If the people that this actually effects, the owners and GMs, feel it is not working, they will move to get it changed.
Is the draft lottery working?
- Thread starter TheOtherOne
- Start date
i really don't know about that. i really think something along incompetence at the GM position comes to mind.
Because the NHL revamped the odds.
Look at the old percentages the teams had up to 2014.
25,19,14 for 58% for the bottom 3. This year it’s like 18.5, 13.5, 11.5 for 43.5.
Was more than enough to draw the top 3 and allow the team that won to move up more than 4 slots. But to adjust the odds as much as the nhl did as overkill.
DeltaSwede
Registered User
The Canucks have lost 7 total spots since its introduction in 2016 for most in the NHL. They have dropped back every single year.
I don't like it, but it could have happened to any other team.
I don't like it, but it could have happened to any other team.
pabst blue ribbon
🇺🇦🤝🇵🇱
Why should one random mediocre team get a rewarded with a high pick over other mediocre teams? What did Chicago do that Minnesota, Arizona, Philly, Florida and Montreal didn't do? The draft isn't about "rewarding" teams it's about trying to make the worst teams in the league competitive some time in the near future
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FourRings
Registered User
I guess we need to agree to disagree if that's the belief you are working from. I firmly believe that while all teams say they are going to compete, not all front offices truly mean it. The Rangers flat out wrote a letter to their fanbase last season that they were going to tank but they put some frills on it to make it more palatable. I think that if an organization as respected as the Rangers (yuck, can't believe I said that) admits publicly that they are tanking, there definitely others (with less cache, mind you) that do it behind the facade of "we will compete".
oXo Cube
Power Play Merchant
It's wild how many people either don't or choose not to understand this.
Someone has to finish last but a team being consistently in the basement is extremely bad for business, at least in all non-Edmonton cases.
Sky04
Registered User
- Jan 8, 2009
- 29,660
- 18,981
You clearly have no idea what you're talking about, nobody "deserves" high draft picks because they suck and they usually suck continuously because of bad management and rewarding those guys is just wasting talent.
Funny you mention Ottawa, even if they won the lottery they don't even have their pick this year - they'd have gifted Hughes to Colorado. Buffalo? You think a team like that needs more high picks? They ice the most 1st round picks in the league by far, they're icing horrible teams because their management has no idea how to build a team not because they lack high picks
Eichel - Round 1 #2
Reinhart - Round 1 #2
Skinner- Round 1 #7
Dahlin - Round 1 #1
Ristolainen - Round 1 #8
Okoposo - Round 1 #7
Mittelstadt - Round 1 #8
Bogosian - Round 1 #3
Girgensons - Round 1 #14
Thompson - Round 1 #26
Beaulieu - Round 1 #17
Nylander - Round 1 #8
Berglund Round 1 #25
Pominville - Round 2 #55
Larsson - Round 2 #56
McCabe - Round 2# 44
Scandella - Round 2 #55
Montour - Round 2 #55
King'sPawn
Enjoy the chaos
- Jul 1, 2003
- 22,843
- 23,316
As a Kings fan whose team fell 3 spots, yes, it's working.
The teams who do poorly can't expect a top pick to bail them out. They have to draft and develop well.
With a bad infrastructure, the top player won't save a team. With a good infrastructure, a very good player will help the team.
Of course, falling down 3 picks sucks, but good GMs find ways to turn the team around. Hopefully the Kings begin the process sooner rather than later.
The teams who do poorly can't expect a top pick to bail them out. They have to draft and develop well.
With a bad infrastructure, the top player won't save a team. With a good infrastructure, a very good player will help the team.
Of course, falling down 3 picks sucks, but good GMs find ways to turn the team around. Hopefully the Kings begin the process sooner rather than later.
and yet for those who is thinking that the lottery was fix ....... i wonder how many people will be buying lotto tickets this week ??
- Jul 28, 2011
- 16,007
- 10,702
So could the the other teams picking 1 & 2. NJD basically had an AHL roster. NYR were a shit show and still over achieved, not to mentioned they don't have 2 semi-recent cup wins. I'd say those teams needed to beenfit a lot more than the Kings.
Killer Orcas
Registered User
I know it's not working for Vancouver for sure. Should be changed so same team can't draft top 3 within 3 years. Otherwise it's fine I suppose.
Hischier and Hughes
“I love to hockey”
- Jan 28, 2018
- 9,408
- 4,360
While Im sorry for your bad year, a team like NJ who has made the playoffs once since 2012 certainly needed a player like Hughes just as badly if not more than LA.
Most people are probably happy LA fell back because they would have gotten a top-2 talent the first ever year they suck really bad and then likely right back to the playoffs.
EnglishDevil
Registered User
I know my team has obviously benefitted from it, but personally I don’t think the system is that bad.
The only thing i’m not keen on is the huge jumps from teams on the fringes of the playoffs, while the probability is low a team like Montreal who had 96 points shouldn’t be able to displace Ottawa who had 64. I think they need to consider readding a limit to the number of places teams can climb from lower down the order.
I remember when we ‘won’ the lottery but only moved up to 4th to draft Adam Larsson, I felt like that system was innately fairer. Any kind of lottery is going to have randomness however, while it’s unfortunate certain teams (Colorado, Vancouver) keep getting the short end of the stick, that’s how luck goes sometimes, it doesn’t discriminate.
The only thing i’m not keen on is the huge jumps from teams on the fringes of the playoffs, while the probability is low a team like Montreal who had 96 points shouldn’t be able to displace Ottawa who had 64. I think they need to consider readding a limit to the number of places teams can climb from lower down the order.
I remember when we ‘won’ the lottery but only moved up to 4th to draft Adam Larsson, I felt like that system was innately fairer. Any kind of lottery is going to have randomness however, while it’s unfortunate certain teams (Colorado, Vancouver) keep getting the short end of the stick, that’s how luck goes sometimes, it doesn’t discriminate.
you know what would be most hilarious .......
Draft Day.
NJ - picks Hughes
NYR - picks Byram
Chi - picks Kokko
Draft Day.
NJ - picks Hughes
NYR - picks Byram
Chi - picks Kokko
PensPlz
Registered User
The way I've always looked at it is if the draft (any draft in sports really) was a perfect system then every team would win once every ~30 years. Sounds boring to me.
Wayward Son
Registered User
Yes. Teams such as the Carolina Hurricanes and Dallas Stars have been able to get the help they so desperately need. 
KingDeathMetal
Registered User
The lottery was terrible last year, but this year I found that I really enjoyed it.
-Rangers fan
But in all seriousness, I would completely randomize the order with non-playoff teams, right through the 15th pick. Give every bad team equal odds, or let them land exactly where they do in the standings ala NFL - not a fan of this middle ground where it's sort of fair but sort of not. Except it was great this year, when my team landed the 2OA.
You know what isn't working? All the whining from Kings and Sabres fans.
SERIOUSLY? The team that won two cups in the last decade with high lottery picks Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty? YOU guys are complaining?
And Buffalo, didn't you guys just land two of the most heralded lottery picks in recent NHL history? What's the issue?
If you guys can't win by building around Eichel and Dahlin, I don't know what else to tell you. If it makes you feel better, I'm sure the Rangers or Devils will trade the first or second overall pick for both those players.
As a fan of a team that's actually been trying to win for the better part of 12 years and has never had a top three pick in its history, I can't tell you how awesome it is to hear whining about fairness from teams that have been tanking for the last decade and have multiple generational lottery picks on their team.
If your GMs do their job, the Sabres, Kings, and Oilers should all wind up with really awesome players.
-Rangers fan
But in all seriousness, I would completely randomize the order with non-playoff teams, right through the 15th pick. Give every bad team equal odds, or let them land exactly where they do in the standings ala NFL - not a fan of this middle ground where it's sort of fair but sort of not. Except it was great this year, when my team landed the 2OA.
You know what isn't working? All the whining from Kings and Sabres fans.
SERIOUSLY? The team that won two cups in the last decade with high lottery picks Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty? YOU guys are complaining?
And Buffalo, didn't you guys just land two of the most heralded lottery picks in recent NHL history? What's the issue?
If you guys can't win by building around Eichel and Dahlin, I don't know what else to tell you. If it makes you feel better, I'm sure the Rangers or Devils will trade the first or second overall pick for both those players.
As a fan of a team that's actually been trying to win for the better part of 12 years and has never had a top three pick in its history, I can't tell you how awesome it is to hear whining about fairness from teams that have been tanking for the last decade and have multiple generational lottery picks on their team.
If your GMs do their job, the Sabres, Kings, and Oilers should all wind up with really awesome players.
bauer
I MISS GHOST
- Nov 11, 2007
- 4,634
- 4,850
the only tweak they need to make is not allow a team to have multiple 1st overalls in a 3 year span. if you get 1st overall, you can't pick in the top 3 again for at least 3 years.
The lottery was terrible last year, but this year I found that I really enjoyed it.
-Rangers fan
But in all seriousness, I would completely randomize the order with non-playoff teams, right through the 15th pick. Give every bad team equal odds, or let them land exactly where they do in the standings ala NFL - not a fan of this middle ground where it's sort of fair but sort of not. Except it was great this year, when my team landed the 2OA.
You know what isn't working? All the whining from Kings and Sabres fans.
SERIOUSLY? The team that won two cups in the last decade with high lottery picks Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty? YOU guys are complaining?
And Buffalo, didn't you guys just land two of the most heralded lottery picks in recent NHL history? What's the issue?
If you guys can't win by building around Eichel and Dahlin, I don't know what else to tell you. If it makes you feel better, I'm sure the Rangers or Devils will trade the first or second overall pick for both those players.
As a fan of a team that's actually been trying to win for the better part of 12 years and has never had a top three pick in its history, I can't tell you how awesome it is to hear whining about fairness from teams that have been tanking for the last decade and have multiple generational lottery picks on their team.
If your GMs do their job, the Sabres, Kings, and Oilers should all wind up with really awesome players.
the stench of owners incompetents.
obey86
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2009
- 8,013
- 1,274
By the same token, why should one random terrible team get rewarded with a high pick?
Let's say team A finishes with the worst record in the league and team B finishes with the 2nd worst record. However, team A has the most stacked prospect pool in the league as they have drafted top 5-10 for 5 straight seasons and this is team B's first time drafting top 5 in years. With no lottery, team A would get the #1 pick by virtue of the worst record, despite having a significantly better future compared to team B.
Point is, anyway you do it, it's not going to be equal for everyone.
Sol
Smile
- Jun 30, 2017
- 24,354
- 20,457
Doesn't matter if you're jealous or not, Kings have been bad for years at this point. The system is not working.
I think the odds need to be adjusted.
CowbellConray
Registered User
- Sep 8, 2010
- 2,495
- 1,608
It's working.... but at the same time not working. It's working for playoff teams that want a shot a grabbing a top player in a down season. It's working for good divisional teams that don't want the bad teams they beat up on every year to grab top talent for being bad.
It isn't working for the team in spots 2-6 who likely will drop a spot or two in the draft every year. You will always have more losers than winners so those teams will look at the lottery as a failure instead of a success.
I think you could have a much better system if you just limited the amount of times you can pick top 3 consecutively. This whole teams moving from 12 to 3 or 8 to 2 is a little unnecessary. Just say a team cannot pick top 3 more than twice in 5 years. If you sit at 1st but you have picked 2nd and 3rd in the last two drafts you drop to 4. Teams 2-4 move up a spot.
Much simpler and doesn't involve luck.
It isn't working for the team in spots 2-6 who likely will drop a spot or two in the draft every year. You will always have more losers than winners so those teams will look at the lottery as a failure instead of a success.
I think you could have a much better system if you just limited the amount of times you can pick top 3 consecutively. This whole teams moving from 12 to 3 or 8 to 2 is a little unnecessary. Just say a team cannot pick top 3 more than twice in 5 years. If you sit at 1st but you have picked 2nd and 3rd in the last two drafts you drop to 4. Teams 2-4 move up a spot.
Much simpler and doesn't involve luck.
