Hypothetical - does McDavid win the Conn Smythe even if Oilers lose the cup? Assuming he has an above average finals

[karltonian]

Unless he drags them to 7 singlehandedly, no he will not win it.

 

[CashMash]

You also need to take age into consideration. Crosby was 28 back in 2016 when they gifted him the Conn Smythe, as it could've been the last time he made the finals and they didn't want Crosby to go Conn Smytheless. McDavid is 27 right now and only has 1 more year with this core to try and win. There's plenty of reason to "gift it" to McDavid this year even if he doesn't win the cup. Who knows if McDavid will ever reach the finals again so this might be the last chance to give him a Conn Smythe. I mean do you want to live in a world were McDavid never wins the Conn Smythe?!

Yup. That's the way I see it with Crosby's first Smythe... Should have been Kessel's.
The issue I have is that they then snubbed Malkin to give him a second too.

Two of the weakest Smythes in recent memory.

 

[byrath]

I have read from one voter that they give 50% weight to the first 3 rounds and 50% weight to the finals. They said most other voters see it the same way.

That's probably correct, but McD has 7 points and a +2 in 4 games, so giving extra weight to the finals doesn't really help nor hurt his case

 

[byrath]

Unless he drags them to 7 singlehandedly, no he will not win it.

Agreed, if it goes 7, McD is probably within spitting distance of the Gretzky's points record, I think that would be enough to get him the votes.

 

[cupface52]

My point is that breaking assist records don't seem to be enough to sway Conn Smythe voters if you don't win the cup. Voters have shown a gigantic bias towards goals and goal related milestones when voting for MVP awards.

Take the 2018 Conn Smythe as an example. Ovechkin was great that year, but Kuznetsov was pretty clearly the better player in the first 3 rounds and again in the final:

• Playoff total
  • EK: 12g 32p +12 6 ESG 20 ESP 56.6% xG%
  • AO: 15g 12a +8 6 ESG 16 ESP 55.9% xG%
• Finals
  • EK: 1g 7p +5 1 ESG 5 ESP
  • AO: 3g 5p +3 1 ESG 3 ESP

Kuznetsov also had the game 6 OT winner to finally propel them past their rivals in Pittsburgh. He was very clearly the statistically dominant player, and he did it while playing the more important position. But OV had 3 more PP goals, so he won the Smythe.

A few other examples of the media heavily favoring goals in MVP voting:

• Nieuwendyk CS over Modano in 1999
• Marchessault CS over Eichel in 2023
• Lemieux CS over Broten in 1995
• Matthews Hart in 2022
• Perry Hart in 2011

I think McDavid's goal totals may be what ends up hurting him here, though I do think he'll get a voting boost because he's a generational player, he's a captain, and he's a Canadian, which has shown to be a pretty big benefit for CS contenders (Crosby winning in 2016 as an example).

I will disagree on why Ovie won the Smythe over Kuznetsov, it's not the goal totals. Other than offensive production, Ovie brought more to the table, long standing captain, and it's Ovechkin, his name gave him points towards the CS.

In all your goals "heavily" influencing MVP CS examples, it's a difference of 1-3 points. If goals so heavily influenced MVP voting, why doesnt Ovechkin win the Hart over Sedin in '10, 21 more goals, 3 less points, in 10 less games played.

The thing with McDavid this year, there is zero precedence. McDavid broke a 40 year old legit Gretzky record. He's likely to end up with 40+ points for the first time in over 30 years, something that only Lemieux and Gretzky have done.

If it's not McDavid, who's winning the CS for Florida? Barkov is not getting the Smythe over McDavid. If he was within 10 points, then ya he likely would, but he's 17 points behind. Bob, at best has been the 3rd best goalie these playoffs.

 

[bobholly39]

Its actually a 5-3-1 by about 18 PHWA members in the building. Here’s a post with some recent results.

In the scenario of the guy you quoted, all three guys would get 3 points per vote, and the winner would be determined by most 1st place votes, in which case McDavid loses b/c he didn’t get any 1sts.

Edit: I misinterpreted the other guy’s post. It is possible for McDavid to win but he needs at least 1 1st, if everyone else votes him 2nd. It would look like this:

McDavid: 1st 1 2nd 17 Total: 56
Bobrobsky: 1st 9 2nd 0 3rd 9 Total: 54
Barkov: 1st 8 2nd 1 3rd 9 Total: 52

I could see something like this playing out. Essentialy, it'd go something like this:

- Majority of voters don't want to give McDavid #1 voting if he loses cup....but they ALL give him #2 vote.

- A few (2-3 voters) still do vote #1 for McDavid

- Most voting a Panther for #1 are split between Barkov and Bobrosvky for #1

That is a pretty realistic & reasonable guess as to how the voting might go, which would lead to McDavid winning.

 

[ijuka]

Yup. That's the way I see it with Crosby's first Smythe... Should have been Kessel's.
The issue I have is that they then snubbed Malkin to give him a second too.

Two of the weakest Smythes in recent memory.

They made up the narrative of Crosby being a selke level defensive forward to support those smythes, too.

 

[wetcoast]

I could see something like this playing out. Essentialy, it'd go something like this:

- Majority of voters don't want to give McDavid #1 voting if he loses cup....but they ALL give him #2 vote.

- A few (2-3 voters) still do vote #1 for McDavid

- Most voting a Panther for #1 are split between Barkov and Bobrosvky for #1

That is a pretty realistic & reasonable guess as to how the voting might go, which would lead to McDavid winning.

Hard to say as I could see a lot of voters giving McDavid 3rd just because he wasn't on the winning team even if his performance is actually the most Conn Smythe worthy.

 

[daver]

@daver

I look forward to your response.

All Crosby has over Mcdavid at this point is “moments”

Golden goal

Hoisting Stanley cups etc.

Not enough to have him over mcdavid in my opinion but people will cling to this stuff.

@daver

I look forward to your response.

From the Oxford dictionary:

mo·ment
/ˈmōm(ə)nt/ - a very brief period of time.


So the highest playoff goal total of his era is a moment?

A 2nd Rocket Richard is a moment?

The most Top 3 Art Ross/Hart finishes outside of the Big 4 is a moment?

Two Conn Smythes is a moment?

Good to know.

 

[bucks_oil]

I posted this in the other thread, but Gretzky did that in 1983 (set the record for assists AND points) but still lost the Smythe because the Islanders beat them in the final.

You don't have to imagine, it happened to Gretzky in 1983.

Lol... I stand corrected, but somehow not surprised.

We probably had to surrender a 2nd round draft pick as compensation for clouding the Islanders narrative.

 

[TD Charlie]

It's Barkov or Bobrovsky. Stranger things have happened though

 

[CanadienShark]

From the Oxford dictionary:

mo·ment
/ˈmōm(ə)nt/ - a very brief period of time.


So the highest playoff goal total of his era is a moment?

A 2nd Rocket Richard is a moment?

The most Top 3 Art Ross/Hart finishes outside of the Big 4 is a moment?

Two Conn Smythes is a moment?

Good to know.

That first Conn Smythe was totally not deserved. McDavid should crush Crosby in trophies by the end of same point in his career. He's already way ahead of pace.

 

[JKG33]

I posted this in the other thread, but Gretzky did that in 1983 (set the record for assists AND points) but still lost the Smythe because the Islanders beat them in the final.

You don't have to imagine, it happened to Gretzky in 1983.

Yea this pretty much sums up the argument.

If McD gets a bunch more points and they lose in 7, sure he might win. But anything less than that and it should go to a Panther

 

[daver]

That first Conn Smythe was totally not deserved. McDavid should crush Crosby in trophies by the end of same point in his career. He's already way ahead of pace.

Your use of "totally" makes me wonder if you were even born yet in 2016, let alone watched the games.

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

The voters mostly have never played hockey and think assists are easy. He won’t get it

 

[CanadienShark]

Your use of "totally" makes me wonder if you were even born yet in 2016, let alone watched the games.

Oh good one. You're always good for a laugh.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Unless he drags them to 7 singlehandedly, no he will not win it.

PRetty much this and this seems to be consensus on sports media as well. Just the points isn't enough, there needs to be a Game 7 and OT and so on. Or an Oilers blowout in Game 7.

 

[TeeTee]

Your use of "totally" makes me wonder if you were even born yet in 2016, let alone watched the games.

I think they look at the box scores and not watch the games.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Unless he drags them to 7 singlehandedly, no he will not win it.

Pretty obvious , but if he does exactly that he might be able to win it , would be fun to watch

 

[dalewood12]

For McDavid to win the Conn Smythe, there will have to be a lot of vote-splitting between Bob and Barkov.

Currently, it appears Bob is the top choice for the Cats. Another bad or mediocre performance for Bob, and Barkov might take some more of Bob's votes, giving McDavid just enough votes to eke out the Conn Smythe.

 

[Mike C]

I could see something like this playing out. Essentialy, it'd go something like this:

- Majority of voters don't want to give McDavid #1 voting if he loses cup....but they ALL give him #2 vote.

- A few (2-3 voters) still do vote #1 for McDavid

- Most voting a Panther for #1 are split between Barkov and Bobrosvky for #1

That is a pretty realistic & reasonable guess as to how the voting might go, which would lead to McDavid winning.

ESPN has good article on McDavid and Reggie Leach being parallel when Leach won Smythe in '76 even though Flyers lost in finals

I bet Fla to win series before it started

I took McD at 6-1 for Smythe after I read that article

 

[Mike C]

For McDavid to win the Conn Smythe, there will have to be a lot of vote-splitting between Bob and Barkov.

Currently, it appears Bob is the top choice for the Cats. Another bad or mediocre performance for Bob, and Barkov might take some more of Bob's votes, giving McDavid just enough votes to eke out the Conn Smythe.

Last odds out have Bob and Barkov both at a pick 'em. That well may lead to split votes. McDavid is 6-1

 

[Empoleon8771]

For McDavid to win the Conn Smythe, there will have to be a lot of vote-splitting between Bob and Barkov.

Currently, it appears Bob is the top choice for the Cats. Another bad or mediocre performance for Bob, and Barkov might take some more of Bob's votes, giving McDavid just enough votes to eke out the Conn Smythe.

I think there are only like 15-20 votes for the Conn Smythe, so I'd be pretty surprised if something like this happened.

It would have to be like 7 votes McDavid, 5 votes Bob and 5 votes Barkov for something like that to happen. I doubt McDavid gets enough votes to overtake either Bob or Barkov even with a split.

I figure Bob gets it and the votes end up like 10 for Bobrovsky, 5 for Barkov and 2 or so for McDavid.

 

[jigglysquishy]

10 points ahead of Draisaitl is pretty crazy.

 

[Canadienna]

I mean he's got to be the winner right?

Just unbelievable.