Is the draft lottery working?

[truthbluth]

No. The draft is not a reward system. It's is meant for parity. The idea that you need to discourage tanking is silly. Teams should draft in the opposite order that they finish. All the lottery does is make it more likely that the same teams end up at the bottom of the standings year after year. The fact that Edmonton and Buffalo haven't improved is simply due to mismanagement (and bad goaltending).
Any team that tanks, by stripping the roster of talent, to drive to the bottom of the standings is going to learn pretty quickly that you cannot build a roster around a single good player.
The effects of tanking are all any team should need to dissuade tanking. All the lottery does is punish fanbases, who, after a season of losing constantly, get to lose one more time. It's vile.

 

[haveandare]

I don't think a team should be able to win the lottery twice within a 5 year period. I'm not just saying that because NJ won, just my honest opinion.

I agree. System mostly works but Edmonton getting 3 1OAs in a short period and now NJ getting 2 is a kittle ridiculous.

 

[Alex Jones]

It does incentivise teams to actually have a go though.

Sure, but what would be your preferred mechanism for teams to rebuild?

I guess that a straight draft theoretically encourages tanking (which I personally have no issues with), but a system like this damages the primary mechanism by which teams without talent acquire talent. It's also the best way for teams in smaller markets to compete as they have limited assets to buy players in the open market.

 

[613Leafer]

Generally yes.

Two minor changes I'd make:

1) Draft lottery wins from previous ~3 years reduce your odds.

2) Playoff appearances in last ~2 years reduce your odds.

I think most people would agree, ideal lottery winners are teams that have missed the playoffs multiple times, but who also haven't won a lottery pick yet (e.g. Vancouver, Arizona, etc).

 

[kingsholygrail]

Yes, it is.

Since the lottery changes in 2016, over the 4 years, the team with the worst record kept the pick twice, moved down 3 spots twice.

People complained for years that the ****ty teams always got the best picks and then when they changed the rules, there's still more whining

The problem that's coming up now is you have the same team selecting 1st overall through the lottery within three years. The system designed to prevent the "Oilers situation" has not done that at all.

 

[New User Name]

I'm not sure why the league even introduced the NBA style lottery.
Just because some people think teams tank on purpose, I don't think the evidence is there to prove it....at least not in the NHL (and yes I'm aware of the allegations)

Just because you live in a society that historically has a mistrust for everything, don't bring it to the draft of the NHL.

Bring back last gets first, second last gets second and so on.

I have no dislike for the Oilers but the stupid changing of the logical way for handling the draft screwed Arizonian and Buffalo (though to a lesser degree) and obviously the Avs this year.

If I was a Devils fan though, I'd be ecstatic.

 

[Eisen]

The league has more parity than ever.

More likely because of a salary cap and not the draft.

 

[Braunbaer]

Funny how some people believe that picking #5 instead of #2 screws up the entire Kings' re-build.

 

[topshelf15]

Funny how some people believe that picking #5 instead of #2 screws up the entire Kings' re-build.

They have a long way to go still,this is just the start....

 

[Eisen]

For some franchises drafting high is the goal. Which is exactly why the lottery exists.

Might be the goal, it's still not a reward.

 

[Tonneau]

For some franchises drafting high is the goal. Which is exactly why the lottery exists.

That kind of management style is what prospect obsessed HFBoards members would adopt, but real GMs actually want to win.

Every team wants to win the Stanley Cup. Every team wants to make the playoffs. Teams that suck don't do it on purpose in order to draft early.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

There's a lot of talk about refusing teams to draft 1st overall more than once.

But there's absolutely no mention of teams being a Cup winner from 4 years ago, drafting top 3.

Blackhawks still have most of their team intact.
Kings won a cup not even 5 years ago, and are in the lottery. Is that REALLY who we want to be giving 1st overall pick to?


I mean there's a lot of commotion being given about the Oilers getting 1st picks, but we're literally allowing recent cup winners to have 1st overall picks. Shouldn't that be a bigger concern for a league hellbent on creating parity?

 

[kingsholygrail]

Funny how some people believe that picking #5 instead of #2 screws up the entire Kings' re-build.

It doesn't, but for this draft the difference between #2 and #5 is pretty big. I didn't want them to fall because now I'm fairly certain Blake will pick d-man and it'd be nice to get a high end forward for once that doesn't need a new back.

There's a lot of talk about refusing teams to draft 1st overall more than once.

But there's absolutely no mention of teams being a Cup winner from 4 years ago, drafting top 3.

Blackhawks still have most of their team intact.
Kings won a cup not even 5 years ago, and are in the lottery. Is that REALLY who we want to be giving 1st overall pick to?


I mean there's a lot of commotion being given about the Oilers getting 1st picks, but we're literally allowing recent cup winners to have 1st overall picks. Shouldn't that be a bigger concern for a league hellbent on creating parity?

The Kings didn't get 1st overall. The Kings have drafted in the top 3 4 times in franchise history. Once in the last 20+ years. The highest in recent memory was #2 when they picked Doughty(And fell to #2 after winning their last game which moved them ahead of the Lightning in the standings.). This team, on paper, was supposed to compete for a spot. It clearly didn't turn out that way. So because they managed to win it five years ago, they should be barred from a high pick?

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

It doesn't, but for this draft the difference between #2 and #5 is pretty big. I didn't want them to fall because now I'm fairly certain Blake will pick d-man and it'd be nice to get a high end forward for once that doesn't need a new back.

Ill trade you the #2 for that cup in '14

 

[kingsholygrail]

Ill trade you the #2 for that cup in '14

You don't have #2.

 

[Rebels57]

6 of the last 10 first overall picks went to just 2 teams. No, it's not working.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

You don't have #2.

 

[LDF]

i think it is, now add the salary cap structure and teams have more parity

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I agree. System mostly works but Edmonton getting 3 1OAs in a short period and now NJ getting 2 is a kittle ridiculous.

Ironically not having a lottery system would mean the Oilers only pick #1 twice (2010, 2011)

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

6 of the last 10 first overall picks went to just 2 teams. No, it's not working.

different lottery systems during that time though

 

[Paralyzer]

I haven't read the whole thread, but I bet you it all comes down to Edmonton's fault somewhere, yet, New Jersey has won the Draft Lottery the same amount of times as the Oilers lol.

 

[S E P H]

18 percent is way to low

My thoughts exactly, system is fine except the percentages are beyond broken.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

We had guys on our board melting down over Alex Georgiev stealing a couple games. We were even mad about beating the Penguins! I think an NFL system where you're guaranteed the top pick if you're the worst team in the league creates way more perverse incentives than this one.

 

[oXo Cube]

We had guys on our board melting down over Alex Georgiev stealing a couple games. We were even mad about beating the Penguins! I think an NFL system where you're guaranteed the top pick if you're the worst team in the league creates way more perverse incentives than this one.

As a personal aside, I think these things are pretty entertaining.
The race to the bottom is a reason for fans of bad teams to remain invested in the NHL product. That has commercial value.

 

[Reaper45]

Funny how some people believe that picking #5 instead of #2 screws up the entire Kings' re-build.

Well you go from drafting a kid who likely will have an immediate impact to drafting a kid who is 2-3 years away at minimum. So yes it does affect the rebuild.