Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan MacKinnon's Hart?

[GreeningOil]

Cherry picking some of the dumber fans on here from last year. Empty Net points shouldn’t be an asterisk stat; if they were so easy then everyone would load up on them.

I for one thought Kucherov was going to win last year because his team would have been a lottery team without him. Posted on here about it several times.

That said, MacK has been the better player and has had more points this year. Is it impossible that Drai wins the Hart? No, but right now it’s Mack’s to lose IMO.

Drai has 19 more goals. That has a recent history of being a tiebreaker. Especially if he pulls of 60 & 60

 

[benfranklin]

Everyone here is way over analyzing empty net points. Last year we all thought it would be a tight race and most leaned towards Kuch. MacKinnon won in dominating fashion and his multiple 30+ point 19 game point streaks had a lot to do with it.

He had Makar (90) and Rantanen (104) last season too. If anything, losing Rantanen this season should give MacKinnon more votes.

Leon obviously has McDavid "only" which IMO will always be held against him, but Matthews won the Hart with 60-46 being 17 points behind McDavid. That year IMO McDavid/Leon cancelled each other out and Matthews won pretty convincingly.

Going off that all, I think Kuch may sneak away with it this year. Its pretty balanced after him for Tampa and obviously he is the common denominator.

So my vote today goes for MacKinnon, then Kuch, then Makar.

I really think the 60-60 argument for Leon is big, but same can be said for Makar if hits 30-70, or even 35-70 which is very possible. 100 points for a dman is massive

 

[BertMcDrai]

If the season would end today it's Drai`s to lose...but still lots of hockey left and everything up front could change really quick.

 

[Avsfan1921]

If Drai still leads by a 20 goal margin while being within 10 points then it should be him hands down imo. They both do more than what the stat sheet can show but goals are the name of the game in hockey and that’s too substantial of a lead to consider the other candidate in this instance. IMO.

 

[Juxta Position]

Everyone here is way over analyzing empty net points. Last year we all thought it would be a tight race and most leaned towards Kuch. MacKinnon won in dominating fashion and his multiple 30+ point 19 game point streaks had a lot to do with it.

He had Makar (90) and Rantanen (104) last season too. If anything, losing Rantanen this season should give MacKinnon more votes.

Leon obviously has McDavid "only" which IMO will always be held against him, but Matthews won the Hart with 60-46 being 17 points behind McDavid. That year IMO McDavid/Leon cancelled each other out and Matthews won pretty convincingly.

Going off that all, I think Kuch may sneak away with it this year. Its pretty balanced after him for Tampa and obviously he is the common denominator.

So my vote today goes for MacKinnon, then Kuch, then Makar.

I really think the 60-60 argument for Leon is big, but same can be said for Makar if hits 30-70, or even 35-70 which is very possible. 100 points for a dman is massive

I love how you put so much time and effort in to your posts when really all you need to say is, "I wouldn't vote for Leon because Oilers." We all know that's the reason; no need to try and fancy up your posts.

 

[benfranklin]

I love how you put so much time and effort in to your posts when really all you need to say is, "I wouldn't vote for Leon because Oilers." We all know that's the reason; no need to try and fancy up your posts.

Its not just me. Why didnt McDavid win in 21-22? Humor me. Then tell me how this year is different.

 

[Galactico]

He’s been far better than McDavid apart from tonight. And Makar has been just as valuable to the Avs as McDavid has been to the oilers too if you want to play that silly game.
Drai also has way more goals than MacKinnon so he’ll likely win the hart if their point totals are close because that’s how voters of swayed historically. Matthews won the Hart in 2022 despite being 15 points behind McDavid. If Drai gets 60 goals it’s very unlikely MacKinnon gets the Hart even if MacKinnon has 5-10 more points.

Lol put MacKinnon with McDavid and he would be tearing up the league even more with at least 20 more points than what he has now. Anybody saying the opposite is lying to himself.

And likewise, Draisaitl would have at least 15-20 less points playing away from McDavid.

 

[Sentinel]

I hope it's Kucherov. Should have had one last year maybe some writers will want to make it up to him.

 

[bossram]

If Drai still leads by a 20 goal margin while being within 10 points then it should be him hands down imo. They both do more than what the stat sheet can show but goals are the name of the game in hockey and that’s too substantial of a lead to consider the other candidate in this instance. IMO.

Yep. 20ish goal margin is big.

Also the fact that McDavid has not been at a superhuman level this season. He's kind on par or below the level of other superstars right now. Leon really has carried them.

Mack has been fantastic of course, but with Makar certain to win the Norris at this point, the teammmate factor hurts him a touch.

 

[Son Goku]

Crazy how we see all these names and not Mcdavid’s anymore. Connor fell off?

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

Its not just me. Why didnt McDavid win in 21-22? Humor me. Then tell me how this year is different.

That was from voting fatigue for McDavid and Matthews having an incredible season of goal scoring + defensive hockey.

There is not voting fatigue for Drai, and he is having a better version of Matthews 2022 season.

 

[zar]

Everyone here is way over analyzing empty net points. Last year we all thought it would be a tight race and most leaned towards Kuch. MacKinnon won in dominating fashion and his multiple 30+ point 19 game point streaks had a lot to do with it.

He had Makar (90) and Rantanen (104) last season too. If anything, losing Rantanen this season should give MacKinnon more votes.

Leon obviously has McDavid "only" which IMO will always be held against him, but Matthews won the Hart with 60-46 being 17 points behind McDavid. That year IMO McDavid/Leon cancelled each other out and Matthews won pretty convincingly.

Going off that all, I think Kuch may sneak away with it this year. Its pretty balanced after him for Tampa and obviously he is the common denominator.

So my vote today goes for MacKinnon, then Kuch, then Makar.

I really think the 60-60 argument for Leon is big, but same can be said for Makar if hits 30-70, or even 35-70 which is very possible. 100 points for a dman is massive

If McDavid is that much a factor over a player like Makar then McDavid deserves the Hart until people stop believing it. I don’t believe the factor is as much as people think.

If Drai has 10 more goals than the next highest goal scorer in the league and is anywhere close, points wise, there is zero reason why he isn’t the Hart trophy winner.

At this point, so far in this season, Drai is a slam dunk.

 

[Regal]

Its not just me. Why didnt McDavid win in 21-22? Humor me. Then tell me how this year is different.

McDavid didn’t win due to a multitude of factors:

-He was much better the year before, so it was seen as a somewhat disappointing season by his standards
-Matthews scored 60 goals, which hadn’t been hit in 10 years, including an unofficial 50 in 50
-Matthews was seen as the better defensive player, getting decent Selke support
-Matthews was barely behind in terms of points per game (1.54 to 1.47)

So, with the goals added in, Matthews was seen as having similar or better offensive production, which, combined with being better defensively, is why he also won the Pearson

Ultimately, the Hart mostly goes to who is deemed the best player or who has the most outstanding season. It’s actually pretty rare that relative value comes into it and is usually because the actual best player missed the playoffs, like in Hall’s year. How good their closest teammate is seems to be brought up in fan voting a lot more than by the actual voters. McDavid didn’t stop Draisaitl from winning in 19-20 despite having a better season. And considering Makar is having a better year than McDavid as well, it makes no sense to factor it in. With MacKinnon having won last year and both teams being in similar positions, it will mostly come down to who the voters think is better. And Draisaitl’s goal scoring will probably factor into that the most.

 

[benfranklin]

McDavid didn’t win due to a multitude of factors:

-He was much better the year before, so it was seen as a somewhat disappointing season by his standards
-Matthews scored 60 goals, which hadn’t been hit in 10 years, including an unofficial 50 in 50
-Matthews was seen as the better defensive player, getting decent Selke support
-Matthews was barely behind in terms of points per game (1.54 to 1.47)

So, with the goals added in, Matthews was seen as having similar or better offensive production, which, combined with being better defensively, is why he also won the Pearson

Ultimately, the Hart mostly goes to who is deemed the best player or who has the most outstanding season. It’s actually pretty rare that relative value comes into it and is usually because the actual best player missed the playoffs, like in Hall’s year. How good their closest teammate is seems to be brought up in fan voting a lot more than by the actual voters. McDavid didn’t stop Draisaitl from winning in 19-20 despite having a better season. And considering Makar is having a better year than McDavid as well, it makes no sense to factor it in. With MacKinnon having won last year and both teams being in similar positions, it will mostly come down to who the voters think is better. And Draisaitl’s goal scoring will probably factor into that the most.

Finally a solid post. Thank you.

I obviously contribute the 60+ to McDavid doing the legwork and Leon sitting in his office ripping onsies, where MacKinnon had to drag his team through Georgiev's garbage, lost Rantanen, and has been putting up big boy numbers still without him. Also it shouldnt matter, but he does have the 4 Nations mvp, which some voters will use for Canadian pride.

 

[34]

Not a chance

MacKinnon >>>>>>>>>>>> Draisaitl

AINEC