Is Ovechkin the 5th best player of all time?

Is Ovechkin the 5th best of all time?

  • Yes he is

    Votes: 31 10.4%
  • No he is not (please specify)

    Votes: 238 79.9%
  • I think Ovechkin is #4 or better

    Votes: 7 2.3%
  • I had a bad day and regret reading these options

    Votes: 22 7.4%

  • Total voters
    298

BackToTheBasics

Registered User
Dec 26, 2013
3,832
826
Three problems with your point here:

1) Your stats disregard 30 some percent of all scoring. It's a fairly common way of detracting from one of the best powerplay players and the greatest powerplay goal scorer of all time.

2) The Pens likely have the upper hand in terms of goal differential in the seasons you've not included. They certainly have it as a team as a whole.

3) Ovechkin is always going to have tougher match-ups than Crosby because the Capitals have generally never had a second line that would occupy anywhere near as much attention as Ovechkin's line. Whereas for the Pens, Crosby is typically going to split time against the opposition's top D pairing or shut down lines with Malkin.



You just made a post to suggest it's not wins and losses that matter, but goal differential at 5v5 only. But you rely on wins and losses here (which is a proxy for making the playoffs). Personally, I'm not a big believer in WOWY stats because there are too many other factors that amount to important context.
Another point of contention with how the data is presented is that it includes 2 massive outlier seasons (2010/2017) that skew the results. Removing these seasons, the ratios are nearly identical at 1.05 for the Pens and 1.07 for the Capitals. If we consider this a valid way to judge anything in any case, it makes much more sense to look at the cumulative average for a shorter timeframe like '09-'11, '12-'14, etc. as the circumstances change for both teams with being either cup contenders or borderline playoff teams.
 

Hockey Outsider

Registered User
Jan 16, 2005
9,470
15,710
Three problems with your point here:

1) Your stats disregard 30 some percent of all scoring. It's a fairly common way of detracting from one of the best powerplay players and the greatest powerplay goal scorer of all time.
There's no disagreement here. I've said many times that Ovechkin is one of the greatest powerplay performers ever.

2) The Pens likely have the upper hand in terms of goal differential in the seasons you've not included. They certainly have it as a team as a whole.
The data for 2006 and 2007 doesn't exist. We can try to back into it using a bunch of assumptions, but I thought it was better to post the concrete data only.

Out of curiosity, I looked up 2023 and 2024 just now. The Pens and Caps had virtually the same results at 5v5 when Crosby and Ovechkin are off the ice (a GF to GA ratio of 0.93 for Pittsburgh, and 0.92 for Washington). Crosby personally had a 1.15 ratio, and Ovechkin had a 0.81 ratio. It's the same general trend we've seen for the past decade - on similar quality teams, Crosby is more effective at driving his team's results at 5v5 (this is something that, I think, is pretty obvious from watching them play).

Again, this doesn't take PP scoring into account, where Ovechkin is one of the greatest ever. But if we're going micro-analyze both players, surely it's relevant to recognize their strengths and weaknesses. (Nor does this include PK situations, which is essentially Not Applicable for both players).

3) Ovechkin is always going to have tougher match-ups than Crosby because the Capitals have generally never had a second line that would occupy anywhere near as much attention as Ovechkin's line. Whereas for the Pens, Crosby is typically going to split time against the opposition's top D pairing or shut down lines with Malkin.
I agree that Ovechkin virtually always faces the opponents' top defenders. In general, Crosby does too (I know this is an old example, but look at the 2008 and 2009 Stanley Cup finals against Detroit - it was Crosby, not Malkin, who was targetted by Zetterberg and Lidstrom). But I agree with your general point that, over the course of their careers, Ovechkin was more likely to be targeted by the the opponents' top defenders (but it wasn't 50/50 between Crosby and Malkin either).

You just made a post to suggest it's not wins and losses that matter, but goal differential at 5v5 only. But you rely on wins and losses here (which is a proxy for making the playoffs). Personally, I'm not a big believer in WOWY stats because there are too many other factors that amount to important context.
Conceptually, looking at wins and losses would be preferable. But that's a small sample size (particularly for Ovechkin, who's missed hardly any games throughout his career - and of course, that's a point in his favour). Looking at goals for/against gives you much more data to consider.

The other reason GF and GA data matters is it gives you data from every single season. Even if someone played all 82 games, you can look at how the team did when a player was off the ice. If we're looking only at wins and losses, most seasons can't be analyzed in any meaningful way (ie we're not going to draw a meaningful conclusion from Washington's W/L/T record in the three games Ovechkin missed in 2009 - but we can tell that they were vastly better at outscoring their opponents when he was on the ice, over the course of the entire season).

(EDIT - I don't want to rehash the old Crosby vs Ovechkin argument. My point was, their teams were fairly comparable over the course of their careers. Yes, Crosby might end up with 3 HOF teammates and Ovechkin might only have 1, but we're not doing a fantasy draft. The Penguins (excluding Crosby) and the Capitals (excluding Ovechkin) were roughly equal over the course of the past twenty years, and that's ultimately what counts).
 
Last edited:

bambamcam4ever

107 and counting
Feb 16, 2012
15,034
7,127
This seems to be a fantasy hockey way of evaluating teams. A franchise needs to be assessed by its on-ice results. It doesn't matter which club has more Hall of Famers.

Here are the goal ratios (ie goals scored divided by goals against) for Pittsburgh and Washington, at five on five, when Crosby and Ovechkin are off the ice:

YEARPITWAS
2008​
1.030.78
2009​
1.181.04
2010​
0.901.30
2011​
1.000.98
2012​
1.071.03
2013​
1.051.02
2014​
0.881.10
2015​
1.011.11
2016​
1.131.12
2017​
1.161.72
2018​
0.931.04
2019​
0.931.18
2020​
1.121.21
2021​
1.251.21
2022​
1.051.10
Average1.051.13

On average, the Capitals (without Ovechkin) had a better goal differential than the Penguins (without Crosby). Granted, it's pretty close, but this is why it's important not to look at things through the lens of fantasy draft. Even though the Penguins had Malkin (and two other potential HOF'ers), that didn't translate into an environment that was more conducive to outscoring their opponent.

Note - the data above is only for 2008 to 2022. Someone else can dig up the stats for the other years if they want (I had this data already saved). Given that both teams missed the playoffs in three of these four years, it's hard to imagine that it would meaningfully change the conclusion.

Plus/minus has its limitations, obviously. But Crosby going +212 (compared to Ovechkin going +55), on a team that was (slightly) less successful at outscoring its opponents, is impressive. (This argument shouldn't be over-emphasized, as there are plenty of things that should be considered in evaluating their careers, but it can't be denied that Crosby was substantially more effective at driving his team's results at five-on-five).
Great post
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
24,757
11,630
Three problems with your point here:

1) Your stats disregard 30 some percent of all scoring. It's a fairly common way of detracting from one of the best powerplay players and the greatest powerplay goal scorer of all time.

2) The Pens likely have the upper hand in terms of goal differential in the seasons you've not included. They certainly have it as a team as a whole.

3) Ovechkin is always going to have tougher match-ups than Crosby because the Capitals have generally never had a second line that would occupy anywhere near as much attention as Ovechkin's line. Whereas for the Pens, Crosby is typically going to split time against the opposition's top D pairing or shut down lines with Malkin.



You just made a post to suggest it's not wins and losses that matter, but goal differential at 5v5 only. But you rely on wins and losses here (which is a proxy for making the playoffs). Personally, I'm not a big believer in WOWY stats because there are too many other factors that amount to important context.
Wait Crosby benefits from playing so much with Malkin and Malkin anchoring the second line and diverting attention away....which one is it?

Also when The Red Wings played the Pens those 2 years for the SC they focused on Crosby not Malkin and frankly you should know better.

That aside it's pretty clear that the vast majority of voters here don't have Ovi as 5th all time and for good reason.

I mean the OP asks a fair question on the surface but upon scrutiny just being the guy with the msot goals all time doesn't give Ovi a ticket for 5th spot and frankly he is clsoer to 10th overall than 5th when all players and psotions are included.

A more interesting question would be is Ovi the 5th best forward of all time?
 
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bambamcam4ever

107 and counting
Feb 16, 2012
15,034
7,127
Another point of contention with how the data is presented is that it includes 2 massive outlier seasons (2010/2017) that skew the results. Removing these seasons, the ratios are nearly identical at 1.05 for the Pens and 1.07 for the Capitals. If we consider this a valid way to judge anything in any case, it makes much more sense to look at the cumulative average for a shorter timeframe like '09-'11, '12-'14, etc. as the circumstances change for both teams with being either cup contenders or borderline playoff teams.
You mean two years when the Capitals won the Presidents trophy? And failed to win the cup? Not sure you're making the point you intended.
 
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BackToTheBasics

Registered User
Dec 26, 2013
3,832
826
You mean two years when the Capitals won the Presidents trophy? And failed to win the cup? Not sure you're making the point you intended.
Or you didn't understand the reason for bringing up that contention. My point was outside of those years, they performed similarly relative to their teams. I don't think we should disregard 2010/2017 but at least understand that those particular seasons make the difference between them seem slightly larger than it was over 15 seasons.

This is the huge problem when posters make a gut reaction from a biased starting point and actually hurt their arguments in the process.
I'm sure you would know.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
24,757
11,630
Or you didn't understand the reason for bringing up that contention. My point was outside of those years, they performed similarly relative to their teams. I don't think we should disregard 2010/2017 but at least understand that those particular seasons make the difference between them seem slightly larger than it was over 15 seasons.


I'm sure you would know.
The argument is for 5th all time so why would we remove anything when comparing?
 

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