Is the draft lottery working?

[pabst blue ribbon]

2017: Philadelphia (19th in league standings) picks second while Colarado (30th) gets the fourth pick

2018: Carolina (21st) pick second while Ottawa (30th) get the fourth pick

2019: Chicago (20th) get third overall while Ottawa's pick (31st) gets fourth overall.

This lottery system is antithetical to what the actual purpose of what the draft is supposed to be

 

[Connor McConnor]

Yes, it's working. It deters tanking. Any team that misses the playoffs can win it but you aren't guaranteed a top 2 pick just because you finished last.

If you draft well...you can get good players anywhere in the draft. Islanders got Barzal, Boston got McAvoy and Pastrnak, Detroit got Larkin...all great players, all after the top 10 picks in the draft.

If Toronto had fallen out of 1st 3 years ago and ended up with Poolparty I highly doubt you'd be saying this.

 

[haveandare]

What exactly is the difference?

Unless you're trying to imply that the LA Kings players were going out onto the ice and losing games intentionally.

I didn't say anything about the Kings at all. I didn't watch them enough to say anything about what they did or didn't do.

But tanking is actively trying to lose in a more granular and unusual kind of way. Teams who aren't in it trading players at the deadline and the like for futures has been happening forever, and is logical even if thinking in terms of trying to win.

 

[Pi]

If Toronto had fallen out of 1st 3 years ago and ended up with Poolparty I highly doubt you'd be saying this.

I was pissed that the format changed the same year we finally sucked bad enough to have the best odds. Glad we won.

I'm okay with this format, it should be tweaked a bit to perhaps give slightly better odds to the worst team or have fluctuating odds depending on how bad the team is but that would just make things more complex.

It's a lottery for a reason, everyone has a ticket but not everyone leaves happy.

 

[abo9]

I think it's working. Lets look at the 3 goals you identified:

1: Distribute top talent fairly to all teams: The best teams (those in the playoffs) won't get better than the 16th pick. They presumably already have top talent. Non-playoff teams all get a chance at the very top talent. They presumably lack some of the top talent of playoff teams, and the worst teams get way better odds at winning. also, the worst that can happen to the worst teams are picks 4-6, which are still top talents.

2: Create parity by making the worst teams better: That one might be a bit of a miss, but I think point 2 and 3 somewhat contradicts themselves. But the worst teams still get to pick players at worst in the top 6 like in my previous point. Picking at worst the 6th best rookie in a draft should eventually get you somewhere, the rest is on management.

3: Discourage tanking: I believe the lottery does that pretty well. For example in the case of a McDavid's talent at #1, you'd be super happy to have the best odds to draft him. But will you intentionally tank for a less than 1/5 chance at McDavid?

All in all, I think the lottery makes it so GM's need to be constantly working hard to improve their teams without relying on an exceptional rookie to come along (invest in scouting, development, trades, etc.), but it also distribute talents fairly enough that if they are in a rough patch they can bet on drafting a quality player to help the rebuild (and aim the team in that direction).

 

[oXo Cube]

I didn't say anything about the Kings at all. I didn't watch them enough to say anything about what they did or didn't do.

But tanking is actively trying to lose in a more granular and unusual kind of way. Teams who aren't in it trading players at the deadline and the like for futures has been happening forever, and is logical even if thinking in terms of trying to win.

OK, so what qualifies as "granular and unusual?"

Sure sounds to me like people worrying about a problem that doesn't actually exist.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I honestly felt the previous system of moving up a few spots, with a weighted system towards the top was the most fair.

Bad teams need the most help.


Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo need the most help. These are great hockey markets icing some horrible teams.
Sadly Detroit and Ottawa are likely looking at nearly a decade outside with the odds now stacked against them.


These are cities that have proven to support their teams through thick and thin, and really deserve their prime draft positions. They don't deserve getting shafted like this.

 

[Szechwan]

2017: Philadelphia (19th in league standings) picks second while Colarado (30th) gets the fourth pick

2018: Carolina (21st) pick second while Ottawa (30th) get the fourth pick

2019: Chicago (20th) get third overall while Ottawa's pick (31st) gets fourth overall.

This lottery system is antithetical to what the actual purpose of what the draft is supposed to be

Easy way to fix it is put a limit on how high a team outside the top 10 can move up. Chicago wins last night and moves up 5 places, they're still pumped, and the worst teams don't get completely f***ed over.

Vancouver still does though lol

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Easy way to fix it is put a limit on how high a team outside the top 10 can move up. Chicago wins last night and moves up 5 places, they're still pumped, and the worst teams don't get completely ****ed over.

Vancouver still does though lol

so... exactly like the previous system?


IM on board with that.

 

[obey86]

I don't agree with guaranteeing the worst team the best picks so it's working fine IMO. And I say that as a Wings fan who would LOVE to have a top pick obviously.

 

[haveandare]

OK, so what qualifies as "granular and unusual?"

Sure sounds to me like people worrying about a problem that doesn't actually exist.

I'm not worrying about anything. Not sure who a lot of this stuff is referring to, but it's sure not me.

I'd say for example scratching a healthy and good player for a game or games to end the season would be a tanking kind of move. It's small scale and not something that is usual or can be justified in any other way. A coach telling the guys to go out and mail it in would qualify also for the same reasons.

 

[LDF]

Easy way to fix it is put a limit on how high a team outside the top 10 can move up. Chicago wins last night and moves up 5 places, they're still pumped, and the worst teams don't get completely ****ed over.

Vancouver still does though lol

that success esp yesterday is all dependent on lady luck and the luck of the ball bouncing the right way.

this is as close to a gambling move, dependent on gambling

 

[Connor McConnor]

I was pissed that the format changed the same year we finally sucked bad enough to have the best odds. Glad we won.

I'm okay with this format, it should be tweaked a bit to perhaps give slightly better odds to the worst team or have fluctuating odds depending on how bad the team is but that would just make things more complex.

It's a lottery for a reason, everyone has a ticket but not everyone leaves happy.

Agree with the premise of the lottery but I'm not exactly stoked at the idea that teams that are battling for playoff spots and have good rosters already are jumping into the top 3. This lottery literally SAVED Chicago given their cap problems. Imo top 3 should have better odds and it should only be the worst 10 in the lottery.

 

[oXo Cube]

I'm not worrying about anything. Not sure who a lot of this stuff is referring to, but it's sure not me.

I'd say for example scratching a healthy and good player for a game or games to end the season would be a tanking kind of move. It's small scale and not something that is usual or can be justified in any other way. A coach telling the guys to go out and mail it in would qualify also for the same reasons.

None of my comments were meant to attack you specifically in any way, so if they're coming off as agressive then that is unintentional and I apologize.

Your second paragraph is the point I was attempting to make, though. Do examples like that ever actually happen? I can't think of any.

 

[LDF]

I'm not worrying about anything. Not sure who a lot of this stuff is referring to, but it's sure not me.

I'd say for example scratching a healthy and good player for a game or games to end the season would be a tanking kind of move. It's small scale and not something that is usual or can be justified in any other way. A coach telling the guys to go out and mail it in would qualify also for the same reasons.

going thru all that...... the bottom line is, the org ability to select the right prospects via the draft.

 

[LDF]

Agree with the premise of the lottery but I'm not exactly stoked at the idea that teams that are battling for playoff spots and have good rosters already are jumping into the top 3. This lottery literally SAVED Chicago given their cap problems. Imo top 3 should have better odds and it should only be the worst 10 in the lottery.

and yet the odds of the lottery was there for all the GM's and Owners to see. it was fair.

but again it also on luck.

 

[haveandare]

None of my comments were meant to attack you specifically in any way, so if they're coming off as agressive then that is unintentional and I apologize.

Your second paragraph is the point I was attempting to make, though. Do examples like that ever actually happen? I can't think of any.

It's cool, I don't think its an attack at all, just saying I can't answer why other people might say or think things I don't think or say.

Not sure that those things ever happen. I'm not sure tanking is all that real an issue myself but it's hard to speculate about if it would become more prominent if there were no disincentives in place. It's becoming more important to build through the draft.

 

[patnyrnyg]

Agree with the premise of the lottery but I'm not exactly stoked at the idea that teams that are battling for playoff spots and have good rosters already are jumping into the top 3. This lottery literally SAVED Chicago given their cap problems. Imo top 3 should have better odds and it should only be the worst 10 in the lottery.

Or, it rewards Chicago for staying competitive and fighting for a play-off spot til the end, unlike the bottom dwellers.

 

[LDF]

again let me fully present and example to previous draft ...... now lets look at debrincant and where he was drafted at ??????

got it now ?? Keith in his prime, Saad ...... how bout those trades that worked out - Strome to name one.

see what i mean ??

 

[patnyrnyg]

2017: Philadelphia (19th in league standings) picks second while Colarado (30th) gets the fourth pick

2018: Carolina (21st) pick second while Ottawa (30th) get the fourth pick

2019: Chicago (20th) get third overall while Ottawa's pick (31st) gets fourth overall.

This lottery system is antithetical to what the actual purpose of what the draft is supposed to be

Yeah, so? If anything, would like to see the NFL adopt this rather than the NHL get rid of it. MLB? Well, they draft about 10,000 players every year and most guys need 4-5 years before they can make a major league roster and a lot can change.

 

[LDF]

now for those conspiracy theorist ...... league needs Chi, NYR, LAK to name a few to be successful. the $$$$ is based on the trickle down theory.

 

[um]

Why would a lottery have the intention of preventing teams from getting multiple top 3 picks? It literally helps that happen by denying poor teams talent.

it was made in response to Edmonton getting 4 first overall picks within 6 years.

 

[Yatzhee]

No other team since the inception of the lottery, be it the original version or the 2016 revamped version has been negatively impacted more than the Buffalo Sabres.

Since the 1st draft lottery 12 years ago, the Sabres have slid down the draft depth chart more than any other team, and also have dropped the most 2 spots or greater more than any other.
While many debate tanking, manager, coaching or roster chemistry as reasons for the Sabres remaining toward the bottom, there is no doubt that the draft lottery played as significant a role as any other in that organizations current standings status.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Or, it rewards Chicago for staying competitive and fighting for a play-off spot til the end, unlike the bottom dwellers.

Lol "rewards" Chicago for signing terrible contracts and having an aging core? Yeah I would hope they are "competing" for a playoff spot with 2 $10+ m players in the later stages of their prime. Here lets give them a stimulus package for no reason even tho other teams actually need it. Bowman couldnt even keep the smirk off his face the whole time. He knew what happened was complete BS... except for Chicago fans.

 

[oXo Cube]

it was made in response to Edmonton getting 4 first overall picks within 6 years.

The lottery system is the reason Edmonton drafted first overall 4 times in 6 years.

And if it's trying to prevent that from happening in the future it's doing a damn poor job of it given what it has done for New Jersey.