Is Connor Mcdavid a "tier above" Sidney Crosby as a player?

[admiralcadillac]

It’s still only half a season. A couple years before that, he was pacing for 143 after his first 47 games. After that, his pace dropped by 33% and he landed at 120 when it was all said and done.

lol it all you want, but this dynamic comes up every single season with a wide range of players. Being on pace for 100 points at Christmas does not carry the same value as finishing with 100 points in April.

It’s not worth reading your posts when you keep shifting your goalposts.

Why say 22 games when you know full well it’s more? I don’t even care at this point but it makes your posts weird.

 

[pi314]

It’s not worth reading your posts when you keep shifting your goalposts.

Why say 22 games when you know full well its more? I don’t even care at this point but it makes your posts weird.

Jealous that his guy didn’t win.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I believe the point of the game is to win.

Points are your false god.

They don’t tell the whole story of winning and losing.

You over value points… in a higher scoring era… and undervalue the thing that actually matters.

What is your point exactly? It feels like you’re suggesting that mcdavid isn’t a good enough player to be on a cup winning team like Crosby was

Crosby does things that help his team win while mcdavid only does good things when it doesn’t matter therefore….?

Maybe you could concisely state what your point is with all of this “point of the game is to win” talk

 

[Hockey Outsider]

So you’re saying it doesn’t make sense that in his prime he wouldn’t go from 120 to 130 points, only regress to 110? These posts are making less sense every word.

That's not what I said.

My point was - when we look at Crosby's per-game production in each season, normalized for the scoring environment, there are three very clear spikes - 2011, 2012 and 2013.

These are the only three years where he approached peak McDavid-level production. You have a clear drop-off to his next best seasons (such as 2007, 2014, and a few others).

We need to question if Crosby could have maintained that type of production across these seasons. My position is he probably wouldn't have been able to - he only played 99 games across those three seasons, and as I showed early, the "advanced" stats suggest that it was unsustainable.

We need to further question if those numbers are sustainable specifically because Crosby, in the two full seasons immediately before and immediately after those three shortened seasons scored at a substantially lower pace. I don't buy the excuse that he was no longer in his prime. Crosby is arguably the #5 player all-time, but he wasn't in his prime at ages 21, 22, 26 and 27? Sorry, but that's complete nonsense.

You're suggesting that Crosby could have hit 130 points, because he already had a season with 120. That's not a valid comparison, because the league was much higher scoring the year he reached 120 points (2007) compared to the early 2010's. Adjusting for the scoring environment, Crosby was much more productive in 2011-13 than he was in 2007. That's why the "he only needed 10 more points" argument fails - it's an apples-to-oranges comparison that ignores how favourable the scoring environment was in the year he reached 120.

Like I said, I still rank Crosby higher than McDavid. At the same time, we can't turn a blind eye to the reality that he never played close to 82 games during any of his three best "pace" years. I don't see how that statement is controversial.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Crosby is arguably the #5 player all-time, but he wasn't in his prime at ages 21, 22, 26 and 27? Sorry, but that's complete nonsense.

Couldn't his 23-25-year-old seasons have been his peak? Similar to how Ovechkin's peak was between 2007-2010, but he still had very good seasons before and after.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Oilers have never brought in a player of the caliber of Kessel onto the team...just McDavid turning 2nd liners like Hyman into 50-goal scorers...

Hyman regularly played on the top line as well in Toronto. Guy was an up and coming talent destined for top line production somewhere. Trying to pretend like Hyman and Kessel aren’t on the same tier is funny.

perhaps it's just McDavid elevating his teammates like the Superstar he is

Yeah, he’s a superstar. So is Crosby.

they didn't "play regularly" on the same line the past couple years...false

Well they did, just not as much now that McDavid has 1st line players like Hyman, Kane, and Perry.

Kunitz had multiple 20 goal seasons prior to arriving in Pittsburgh, including a 60 point campaign

he wasn't some scrub 3rd liner

And Perry was a Rocket Richard winner before joining Edmonton. And Kane was one of the best power forward in the league. Look at all the top line talent McDavid has been handed



It’s just soooooo funny

 

[Felidae]

Hyman regularly played on the top line as well in Toronto. Guy was an up and coming talent destined for top line production somewhere. Trying to pretend like Hyman and Kessel aren’t on the same tier is funny.

Yeah, he’s a superstar. So is Crosby.

Well they did, just not as much now that McDavid has 1st line players like Hyman, Kane, and Perry.


And Perry was a Rocket Richard winner before joining Edmonton. And Kane was one of the best power forward in the league. Look at all the top line talent McDavid has been handed



It’s just soooooo funny

I agree with you Hyman was a solid first liner before going to Edmonton. His last 2 seasons as a Maple leaf, his GPG was nearly identical to his first 2 seasons in Edmonton. So I don't really buy the narrative that he's completely a product of McDavid

That being said, I'm gonna have to disagree with you that Kessel and Hyman were on the same tier.

Kessel was a much better playmaker, resulting in better overall production (4 top 10 point finishes to Hyman's 0)

Kessel could drive a line, Hyman hasn't shown the ability to do the same.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It’s not worth reading your posts when you keep shifting your goalposts.

Why say 22 games when you know full well its more? I don’t even care at this point but it makes your posts weird.

I’m not the one being weird here, friend. Nobody’s putting a gun to your head and forcing to you read my posts. Feel free to avail yourself of the “ignore” button if ordinary conversation makes you uncomfortable.

I told you up front that I didn’t see your comment at the time, and had just written a long post responding to points about the 22 game season, so that’s where my mind was. You clarified that you were talking about the 41-game season, so I replied by addressing that one instead. Nothing is “weird” about that, it’s just a dialogue.

Jealous that his guy didn’t win.

How in the world is McDavid “my guy”? What connection do you think I have to either of the players we’re talking about?

Please reference my post history from a few years ago advocating for Crosby as a serious contender for the best player outside the Big 4. At present, McDavid has a very real chance of surpassing him, making it a Big 5. Neither of them are “my guy”, I’m just telling you what I see.

 

[daver]

For the "he didn't do it over a full season" crowd:

Thoughts on Crosby's completely cherry-picked best stretch of hockey

When from #2 to 10 Crosby separation was higher ? If so why ? For what interest us, Hockey Reference not being interested in scoring distribution can be a significant flaw and that can change fast, 05-06 and 06-07 was a different league than the 2011 league which was different than the 2021...

forums.hfboards.com

It is as disingenuous to not give Crosby's 2011 season and his 2013 season any consideration as it is to point to the # of Cups won for Crosby as the be all, end all.

McDavid played 15 more games in 20/21 and gets full credit for that season vs. no credit for Crosby's 2011 season.

Crosby was lapping the field again in 2013.

It is reasonable to believe he wins the Ross and the Rocket in 10/11 and the Ross in 2013 in a fashion that sets him apart from every player except McDavid and Jagr in the post Mario/Wayne era.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

For the "he didn't do it over a full season" crowd:

Thoughts on Crosby's completely cherry-picked best stretch of hockey

When from #2 to 10 Crosby separation was higher ? If so why ? For what interest us, Hockey Reference not being interested in scoring distribution can be a significant flaw and that can change fast, 05-06 and 06-07 was a different league than the 2011 league which was different than the 2021...

forums.hfboards.com

It is as disingenuous to not give Crosby's 2011 season and his 2013 season any consideration as it is to point to the # of Cups won for Crosby as the be all, end all.

McDavid played 15 more games in 20/21 and gets full credit for that season vs. no credit for Crosby's 2011 season.

Crosby was lapping the field again in 2013.

It is reasonable to believe he wins the Ross and the Rocket in 10/11 and the Ross in 2013 in a fashion that sets him apart from every player except McDavid and Jagr in the post Mario/Wayne era.

Anybody have any data on how long it took for Crosby to get passed after he got concussed that season? He stayed on top of the leaderboard for weeks after playing his last game, and was only passed by a couple players in the final month.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

I agree with you Hyman was a solid first liner before going to Edmonton. His last 2 seasons as a Maple leaf, his GPG was nearly identical to his first 2 seasons in Edmonton. So I don't really buy the narrative that he's completely a product of McDavid

That being said, I'm gonna have to disagree with you that Kessel and Hyman were on the same tier.

Kessel was a much better playmaker, resulting in better overall production (4 top 10 point finishes to Hyman's 0)

Kessel could drive a line, Hyman hasn't shown the ability to do the same.

I meant the version of Kessel the penguins received. They didn’t get up and coming Bruins Kessel, and they didn’t get the early leafs version either. He was extremely effective still when he joined the penguins though, and fit well with Malkin. Appreciate your viewpoint though.

The post was mainly hyperbole for all the people claiming that Crosby had all these first line guys in their prime on his team. Outside of Hossa for a handful of games, Crosby has mostly played with players who were on the 2nd and 3rd lines on other teams before joining. Kessel played with Malkin, Guerin was 40, Neal played with Malkin, Dupuis put up 15p, 5p, and 1p the three seasons before and averaged 20 PPG before joining, Kunitz was reduced to 3rd line minutes after failing to remain a good fit on Perry-Getzlaf’s wing.

If we want to do revisionist history and act like Penguins got 2007 version of Kunitz and 2003 version of Dupuis before Crosby had joined the league, and that version of Kessel that Burke emptied the cupboards for, and then also act like they played together, then what are we even doing here? Like of course those conversations are going to get heated responses.

 

[bobholly39]

It’s still only half a season. A couple years before that, he was pacing for 143 after his first 47 games. After that, his pace dropped by 33% and he landed at 120 when it was all said and done.

lol it all you want, but this dynamic comes up every single season with a wide range of players. Being on pace for 100 points at Christmas does not carry the same value as finishing with 100 points in April.

Crosby had stronger 2nd half's to his season in both 2008-2009, and 2009-2010.

In 2006-2007 and 2013-2014, it's the opposite, stronger first half.

So - it's just as likely Crosby could have half a stronger 2nd half in 2011 vs a weaker one. He had done that 2 straight years.

I dont get the people who say "his pace is not sustainable". Why? This is Sidney Crosby at his peak - one of the best players of all time. If he had played 82 games in 2011 - it's possible he doesn't finish at exactly 132 points he was pacing for. It's possible he instead does less and hits ~115 or 120. But flipside is it's very possible he actually improves and hits 140 too.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Crosby had stronger 2nd half's to his season in both 2008-2009, and 2009-2010.

In 2006-2007 and 2013-2014, it's the opposite, stronger first half.

So - it's just as likely Crosby could have half a stronger 2nd half in 2011 vs a weaker one. He had done that 2 straight years.

I dont get the people who say "his pace is not sustainable". Why? This is Sidney Crosby at his peak - one of the best players of all time. If he had played 82 games in 2011 - it's possible he doesn't finish at exactly 132 points he was pacing for. It's possible he instead does less and hits ~115 or 120. But flipside is it's very possible he actually improves and hits 140 too.

I agree, but with a coin-flip’s chance of happening, it’s not valid to project it forward as equal to McDavid actually doing it in real life. It’s just a speculation that it might have happened, maybe, if nothing else went wrong at all.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Lemieux may have broke the goals and points per season record in 92-93

 

[bobholly39]

I agree, but with a coin-flip’s chance of happening, it’s not valid to project it forward as equal to McDavid actually doing it in real life. It’s just a speculation that it might have happened, maybe, if nothing else went wrong at all.

Oh I agree

McDavid definitely gets more credit for actually doing it in a full year. But the post I responded to was talking about a hypothetical and what Crosby might have done and so i responded

 

[bobholly39]

Lemieux may have broke the goals and points per season record in 92-93

If Lemieux had been 100% healthy from 1990 to 1994 (5 years) - I'd say:

~75-90% chance he breaks either the goal or point record

~25-50% chance he breaks both

And I'm looking at that full 5 year stretch - not just 1993 alone.

I know Lemieux's 93 season looks spectacular - and it is. But if he had been fully healthy in those years I'd say he has at least 1 or 2 more seasons of ~180+ points and ~80+goals. Whether he actually surpasses 92 and 215 - who knows, maybe.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Edmonton has a good team.

all I gotta say is Sidney Crosby has to be the luckiest SOB to constantly end up on good teams his whole life, because he’s basically won at every level…. Dude must be blessed to have landed on so many championship caliber teams.

He's from Canada.

His NHL team drafted Evgeny Malkin, the 3rd best player of the generation, whom he's never had much NHL team success without.

It's not some wild set of coincidences.

 

[Video Nasty]

For the "he didn't do it over a full season" crowd:

Thoughts on Crosby's completely cherry-picked best stretch of hockey

When from #2 to 10 Crosby separation was higher ? If so why ? For what interest us, Hockey Reference not being interested in scoring distribution can be a significant flaw and that can change fast, 05-06 and 06-07 was a different league than the 2011 league which was different than the 2021...

forums.hfboards.com

It is as disingenuous to not give Crosby's 2011 season and his 2013 season any consideration as it is to point to the # of Cups won for Crosby as the be all, end all.

McDavid played 15 more games in 20/21 and gets full credit for that season vs. no credit for Crosby's 2011 season.

Crosby was lapping the field again in 2013.

It is reasonable to believe he wins the Ross and the Rocket in 10/11 and the Ross in 2013 in a fashion that sets him apart from every player except McDavid and Jagr in the post Mario/Wayne era.

Key difference.

McDavid played 100% of the schedule, still scored over 100 points with 26 games lopped off the schedule which is a total few believed possible going into the season, and won the scoring race by 21 points over his own teammate and by 36 over the closest non-teammate. 15 more games in this case is still 35% more than Crosby managed to scrape, who had 47% more available games provided to him at the outset.

Crosby played 50% of the schedule. The End.

Crosby gets some consideration because he’s Crosby, but not everyone is willing to pretend that something that didn’t happen did actually occur. I would give him complete benefit of the doubt with the 2010-2011 through 2012-2013 stretch, if he had not lost 2008-2009, 2009-2010, 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 clean, or if he didn’t have so many examples of his high PPG never really making it beyond 50-60 games of a season.

If he won even one, let alone two of those years, I still wouldn’t pretend that he would have 130-150 points, but I’d spend a heck of a lot less time talking about people flying to Neverland.

McDavid won 2 more Art Rosses, scored 153 points, and got to 100 assists while posting 42 points in a playoff run while injured the whole season since that 2020-2021 masterpiece. He has more than validated his performance in those 56 games with what came after. If the three seasons since were a little more “ordinary”, where he won up to one more scoring title, scored 120 or less in each of them, then yeah, I would have a problem projecting out 150 points. The guy saved us the trouble and repeated his performance.

Crosby never really did that as an individual after that three season stretch.

 

[Midnight Judges]

It is as disingenuous to not give Crosby's 2011 season and his 2013 season any consideration as it is to point to the # of Cups won for Crosby as the be all, end all.

McDavid played 15 more games in 20/21 and gets full credit for that season vs. no credit for Crosby's 2011 season.

You should quote whomever said that and reply to them.

Of course, you didn't - because nobody actually said what you're saying people said.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Hyman regularly played on the top line as well in Toronto. Guy was an up and coming talent destined for top line production somewhere. Trying to pretend like Hyman and Kessel aren’t on the same tier is funny.

Zach Hyman's career high in goals and point before coming to Edmonton was 41...Kessel's was 82
pretending they're on the same tier is hilarious

Yeah, he’s a superstar. So is Crosby.

didn't say Crosby wasn't

Well they did, just not as much now that McDavid has 1st line players like Hyman, Kane, and Perry.

did you just call 40-year old Corey Perry a "1st liner"? LMAO

And Perry was a Rocket Richard winner before joining Edmonton. And Kane was one of the best power forward in the league. Look at all the top line talent McDavid has been handed



It’s just soooooo funny

yes they have more depth now...but McDavid was winning scoring titles with Pat Maroon, Alex Chiasson and Ty Rattie on his wings
you using a washed Corey Perry has evidence of "depth" is certainly something

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Let’s take a look at how Crosby himself fared throughout his career when he was relevant in scoring races.

You can hold me if you like. It’s always unpleasant when the curtain is lifted from your childhood hero and the myth that holds little basis in reality gets deconstructed.

2006-2007

95 points in first 56 games (1.70 PPG)
25 points in final 23 games (1.09 PPG)

2007-2008

40 points in first 27 games (1.48 PPG)
23 points in next 18 games before injury (1.28 PPG)

2008-2009

50 points in first 40 games (1.25 PPG)
53 points in final 37 games (1.43 PPG)

2009-2010

48 points in first 43 games (1.12 PPG)
61 points in final 38 games (1.61 PPG)

As noted before, he had 15 points in his first 13 games of 2010-2011 and 12 points in his first 8 games of 2011-2012, which are a bit off from the 76 in 42 that he had collectively at the other points of those two seasons.

2012-2013

45 points in first 26 games (1.73 PPG)
11 points in final 9 games (1.22 PPG) before getting knocked out a minute into game 36 and missing final 12 (1.10 PPG)

2013-2014

66 points in first 46 games (1.44 PPG)
38 points in final 34 games (1.12 PPG)

2014-2015

50 points in first 40 games (1.25 PPG)
34 points in final 37 games (0.92 PPG)

2015-2016

19 points in first 30 games (0.63 PPG)
66 points in final 50 games (1.32 PPG)

2016-2017

54 points in first 40 games (1.35 PPG)
35 points in final 35 games (1.00 PPG)

There we have it. In general, the guy could never really put together two complete electric halves of a season. He has a couple of instances where he had a pretty good 2/3rds of a season run, whether it was the first 2/3rds or the last 2/3rds, but there is almost no evidence that he could run it front to back like McDavid has proven constantly.

As expected from a notorious Crosby hater, those splits are completely biased and have been created out of generational cherry-picking. Here are what Crosby’s actual seasons, split in objective halves, look like.

2006-2007 (79 games)

40GP 21G 45A 66PTS 1,65PPG
39GP 15G 39A 54PTS 1,38PPG

2007-2008 (53 games)

39GP 16G 37A 53PTS 1,36PPG
15GP 8G 12A 20PTS 1,33PPG

(Since Crosby missed a lot of games in the 2nd half, the halves are separated between 2007 and 2008.)

2008-2009 (77 games)

38GP 15G 35A 50PTS 1,32PPG
39GP 18G 35A 53PTS 1,36PPG

2009-2010 (81 games)

40GP 23G 25A 48PTS 1,20PPG
41GP 28G 33A 61PTS 1,49PPG

2010-2011 (41 games)

41GP 32G 34A 66PTS 1,61PPG

2011-2012 (22 games)

8GP 2G 10A 12PTS 1,50PPG
14GP 6G 19A 25PTS 1,79PPG

2012-2013 (48 games)

24GP 11G 28A 39PTS 1,63PPG
12GP 4G 13A 17PTS 1,42PPG

(Crosby had a 3-point game in game 24, which would make the splits 1,57 vs 1,54 after game 23)

2013-2014 (80 games)

40GP 21G 34A 55PTS 1,375PPG
40GP 15G 34A 49PTS 1,225PPG

2014-2015 (77 games)

38GP 12G 32A 44PTS 1,16PPG
39GP 16G 24A 40PTS 1,03PPG

(Crosby had the mumps in the 2nd half of the season)

2015-2016 (80 games)

40GP 12G 19A 31PTS 0,78PPG
40GP 24G 30A 54PTS 1,35PPG

(Mike Johnston experiment failed miserably. MJ tries to completely change the system by trying to make Malkin and Crosby play like robots while removing all of their creativity, and making them play a more defensive oriented system. There’s a reason he couldn’t get another coaching job in the NHL. As soon as Sullivan jumped in, Crosby’s production started to get back to what it was in the prior years.)

2016-2017 (75 games)

35GP 26G 19A 45PTS 1,29PPG
40GP 18G 26A 44PTS 1,10PPG

Some observations:

• Between 2007 and 2017, in the 7 seasons Crosby was relatively healthy (>75% of games played), his points-per-game rate dropped in the 2nd half of the season in 4 of the 7 seasons (57%).
• Crosby has never suffered from more than a 0,15 performance dip in the 2nd half of a healthy season between age 20 and age 29. The only time his PPG had a variance of more than -0,15 between two halves before his age 29 season was in his sophomore season when he went from 1,65 to 1,38.
• Crosby had a stretch from the end of 2008 to the start of 2015, which is basically 6 full years, of 475 pts in 340 games, good for 1,40 PPG. 1,40 PPG was 0,28 more than the next non-teammate, which was Ovechkin with 1,12, followed by Stamkos at 1,09, Sedin at 1,04 and St. Louis at 1,04.
• From 2006 to 2013 (8 years), Crosby never had a season half where he produced below a 1,20 PPG clip and only once under a 1,30 PPG clip (first half of 2009-2010, which can be explained by the cup hangover). That 8 year span was from age 18 to age 25, which is normally a superstar forward’s prime seasons (Malkin had his best seasons at 21, 22 and 25, Ovechkin had his best seasons at 22, 23 and 24 and McDavid had his best seasons at 23 and 25.)

Conclusion:

• It would be simply disingenuous to assume that Crosby would have played the 2nd half of 2011 producing below a 1,30 PPG rate, something that had happened only ONCE (1/13) after his rookie season. The same story applies for 2012 and 2013. If you use that minimum threshold of 1,30, that puts his totals at 119 pts for 2011, 115 for 2012 and 72 in 2013, prorated to 116 for a 82 game season. Those should be considered very conservative projections for Crosby’s season totals had he played in all 82 games given that they don’t take into consideration that those seasons are usually prime years for superstar forwards and the fact that in almost all cases before 2017, Crosby’s per game production had not dropped more than 0,15 points-per-game in the 2nd half of a given season.

 

[ClydeLee]

Back in 2015 hockey fans were victimized by fans who hated Sidney Crosby with nonsensical reasons why Jonathan toews was equal to or arguably better than Sidney Crosby

Things like
Leadership
Being a born winner
Clutch ability
Elevating teammates

And other non tangible hockey skills. A meme was born , “Toews intangibles”

Now these same penguin fans, along with fans who hate and or are jealous of McDavid, are trying to use the same nonsensical reasons on the rest of the hockey world

Just like the toews conversations look silly today, these conversations will look silly 3,4,5 years from now

Mainly people were saying defense and people said that's not measurable.

Then jokingly intangiblez was always thrown out.

Again, Crosby wasn't ALWAYS there with defense but he did evolve and get great there. It was always people scoffing at them that called those points intangible.

 

[Video Nasty]

As expected from a notorious Crosby hater, those splits are completely biased and have been created out of generational cherry-picking. Here are what Crosby’s actual seasons, split in objective halves, look like.

2006-2007 (79 games)

40GP 21G 45A 66PTS 1,65PPG
39GP 15G 39A 54PTS 1,38PPG

2007-2008 (53 games)

39GP 16G 37A 53PTS 1,36PPG
15GP 8G 12A 20PTS 1,33PPG

(Since Crosby missed a lot of games in the 2nd half, the halves are separated between 2007 and 2008.)

2008-2009 (77 games)

38GP 15G 35A 50PTS 1,32PPG
39GP 18G 35A 53PTS 1,36PPG

2009-2010 (81 games)

40GP 23G 25A 48PTS 1,20PPG
41GP 28G 33A 61PTS 1,49PPG

2010-2011 (41 games)

41GP 32G 34A 66PTS 1,61PPG

2011-2012 (22 games)

8GP 2G 10A 12PTS 1,50PPG
14GP 6G 19A 25PTS 1,79PPG

2012-2013 (48 games)

24GP 11G 28A 39PTS 1,63PPG
12GP 4G 13A 17PTS 1,42PPG

(Crosby had a 3-point game in game 24, which would make the splits 1,57 vs 1,54 after game 23)

2013-2014 (80 games)

40GP 21G 34A 55PTS 1,375PPG
40GP 15G 34A 49PTS 1,225PPG

2014-2015 (77 games)

38GP 12G 32A 44PTS 1,16PPG
39GP 16G 24A 40PTS 1,03PPG

(Crosby had the mumps in the 2nd half of the season)

2015-2016 (80 games)

40GP 12G 19A 31PTS 0,78PPG
40GP 24G 30A 54PTS 1,35PPG

(Mike Johnston experiment failed miserably. MJ tries to completely change the system by trying to make Malkin and Crosby play like robots while removing all of their creativity, and making them play a more defensive oriented system. There’s a reason he couldn’t get another coaching job in the NHL. As soon as Sullivan jumped in, Crosby’s production started to get back to what it was in the prior years.)

2016-2017 (75 games)

35GP 26G 19A 45PTS 1,29PPG
40GP 18G 26A 44PTS 1,10PPG

Some observations:

• Between 2007 and 2017, in the 7 seasons Crosby was relatively healthy (>75% of games played), his points-per-game rate dropped in the 2nd half of the season in 4 of the 7 seasons (57%).
• Crosby has never suffered from more than a 0,15 performance dip in the 2nd half of a healthy season between age 20 and age 29. The only time his PPG had a variance of more than -0,15 between two halves before his age 29 season was in his sophomore season when he went from 1,65 to 1,38.
• Crosby had a stretch from the end of 2008 to the start of 2015, which is basically 6 full years, of 475 pts in 340 games, good for 1,40 PPG. 1,40 PPG was 0,28 more than the next non-teammate, which was Ovechkin with 1,12, followed by Stamkos at 1,09, Sedin at 1,04 and St. Louis at 1,04.
• From 2006 to 2013 (8 years), Crosby never had a season half where he produced below a 1,20 PPG clip and only once under a 1,30 PPG clip (first half of 2009-2010, which can be explained by the cup hangover). That 8 year span was from age 18 to age 25, which is normally a superstar forward’s prime seasons (Malkin had his best seasons at 21, 22 and 25, Ovechkin had his best seasons at 22, 23 and 24 and McDavid had his best seasons at 23 and 25.)

Conclusion:

• It would be simply disingenuous to assume that Crosby would have played the 2nd half of 2011 producing below a 1,30 PPG rate, something that had happened only ONCE (1/13) after his rookie season. The same story applies for 2012 and 2013. If you use that minimum threshold of 1,30, that puts his totals at 119 pts for 2011, 115 for 2012 and 72 in 2013, prorated to 116 for a 82 game season. Those should be considered very conservative projections for Crosby’s season totals had he played in all 82 games given that they don’t take into consideration that those seasons are usually prime years for superstar forwards and the fact that in almost all cases before 2017, Crosby’s per game production had not dropped more than 0,15 points-per-game in the 2nd half of a given season.

I appreciate your work and I didn’t just skim over it. My intent was to demonstrate that Crosby couldn’t run it from front to back over an entire contained season. He topped out at an extremely high PPG at around the 55-60 game mark a couple of times (whether it was from the start or to the end of the season). He had an easily seen pattern of never finishing the job at quite the same high level. An equivalent that I’d like to bring up is that McDavid had 42 points in his first 22 games following the 105 in 56 game season. He finished with 81 points in his final 58 games. He opened up the discussion that perhaps that was an unattainable hot streak that he couldn’t repeat. Then he went out and dropped 153 over a full normal season. He proved it was no fluke. That was my intent.

My other intent, as always, is that pace is worthless, unless you’re Gretzky, Lemieux, and to a lesser degree, McDavid. Crosby had 45 points in 26 games in 2012-2013. If his season ended 10 games earlier, you and the pace preachers would have us believe he would have 62 points through 36 games and have actually won the Art Ross, despite the 12 missed games, rather than the reality of 56 points and tying for third place.

I have little doubt Crosby would have had 115-120 points in 2010-2011 and 2012-2013, if he played 80+ games. I can be persuaded that he might have topped out at 130 once. I also think it’s reasonable to expect 1.3 PPG for the second half of 2010-2011, which puts him just under 120. In the past, I’ve said that he seems poised to have collected phantom hardware in both 2010-2011 and 2012-2013, but I really dislike these trophies being awarded as if he actually won them. 2011-2012 is a mystery to me because it was 22 fractured games, and he had a history of losing sure things before and after this time period.

Crosby hater? I don’t know about that. A hater wouldn’t have him at #5 or #6 all-time. The push back against exaggerations and unwillingness for people to allow McDavid to supplant him is what you’re misdiagnosing as hate though.

 

[Regal]

Lemieux may have broke the goals and points per season record in 92-93

He might have as he did have the talent. I think Lemieux/Gretzky is a somewhat similar comp in that Lemieux did enough to suggest they weren’t on different levels of ability, but Gretzky was better even when accounting for paces in smaller samples and also proved it over full seasons. I think once McDavid wins a cup and has a full career it’ll be a similar situation where it’s pretty hard to argue against him just as it’s hard to argue against Gretzky. It’s already hard to argue against their best full seasons here.

 

[Voight]

Edmonton has a good team.

all I gotta say is Sidney Crosby has to be the luckiest SOB to constantly end up on good teams his whole life, because he’s basically won at every level…. Dude must be blessed to have landed on so many championship caliber teams.

I mean, being born in Nova Scotia instead of Vermont certainly helped him. In all likelihood had he been American the only international championship he would've won is the 2004 WJC.