NHL Entry Draft If Zadina falls to the Sens should they take him?

[Lenny the Lynx]

Can't put a price on intangibles. That literally what the word intangible means

 

[branch]

Brady is far more skilled than some are giving credit. He has solid vision and is an excellent passer

Ya everyone just thinks hes an off the glass and out grinder...kid has skill and can finish

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Ya everyone just thinks hes an off the glass and out grinder...kid has skill and can finish

Has skill but can't finish. That's the problem.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Brady is far more skilled than some are giving credit. He has solid vision and is an excellent passer

I agree that he has good vision and playmaking ability, but it hasn't translated into top 5 or even top 10 worthy production at any level yet. Which generally means something is missing in his game that is preventing him from producing like a top pick.

He produced about the same as Josh Norris (19th, 2017), Evan Barratt (90th, 2017) and Grant Mismash (61st, 2017) playing for the USNTDP as a 17YR old. And he produced about the same as Shane Bowers (28th, 2017) playing for BU as an 18YR old.

What makes him a top 5 talent and the other guys late 1st/2nd/3rd round picks?

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I agree that he has good vision and playmaking ability, but it hasn't translated into top 5 or even top 10 worthy production at any level yet. Which generally means something is missing in his game that is preventing him from producing like a top pick.

He produced about the same as Josh Norris (19th, 2017), Evan Barratt (90th, 2017) and Grant Mismash (61st, 2017) playing for the USNTDP as a 17YR old. And he produced about the same as Shane Bowers (28th, 2017) playing for BU as an 18YR old.

What makes him a top 5 talent and the other guys late 1st/2nd/3rd round picks?

The name.

 

[Hale The Villain]

The name.

Probably plays a role. Also he has the tools (minus his mediocre shot) that scouts typically salivate over.

 

[Cosmix]

Im not here to argue whether Karlsson fits the mold but hes currently our best two way guy. He still leaves a lot to be desired defensively outside of two seasons ago. Karlsson is better suited playing 2nd pk or against middle 6 lines. I dont think at this point defensively id use him to shut down other teams top lines and that's my criteria

I would use him to shut down other team’s top lines. However he might be better used on the PP than PK and at ES against weaker lines to take advantage of the opponents.

I think Karlsson is the best offensive and defensive Defenseman this team has ever had and possibly ever will have. His defensive play is not based on physically over-powering the opponent but on the ability to accelerate quickly to get to the puck first and then either skate it out or pass it to a forward leaving the D zone.

Every D man does not have to be physically over-powering to be defensively successful or best. But I must say I do like having physically over-powering defensemen on the team provided that they are not too slow or lack puck-handling and passing abilities.

 

[Micklebot]

I agree that he has good vision and playmaking ability, but it hasn't translated into top 5 or even top 10 worthy production at any level yet. Which generally means something is missing in his game that is preventing him from producing like a top pick.

He produced about the same as Josh Norris (19th, 2017), Evan Barratt (90th, 2017) and Grant Mismash (61st, 2017) playing for the USNTDP as a 17YR old. And he produced about the same as Shane Bowers (28th, 2017) playing for BU as an 18YR old.

What makes him a top 5 talent and the other guys late 1st/2nd/3rd round picks?

Let's temporarily leave Tkachuk out of this. What made Norris a mid round pick in the first round, Mismash a late 2nd and Barratt a late third when only 2 pts separated them? I mean, if Norris can be worthy of 19th OA while another player within 2 pts of him is worthy of 90th and another worthy of 61st, maybe just maybe there's more to this than just production...

Why was Mittelstadt worth 8th, and Wheeler 5th?

At some point, you need to look past production, and look at the tools and context to project a kids future. Not saying scouts are perfect, but there are a lot of them that are projecting Tkachuk to be a good player, do you really think any would have any of Norris, Mittelstadt, Barratt or Mismash on the same level as one another? Do you think there were valid reasons all those guys were drafted at significantly different positions in the draft despite similar production in the same league?

I just don't get your point in bringing those guys up.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Let's temporarily leave Tkachuk out of this. What made Norris a mid round pick in the first round, Mismash a late 2nd and Barratt a late third when only 2 pts separated them? I mean, if Norris can be worthy of 19th OA while another player within 2 pts of him is worthy of 90th and another worthy of 61st, maybe just maybe there's more to this than just production...

Why was Mittelstadt worth 8th, and Wheeler 5th?

At some point, you need to look past production, and look at the tools and context to project a kids future. Not saying scouts are perfect, but there are a lot of them that are projecting Tkachuk to be a good player, do you really think any would have any of Norris, Mittelstadt, Barratt or Mismash on the same level as one another? Do you think there were valid reasons all those guys were drafted at significantly different positions in the draft despite similar production in the same league?

I just don't get your point in bringing those guys up.

I don't think there should have been a huge gap between Norris, Mismash and Barratt. I think their NHL potential is similar (all being likely bottom 6 guys).

Stats are a pretty good indicator of future success. It's quite rare for players who don't produce well at the junior level to produce well at the NHL level. Drafting players high that have mediocre or bad production has resulted in disappoint far more than it has resulted in success.

Having said this, stats aren't the whole story when making projections. I have Tkachuk ranked far above where I had the other guys ranked in their draft year. I think he's a far safer bet to be an NHLer than them because of his size, speed and aggressiveness. I also think his potential is higher (likely 40-50P guy, whereas I pegged the other guys as likely 30-40P guys if they work out).

If we were sitting near the end of the top 10 I think Tkachuk would be a fine pick, but at 4th OVR there are definitely higher upside options available.

 

[branch]

I really think Kotkaniemi gets picked up by the Habs. The argument can be made about him being BPA in that spot and the fact that he’s a big C, well you do the math

 

[SAK11]

I really think Kotkaniemi gets picked up by the Habs. The argument can be made about him being BPA in that spot and the fact that he’s a big C, well you do the math

I could see that happening, too, and I really don't think it would be a silly pick, either. I think highly of Kotkaniemi.

 

[branch]

I could see that happening, too, and I really don't think it would be a silly pick, either. I think highly of Kotkaniemi.

I wouldn’t mind him at 4 at all. I also like Zadina a lot of that we’re the case. Would be a tough call.

 

[Micklebot]

I don't think there should have been a huge gap between Norris, Mismash and Barratt. I think their NHL potential is similar (all being likely bottom 6 guys).

Stats are a pretty good indicator of future success. It's quite rare for players who don't produce well at the junior level to produce well at the NHL level. Drafting players high that have mediocre or bad production has resulted in disappoint far more than it has resulted in success.

Having said this, stats aren't the whole story when making projections. I have Tkachuk ranked far above where I had the other guys ranked in their draft year. I think he's a far safer bet to be an NHLer than them because of his size, speed and aggressiveness. I also think his potential is higher (likely 40-50P guy, whereas I pegged the other guys as likely 30-40P guys if they work out).

Fair enough, I don't agree, but I can understand your position.

If we were sitting near the end of the top 10 I think Tkachuk would be a fine pick, but at 4th OVR there are definitely higher upside options available.

This find extrodinarily interesting, because to me, the 4-10 slots are so incredibly tight. I can see, and have seen, arguments for just about any one of the guys ranked in that range as being the best pick of the bunch.

I've seen arguemtns for all of Boqvist, Bouchard, Dobson and Hughes as the best D after Dahlin. I've seen arguments for Kotkaniemi, Wahlstrom and Tkachuk as the best forward. I just don't see a lot separating these guys, they've all got positives and minuses.

 

[Hale The Villain]

If anyone is curious how other big toolsy power forwards with mediocre production have fared after being selected high, here's an incomplete list:

Gabriel Landeskog (2nd, 2011) - top line forward
Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006) - top line forward
Andrew Ladd (4th, 2004) - top 6 forward
Nino Niederreiter (5th, 2004) - top 6 forward
Jake Virtanen (6th, 2014) - bottom 6er (still early)
Michael Rasmussen (9th, 2017) - far too early
Nick Ritchie (10th, 2014) - bottom 6er (still early)
Brandon Sutter (11th, 2007) - bottom 6er
Lawson Crouse (11th, 2015) - too early

If we take Tkachuk at 4, hopefully he translates to the NHL level as well as Landeskog, but I'm expecting a Niederreiter-quality player.

 

[HSF]

Tkachuk will be the new Mittelstad. People will think someone got a steal down the road

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Tkachuk will be the new Mittelstad. People will think someone got a steal down the road

Their skill sets aren't comparable.

 

[Hutz]

They would need a Alfie type to give them space. Good thing we have Stone.

Will we witness the rebirth of the CASH line? :p

Maybe the "CASH discount" line because we'd be pretty lucky if any one of those guys becomes as good as the player they're replacing from the original line.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

THN has Tkachuk ahead of Zadina. Many people here are negative and express that negativity on Tkachuk at any opportunity.. but NHL CS has Tkachuk over Zadina as well... I don't believe its all brand name blindness. IMO it will be much closer on team lists between those 2 than this pole would suggest. I also think there is a very strong argument to take the best D on the board as well. With over 100 people weighing in here it is very clear what the majority HF Sens fans would do and I will not argue that it is a bad choice.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

If anyone is curious how other big toolsy power forwards with mediocre production have fared after being selected high, here's an incomplete list:

Gabriel Landeskog (2nd, 2011) - top line forward
Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006) - top line forward
Andrew Ladd (4th, 2004) - top 6 forward
Nino Niederreiter (5th, 2004) - top 6 forward
Jake Virtanen (6th, 2014) - bottom 6er (still early)
Michael Rasmussen (9th, 2017) - far too early
Nick Ritchie (10th, 2014) - bottom 6er (still early)
Brandon Sutter (11th, 2007) - bottom 6er
Lawson Crouse (11th, 2015) - too early

If we take Tkachuk at 4, hopefully he translates to the NHL level as well as Landeskog, but I'm expecting a Niederreiter-quality player.

Probably just a typo on your part but he was drafted in 2010.

 

[Viletho]

THN has Tkachuk ahead of Zadina. Many people here are negative and express that negativity on Tkachuk at any opportunity.. but NHL CS has Tkachuk over Zadina as well... I don't believe its all brand name blindness. IMO it will be much closer on team lists between those 2 than this pole would suggest. I also think there is a very strong argument to take the best D on the board as well. With over 100 people weighing in here it is very clear what the majority HF Sens fans would do and I will not argue that it is a bad choice.

A lot of people are afraid of Tkachuk. Not just on HfSens.. I look on HfHabs a lot these day and a lot don't want Tkachuk neither.

Personally, i like Tkachuk. To me, he is a nasty, gritty playmaker with a lot of skill. Doesn't have the best shot, but he is a very complete player.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

A lot of people are afraid of Tkachuk. Not just on HfSens.. I look on HfHabs a lot these day and a lot don't want Tkachuk neither.

Personally, i like Tkachuk. To me, he is a nasty, gritty playmaker with a lot of skill. Doesn't have the best shot, but he is a very complete player.

I agree. There seems to be an unfounded consensus going around that Tkachuk is mostly just a grinder but that's not at all what most of the scouts are saying. He does have skill and vision.

I'm not even that high on the kid but after watching the highlights and reading most reports about him, I'm fine with picking him 4th should Zadina not fall to us.

 

[R2010]

Thinking a little about 2011 and 2018 and parallels for a couple of players.

A lot of the same criticisms of Tkachuk were aired about Landeskog back in his draft year. Very similar in fact. This does not mean that Tkachuk will perfom to the level of Landeskog but it does indicate a bit that skill sets that are translatable are important. Similarly Zadina and Huberdeau have some similarities stylistically and I could envision a similar upside given their talent levels although for me Huberdeau was a better prospect than Zadina at the time they were drafted.

Assuming that both players reach this type of potential then we would be happy with either but neither is a franchise player IMO. Very good top six players. I don't think a #1 winger gets you a top pairing d-man one for one in many cases. If we have a shot at a #1 D then you take it - if the sens think Bouchard or Dobson is a #1 then i'd be happy to pass on Zadina for that.

 

[Habs100]

it looks like Zadina will be available for you guys:

 

[Micklebot]

it looks like Zadina will be available for you guys:

I'd love for that to be the case, but I'm not sure Zadina has inside info on who Mtl will draft...

 

[Habs100]

I'd love for that to be the case, but I'm not sure Zadina has inside info on who Mtl will draft...

He just got out of an interview with them.