the White house was burned down.
Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?
- Thread starter Brookbank
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Coaches Coroner
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The window might be closed if the the US continues on the path to supporting Russia in this conflict; if the IIHF decides to equally enforce sanctions/bans on countries like Belarus that support Russia.
Peiskos
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- Jan 4, 2018
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I think most would agree that the US currently has its best collection of talent in a long while, yet the core group of Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin etc still has nothing to show for it in the trophy case, so while I don't exactly know about the window per se, what I do know is that the pressure is certainly on for them to finally win something of relevance before this generation of players retires. Canada's current crop has already gotten the job done at various tournaments at the mens level.
ORRFForever
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A year or 2 ago, an American poster (@WarriorofTime ?) started a thread called "Did The U.S. Miss Its Chance?" - or something like that. In the thread, the poster lamented that America's best players are getting older and they had not represent their country BoB. It was a terrific thread and a real concern from a U.S. point of view.
Matthew Tkackuk was on Jimmy Kimmel last night and he mentioned he's been in the league 9 years and this was his FIRST Best On Best - the 9 caught me by surprise! As Canadians, we should count our blessings that Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin did not get MORE kicks at the can because, compared to the players we produced from 2016-2019 drafts, the U.S. could already have a few Golds under their belt.
The U.S. will win in 2026 - the Olympics being the 30th anniversary of their 1996 win. Canadians have a year to prepare themselves for that pain.
2028 will be very competitive and could go either way.
Once 2030 comes, as Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin age out and Canada's NEXT Generation comes into its own, I like our chances of going on a long run of Golds.
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Oilslick941611
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its a distinction without a difference.
Point is Canada had 3 extremely talented and extremely eligible player not on the roster because they were playing for the NHL. That speaks to Canadian development and how great it is that we developed such great players that ultimately get left off the team and end up hurting Canada in the WJHC.
You can't act like they dont exist ( or any player thats of age for the tournament on any team thats playing in the NHL) It was a factor for Canada losing this past tournament, on top of very poor roster choices and taking grinders over skill. Hockey Canada 100% needs to reconsider how it approaches tournaments ( they did the same f***ing thing with the 4 nation tournament) and 100% Hockey canada deserved the results it got in December.
WarriorofTime
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Bedard and Celebrini already played in the world juniors. They're counted in aggregate results. Bedard is arguably the biggest reason Canada won in 2023.
Beside the point, it's the world junior championship, not the age birth year championship (or else it'd be restricted to only the oldest year as is). Celebrini played mostly in the U.S. anyways.
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Mathieukferland
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It wasn’t as egregious, the 4 nations equivalent of what luminaries Peter Anholt and Dave Cameron pulled off in December with the WJC team would have been the equivalent of leaving off MacKinnon, Makar, and Marner off the 4 nations team. I honestly would have cleared out and sacked every person involved with the youth teams after that 12 month prolonged disaster, Salmond chief among them.
That being said, the Cirelli/Hagel pairing was a bit of a black hole offensively, and outside of Bennett I don’t think any of the “role” players had particularly good offensive tournaments. I think there were a lot of “safe” picks, and as a result you had several guys who looked like the game has passed them by, like Marchand and Stone, and some who didn’t look like that could play at that level, like Jarvis and Cirelli.
You need guys who can PK and play situations still, but I’d much rather see guys with a higher pace and skill like Johnston, Celebrini, Scheifele, and Wilson draw in over the names I mentioned above. Skating ability and skill need to be prioritised
Peiskos
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I'm really not so sure there are any solid indicators of this happening, the US isn't projected to be any better than they were for the 4 Nations, and its not like Canada is projected to decline in any way for next February. US will be a threat sure but I'm not prepared to say they're winning in 2026. Canada will be favourites going into Milan 2026, and the track record of success at the last 2 straight NHL olympics (2010, 2014) would make them the betting favourites as well.
ORRFForever
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It's the law of averages. The U.S. is due. Add the fact that it is an amazing team, they will be looking for revenge and it's the 30 anniversary of the U.S. win and...
The U.S. will win in 2026.
WarriorofTime
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I don't recall making that thread? Was it about the absence of best on best hockey in about a decade long span?
ORRFForever
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Maybe it wasn't you. I am too lazy to go back and see.
LOL. I HOPE I am wrong but I don't think I am. (smile)
novisor
Registered User
The US can definitely win next year, just want to state that off the hop. Before the final last week I was listening to Overdrive and Hayes made an interesting point about how the Americans have always "been coming" or "right there" since 1996. We heard it again in 2002, and again in 2010. Heck, even in 2014. Right now is no different. Until they win a best on best, nothing changes.
As for the window the US has ebbed and flowed. Canada went through a period of drafts from 2016-2019 where we didn't have a first overall pick, a bona-fide star drafted and the overall number of picks sagged. The US went through a hot period recently with up and comers like Smith, Perrault, Leonard, C. Hutson, and now Hagens but future drafts and recent drafts have looked stronger for Canada overall. I also don't think Perrault, Leonard, Hagens, etc. are going to be on par with the Tkatchuks, Hughes, Matthews, etc. So I think while the US will always contend for gold, after these next Olympics it could be a downward trend (not saying this is forever).
The problem for the US is that while they may be basically on par with Canada when it comes to depth, the star power is clearly in Canada's favour. They do not have a McDavid, a Mackinnon, a Crosby, or a Makar (well... maybe give them that one with Q. Hughes) - but the point remains. With Bedard, Celebrini, Dupoint, and Mckenna coming, I like Canada's trejectory a lot better for 2030 than I do the US.
Just my two cents. Now let's fire up the damn goaltending factory in Quebec again and get some competent management for our World Junior program.
As for the window the US has ebbed and flowed. Canada went through a period of drafts from 2016-2019 where we didn't have a first overall pick, a bona-fide star drafted and the overall number of picks sagged. The US went through a hot period recently with up and comers like Smith, Perrault, Leonard, C. Hutson, and now Hagens but future drafts and recent drafts have looked stronger for Canada overall. I also don't think Perrault, Leonard, Hagens, etc. are going to be on par with the Tkatchuks, Hughes, Matthews, etc. So I think while the US will always contend for gold, after these next Olympics it could be a downward trend (not saying this is forever).
The problem for the US is that while they may be basically on par with Canada when it comes to depth, the star power is clearly in Canada's favour. They do not have a McDavid, a Mackinnon, a Crosby, or a Makar (well... maybe give them that one with Q. Hughes) - but the point remains. With Bedard, Celebrini, Dupoint, and Mckenna coming, I like Canada's trejectory a lot better for 2030 than I do the US.
Just my two cents. Now let's fire up the damn goaltending factory in Quebec again and get some competent management for our World Junior program.
The past doesn't predict the future. Just cause something hasn't happened yet or in a long period of time, does not mean it is bound to happen. This is the gamblers fallacy. With that said, the US can absolutely win next year. So can Russia or Sweden or Finland.
ORRFForever
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1989
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Is this you venting your anti-Marner rhetoric by condemning the national team he represents?
ORRFForever
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1989
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ORRFForever
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I did promise and I did stop - I will never bad mouth Marner, again.
Czechboy
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I still say US has no window. Perennial contender for next decade at very least. More likely to take over than drop off.
But, at some point, they have to actually win something.lol
But, at some point, they have to actually win something.lol
Lumber
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Not only that, the Canadian draft content from 2016-2019 was exceedingly poor. Those poor drafts have certainly thinned the ranks of a present day top Canadian team while the Americans during that time produced a large number of great talents who are in or entering their prime. The NHL draft is a much better indicator of talent than the WJC because Canada consistently loses its best players to the NHL the USA not so much. The past WJC was a Canadian gong show as a very poor team was selected from the first round talent available. Made even worse because Bedard, Benson and Celebrini were in the NHL, the year before that Bedard, Benson, Fantilli and Korchinski were unavailable and additional two others were lost just as the tournament started. In any event Canadian drafts have been must stronger relatively speaking from 2020 on. This will begin to show up at a higher level soon.
ORRFForever
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^^ Exactly.^^
Think of it this way...
If any other country was producing 3 times the first round picks of Canada for 7 years (2020-2026), every NON Canadian poster on this site would be screaming, "Canadian Hockey is DEAD!!!!" But when Canada produces 3 x the high end prospects, it gets dismissed.
It's impossible for Canada not to produce an uber elite(!) team with those kind of numbers.
Theres a good chance none of those guys never make an impact. And its not a great group overall. Especially to what Canadas got in the last 3 drafts.
Wright, Bedard, Fantilli, Celebrini, Sennecke, Lindstrom, Iginla, Yakemchuk, Catton, Parekh, Dickinson
Along with 27 other first rounders + Schaefer, Martone and Misa (3/4) projected top 4 picks. Desnoyers, McQueen, O'Brein, Smith (proj top 10 picks), Along with 13 other projected first rounders. According to Bob Mckenzie 20/32 FRP are Canadians.
Plus Dupont and McKenna two of the best propescts we've ever seen. USA is lightyears behind Canada in 2005 born and beyond
USA does well in those tournaments when they're comprised of guys who are arent going to be anything special for the most part. I think we all know how a real u20 tournament would have went with Bedard, Celebrini and Benson playing
ORRFForever
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Of course.
The O.P. meant the U.S.'s window to be on the same level as Canada, like they were at the 4NC, is small.
In 2030, many of us, including the OP, expect Canada to jump ahead.
ORRFForever
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If the U.S. was producing the players Canada has been cranking off since 2020 PLUS 3 x the number of 1st Round picks as Canada, posters would be saying US Hockey is KING and Canadian Hockey is DEAD.
U.S. Hockey is not dead, of course, but credit needs to be given to Canada - we have really outdone ourselves since 2020 with both quality and quantity. It will last a minimum of 7 years - 2020 to 2026. That's a LONG time and will pay dividends for most of the 2030's.
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