OT: I Am Not Feeling Excited For Next Year

[HoweHullOrr]

Ok, so a lot of our comps have been base on last season, but lets look at two seasons ago;

Top lines:
Tkachuk-Stu-Giroux vs Tkachuk-Stu-Giroux
Should be about the same, Giroux may have regressed, but Stu and Tkachuk should be improved

2nd Line
Debrincat-Pinto (rookie)-Batherson(recovering from High ankle sprain) vs Greig-Norris-Batherson
Debrincat didn't want to be here, and Batherson was a shell of himself. Norris should be an improvement over Rookie Pinto, Batherson should be much better as he's healthy, and Greig will give a damn on both sides of the ice,

3rd line
Motte-Brassard-Joseph vs Perron-Pinto-Amadio
Huge improvement. Perron is way better than Motte, Pinto is lightyears ahead of Brassard, Amadio and Joseph bring different qualities but similar impact

4th line
Kelly-Gambrell/Kastelic-Watsson vs Gregor-Ostapchuk-MacEwen
Kelly vs Gregor, I prefer Gregor, Watson over MacEwen though. I'll call it a wash but I think the current group has a bit of an edge.

Top Pair
Chabot-Zub vs Sanderson-Zub
Big upgrade imo, Sanderson has been lights out good.

2nd Pair
Rookie Sanderson-Hamonic vs Chabot-Jensen
Chabot is at least on par with rookie Sanderson, Jensen should be better than Hamonic. Again improved.

3rd Pair
Brannstrom-Holden (old man version) vs Kleven-JBD
I think this is where the 2022-23 iteration might have an edge because Kleven is an unkown, but I am really high on Kleven so I could see this being another big improvement.

Starter
Talbot vs Ullmark
Talbot got more heat than deserved, but Ullmark should be much better

Backup
Forsberg vs Forsberg
Draw? Forsberg was pretty good before the double MCL injury, was last year him recovering or did he regress? Could be a downgrade .


So, that 2022-23 team got 86 pts, and on paper we're much improved, especially with the depth at center. We also look more well rounded, and have a much better 3rd line.

Sounds like (a guess based on my interpretation of your post) a 100 points + season then?

 

[Micklebot]

Sounds like (a guess based on my interpretation of your post) a 100 points + season then?

Well, a 14 pts jump is still pretty big, even with a big improvement on paper. I think it's plausible, but would require healthy seasons from both Norris and Pinto, would require limited regression from Giroux and Perron, and would require Ullmark to perform as expected.

I think we should land anywhere between 95 and 105 if all goes well, I can't see us getting over 105 even if everything goes close to perfect though, where as when things go poorly, there is no bottom.

I also think that a lot depends on how things go for other teams, will there be a changing of the guard, do teams like Washington, TBL and the Pens start to fall, do the NJD come out like gang bustters? Is this the year Boston finally starts to fall back?

If I were to set an over under, it would be 96.5 pts.

 

[Relapsing]

Well, a 14 pts jump is still pretty big, even with a big improvement on paper. I think it's plausible, but would require healthy seasons from both Norris and Pinto, would require limited regression from Giroux and Perron, and would require Ullmark to perform as expected.

It's not unheard of - even the Sens had a 36 pt jump between the 95/96 - 96/97 seasons.

looking at the raw numbers, we've had multiple instances of double digit point gains between back to back seasons.

A lot is going to have to go right for that to happen... but I do think the makeup of the team is significantly improved from last season.

It's not out of the realm of the possible that this team gets into the mid 90's next year. And if they don't, well, it'll be an exciting time talking about all the changes the team will need to undergo to reset their fortunes.

 

[albator71]

I'm feeling pretty optimistic about next season, just having a real quality #1 goaltender makes the Sens a playoff team in my opinion. I can't wait for the season to start, I'm a die hard fan what can I tell you. LFG!!!!

 

[UglyPuckling]

Well, a 14 pts jump is still pretty big, even with a big improvement on paper. I think it's plausible, but would require healthy seasons from both Norris and Pinto, would require limited regression from Giroux and Perron, and would require Ullmark to perform as expected.

I think we should land anywhere between 95 and 105 if all goes well, I can't see us getting over 105 even if everything goes close to perfect though, where as when things go poorly, there is no bottom.

I also think that a lot depends on how things go for other teams, will there be a changing of the guard, do teams like Washington, TBL and the Pens start to fall, do the NJD come out like gang bustters? Is this the year Boston finally starts to fall back?

If I were to set an over under, it would be 96.5 pts.

It's not unheard of - even the Sens had a 36 pt jump between the 95/96 - 96/97 seasons.

looking at the raw numbers, we've had multiple instances of double digit point gains between back to back seasons.

A lot is going to have to go right for that to happen... but I do think the makeup of the team is significantly improved from last season.

It's not out of the realm of the possible that this team gets into the mid 90's next year. And if they don't, well, it'll be an exciting time talking about all the changes the team will need to undergo to reset their fortunes.

People in this forum were saying that better goaltending would result in us winning a handful of more games. So, if that’s true, most of the 14 point increase should come from just better goaltending alone. Then, IF there’s been other improvements in addition to goaltending, it seems like 96 points or even possibly more is achievable.

 

[Micklebot]

People in this forum were saying that better goaltending would result in us winning a handful of more games. So, if that’s true, most of the 14 point increase should come from just better goaltending alone. Then, IF there’s been other improvements in addition to goaltending, it seems like 96 points or even possibly more is achievable.

Goaltending alone can make or break seasons, we had among the leagues worst goaltending last year, imo if we get among the Leagues best, we will almost certainly get 96 or more points. Only three teams with a 900 or higher team sv % missed the playoffs last year, the blues, the penguins and Seattle. Only two teams with less than .895 sv% made the playoffs, the Leafs and TBL.

I think if we get .895-900 team sv% we have a chance, if we get above .905 we are close to a lock.

 

[Silky Johnson]

When I look at the changes made from the start of last season I see only one major positive change: goaltending.

Norris' injury is still a major concern.
Jensen for Chychrun is a concern too because what we gain in defensive play, we lose in offensive play.
Gregor for Kelly is at best a wash but might not be positive.
Perron for Tarasenko does not look like a positive to me.
Amadio for Kubalic looks like a small positive change.
Losing Joseph for nothing is a negative.
We still need a 4th line C.
Coaching is a question mark.

You forgot a full season of Pinto.

You also forgot about Stutzle not being able to shoot last year.

Norris being a question mark is still better than being on IR.

If the team can have a stable and healthy top 3C's that is a MASSIVE improvement over last year.

Also, Sanderson & Greig should have have natural improvement.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Goaltending alone can make or break seasons, we had among the leagues worst goaltending last year, imo if we get among the Leagues best, we will almost certainly get 96 or more points. Only three teams with a 900 or higher team sv % missed the playoffs last year, the blues, the penguins and Seattle. Only two teams with less than .895 sv% made the playoffs, the Leafs and TBL.

I think if we get .895-900 team sv% we have a chance, if we get above .905 we are close to a lock.

So, the stats seem to indicate that with the better goaltending (.905) and other improvements, we should get more than 96 points then. 14 teams had more than 96 points last year. The Islanders were the 15th seed at 94 points. This is worth remembering and we’ll see what happens.

 

[DueDiligence]

Chychrun scored 41 pts last season, Jensen only 14. We gotta hope that Jensen major analytical/play drop last season was just a bump on the road and he'll get back to being a solid 2nd pairing defensive D-man (see link at the end of this post)

JC had 41 points last year and still was a minus 30. Jensen had only 14 points but was just a minus 9. If Jensen can be just adequate offensively but good in his own end and be a stabilizing force for Chabot ( which Chychrun was not) then he will be a significant upgrade to JC.

Chychrun needed to be "Erik Karlsson-like} in the offensive zone to make up for his very poor defensive play. And he wasn't close to that.

 

[thammias]

You forgot a full season of Pinto.

You also forgot about Stutzle not being able to shoot last year.

Norris being a question mark is still better than being on IR.

If the team can have a stable and healthy top 3C's that is a MASSIVE improvement over last year.

Also, Sanderson & Greig should have have natural improvement.

I think Stutzle if his wrist is back to 100% will have a monster year.
I remember thinking the same thing back last preseason when I was at the game he scored 2 goals from distance with absolute lasers top shelf. Sure it was preseason but the shots were filthy.

Then he had the season he had and I was disappointed. Finding out at the end of the season, he was dealing with a nagging wrist from Game 4 made alot more sense. He never tried to use his shot, always tried to deke or score five hole. If you look at all his 18 goals from last year 95% were dekes, tapins or low shots five hole, etc.

 

[aragorn]

IMO it will either be Stutzle or Norris that start on LW, depending on how healthy Norris will be to start the season. Placing two decent vets with Greig should really help him to elevate his play as well. Hamonic will mentor Kleven & share that spot with JBD for this yr anyway & I expect that Gregor will mentor Ostapchuk. Injuries to key players will most likely determine again how this team does especially in net.

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Stutzle - Pinto - Giroux
Perron - Greig - Amadio
Gregor - Ostapchuk - MacEwan/???

Chabot - Jensen
Sanderson - Zub
Kleven - Hamonic/JBD

Ullmark - Forsberg/Sogaard

 

[OD99]

IMO it will either be Stutzle or Norris that start on LW, depending on how healthy Norris will be to start the season. Placing two decent vets with Greig should really help him to elevate his play as well. Hamonic will mentor Kleven & share that spot with JBD for this yr anyway & I expect that Gregor will mentor Ostapchuk. Injuries to key players will most likely determine again how this team does especially in net.

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Stutzle - Pinto - Giroux
Perron - Greig - Amadio
Gregor - Ostapchuk - MacEwan/???

Chabot - Jensen
Sanderson - Zub
Kleven - Hamonic/JBD

Ullmark - Forsberg/Sogaard

Stutzle is a C, man. He will be in the middle.

 

[Cosmix]

Well I guess you are a glass half empty sort of guy. If you look at what you said objectively then things look better. For example :

1) Norris should be reasonably healthy for 60 plus games and he will score 20 plus goals.
2) Jensen for Chychrun is a significant upgrade. Regardless of the offense he provided JC was just awful defensively last year and Jensen 's net overall impact on both ends will be far greater.
3) Having Pinto for a full season is a huge upgrade.
4) Amadio is a significant upgrade on Kubalic.
5) Timmy S will be healthy this year.
6) Green will get these guys working harder and smarter than DJ ever did.

And the goaltending change alone is probably worth at least 10 points in the standings. When the team has confidence in their goalie and not always playing catch-up they will play far better overall.

I will believe when I see it.

Most thought Norris would be back to normal last season too.
Jensen's wheels are about to fall off.
Pinto for a full season should be an improvement.
Amadio's record over time is not as good as Kubalic's record. I did not like Kubalic's work last season, so Amadio might be an improvement; I will wait and see.
Stutzle, hopefully and I expect will have a full healthy season and be better due to maturity and experience.
We shall see if Green can turn the Smith mess around.

IMO it will either be Stutzle or Norris that start on LW, depending on how healthy Norris will be to start the season. Placing two decent vets with Greig should really help him to elevate his play as well. Hamonic will mentor Kleven & share that spot with JBD for this yr anyway & I expect that Gregor will mentor Ostapchuk. Injuries to key players will most likely determine again how this team does especially in net.

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Stutzle - Pinto - Giroux
Perron - Greig - Amadio
Gregor - Ostapchuk - MacEwan/???

Chabot - Jensen
Sanderson - Zub
Kleven - Hamonic/JBD

Ullmark - Forsberg/Sogaard

I suspect Stutzle will be 1C and Norris 2C if he is ready to go. If Norris is not ready he will be placed on 2LW or perhaps 3LW.

I like Ostapchuk but expect him to play in Belleville next season. Some other more experienced player will be 4C.

 

[Silky Johnson]

IMO it will either be Stutzle or Norris that start on LW, depending on how healthy Norris will be to start the season. Placing two decent vets with Greig should really help him to elevate his play as well. Hamonic will mentor Kleven & share that spot with JBD for this yr anyway & I expect that Gregor will mentor Ostapchuk. Injuries to key players will most likely determine again how this team does especially in net.

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Stutzle - Pinto - Giroux
Perron - Greig - Amadio
Gregor - Ostapchuk - MacEwan/???

Chabot - Jensen
Sanderson - Zub
Kleven - Hamonic/JBD

Ullmark - Forsberg/Sogaard

Stützle is a C. They would be crazy to play him on the wing. His jump in play corresponds directly when they moved him to C. You don't mess with that.

Norris on the wing is a little more interesting as he can be productive as a trigger man with his shot. However he can be pretty good on the defensive side of the puck. If he is tentative in his engagement, then I'd rather see him on the wing.

If they are all healthy and playing well I'd love to see Stützle-Norris-Pinto down the middle. Great flexibility on matchups.

 

[ottawagm]

Batherson said that Norris hasn't been complaining about his shoulder this summer compared to last year and has been playing golf. So that is good news.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I will believe when I see it.

Most thought Norris would be back to normal last season too.
Jensen's wheels are about to fall off.
Pinto for a full season should be an improvement.
Amadio's record over time is not as good as Kubalic's record. I did not like Kubalic's work last season, so Amadio might be an improvement; I will wait and see.
Stutzle, hopefully and I expect will have a full healthy season and be better due to maturity and experience.
We shall see if Green can turn the Smith mess around.


I suspect Stutzle will be 1C and Norris 2C if he is ready to go. If Norris is not ready he will be placed on 2LW or perhaps 3LW.

I like Ostapchuk but expect him to play in Belleville next season. Some other more experienced player will be 4C.

I’m not that concerned anymore about Norris, after listening to Drake interview.
He said Norris seems fine now when he talks to him, wasn’t the impression he got last year. Also said he’s been golfing, wasn’t doing that last year.
Also said Norris something along the lines. Norris doesn’t seem concerned this year, which is different than last year.

Drake seemed much more confident in Norris for this year than last year.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

1 year ago

 

[SENStastic]

Not a surprise, our season sinks or swim with Ullmark, and right now he's just a rental. Even if he plays well we're not likely a playoff team. Nothing to be excited about when your key additions are Perron, Jensen and Green. I'll be a little more optimistic if Ullmark extends and works out, but barring that, we're likely looking at a retool the following season and a core shakeup. This feels like a transition year more than anything unfortunately, not expecting much just trending sideways.

 

[OD99]

Jensen's wheels are about to fall off.

He will just be turning 34 when the season starts.

Guys diminish, but defensive D are more about smarts and positioning than any overwhelming skill. Having wheels always helps, but the talk of him falling off a cliff just screams of Sens fan insecurities.

Generally speaking, I thunk the make up of our team is much better this year than last, even if we end up slightly less skilled. I am not sure we are less skilled, BTW, just saying I think we have a better makeup.

 

[OD99]

1 year ago

Haha. I remembered Josh played golf last year as well, but even then he was saying he wasn't all good.

I refuse to change my outlook on his recovery! He had the magic surgeon and he will have a big year.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Not a surprise, our season sinks or swim with Ullmark, and right now he's just a rental. Even if he plays well we're not likely a playoff team. Nothing to be excited about when your key additions are Perron, Jensen and Green. I'll be a little more optimistic if Ullmark extends and works out, but barring that, we're likely looking at a retool the following season and a core shakeup. This feels like a transition year more than anything unfortunately, not expecting much just trending sideways.

At least we won't be subjected to Korpisalo stinking up the joint either way. Will be nice to have a guy you can actually trust even if just for a year.

 

[LiseL]

At least we won't be subjected to Korpisalo stinking up the joint either way. Will be nice to have a guy you can actually trust even if just for a year.

I just don't see Ullmark and his family not liking Ottawa. Ullmark has already stated he doesn't want to play in a big market, his son is looking forward to coming to Ottawa because of the snow. I think it would have to be because the family doesn't like it here, or he doesn't gel with the team, including how they play in front of him, or he finds it difficult being in a Cdn market due to the media scrutiny. I doubt SS would try to low ball him an offer if his play is as good as we're expecting and he wants to stay. Moving your family after one year is disruptive, especially if they like it here. Also, his not wanting to go out west or play in a big market limits the teams he can sign with. But if he doesn't re-sign with us, SS should have enough notice to start looking for a replacement.

 

[OD99]

I just don't see Ullmark and his family not liking Ottawa. Ullmark has already stated he doesn't want to play in a big market, his son is looking forward to coming to Ottawa because of the snow. I think it would have to be because the family doesn't like it here, or he doesn't gel with the team, including how they play in front of him, or he finds it difficult being in a Cdn market due to the media scrutiny. I doubt SS would try to low ball him an offer if his play is as good as we're expecting and he wants to stay. Moving your family after one year is disruptive, especially if they like it here. Also, his not wanting to go out west or play in a big market limits the teams he can sign with. But if he doesn't re-sign with us, SS should have enough notice to start looking for a replacement.

It's an inexact science but I know a lot of Swedes through my work and, generally speaking, we are incredibly similar.

From humour to lifestyle, there are many commonalities. Outside of that, Ottawa is a very nice city to raise a family. Especially one that has money

Have we ever not had a Swede stick around?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I just don't see Ullmark and his family not liking Ottawa. Ullmark has already stated he doesn't want to play in a big market, his son is looking forward to coming to Ottawa because of the snow. I think it would have to be because the family doesn't like it here, or he doesn't gel with the team, including how they play in front of him, or he finds it difficult being in a Cdn market due to the media scrutiny. I doubt SS would try to low ball him an offer if his play is as good as we're expecting and he wants to stay. Moving your family after one year is disruptive, especially if they like it here. Also, his not wanting to go out west or play in a big market limits the teams he can sign with. But if he doesn't re-sign with us, SS should have enough notice to start looking for a replacement.

I agree completely. Lots of factors leaning in favor of it like him saying he wants to be a clear #1 and all the teams he blocked already. Only so many jobs and big contracts. I'm very optimistic about Ullmark staying, but until it's done it's hard to blame the worriers. I think the team collapsing is probably the biggest threat to him not re-signing, but I'm confident they won't (in large part because of him) and if that happens they'll have bigger issues anyways.

I'm just so stoked SS didn't sit on his hands and hope for the best from Korpisalo. He's not it. SS bought a lot of goodwill from me for saying upgrading goaltending was his number 1 priority this offseason.

 

[Xspyrit]

3 biggest factors that could really change the outlook for the team :

- Coaching : make them play more as a 5-men unit and more efficiently

- Norris, Chabot and Stutzle health status : that could really change a lot

- Stutzle, Sanderson, Pinto and Greig progressions : Stu and Jake have to become Elite.

JC had 41 points last year and still was a minus 30. Jensen had only 14 points but was just a minus 9. If Jensen can be just adequate offensively but good in his own end and be a stabilizing force for Chabot ( which Chychrun was not) then he will be a significant upgrade to JC.

Chychrun needed to be "Erik Karlsson-like} in the offensive zone to make up for his very poor defensive play. And he wasn't close to that.

ok but plus/minus is not recognized as a valid argument, particularly with 2 players who were on different teams. Did you open the link? The thing is while Chychrun was very disappointing defensively, Jensen is a defensive D-man and has to be much better than him to be as valuable... and well, if you dig a little (which is what the article does), he wasn't very good last season.

Hopefully he allows Chabot to be at top of his game, all I am asking... And to think that we had Dylan DeMelo and Dorion thought it was a great idea to trade him for a 3rd round pick (and even worse, to think that he also spent a 3rd on Travis Hamonic lol)

Stutzle is a C, man. He will be in the middle.

Of course, once in a while you have a non-Sens fan come up with Stutzle as a W but coming from a Sens fan, haven't seen that in years.