Is the draft lottery working?

[Panthaz89]

The players never tank. The coaches rarely tank.

The front office just trades anyone who plays well. Ask Enroth. That's how teams tank.

Enroth was in the KHL after 2 more seasons of play...might as well trade someone who isnt going to fit with the core of the group at the deadline it was ok for the Coyotes to trade Dubynk who had a winning record with them very early in the season and drop nearly 20 points from the season before...Enroth wasn't even playing well and was arguably just as good as the guys who came in of you want to run numbers. Fact is Sabres didn't do anything your average rebuilding team would do at the TDL especially when they were out of the playoffs 2 months prior. If they were so bent on tanking why didn't they just roll backup goalies much earlier in the season.

 

[Avsavsavsavsavs]

Still a little salty no Kakko or Hughes, hate the draft lotto and think it should be done out of the bottom 3-4 teams.

 

[Pantokrator]

I'm a Flyers fan who did not think the Flyers should have been given the #2 pick in 2017 (and not because it was a weak draft). It defeats the purpose of the draft.

If the purpose of the draft is to help bad teams get better, then why is a team that finished 13th from last even in the discussion?

When they made it where the one team that won the lottery moved up 3 spaces, it seemed to prevent tanking and prevent a team that barely missed the playoffs from getting the number 1 pick. It seemed to work fine, but I think the NHL wanted to go for the "excitement" factor and throw everyone in the mix. I don't think "excitement" should be a part of the NHL draft equation.

 

[TatteredTornNFrayed]

Avs fan here who thinks it is working fine, and serves the intended purpose, despite really wishing we'd have gotten a 2019 top 2 OA. I think the probability curve may drop off just a little too steeply, but it's not horrible.

Just because the Avs have twice dropped from the 1st pick to the 4th pick doesn't mean that it is not working from an Av's fan's perspective and should be abandoned. Some year in the future they might move up from 9th or 12th pick to the top 3. Eventually it will trend towards evening out for all teams, but only if it is left alone, or only slightly tweak the probabilities.

The fact that it is unpredictable is the point, and this prevents teams from trying to control which pick they get.

The WORST thing that could happen from an Avalanche fan's perspective is for them to get rid of it now, because then we will never get to benefit from it, and will then remain one of the few teams to have been most penalized by it.

 

[TatteredTornNFrayed]

I would just prefer they make the drawing a little more transparent, or even televise it live. I have watched the drawing videos released in the past, and I realize doing it live means the 1st pick is revealed first, but I think that could be lived with. I think a live televised drawing could actually make it slightly more interesting.

Also, I have often toyed with the thought whether they should draw for all 15 picks. People who dislike the current system would hate that even more... at first. It would seem like a very drastic change for the first few years. However, this would increase the likelihood that all teams will eventually benefit some years and suffer some years, and increase the chances for time to balance things out. I know randomness can have some crazy streaky non-balanced outcomes, but basically this would increase the "sample size," and people would over time become more comfortable with it. The one thing is that if you draw for all 15 picks, I feel the probability curve should definitely be skewed slightly more in favor of the weaker teams.​

 

[HolyJumpin]

Really think that the league should account for teams like Vancouver, Arizona, and Detroit being bad and getting the shaft. Don't know how but it'd make sense. Teams shouldn't get more than one lottery pick within 5 years imo. That'd probably turn the ship around real quick.

 

[Dr Pepper]

The lottery works fine, it's just managerial incompetence that keeps teams like Edmonton swirling around the drain for so long.

 

[Panthaz89]

I don't understand the logic of people thinking its not going to encourage big rebuilding moves once another expected future all time great is coming into the draft...people are still going to try to be worse just to get overall better odds its not going to make a difference unless the odds are completely even but then it would probably break the parity of the league entirely.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Really think that the league should account for teams like Vancouver, Arizona, and Detroit being bad and getting the shaft. Don't know how but it'd make sense. Teams shouldn't get more than one lottery pick within 5 years imo. That'd probably turn the ship around real quick.

No, it wouldn't. As I keep pointing out repeatedly, teams that are bad are generally bad for a simple reason: they lack talent. The addition of a lottery pick doesn't suddenly make bad teams good, especially in the current paradigm where "lottery pick" is "anything in the top-3" and #3 could be a fairly notable drop from #1 and #2 and especially when not all draft classes are of equal strength. The top of the 2012 draft was noticeably weaker than that of 2011 or 2013; the 2008 draft was relatively deep but focused more on defense, and 18-year old defensemen rarely step in and elevate a team in this day and age.

Claiming that "one lottery pick is enough to make teams better" pretends that every lottery pick should just be thrown into the NHL at age 18 and stuck there for a year, whether they're ready or not. There are perfectly legitimate reasons for not playing an 18-year old for a full season, hence the oft-mentioned in the fall "9-game tryout." [No, I am not buying some "well if he's not ready to play in the NHL at 18, he shouldn't be drafted" kind of bullshit that anyone tries to run.]

Quit trying to come up with contrived excuses for why every lottery pick is the panacea to every bad team's problems. Even better, quit coming up with contrived ways to "fix" the lottery by going to great lengths to punish teams who are legitimately bad in the never-ending quest to "fix" the "problem" of tanking. I have said numerous times now what the easy solution is to "fix" that problem; it's simple, it's instant, and it's guaranteed to work - and it doesn't unfairly paint every team with the broad "they're trying to intentionally be bad" brush. Try it first.

 

[Tripod]

Really think that the league should account for teams like Vancouver, Arizona, and Detroit being bad and getting the shaft. Don't know how but it'd make sense. Teams shouldn't get more than one lottery pick within 5 years imo. That'd probably turn the ship around real quick.

They do. They give them a higher % to win the draft. The draft should never guarantee anything.

 

[NJDevs26]

Sabres tank is a myth they didn't purposely play the worst lineups possible and the coach got the most out of the players they had most of their big trades were done the season before and they actually had an improved point total from the season before I love how people ignore this.

They actually traded a goalie for a worse goalie, that's more or less the same thing. Buffalo wasn't alone in tanking that year, Edmonton and Arizona had hideously bad seasons too - Buffalo was just the most overt with their fans actively cheering it on.

The lottery itself has one single purpose - to prevent tanking, period. And in this it's successful. Look at how most of the bottom teams besides (ironically) Buffalo played down the stretch and even they finally won a couple games at the end to bump up one or two spots. In the four years of the lottery only three teams that finished in the bottom three won lottos. Toronto, Buffalo and us this year (we had third best odds). It's not going to prevent rebuilding itself - nothing will.

It's preposterous the Devils managed to win two lottos from the 3 and 5 slot in back to back drawings, sort of the inverse of the Avs fan I don't want to be in any more lottos for the next decade or so because I know eventually the worm has to turn. I figured it'd turn this year so I wasn't going too nuts over lottery position.

 

[passive voice]

just get rid of the draft (and ELCs/Restricted FA), there's a cap

 

[Panthaz89]

They actually traded a goalie for a worse goalie, that's more or less the same thing. Buffalo wasn't alone in tanking that year, Edmonton and Arizona had hideously bad seasons too - Buffalo was just the most overt with their fans actively cheering it on.

The lottery itself has one single purpose - to prevent tanking, period. And in this it's successful. Look at how most of the bottom teams besides (ironically) Buffalo played down the stretch and even they finally won a couple games at the end to bump up one or two spots. In the four years of the lottery only three teams that finished in the bottom three won lottos. Toronto, Buffalo and us this year (we had third best odds). It's not going to prevent rebuilding itself - nothing will.

It's preposterous the Devils managed to win two lottos from the 3 and 5 slot in back to back drawings, sort of the inverse of the Avs fan I don't want to be in any more lottos for the next decade or so because I know eventually the worm has to turn. I figured it'd turn this year so I wasn't going too nuts over lottery position.

no its not it would be if it was simply a 1 for 1 but they got mid round picks back for goalies that weren't even starter quality...so basically all they did was trade a backup for a slightly worse backups and additional picks because you don't build around backup goalies as a young team. Sabres won the last 2 games of the season and ended up winning 7-1 in their final game for the first b2b wins in a few months. Your bolded portion is a joke...the worst teams need the talent the most the fact that 3 teams that nearly missed the playoffs won as many lotto picks as bottom 3 teams is just horrible for the league. Hope the fans that end up losing their team because they can't bring in revenue like the Coyotes are going to be stoked that they couldn't get a solid foundation thanks to bad luck. The NFL runs on a reverse standings and it works perfectly fine....the NBA lottery is even more random than the NHL along with the hard cap and that league is a joke as their is only 1-3 teams with a real shot to win with 1 team probably having realistically 80%+ chance to win it all. All the lottery does is ruin the parity of the league regardless if their is a salary cap or not.

 

[lomiller1]

The players never tank. The coaches rarely tank.

The front office just trades anyone who plays well. Ask Enroth. That's how teams tank.

Enroth was on an expiring contract. Why wouldn't they trade him if they had the opportunity? Every team out of the playoffs trade these types of players every single year, or at least try to. I guess everyone is tanking all the time...

 

[AvsCOL]

I think the lottery is fine, except that teams on the playoff bubble shouldn't be jumping into the top-3. Have it so that you can only move up 5-7 spots, and the top teams can only drop 2-3. Teams going from 13 to 2 for example, should never happen.

edit: mind you, it's frustrating as hell to have the shiny toy dangled in front of you all season only to drop 3 spots, and a division rival sitting outside the top-1o jumps you...

 

[Pantokrator]

I think the lottery is fine, except that teams on the playoff bubble shouldn't be jumping into the top-3. Have it so that you can only move up 5-7 spots, and the top teams can only drop 2-3. Teams going from 13 to 2 for example, should never happen.

edit: mind you, it's frustrating as hell to have the shiny toy dangled in front of you all season only to drop 3 spots, and a division rival sitting outside the top-1o jumps you...

I agree. I want just one team moves up a limited amount of spots and everything else moves accordingly.

 

[nightonthesun]

Avs fan here. Definitely not working. No sirree.

 

[EmptyNetAssassin]

I think the Top 5 Picks should only be offered to bottom 10 teams. Chicago barely misses the playoffs, but gets the 3rd overall pick.

 

[Pantokrator]

I think the Top 5 Picks should only be offered to bottom 10 teams. Chicago barely misses the playoffs, but gets the 3rd overall pick.

Same with Philly a couple years ago. No reason they should have moved up to #2.

 

[EmptyNetAssassin]

Same with Philly a couple years ago. No reason they should have moved up to #2.

I agree.

 

[sabremike]

They actually traded a goalie for a worse goalie, that's more or less the same thing. Buffalo wasn't alone in tanking that year, Edmonton and Arizona had hideously bad seasons too - Buffalo was just the most overt with their fans actively cheering it on.

The lottery itself has one single purpose - to prevent tanking, period. And in this it's successful. Look at how most of the bottom teams besides (ironically) Buffalo played down the stretch and even they finally won a couple games at the end to bump up one or two spots. In the four years of the lottery only three teams that finished in the bottom three won lottos. Toronto, Buffalo and us this year (we had third best odds). It's not going to prevent rebuilding itself - nothing will.

It's preposterous the Devils managed to win two lottos from the 3 and 5 slot in back to back drawings, sort of the inverse of the Avs fan I don't want to be in any more lottos for the next decade or so because I know eventually the worm has to turn. I figured it'd turn this year so I wasn't going too nuts over lottery position.

The gigantic flaw in what you are saying is that the tank Sabres actually played far better in the last 4-6 weeks of that season and nearly won so many games in that span they nearly wrecked the whole tank.

 

[stealth1]

Its not working. The point of the draft is to help bottom feeding teams get high end talent to help those teams get better.

It seems its fans of teams like Dallas, LA, Florida and Carolina that refuse to bottom out cause their fans won't support a rebuild. I hear a lot from those fans of those teams believe teams should always try for the playoffs every season.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Its not working. The point of the draft is to help bottom feeding teams get high end talent to help those teams get better.

It seems its fans of teams like Dallas, LA, Florida and Carolina that refuse to bottom out cause their fans won't support a rebuild. I hear a lot from those fans of those teams believe teams should always try for the playoffs every season.

We do?

 

[Not So Mighty]

I think it's a disgrace. I have a feeling when execs from the NFL watch this they fall out of their chairs laughing.

It should just go back to drafting players in the order of the standings. Worst drafts first, and so on.

This tanking concern is so overblown it makes me sad.

When you're a team, with a bunch of aging vets, on the downswing, there's two ways to handle it.

You can hang on to those vets and wait for them to leave on their own, like Detroit. In this case you end up getting nothing for them when they retire.

Or you can trade them off and hope to get some assets for them before they hang 'em up. Like Buffalo tried to do, but failed miserably.

Either way, both end up at the bottom of the standings and neither should be punished for being terrible.

This whole lottery thing is a travesty.

Nor should they be rewarded.

 

[GaryU]

I think the Top 5 Picks should only be offered to bottom 10 teams. Chicago barely misses the playoffs, but gets the 3rd overall pick.

As a Hawks fan, I'm thrilled. Is that how the lottery should work? No. Bottom 5 teams only.