Interesting Marner note

[budzz]

So I was just reading around on signings and different teams etc. I saw this note from Ryan Dixon on Sportsnet...

"What’s interesting about this Gaudreau scenario is, in the past, Columbus attempted to woo stars by offering the heftiest contracts. Whether it was trying to get Panarin to stay with a larger deal than he inked with the New York Rangers or flirting with an RFA offer sheet for Mitch Marner later that summer, GM Jarmo Kekalainen seemed to embrace the idea he might have to knock a star’s socks off to get him to commit to Columbus."

Interesting. I had never heard this before. Think that may have severely affected what the Leafs offered Mitch and what he signed for? If the threat was out there, I'm sure he and his agent knew all about it, and this would have changed negotiations ALOT.

F%%#! Columbus if true.

Click to read more...

 

[Brobust]

I remember reporting that both CBJ and NYI were prepared to offer the McDavid contract to Marner and also that he was purely using them as a negotiating tactic.

 

[Stephen]

I think it’s reasonable that Columbus would try to participate in the free agent market…

 

[al secord]

Trying to land a young superstar by legal means seems like a smart move.

 

[budzz]

Trying to land a young superstar by legal means seems like a smart move.

Oh I agree it was perfectly legal. It just completely changes my perception of what he signed for, as many agree it was on the higher end for sure. This would explain why.

 

[al secord]

Oh I agree it was perfectly legal. It just completely changes my perception of what he signed for, as many agree it was on the higher end for sure. This would explain why.

I think the leafs were more concerned with Marner holding out than they were with him signing a Columbus offer sheet. Marner wanted Matthews money.

 

[613Leafer]

The offersheet threat for Marner was a load of bologna. Was Columbus really going to give up four unprotected 1st rounders as a team that looked ready to slide down the standings, while also having to overpay quite a bit on the caphit side, to obtain Marner? Was Marner really going to leave his hometown Leafs, a team that looked like it would be a legit contender for the next 5+ years, to go live in... Columbus Ohio, and play for a declining team, all to get an extra million or so on his caphit? He makes that up in endorsements by being a Maple Leaf, so he doesn't even make extra money by doing that unless the caphit is multiple millions higher.

Offersheets for top RFAs are not a real threat IMO. They're a MUCH more real threat for a guy like Sandin. If Sandin signs an offersheet for 2.5-3M, the compensation is garbage (a 2nd round pick) but we would have a really tough time matching. 2nd round pick compensation actually goes all the way up to 4.1M, so if a team REALLY wanted Sandin and offered him 3.5-4M, we still would only get a 2nd back as compensation, and would have an even tougher time keeping him.

 

[613Leafer]

Whenever Dubas gets tunnel vision and gets into a game of chicken (i.e. he's not really willing to look at any alternative options), he does poorly in negotiations.

He was very focused on getting Foligno two trade deadlines ago, and gave up WAY more than he should have for what was essentially a veteran 3rd liner at that point. He really wanted Murray, and we ended up with a bad deal there (should have been that compensation at 50% retained, or decently better pick compensation for taking him at 25%). The three young RFA forwards he wasn't willing to move any if they demanded unreasonable contracts (despite having limited leverage), let them sit for a year if needed, etc, and felt obligated to stick to "we can and we will", so we ended up with some bad RFA contracts.

 

[notbias]

The offersheet threat for Marner was a load of bologna. Was Columbus really going to give up four unprotected 1st rounders as a team that looked ready to slide down the standings, while also having to overpay quite a bit on the caphit side, to obtain Marner? Was Marner really going to leave his hometown Leafs, a team that looked like it would be a legit contender for the next 5+ years, to go live in... Columbus Ohio, and play for a declining team, all to get an extra million or so on his caphit? He makes that up in endorsements by being a Maple Leaf, so he doesn't even make extra money by doing that unless the caphit is multiple millions higher.

Offersheets for top RFAs are not a real threat IMO. They're a MUCH more real threat for a guy like Sandin. If Sandin signs an offersheet for 2.5-3M, the compensation is garbage (a 2nd round pick) but we would have a really tough time matching. 2nd round pick compensation actually goes all the way up to 4.1M, so if a team REALLY wanted Sandin and offered him 3.5-4M, we still would only get a 2nd back as compensation, and would have an even tougher time keeping him.

"I only believe reports I want to"

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner got the contract he got because he earned it relative to the history of post-ELC comparables, but yeah, we know for a fact that Marner was also given offer sheets - one of which was reported to be Columbus. I believe the reported issue, aside from Marner wanting to stay a Leaf, was that Marner wanted lesser term than Columbus did. But yeah, of course other teams would have recognized just how rare a Marner was.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I thought it was known, Matthews and Marner were going to get offersheeted.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

The only reason the Marner contract looks as bad as it currently does is because of Covid forcing the flat cap.

If the cap continued to grow at the pace we assumed, the cap would be closer to $95-$100million now, and his contract would actually be pretty good.

 

[thewave]

The only reason the Marner contract looks as bad as it currently does is because of Covid forcing the flat cap.

If the cap continued to grow at the pace we assumed, the cap would be closer to $95-$100million now, and his contract would actually be pretty good.

That's why pragmatic successful GMs don't just max out controlled contracts like we did. Dubas probably wouldn't even cite the potential for the cap being stalled going forward as a negotiating tool. The Vader clip is very relevant where he refers to Admiral Ozzel as being as clumsy as he is stupid. That's the case here with Dubas and there is not sugar coating it.

 

[cannucky]

The only reason the Marner contract looks as bad as it currently does is because of Covid forcing the flat cap.

If the cap continued to grow at the pace we assumed, the cap would be closer to $95-$100million now, and his contract would actually be pretty good.

Exactly but on the other side just imagine what we would be paying $1.25M players if the cap went up $20M can you imagine having to pay 3-4 million for a Kyle Clifford OMG !
I've always had a much bigger problem with the Tavares contract that Marner's deal .

 

[Orfieus]

The offersheet threat for Marner was a load of bologna. Was Columbus really going to give up four unprotected 1st rounders as a team that looked ready to slide down the standings, while also having to overpay quite a bit on the caphit side, to obtain Marner? Was Marner really going to leave his hometown Leafs, a team that looked like it would be a legit contender for the next 5+ years, to go live in... Columbus Ohio, and play for a declining team, all to get an extra million or so on his caphit? He makes that up in endorsements by being a Maple Leaf, so he doesn't even make extra money by doing that unless the caphit is multiple millions higher.

Offersheets for top RFAs are not a real threat IMO. They're a MUCH more real threat for a guy like Sandin. If Sandin signs an offersheet for 2.5-3M, the compensation is garbage (a 2nd round pick) but we would have a really tough time matching. 2nd round pick compensation actually goes all the way up to 4.1M, so if a team REALLY wanted Sandin and offered him 3.5-4M, we still would only get a 2nd back as compensation, and would have an even tougher time keeping him.

I was shocked that compensation for a $2 - $4.1m offer is only 2nd rounder but then once you offer $4.2 it becomes 1st and 3rd...like where is the middle ground?!?!?

 

[Mickey Marner]

I recall Columbus being interested and Darren Ferris vehemently denying (lying) that they turned down an 11×7 or 11×8 offer. Not sure what Columbus' offer was though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas probably wouldn't even cite the potential for the cap being stalled going forward

Yeah, if only Dubas had just been psychic and cited a nonexistent and unforeseen once-in-a-century global pandemic and all of the unknown resulting impacts of it, the agents and players would have been perfectly fine being paid less than their market value despite a cap that was projected to massively rise!

 

[thewave]

Yeah, if only Dubas had just been psychic and cited a nonexistent and unforeseen once-in-a-century global pandemic and all of the unknown resulting impacts of it, the agents and players would have been perfectly fine being paid less than their market value despite a cap that was projected to massively rise!

There were economic indicators around the time of those signings that suggested there would be issues going forward. There was also past precedence with the CBA etc. It was basically unanimous that the contracts Dubas handed out were overpays and that he broke the cap structure at the time as well.

He was and remains foolish with zero accountability.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There were economic indicators around the time of those signings that suggested there would be issues going forward.

No, there weren't. Every single projection and indication had the cap rising significantly, and the NHL themselves projected a multi-million dollar jump to 84-88m in just the first season - which didn't even include the primary causes of the imminent projected rise. The only debate was whether it would rise at an above average rate or a massively above average rate. A GM can't just randomly decide to ignore all that and claim that a once-in-a-century global pandemic is going to hit and stagnate the cap for years like never before, so the players need to take less than they're worth. Any GM would get laughed out of the room if they did that.

 

[thewave]

No, there weren't. Every single projection and indication had the cap rising significantly, and the NHL themselves projected a multi-million dollar jump to 84-88m in just the first season - which didn't even include the primary causes of the imminent projected rise. The only debate was whether it would rise at an above average rate or a massively above average rate. A GM can't just randomly decide to ignore all that and claim that a once-in-a-century global pandemic is going to hit and stagnate the cap for years like never before, so the players need to take less than they're worth. Any GM would get laughed out of the room if they did that.

There were absolutely talks about markets overheating and that sort of thing. Trump tariffs on China and political instability that was being projected to turn into a downturn. It didn't really happen that way but these sorts of things were absolutely in discussion at the time. There was no consideration for those sorts of things when Dubas broke away from tradition.

Regardless of lockdowns there was a downturn looming. Top economists knew, Covid was a good excuse to print a lot of stimulus though. It's running out as you can see.

 

[notbias]

Exactly but on the other side just imagine what we would be paying $1.25M players if the cap went up $20M can you imagine having to pay 3-4 million for a Kyle Clifford OMG !
I've always had a much bigger problem with the Tavares contract that Marner's deal .

Clifford would be making like 950k if the cap was at 100 million.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There were absolutely talks about markets overheating and that sort of thing. Trump tariffs on China and political instability that was being projected to turn into a downturn. It didn't really happen that way but these sorts of things were absolutely in discussion at the time.

There was talk about where the economy was going, but even the most pessimistic projections had the cap rising significantly. We were literally months from the cap rising 3-4m, even before any of the additional sources of revenue. The only debate was whether the cap would rise at an above average rate or a massively above average rate. If it wasn't for the pandemic and only the pandemic, the cap would be 10m+ higher right now. At least.

There was no consideration for those sorts of things when Dubas broke away from tradition.

Dubas didn't break from tradition, and you have no idea what considerations there were.

 

[thewave]

There was talk about where the economy was going, but even the most pessimistic projections had the cap rising significantly. We were literally months from the cap rising 3-4m, even before any of the additional sources of revenue. The only debate was whether the cap would rise at an above average rate or a massively above average rate. If it wasn't for the pandemic and only the pandemic, the cap would be 10m+ higher right now. At least.

Dubas didn't break from tradition, and you have no idea what considerations there were.

Are you going on record as saying that basically the entire hockey universe didn't regard Nylander and Marner as overpays? I think even Matthews was seen as a little high at the time considering what teams like Tampa were paying.

The cap doesn't go up during recession. That's just known and they did a CBA and clawed back the cap just a few years prior to the Nonis stint. Remember? Sub prime mortgage 2008 -->

 

[cannucky]

Clifford would be making like 950k if the cap was at 100 million.

Never underestimate the ability of Kyle Dubas to overpay his players !

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yeah this was reported after Marner signed and the Dubas propaganda outlets in Toronto went into overdrive to use it to rationalize the unprecedented dramatic overpayment.

Actual numbers are never discussed though. It was almost assuredly the two first round pick compensation, which would be lower than what Dubas signed him for anyways.

Marner's agent likely went to various teams like Columbus and said "make us an offer and we'll consider it". They were almost assuredly SIGNIFICANTLY lower than what Dubas overpaid, but they used it as leverage. "We're considering offer sheets.... just saying..." A veteran GM would have laughed it off. But we had a rookie who self described himself as "learning as he goes".