Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?

[Brookbank]

The U.S. has 10x the population of Canada and U.S. youth hockey participation is growing while it is shrinking in Canada.

The ratio has been the similar since the White house was burned down.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

The window might be closed if the the US continues on the path to supporting Russia in this conflict; if the IIHF decides to equally enforce sanctions/bans on countries like Belarus that support Russia.

 

[Peiskos]

I think most would agree that the US currently has its best collection of talent in a long while, yet the core group of Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin etc still has nothing to show for it in the trophy case, so while I don't exactly know about the window per se, what I do know is that the pressure is certainly on for them to finally win something of relevance before this generation of players retires. Canada's current crop has already gotten the job done at various tournaments at the mens level.

 

[ORRFForever]

I think most would agree that the US currently has its best collection of talent in a long while, yet the core group of Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin etc still has nothing to show for it in the trophy case, so while I don't exactly know about the window per se, what I do know is that the pressure is certainly on for them to finally win something of relevance before this generation of players retires. Canada's current crop has already gotten the job done at various tournaments at the mens level.

A year or 2 ago, an American poster (@WarriorofTime ?) started a thread called "Did The U.S. Miss Its Chance?" - or something like that. In the thread, the poster lamented that America's best players are getting older and they had not represent their country BoB. It was a terrific thread and a real concern from a U.S. point of view.

Matthew Tkackuk was on Jimmy Kimmel last night and he mentioned he's been in the league 9 years and this was his FIRST Best On Best - the 9 caught me by surprise! As Canadians, we should count our blessings that Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin did not get MORE kicks at the can because, compared to the players we produced from 2016-2019 drafts, the U.S. could already have a few Golds under their belt.

The U.S. will win in 2026 - the Olympics being the 30th anniversary of their 1996 win. Canadians have a year to prepare themselves for that pain.

2028 will be very competitive and could go either way.

Once 2030 comes, as Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin age out and Canada's NEXT Generation comes into its own, I like our chances of going on a long run of Golds.

 

[Oilslick941611]

Basically if they aren’t getting ice time and barely clinging to a roster spot. Not if they’re established contributors

its a distinction without a difference.

Point is Canada had 3 extremely talented and extremely eligible player not on the roster because they were playing for the NHL. That speaks to Canadian development and how great it is that we developed such great players that ultimately get left off the team and end up hurting Canada in the WJHC.

You can't act like they dont exist ( or any player thats of age for the tournament on any team thats playing in the NHL) It was a factor for Canada losing this past tournament, on top of very poor roster choices and taking grinders over skill. Hockey Canada 100% needs to reconsider how it approaches tournaments ( they did the same f***ing thing with the 4 nation tournament) and 100% Hockey canada deserved the results it got in December.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Point is Canada had 3 extremely talented and extremely eligible player not on the roster

Bedard and Celebrini already played in the world juniors. They're counted in aggregate results. Bedard is arguably the biggest reason Canada won in 2023.

That speaks to Canadian development and how great it is that we developed such great players

Beside the point, it's the world junior championship, not the age birth year championship (or else it'd be restricted to only the oldest year as is). Celebrini played mostly in the U.S. anyways.

 

[Mathieukferland]

they did the same f***ing thing with the 4 nation tournament

It wasn’t as egregious, the 4 nations equivalent of what luminaries Peter Anholt and Dave Cameron pulled off in December with the WJC team would have been the equivalent of leaving off MacKinnon, Makar, and Marner off the 4 nations team. I honestly would have cleared out and sacked every person involved with the youth teams after that 12 month prolonged disaster, Salmond chief among them.

That being said, the Cirelli/Hagel pairing was a bit of a black hole offensively, and outside of Bennett I don’t think any of the “role” players had particularly good offensive tournaments. I think there were a lot of “safe” picks, and as a result you had several guys who looked like the game has passed them by, like Marchand and Stone, and some who didn’t look like that could play at that level, like Jarvis and Cirelli.

You need guys who can PK and play situations still, but I’d much rather see guys with a higher pace and skill like Johnston, Celebrini, Scheifele, and Wilson draw in over the names I mentioned above. Skating ability and skill need to be prioritised

 

[Peiskos]

A year or 2 ago, an American poster (@WarriorofTime ?) started a thread called "Did The U.S. Miss Its Chance?" - or something like that. In the thread, the poster lamented that America's best players are getting older and they had not represent their country BoB. It was a terrific thread and a real concern from a U.S. point of view.

Matthew Tkackuk was on Jimmy Kimmel last night and he mentioned he's been in the league 9 years and this was his FIRST Best On Best - the 9 caught me by surprise! As Canadians, we should count our blessings that Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin did not get MORE kicks at the can because, compared to the players we produced from 2016-2019 drafts, the U.S. could already have a few Golds under their belt.

The U.S. will win in 2026 - the Olympics being the 30th anniversary of their 1996 win. Canadians have a year to prepare themselves for that pain.

2028 will be very competitive and could go either way.

Once 2030 comes, as Matthews/Eichel/Tkachuk/Larkin/Slavin age out and Canada's NEXT Generation comes into its own, I like our chances of going on a long run of Golds.

I'm really not so sure there are any solid indicators of this happening, the US isn't projected to be any better than they were for the 4 Nations, and its not like Canada is projected to decline in any way for next February. US will be a threat sure but I'm not prepared to say they're winning in 2026. Canada will be favourites going into Milan 2026, and the track record of success at the last 2 straight NHL olympics (2010, 2014) would make them the betting favourites as well.

 

[ORRFForever]

I'm really not so sure there are any solid indicators of this happening, the US isn't projected to be any better than they were for the 4 Nations, and its not like Canada is projected to decline in any way for next February. US will be a threat sure but I'm not prepared to say they're winning in 2026. Canada will be favourites going into Milan 2026, and the track record of success would make them the betting favourites as well.

It's the law of averages. The U.S. is due. Add the fact that it is an amazing team, they will be looking for revenge and it's the 30 anniversary of the U.S. win and...

The U.S. will win in 2026.

 

[WarriorofTime]

A year or 2 ago, an American poster (@WarriorofTime ?) started a thread called "Did The U.S. Miss Its Chance?" - or something like that. In the thread, the poster lamented that America's best players are getting older and they had not represent their country BoB. It was a terrific thread and a real concern from a U.S. point of view.

I don't recall making that thread? Was it about the absence of best on best hockey in about a decade long span?

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

It's the law of averages. The U.S. is due. Add the fact that it is an amazing team, they will be looking for revenge and it's the 30 anniversary of the U.S. win and...

The U.S. will win in 2026.

 

[ORRFForever]

I don't recall making that thread? Was it about the absence of best on best hockey in about a decade long span?

Maybe it wasn't you. I am too lazy to go back and see.

View attachment 982738

LOL. I HOPE I am wrong but I don't think I am. (smile)

 

[novisor]

The US can definitely win next year, just want to state that off the hop. Before the final last week I was listening to Overdrive and Hayes made an interesting point about how the Americans have always "been coming" or "right there" since 1996. We heard it again in 2002, and again in 2010. Heck, even in 2014. Right now is no different. Until they win a best on best, nothing changes.

As for the window the US has ebbed and flowed. Canada went through a period of drafts from 2016-2019 where we didn't have a first overall pick, a bona-fide star drafted and the overall number of picks sagged. The US went through a hot period recently with up and comers like Smith, Perrault, Leonard, C. Hutson, and now Hagens but future drafts and recent drafts have looked stronger for Canada overall. I also don't think Perrault, Leonard, Hagens, etc. are going to be on par with the Tkatchuks, Hughes, Matthews, etc. So I think while the US will always contend for gold, after these next Olympics it could be a downward trend (not saying this is forever).

The problem for the US is that while they may be basically on par with Canada when it comes to depth, the star power is clearly in Canada's favour. They do not have a McDavid, a Mackinnon, a Crosby, or a Makar (well... maybe give them that one with Q. Hughes) - but the point remains. With Bedard, Celebrini, Dupoint, and Mckenna coming, I like Canada's trejectory a lot better for 2030 than I do the US.

Just my two cents. Now let's fire up the damn goaltending factory in Quebec again and get some competent management for our World Junior program.

It's the law of averages. The U.S. is due. Add the fact that it is an amazing team, they will be looking for revenge and it's the 30 anniversary of the U.S. win and...

The U.S. will win in 2026.

The past doesn't predict the future. Just cause something hasn't happened yet or in a long period of time, does not mean it is bound to happen. This is the gamblers fallacy. With that said, the US can absolutely win next year. So can Russia or Sweden or Finland.

 

[ORRFForever]

The US can definitely win next year, just want to state that off the hop. Before the final last week I was listening to Overdrive and Hayes made an interesting point about how the Americans have always "been coming" or "right there" since 1996. We heard it again in 2002, and again in 2010. Heck, even in 2014. Right now is no different. Until they win a best on best, nothing changes.

As for the window the US has ebbed and flowed. Canada went through a period of drafts from 2016-2019 where we didn't have a first overall pick, a bona-fide star drafted and the overall number of picks sagged. The US went through a hot period recently with up and comers like Smith, Perrault, Leonard, C. Hutson, and now Hagens but future drafts and recent drafts have looked stronger for Canada overall. I also don't think Perrault, Leonard, Hagens, etc. are going to be on par with the Tkatchuks, Hughes, Matthews, etc. So I think while the US will always contend for gold, after these next Olympics it could be a downward trend (not saying this is forever).

The problem for the US is that while they may be basically on par with Canada when it comes to depth, the star power is clearly in Canada's favour. They do not have a McDavid, a Mackinnon, a Crosby, or a Makar (well... maybe give them that one with Q. Hughes) - but the point remains. With Bedard, Celebrini, Dupoint, and Mckenna coming, I like Canada's trejectory a lot better for 2030 than I do the US.

Just my two cents. Now let's fire up the damn goaltending factory in Quebec again and get some competent management for our World Junior program.


The past doesn't predict the future. Just cause something hasn't happened yet or in a long period of time, does not mean it is bound to happen. This is the gamblers fallacy. With that said, the US can absolutely win next year. So can Russia or Sweden or Finland.

I hope I'm wrong and Canada wins.