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Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan MacKinnon's Hart?

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For the first six games after the trade, Mac had 1 goal and 5 points and lost his Art Ross lead.

In the last 10 games, Mac has 7 goals and 22 points, including ONE empty net point.

For those want to give Drai an edge due to his goalscoring, then you have to consider Mac's edge in primary assists. McDavid never gets dinged for not being the goals leader given his elite playmaking.

For those who look at EN points, Drai has more 3 on 3 OT points, all but one shared with you know who.

I am not sure that Mac needs that much of a lead in points to beat Draisaitl. His performance since the trade is starting to become a compelling narrative and the Avs have now passed the Oilers in the standings after being behind before the trade.
 
Draisaitl continues to be the clear Hart leader. He heads the league in points if you disregard empty-netters, and he has 20 more goals than potential runner-up Mackinnon. Add to that Draisaitls exceptional defensive play this season (there are selke rumblings) and its not really close.
 
daver said:
For the first six games after the trade, Mac had 1 goal and 5 points and lost his Art Ross lead.

In the last 10 games, Mac has 7 goals and 22 points, including ONE empty net point.

For those want to give Drai an edge due to his goalscoring, then you have to consider Mac's edge in primary assists. McDavid never gets dinged for not being the goals leader given his elite playmaking.

For those who look at EN points, Drai has more 3 on 3 OT points, all but one shared with you know who.

I am not sure that Mac needs that much of a lead in points to beat Draisaitl. His performance since the trade is starting to become a compelling narrative and the Avs have now passed the Oilers in the standings after being behind before the trade.
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Who cares about the last 10 games??
It's an award for a full season, there are sure 10 game stretches which other where better than MacK.
Pretty sure Makar has been almost equal in this stretch and he is a D.
MacK has still 10 more ENP and you bring up 3 on 3 as comparison?
It's like comparing a three pointer to an free throw...it's not the same and one is harder than the other.
For the record I don't care about ENP but I remember when the Oilers had the best PP in NHL history everybody said PP don't count the same, PP merchant...and to score in an empty net is now harder than 3 on 3 and PP...that's ridiculous.
Everything you mentioned isn't really anything special, you are trying to hard to make a case when the obvious choice (Drai) is clear for everybody.

I am not saying the race is over, if MacK finishes with 20+ points it's fine if he gets the Hart, nobody would complain...but as long they are close it's Drai`s and should be...he has also outplayed McD over the full season not only a small stretch and has ramped it up with McD out of the lineup...Oilers are a shit show right now and wouldn't be out of a playoff spot without Drai...and he's play half the time with Podkolzin and Arvidsson...MacK has always Makar and Rantanen/Necas on the ice...just imagine Rantanen and Makar stapled to Drais ass, the AR race would long be over...this season Drai has dragged McD with him when both were on the ice not vice versa.
 
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BertMcDrai said:
Who cares about the last 10 games??
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It shows that Mac doesn't need any particular winger on his line to produce, a common narrative before the trade, and that he is resilient to a major lineup change mid-season.

I am fine with an edge to goalscoring but that edge has gotten smaller since Mac got settled into the trade and perhaps taken on more of a goalscoring role with Necas than he was with Rantanen. Mac is normally an all around offensive force so don't be surprised if he closes the % gap the rest of the way.

The rest of your post is just the subjective gibberish that gets thrown out in all MVP talk.

FWIW, I think Makar and McDavid cancel each other out this year for the most part but that can change too if McDavid returns to his expected form.

If you want to talk about the quality of their forward linemates then we can talk about Mac being the sole focus by the other team in matchups.

I doubt things will stay the way they are so let's see how it plays out. I don't think it's Drai's to lose at the moment. If I was betting would say it's 50/50 at this point given how the narrative for MacKinnon has a lot of room to grow.
 
Gnome17 said:
Draisaitl continues to be the clear Hart leader. He heads the league in points if you disregard empty-netters, and he has 20 more goals than potential runner-up Mackinnon. Add to that Draisaitls exceptional defensive play this season (there are selke rumblings) and its not really close.
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But I was told goals don't matter and getting 100 assists is more impressive. Weird how that changed in 1 year?
 
Didn’t we see Oilers fans putting Bouchard in the same category as Makar earlier this year? So I don’t know why Makar being brought up here like he is a difference maker in term of production when Oilers have a dman in the same tier :sarcasm:
 
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daver said:
For those want to give Drai an edge due to his goalscoring, then you have to consider Mac's edge in primary assists. McDavid never gets dinged for not being the goals leader given his elite playmaking.

I am not sure that Mac needs that much of a lead in points to beat Draisaitl. His performance since the trade is starting to become a compelling narrative and the Avs have now passed the Oilers in the standings after being behind before the trade.
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McDavid lost the Hart to Matthews in 2022 despite having 17 more points.

MacKinnon winning the Hart over Draisaitl despite it being a nearly identical situation to 2022 except Mackinnon having a much smaller point lead would be typical NHL.
 
Mack deserves the Hart. He excels with his play and elevates the play of his teammates. But I, as an Avs fan, would be willing for Mack to forgo being awarded the Hart if it means he gets another SC championship.
 
daver said:
For the first six games after the trade, Mac had 1 goal and 5 points and lost his Art Ross lead.

In the last 10 games, Mac has 7 goals and 22 points, including ONE empty net point.

For those want to give Drai an edge due to his goalscoring, then you have to consider Mac's edge in primary assists. McDavid never gets dinged for not being the goals leader given his elite playmaking.

For those who look at EN points, Drai has more 3 on 3 OT points, all but one shared with you know who.

I am not sure that Mac needs that much of a lead in points to beat Draisaitl. His performance since the trade is starting to become a compelling narrative and the Avs have now passed the Oilers in the standings after being behind before the trade.
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At the end of the day, goals trump all when talking about importance of individual points. Drai’s edge in goals is inarguably more important than anyone with an equal edge in primary assists.

If he leads by a large margin in goals while also being close in overall points (as is currently the case), he deserves it. That’s no slight to anyone else’s season.
 
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Spilot23 said:
Didn’t we see Oilers fans putting Bouchard in the same category as Makar earlier this year? So I don’t know why Makar being brought up here like he is a difference maker in term of production when Oilers have a dman in the same tier :sarcasm:
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No.

The Avs are simply a better run team than the Oilers are at all facets of the game. The Oilers are handicapped by some of the worst management in the league.
 
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22Brad Park said:
He is doing it with no McDavid next to him.Might not get Hart but he will get Art Ross is my bet
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Poor Mackinnon, playing basically the entire season with either Rantannen or Necas on his wing and all his ice time with the best defenseman in the world on the ice.

Draisaitl does play with Mcdavid quite a bit even strength, you know who he plays with even more? Elite finisher Podkolzon.
 
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Bank Shot said:
McDavid lost the Hart to Matthews in 2022 despite having 17 more points.

MacKinnon winning the Hart over Draisaitl despite it being a nearly identical situation to 2022 except Mackinnon having a much smaller point lead would be typical NHL.
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Mack should've won it when Hall won and maybe one other time as well. Your point? If Drai won I'd see it as justified. If Mack wins it, i'd also agree. Mack has been a force in the league for the last 3 seasons, largely by his own doing and play creation.

Necas is elevating that and will likely have a larger impact on his point totals than Rants and Makar.

I think Mack has probably been the best overall NHL player in the League since Jan 2022. I think you could also make the argument for others including McDavid and Drai. But overall impact to his team... I think you have to go with Mack for this period of time.
 
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daver said:
For the first six games after the trade, Mac had 1 goal and 5 points and lost his Art Ross lead.

In the last 10 games, Mac has 7 goals and 22 points, including ONE empty net point.

For those want to give Drai an edge due to his goalscoring, then you have to consider Mac's edge in primary assists. McDavid never gets dinged for not being the goals leader given his elite playmaking.

For those who look at EN points, Drai has more 3 on 3 OT points, all but one shared with you know who.

I am not sure that Mac needs that much of a lead in points to beat Draisaitl. His performance since the trade is starting to become a compelling narrative and the Avs have now passed the Oilers in the standings after being behind before the trade.
Click to expand...

I think early season narratives can be hard to beat, and MacKinnon didn’t look quite as dominant early on, despite the points, and was criticized for how many empty net points he had and didn’t have great underlying numbers. Meanwhile, after Draisaitl got hot, by the halfway mark of the year his underlying numbers were really strong and there were some Selke rumblings. But while Draisaitl’s 5v5 offensive numbers have continued to be strong, his defensive numbers have been trending closer to average, and MacKinnon’s have shot up. Meanwhile, MacKinnon’s looked a lot better than the early season and hasn’t been as heavy with the empty net points.

If we look at their 5v5 numbers now in terms of defense, MacKinnon has slight leads in CA/60 (50.5 to 50.7), SA/60 (23.3 to 25.9), GA/60 (2.1 to 2.35), and xGA/60 (2.38 to 2.40). He also leads in CF% (59.2 to 58.5) and GF% (61 to 57.8), though Draisaitl leads in xGF% by a slight margin (59.5 to 58.7).

I think the idea that MacKinnon’s points aren’t reflective in his play and Draisaitl’s been the much better all around player is still lingering but it doesn’t hold up. MacKinnon’s numbers are back to looking great overall and his GAR and RAPM numbers are also strong:

IMG_8920.png


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Draisaitl’s are still better but not by a huge amount:

IMG_8919.png


IMG_8922.png


Draisaitl does have the massive goal advantage but like you say, there’s only a 1 point lead for Draisaitl in terms of primary points, and 4 points in terms of points on a goaltender. And if we take away both 3 on 3 and empty net points, they’re even.

I do think Draisaitl’s been a bit better this year, but I think there was a much bigger advantage 2 months ago, and there’s enough time left for things to change. At this point it should be pretty close. I also agree that the post-Rantanen surge is a compelling narrative and if the Avs continue to be ahead of the Oilers it could tip things in MacK’s favour.
 
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OilWagon said:
Poor Mackinnon, playing basically the entire season with either Rantannen or Necas on his wing and all his ice time with the best defenseman in the world on the ice.

Draisaitl does play with Mcdavid quite a bit even strength, you know who he plays with even more? Elite finisher Podkolzon.
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That sounds like a coaching/management/roster issue. How about Lehkonen being a career 20-30 point guy and magically on pace for 60+ next to MacKinnon?

If anything, shows how dependent Leon is on McDavid and the PP.

B.png
 
Galactico said:
Lol put MacKinnon with McDavid and he would be tearing up the league even more with at least 20 more points than what he has now. Anybody saying the opposite is lying to himself.

And likewise, Draisaitl would have at least 15-20 less points playing away from McDavid.
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And yet Draisaitl leads McDavid by 15 points... :huh:
 
benfranklin said:
2 assists for the dawg tonight. 1000 points. One primary. Win for his team.

That’s the correct way to do it.

Or lose to the Sabres lol
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2 assists for Draisaitl. Too bad his goalie is dogshit while MacK's team has an actual NHL goalie.
 
Duke74 said:
2 assists for Draisaitl. Too bad his goalie is dogshit while MacK's team has an actual NHL goalie.
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*Secondary assists for Draisaitl...in a loss...to the Sabres.

28 games with Georgiev/backups this season. Avs should be leading the Presidents race then. Curious what McDavid and Drais would do if they started every game 0-3 0-4.
 
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