Interesting Marner note

[thewave]

Yeah this was reported after Marner signed and the Dubas propaganda outlets in Toronto went into overdrive to use it to rationalize the unprecedented dramatic overpayment.

Actual numbers are never discussed though. It was almost assuredly the two first round pick compensation, which would be lower than what Dubas signed him for anyways.

Marner's agent likely went to various teams like Columbus and said "make us an offer and we'll consider it". They were almost assuredly SIGNIFICANTLY lower than what Dubas overpaid, but they used it as leverage. "We're considering offer sheets.... just saying..." A veteran GM would have laughed it off. But we had a rookie who self described himself as "learning as he goes".

What you really mean to say is that Marners team friendly deal allowed for us to sign Malgin the other day. We owe a debt of gratitude to him and his agent.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are you going on record as saying that basically the entire hockey universe didn't regard Nylander and Marner as overpays?

I frankly don't care what some uninformed people thought. It's just a fact, based on the history of post-ELC contracts - Matthews, Marner, and Nylander were not overpaid.

The cap doesn't go up during recession.

That's not true. Not only were we in no way guaranteed or even likely to hit a recession, but even in the event we entered one, the cap was still projected to rise. And it rose during the last recession, which was a much bigger recession than anything we would have experienced now.

they did a CBA and clawed back the cap just a few years prior to the Nonis stint. Remember?

I remember when they changed the split to 50/50, and it changed the cap calculation, but teams never saw a practical decrease of the cap because the NHL let teams spend well above the cap the one year it was supposed to be lower - not to mention the get out of jail free cards they handed out. But I'm not sure why this is relevant, since there was no interest from either side to change the split in any upcoming CBA negotiations.

 

[ToneDog]

Kutch, Ranta, Gaudreau, Point all make 1.5m less than Marner. How can whether Marner is overpaid still be debatable ? Would not be as bad if JT was playing like an $11m player instead of an $8m player.

 

[Legion34]

The offersheet threat for Marner was a load of bologna. Was Columbus really going to give up four unprotected 1st rounders as a team that looked ready to slide down the standings, while also having to overpay quite a bit on the caphit side, to obtain Marner? Was Marner really going to leave his hometown Leafs, a team that looked like it would be a legit contender for the next 5+ years, to go live in... Columbus Ohio, and play for a declining team, all to get an extra million or so on his caphit? He makes that up in endorsements by being a Maple Leaf, so he doesn't even make extra money by doing that unless the caphit is multiple millions higher.

Offersheets for top RFAs are not a real threat IMO. They're a MUCH more real threat for a guy like Sandin. If Sandin signs an offersheet for 2.5-3M, the compensation is garbage (a 2nd round pick) but we would have a really tough time matching. 2nd round pick compensation actually goes all the way up to 4.1M, so if a team REALLY wanted Sandin and offered him 3.5-4M, we still would only get a 2nd back as compensation, and would have an even tougher time keeping him.

Well would you rather their 4 1sts or Marner if you are them

 

[Dekes For Days]

Actual numbers are never discussed though. It was almost assuredly the two first round pick compensation, which would be lower than what Dubas signed him for anyways.

I believe ~13m x 7 was speculated at one point, but I'm not sure how verified that was. Either way, based on what was reported, the only real logical conclusion would have been that it was in the four 1st range. The reports were that Columbus wanted high term, and believed that Leafs would just trade Nylander to match.

Not only is it a complete waste of time and unrealistic to offer sheet a Marner-level player on a big term for less than the four 1st compensation amount, but if Columbus was offering a cap hit less than what Marner got (which we fit without trading Nylander), there would have been no reason for Columbus to discuss us trading Nylander in order to fit it in.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I believe ~13m x 7 was speculated at one point, but I'm not sure how verified that was. Either way, based on what was reported, the only real logical conclusion would have been that it was in the four 1st range. The reports were that Columbus wanted high term, and believed that Leafs would just trade Nylander to match.

Not only is it a complete waste of time and unrealistic to offer sheet a Marner-level player on a big term for less than the four 1st compensation amount, but if Columbus was offering a cap hit less than what Marner got (which we fit without trading Nylander), there would have been no reason for Columbus to discuss us trading Nylander in order to fit it in.

But not a hint of any of this for players like Rantanen. Aho can't get more than 8.5x5 yet Marner with slightly better (and even that's arguable) stats gets 13x7.

I have a bridge to sell you...

 

[thewave]

Well would you rather their 4 1sts or Marner if you are them

4 1sts can generate a lot of good talent. Could have rounded out the D core and a whole host of things with that kind of asset value.

 

[Leafsfan74]

So I was just reading around on signings and different teams etc. I saw this note from Ryan Dixon on Sportsnet...

"What’s interesting about this Gaudreau scenario is, in the past, Columbus attempted to woo stars by offering the heftiest contracts. Whether it was trying to get Panarin to stay with a larger deal than he inked with the New York Rangers or flirting with an RFA offer sheet for Mitch Marner later that summer, GM Jarmo Kekalainen seemed to embrace the idea he might have to knock a star’s socks off to get him to commit to Columbus."

Interesting. I had never heard this before. Think that may have severely affected what the Leafs offered Mitch and what he signed for? If the threat was out there, I'm sure he and his agent knew all about it, and this would have changed negotiations ALOT.

F%%#! Columbus if true.

Who knows what is true or not, but there are very few players whom I would shed a tear over losing in exchange for four First Round picks.

Marner isn't one of them as good a player as he has proven to be.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Whenever Dubas gets tunnel vision and gets into a game of chicken (i.e. he's not really willing to look at any alternative options), he does poorly in negotiations.

He was very focused on getting Foligno two trade deadlines ago, and gave up WAY more than he should have for what was essentially a veteran 3rd liner at that point. He really wanted Murray, and we ended up with a bad deal there (should have been that compensation at 50% retained, or decently better pick compensation for taking him at 25%). The three young RFA forwards he wasn't willing to move any if they demanded unreasonable contracts (despite having limited leverage), let them sit for a year if needed, etc, and felt obligated to stick to "we can and we will", so we ended up with some bad RFA contracts.

I agreed with his Foligno gamble. It was a very unique situation and he had to strike. Victory goes to the bold, he had the right idea and they had the Habs on the ropes, losing back to back OT. The truth is, for all he and the stars are criticized, his teams have made the playoffs each year and just set a team record point total.

The problem has been in finding the Gamers with presence and drive. Too often the fans spit on them for not being video game flashy. Meanwhile, Cup teams all have them, guys like Perry make a difference when it matters.

Losing 6 game 7's in a row will never be matched. Up 3-1 and 3-2 in series and still losing so many is absurd. That is on the players. I would argue this past series against T.B, it was also on the refs, but I digress...

 

[ITM]

I thought it was known, Matthews and Marner were going to get offersheeted.

Our market subsists in fear.

Reminds of that scene when Batman and Kane fight in The Dark Knight Rises and Batman uses darkness as a tool of distraction and Kane before knocking him out says, "The shadows betray you because they belong to me."

Dubas was leaving. Matthews was leaving. Marner was leaving...Tavares was going to sign elsewhere.

I think we need a detox from fear in our market if that's at all possible. We're the worse for it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

But not a hint of any of this for players like Rantanen. Aho can't get more than 8.5x5 yet Marner with slightly better (and even that's arguable) stats gets 13x7.

Marner was a higher tier of player than Rantanen and Aho, and while you may choose to ignore that, teams knew that. And we don't know if Rantanen received an offer sheet. Kind of different media coverage and focus for Toronto vs. Colorado. Aho received an offer sheet, but it was at market value (which is why it horribly failed) and shorter term than what Columbus was reportedly looking for from Marner.

The only logical conclusion from what was reported is that it was in the four 1st range. Which sounds all nice and flashy, but four random 1sts are wildly overrated on here relative to one of the best young players in the cap era signed long-term through their 20s. You could go through twenty 1st round picks and not find anything close to him.

 

[BayStBullies]

Kutch, Ranta, Gaudreau, Point all make 1.5m less than Marner. How can whether Marner is overpaid still be debatable ? Would not be as bad if JT was playing like an $11m player instead of an $8m player.

I know math is difficult, I can help you.

Let's talk taxes.

Here is the estimated tax rate for the teams in question:
Colorado: 43.77%
Columbus: 46.61%
Tampa: 39.14%
Toronto: 53.17%

Here is what Marner's remaining contract would look like after taxes, if he played for the following teams:

Colorado: $6,130,756.9 [DIF: +$1,024,882]
Columbus: $5,821,111.7 [DIF: +$715,236.8]
Tampa: $6,635,565.8 [DIF: +$1,529,690.9]
Toronto: $5,105,874.9

Cap hits, adjusted to balance advantages:
Marner: $10,903,000
Kutch: $9,500,000 + $1,529,690.9 = $11,029,690.9
Gaudreau: $9,750,000 + $715,236.8 = $10,465,236.8
Rantanen: $9,250,000 + $1,024,882 = $10,274,882

Hey look at that, your point was disingenuous. Here to help.

Obviously the topic is more deep than this and you can adjust taxes further based off many other factors; but, let's not pretend each team has the same salary cap without advantages.

 

[francis246]

The offersheet threat for Marner was a load of bologna. Was Columbus really going to give up four unprotected 1st rounders as a team that looked ready to slide down the standings, while also having to overpay quite a bit on the caphit side, to obtain Marner? Was Marner really going to leave his hometown Leafs, a team that looked like it would be a legit contender for the next 5+ years, to go live in... Columbus Ohio, and play for a declining team, all to get an extra million or so on his caphit? He makes that up in endorsements by being a Maple Leaf, so he doesn't even make extra money by doing that unless the caphit is multiple millions higher.

Offersheets for top RFAs are not a real threat IMO. They're a MUCH more real threat for a guy like Sandin. If Sandin signs an offersheet for 2.5-3M, the compensation is garbage (a 2nd round pick) but we would have a really tough time matching. 2nd round pick compensation actually goes all the way up to 4.1M, so if a team REALLY wanted Sandin and offered him 3.5-4M, we still would only get a 2nd back as compensation, and would have an even tougher time keeping him.

Was this the year they had Panarin, Bobrovsky, Seth Jones and Duchene? If it was then I think they were ready. And I swear they knocked off Tampa the same year or the year before.

So it’s not unreasonable to think JK would have thought adding a Marner could put them over the edge

 

[ToneDog]

I know math is difficult, I can help you.

Let's talk taxes.

Here is the estimated tax rate for the teams in question:
Colorado: 43.77%
Columbus: 46.61%
Tampa: 39.14%
Toronto: 53.17%

Here is what Marner's remaining contract would look like after taxes, if he played for the following teams:

Colorado: $6,130,756.9 [DIF: +$1,024,882]
Columbus: $5,821,111.7 [DIF: +$715,236.8]
Tampa: $6,635,565.8 [DIF: +$1,529,690.9]
Toronto: $5,105,874.9

Cap hits, adjusted to balance advantages:
Marner: $10,903,000
Kutch: $9,500,000 + $1,529,690.9 = $11,029,690.9
Gaudreau: $9,750,000 + $715,236.8 = $10,465,236.8
Rantanen: $9,250,000 + $1,024,882 = $10,274,882

Hey look at that, your point was disingenuous. Here to help.

Obviously the topic is more deep than this and you can adjust taxes further based off many other factors; but, let's not pretend each team has the same salary cap without advantages.

My math is just fine. Boggles the mind that you cannot discuss without having to insult. Go figure.

Ah back to the old tax excuses. How about factoring in the wads of money Marner is paid up front and the money he gets for endorsements ?? Nah, let's ignore those "advantages"..

Even so even with you being so much better at math, you show Marner is still taking home 0.5m and 0.7m more than Gaudreau and Ranta. Nah he is not overpaid.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Marner was a higher tier of player than Rantanen and Aho, and while you may choose to ignore that, teams knew that. And we don't know if Rantanen received an offer sheet. Kind of different media coverage and focus for Toronto vs. Colorado. Aho received an offer sheet, but it was at market value (which is why it horribly failed) and shorter term than what Columbus was reportedly looking for from Marner.

The only logical conclusion from what was reported is that it was in the four 1st range. Which sounds all nice and flashy, but four random 1sts are wildly overrated on here relative to one of the best young players in the cap era signed long-term through their 20s. You could go through twenty 1st round picks and not find anything close to him.

No. The truth is that there is zero evidence that ANY of those 3 players received a massive 4 1st overall compensation offersheet. Rantanen and their group didn't need to to create fake propaganda stories (like Dubas and his team) to rationalize the contract he signed. Because his wasn't an unprecedented dramatic overpayment.

 

[ToneDog]

Was this the year they had Panarin, Bobrovsky, Seth Jones and Duchene? If it was then I think they were ready. And I swear they knocked off Tampa the same year or the year before.

So it’s not unreasonable to think JK would have thought adding a Marner could put them over the edge

I believe Panarin, Bob, Duchene and Dzingel bolted the season after they swept the Lightning.

 

[centipede2233]

They can and we will quote from dubas showed how green of a GM he was. If it were me, I’d say something like”go ahead, offersheet my players, I’ll take the 4 1sts and run and use the cap room on ufa’s”

 

[ToneDog]

They can and we will quote from dubas showed how green of a GM he was. If it were me, I’d say something like”go ahead, offersheet my players, I’ll take the 4 1sts and run and use the cap room on ufa’s”

Personally I would say something to the tune, of if an offersheet is presented, we will review it and choose the best option for the team. Then once after he bends my GM over into paying him $11mx6, I trade his ass out of town.

 

[notbias]

Never underestimate the ability of Kyle Dubas to overpay his players !

one of the few not doing it right now, and has done it a handful of times in what, 5 years? But sure.

 

[thewave]

They can and we will quote from dubas showed how green of a GM he was. If it were me, I’d say something like”go ahead, offersheet my players, I’ll take the 4 1sts and run and use the cap room on ufa’s”

Or take the picks and use the cap + the picks to go after their top prospect depth players and drive up their prices for years to come. If someone hands you 4 1sts and 11m cap you can do a lot of spiteful things haha.

 

[ToneDog]

one of the few not doing it right now, and has done it a handful of times in what, 5 years? But sure.

He has no cap space. If he did do you think he'd be signing Gaudette and Kubel and bringing back Malgin ? He would have signed Johnny hockey and Klingberg.

 

[francis246]

No. The truth is that there is zero evidence that ANY of those 3 players received a massive 4 1st overall compensation offersheet. Rantanen and their group didn't need to to create fake propaganda stories (like Dubas and his team) to rationalize the contract he signed. Because his wasn't an unprecedented dramatic overpayment.

Again I don’t care if I get crucified for this. But Marner isn’t overpaid. The NHL salary cap is designed by ownership to pay players lower than their actual worth. The NHL owners have been so successful at creating this sentiment that players should be for the team (which they should to a certain extent). But there are so many players league wide that are underpaid. It’s actually crazy to me that the players don’t take more control like in other major sports.

Although it was horrible for our team it was really refreshing to see a player demand what they are probably are worth.

I think it’s fair to say Marner is logically worth his salary but in the cap system it’s probably not the best idea to pay players their true value.

 

[ToneDog]

Again I don’t care if I get crucified for this. But Marner isn’t overpaid. The NHL salary cap is designed by ownership to pay players lower than their actual worth. The NHL owners have been so successful at creating this sentiment that players should be for the team (which they should to a certain extent). But there are so many players league wide that are underpaid. It’s actually crazy to me that the players don’t take more control like in other major sports.

Although it was horrible for our team it was really refreshing to see a player demand what they are probably are worth.

I think it’s fair to say Marner is logically worth his salary but in the cap system it’s probably not the best idea to pay players their true value.

I buy that. Without JT making $11, we can afford to pay Marner and there is plenty of money to add quality players around them. Some will disagree, argue and insult you but the proof is in the pudding.

 

[613Leafer]

Was this the year they had Panarin, Bobrovsky, Seth Jones and Duchene? If it was then I think they were ready. And I swear they knocked off Tampa the same year or the year before.

So it’s not unreasonable to think JK would have thought adding a Marner could put them over the edge

No, it was the year after that when Panarin, Bobrovsky, and Duchene had already left.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No. The truth is that there is zero evidence that ANY of those 3 players received a massive 4 1st overall compensation offersheet. Rantanen and their group didn't need to to create fake propaganda stories (like Dubas and his team) to rationalize the contract he signed. Because his wasn't an unprecedented dramatic overpayment.

None of them were anything close to "unprecedented dramatic overpayments". We know two things as fact. One - that Marner was not overpaid. We know this by looking at the history of post-ELC contracts in the cap era, and how he fits in relative to his performance up to and at the point of signing. Two - that Marner received 2 offer sheets. We know this not from "Dubas and his team", but from Marner himself.

Based on what was reported (Columbus was one of those teams, Columbus wanted high term, Columbus believed we would match by trading Nylander, speculation of ~13m x 7), and just how offer sheets are generally constructed, the only logical conclusion is that it was in the four 1sts range. Not only is any range below that unrealistic for a contract, let alone an offer sheet, at high term for a player like Marner, but if Columbus was offering a cap hit less than what Marner got (which we fit without trading Nylander), there would have been no reason for Columbus to discuss us trading Nylander in order to fit it in.