Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?

[Dr Jan Itor]

Stealing this from an American poster @ismelofhockey...

2020 Draft:
USA: Faber, Sanderson, Laferriere
CAN: Lafrenière, Byfield, Jarvis, Guhle, Holloway, Quinn, Perfetti, Drysdale, Mercer, Cuylle, Schneider, Lapierre, Greig

2021 Draft:
USA: Beniers, L.Hughes, Knies
CAN: Power, Johnston, McTavish, Guenther, Stankoven, Clarke, Sillinger, Johnson

2022 Draft:
USA: Hutson, Cooley, Gauthier, Nazar
CAN: Wright, Korchinski, Mateychuk, Poitras, Geekie

2023 Draft:
USA: Smith, Leonard, Augustine
CAN: Bedard, Fantilli, Benson, Danielson, Ritchie

2024 Draft:
USA: Buium
CAN: Celebrini, Sennecke, Lindstrom, Iginla, Yakemchuk, Catton, Parekh, Dickinson, Luchanko

And 2025 + 2026 are STACKED with Canadian talent.

If the rolls were reversed, American posters would be saying Canadian Hockey is DOOMED.

You can make those same lists going back probably to the mid-2000's (with maybe the exception of 2019) and they'll all look pretty similar, and yet we're still here somehow.

 

[ORRFForever]

You can make those same lists going back probably to the mid-2000's (with maybe the exception of 2019) and they'll all look pretty similar, and yet we're still here somehow.

That's NOT true, Dr.

Canada's drafts from 2016 - 2019 are some of the worst I've ever seen while the U.S. drafts from 2015 - 2019 are some of the best I've ever seen.

 

[Bradely]

The rise of NA soccer is a non-issue, because it's taking up as much space in US sports as it does in Canada if not more.

People keep stating "10x pOPuLaTIon", but don't seem to 1-include the higher rate of inequality, meaning there's more access per capita in Canada 2-include the fact a huge chunk of the US population are black or spanish, which aren't your typical hockey-going folks 3-have other sports that take up much more space than in Canada (football, basketball, baseball and others).

Fair pint all over. Can respond correctly. Would need to do the recherche and establish factuel date. But your point is valid and interesting.

IMO though, for the same %, the numbers will always favour USA over Canada.

 

[featherhawk]

Canada will have a minimum of 7 drafts (2020-2026) where they produced 3x the number of first round picks as the U.S. with a higher ceiling across the board. If you can't see that as a huge advantage for the foreseeable future, then I don't know what to say.

Think long term, Hockey will catch on in big ways moving forward in the USA with a massive population base...

I never said Canada was not part of the leading pack, in fact I did state that Canada and the USA are the top feeders to the NHL at this point and that will continue...

Canada will still continue to produce great hockey players but eventually the USA will catch up...

Last time I checked there were more people living in California than the whole of Canada...

 

[wickedwitch]

Stealing this from an American poster @ismelofhockey...

2020 Draft:
USA: Faber, Sanderson, Laferriere
CAN: Lafrenière, Byfield, Jarvis, Guhle, Holloway, Quinn, Perfetti, Drysdale, Mercer, Cuylle, Schneider, Lapierre, Greig

2021 Draft:
USA: Beniers, L.Hughes, Knies
CAN: Power, Johnston, McTavish, Guenther, Stankoven, Clarke, Sillinger, Johnson

2022 Draft:
USA: Hutson, Cooley, Gauthier, Nazar
CAN: Wright, Korchinski, Mateychuk, Poitras, Geekie

2023 Draft:
USA: Smith, Leonard, Augustine
CAN: Bedard, Fantilli, Benson, Danielson, Ritchie

2024 Draft:
USA: Buium
CAN: Celebrini, Sennecke, Lindstrom, Iginla, Yakemchuk, Catton, Parekh, Dickinson, Luchanko

And 2025 + 2026 are STACKED with Canadian talent.

If the rolls were reversed, American posters would be saying Canadian Hockey is DOOMED.

Are the first three (2020-2022) supposed to be seen as wins for Canada? Because while there's certainly more Canadians, the American talent is higher end, IMO.

The other drafts are too recent and TBD. (Also missing some Americans....)

 

[ORRFForever]

Think long term, Hockey will catch on in big ways moving forward in the USA with a massive population base...

I never said Canada was not part of the leading pack, in fact I did state that Canada and the USA are the top feeders to the NHL at this point and that will continue...

Canada will still continue to produce great hockey players but eventually the USA will catch up...

Last time I checked there were more people living in California than the whole of Canada...

The U.S. has more young boys playing soccer than almost any other country in the world. How has that turned out?

Are the first three (2020-2022) supposed to be seen as wins for Canada? Because while there's certainly more Canadians, the American talent is higher end, IMO.

The other drafts are too recent and TBD. (Also missing some Americans....)

I don't think so. LOL.

People will see what they want to see - myself included, but if someone is being completely objective, there's NO way to deny the high end talent (both quality and quantity) Canada has produced since 2020.

 

[featherhawk]

The U.S. has more young boys playing soccer than almost any other country in the world. How has that turned out?

have no idea, don't follow soccer

 

[ORRFForever]

have no idea, don't follow soccer

People have said the same thing about soccer since the 1970's - the number of young U.S. players will produce the best male soccer players in the world. I hasn't happened - nor will it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

That's NOT true, Dr.

Canada's drafts from 2016 - 2019 are some of the worst I've ever seen while the U.S. drafts from 2015 - 2019 are some of the best I've ever seen.

As we look back now, which might be a lesson while looking at a lot those ~2022 and on names.

Also, there are some US names missing, considering some of the Canadian ones on there.

 

[ORRFForever]

As we look back now, which might be a lesson while looking at a lot those ~2022 and on names.

Also, there are some US names missing, considering some of the Canadian ones on there.

There are plenty of Canadian kids missing, too - again, it was not my list.

There has been 3x the number of Canadian first round picks vs U.S. picks since 2020 - and that will continue in 2025 and 2026.

 

[featherhawk]

People have said the same thing about soccer since the 1970's - the number of young U.S. players will produce the best male soccer players in the world. I hasn't happened - nor will it.

Is that perhaps that is a result of Soccer being the most popular sport on the planet and is accessible to any human being that has legs, feet, can run and has some sort of a round ball that can be kicked around?

Bye the way, hockey does not sniff the top 10 most popular sports on the planet.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Canada has prime McDavid now, Bedard, Celebrini, McKenna in 2026 and Dupont in 2027.

Who does the US have coming up ?

Cool bud. How's Canada's defense and goalie development been going?

 

[ORRFForever]

Is that perhaps that is a result of Soccer being the most popular sport on the planet and is accessible to any human being that has legs, feet, can run and has some sort of a round ball that can be kicked around?

Bye the way, hockey does not sniff the top 10 most popular sports on the planet.

Um... Okay.

Cool bud. How's Canada's defense and goalie development been going?

The defense is terrific.

Yes, goaltending is a serious issue - thankfully we only need ONE.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

There are plenty of Canadian kids missing, too - again, it was not my list.

There has been 3x the number of Canadian first round picks vs U.S. picks since 2020 - and that will continue in 2025 and 2026.

We're used to this uphill fight, been doing it a long time.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Don’t think anyone ever said USA would be the number one soccer country. Too unpopular here and too popular everywhere else. Even still USA has made some good strides in soccer. The U.S. women’s team is historically dominant. Even the men are producing a lot more good players these days and look to have surpassed Mexico in CONCACAF

 

[ORRFForever]

Don’t think anyone ever said USA would be the number one soccer country. Too unpopular here and too popular everywhere else. Even still USA has made some good strides in soccer. The U.S. women’s team is historically dominant. Even the men are producing a lot more good players these days and look to have surpassed Mexico in CONCACAF

When soccer took off in the U.S. in the 70's and 80's, LOTS of forcasters said it was only a matter of time before the U.S.'s dominance in sports spilled over to soccer. If you read soccer boards - not necessarily here, American soccer fans are still predicting it.

 

[ORRFForever]

People have been piling the dirt on USA hockey since ‘98

You mean Hockey Canada, right.

 

[WarriorofTime]

When soccer took off in the U.S. in the 70's and 80's, LOTS of forcasters said it was only a matter of time before the U.S.'s dominance in sports spilled over to soccer. If you read soccer boards - not necessarily here, American soccer fans are still predicting it.

Well can’t get into a they said/they said because i dunno who is saying what but I don’t think USA becoming the best men’s soccer team is some widely held belief but people have correctly predicted that USA would improve in soccer which they did. Back in the 70s they were a JOKE. Now they’re top 20 or so which isn’t so bad given how competitive it is globally.

 

[Summer Rose]

When soccer took off in the U.S. in the 70's and 80's, LOTS of forcasters said it was only a matter of time before the U.S.'s dominance in sports spilled over to soccer. If you read soccer boards - not necessarily here, American soccer fans are still predicting it.

American fans of any sport in which we're not already dominant are great at predicting that we'll rise to dominance in that sport only to have it never happen.

It's true of hockey too - the best we can hope for is to catch up and become competitive with the contenders in the sport, because becoming dominant in it would require the nation(s) currently dominant (in hockey, this is Canada) to simultaneously take a massive step backwards, which is incredibly unlikely to happen, in hockey or otherwise. In hockey in particular, what it took for the USSR to stop being dominant was their country to cease to exist - that's not something you can reliably predict.

 

[ORRFForever]

Well can’t get into a they said/they said because i dunno who is saying what but I don’t think USA becoming the best men’s soccer team is some widely held belief but people have correctly predicted that USA would improve in soccer which they did. Back in the 70s they were a JOKE. Now they’re top 20 or so which isn’t so bad given how competitive it is globally.

I'm not saying they aren't. I'm just saying the number of players does not equal quality.

Again, in the 80's people said (paraphrasing), ."The number of American kids playing soccer exceeds the entire population of Argentina. It's only a matter of time before the U.S. produces their own Diego Armando Maradona and the U.S. is better than Argentina"

 

[WarriorofTime]

I'm not saying they aren't. I'm just saying the number of players does not equal quality.

Again, in the 80's people said (paraphrasing), ."The number of American kids playing soccer exceeds the entire population of Argentina. It's only a matter of time before the U.S. produces their own Diego Armando Maradona and the U.S. is better than Argentina"

They got kids playing in youth academies when they’re like six years old. A lot of kids in USA played a little soccer but not that many stick with it or play it that seriously.

Football, basketball, baseball are king and USA holds its own in a wide variety of Olympic sports as well like track and field, swimming, gymnastics, figure skating etc.

 

[CarolinaBlueJacket]

I'm not saying they aren't. I'm just saying the number of players does not equal quality.

Again, in the 80's people said (paraphrasing), ."The number of American kids playing soccer exceeds the entire population of Argentina. It's only a matter of time before the U.S. produces their own Diego Armando Maradona and the U.S. is better than Argentina"

It's weird because I am in America and I do not know any young boys or teens that play competitive soccer. I know plenty of kids playing high level travel baseball, football, AAU basketball, my kid plays college hockey, but again I don't know one kid playing competitive soccer past the age of 8.

 

[ORRFForever]

They got kids playing in youth academies when they’re like six years old. A lot of kids in USA played a little soccer but not that many stick with it or play it that seriously.

Football, basketball, baseball are king and USA holds its own in a wide variety of Olympic sports as well like track and field, swimming, gymnastics, figure skating etc.

I agree. I'm just saying LOTS of people predicted U.S. dominances in soccer.

They still do in soccer forums - they say MLS is taking off and American kids will start playing soccer instead of football, baseball, basketball and hockey and, when they do, the U.S. will rule the soccer world.

They may be right.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I agree. I'm just saying LOTS of people predicted U.S. dominances in soccer.

They still do in soccer forums - they say MLS is taking off and kids will start playing soccer instead of football, baseball, basketball and hockey and, when they do, the U.S. will rule the soccer world.

They may be right.

The biggest American soccer fans I know all hate mls. It’s “cool” to crap on our domestic home league and show how “with it” they are

 

[ORRFForever]

The biggest American soccer fans I know all hate mls. It’s “cool” to crap on our domestic home league and show how “with it” they are

MLS is a ponzi scheme but, to its credit, it draws a lot of fans - and a lot of young fans.

Plus, soccer participation is cheap, cheap, cheap. Give a kid a pair of soccer shoes and he's ready to go. Compare that to hockey.