Hypothetical - does McDavid win the Conn Smythe even if Oilers lose the cup? Assuming he has an above average finals

[ViD]

If Florida finishes it in game 5 and Bob has a good game, he will win

If it goes 7 games and Florida still wins, McDavid has a very strong case

 

[bobholly39]

It's hilarious how this board can go from "McDavid has had a terrible finals" to "McDavid has had a better finals than Crosby ever had" just because McDavid put up some points in a blowout game

MLB has a stat called "win probability added", but we can track that in the NHL on sites like MoneyPuck as well. McDavid had points on the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th goals last night. In terms of win probability added, here's what those looked like:

4th: Increase by 6.5%
5th: Increase by 10.2%
6th: Increase by 0.02%
7th: Increase by 0%

And if you look at game 3, here were how McDavid's 2 points in the 3rd increased their odds at winning:

1st: Increase by 3.76%
2nd: Increase by 9.15%

For comparison, a "valuable" goal according to MoneyPuck seems to be adding a win probability of about 20%-25%. All of these points count, so you can't just say they didn't exist, but he's not putting up a lot of impactful points in this series. His overall stat line is good, but how much is he realistically helping the team if he's just putting up a bunch of points when the games are already over?

With Florida, people will now say that Bobrovsky doesn't deserve the Conn Smythe because he got pulled and that hurt his overall stats. But I personally don't think 1 bad game outweighs 3 terrific games, even if the stats suggest that's the case. If Bobrovsky has another strong game in game 5, I don't see how he doesn't win it. Yes, he had a shit game 4, but he has been absolutely massive for them winning the other games in the series.

lol

You're literally the worst poster I've encounted on HF in a long time, and that's saying something.

Two days ago you were on here arguing that McDavid's 2 points last game were meaningless because his team lost.....as if scoring clutch points in the third period trying to mount a comeback is a bad thing. Your argument was "he should score early to ensure a victory"

Today you're changed your tune to "pfft, those early points don't matter, they were going to win anyways"

Even MJ doesn't argue in as bad faith as you do in Crosby threads, and that's saying something.

 

[MOGlLNY]

It’s not nothing and it adds to the greatness but the fact you agree that mcdavid is a better player despite those things proves my point. Mcdavid beats him everywhere else

Sid so far has the better career for me. I know it’s a team sport but it does matter.

McDavid can and likely will pass him. But those moments are the edge, they’re what defines a career. But pound for pound on the ice it’s obvious it’s Connor.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

It's hilarious how this board can go from "McDavid has had a terrible finals" to "McDavid has had a better finals than Crosby ever had" just because McDavid put up some points in a blowout game

MLB has a stat called "win probability added", but we can track that in the NHL on sites like MoneyPuck as well. McDavid had points on the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th goals last night. In terms of win probability added, here's what those looked like:

4th: Increase by 6.5%
5th: Increase by 10.2%
6th: Increase by 0.02%
7th: Increase by 0%

And if you look at game 3, here were how McDavid's 2 points in the 3rd increased their odds at winning:

1st: Increase by 3.76%
2nd: Increase by 9.15%

For comparison, a "valuable" goal according to MoneyPuck seems to be adding a win probability of about 20%-25%. All of these points count, so you can't just say they didn't exist, but he's not putting up a lot of impactful points in this series. His overall stat line is good, but how much is he realistically helping the team if he's just putting up a bunch of points when the games are already over?

With Florida, people will now say that Bobrovsky doesn't deserve the Conn Smythe because he got pulled and that hurt his overall stats. But I personally don't think 1 bad game outweighs 3 terrific games, even if the stats suggest that's the case. If Bobrovsky has another strong game in game 5, I don't see how he doesn't win it. Yes, he had a shit game 4, but he has been absolutely massive for them winning the other games in the series.

It’s actually because he put up 4 points facing elimination in the biggest game of his career, breaking Wayne f***ing Gretzky’s playoff assist record in the process

He has a legit shot at the points record too if the series goes all the way

We all cope with things differently

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

Sid so far has the better career for me. I know it’s a team sport but it does matter.

McDavid can and likely will pass him. But those moments are the edge, they’re what defines a career. But pound for pound on the ice it’s obvious it’s Connor.

Yeah it totally depends on how you define and value accomplishments. I mostly have a problem with people claiming he’s a better player because of these accomplishments. They’re too circumstantial for me.

Golden goal for example you can’t take away from Crosby, it’s my favourite hockey moment of all time. But Mcdavid literally hasn’t had the chance to do anything Olympic wise.

In regards to Stanley cups, I strongly believe Connor already has much stronger runs than crosby in the playoffs. When deciding which player is better I value that higher than the team accomplishment of winning a cup.

Hence “better moments”. No problem in saying crosby has had the greater career but I guess that’s not how I rank players. I’m more of an ability guy.

 

[WalterLundy]

Playoff point leaders and closest non teammate:

1984:
Gretzky: 35
Gillies: 19

1985:
Gretzky: 47
Savard: 29

1988:
Gretzky: 43
Linesman: 25

1991:
Lemieux: 44
Bellows: 29

2009:
Malkin: 36
Zetterberg: 24

2024:
McDavid: 38
Barkov: 21

Only Gretzky has outdone McDavid (so far) by point gap and McDavid actually has the highest percentage margin in history. One of the very best playoff runs we have ever seen by far. If Leach, Hextall and Giguere can win the smythe in a losing effort, so can (arguably) the best non Gretzky playoff performance. He won’t win it but he should. It’s playoff MVP after all.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Good thing you aren't a sports bettor lol


Don't mind him. It was an awful take. The Oilers will be even better next year if we don't win

Oh, it could play out a different way and I'm fine with that, just saying from where I sit.

 

[Empoleon8771]

lol

You're literally the worst poster I've encounted on HF in a long time, and that's saying something.

Two days ago you were on here arguing that McDavid's 2 points last game were meaningless because his team lost.....as if scoring clutch points in the third period trying to mount a comeback is a bad thing. Your argument was "he should score early to ensure a victory"

Today you're changed your tune to "pfft, those early points don't matter, they were going to win anyways"

Even MJ doesn't argue in as bad faith as you do in Crosby threads, and that's saying something.

What? McDavid's first point in game 4 made the score 4-1. He didn't put up any "early points" in that game. The game was basically over after he got an assist on the 5th goal.

That's literally the purpose of me posting the "win probability added" numbers for his points. The points he has been putting up haven't had a tangible impact on the results of the games. In game 3, he put up 2 points after the Oilers were down 3 and they ended up losing anyway. In game 4, he put up 4 points after the Oilers were already up 2 and they ended up winning anyway. That's exactly what the win probability changes are showing with his production, on the goals he's getting points on, he's having a minimal impact on changing the outcomes of the games. My point has been the same for both games.

There is different value in putting up 4 points in a 4-3 game versus putting up 4 points in an 8-1 game. If you can't understand that, I fundamentally question if you understand the sport at all.

Here's another way to put it: if McDavid would have taken his 2 points to make a 6-1 game 8-1 in game 4 and applied them to game 1, 2 or 3, maybe they wouldn't be down 3-1 in the series like they are now.

 

[Soundwave]

The crazy thing is I'm quite certain McDavid has been injured basically all season long (not just a "well everyone is hurt in the playoffs" thing).

He can't shoot anywhere near as well as he was a year ago and his puck control isn't quite as good.

He was hurt in the 4th game of the season, rushed himself back for the outdoor Heritage Classic and basically has been playing with a significant injury ever since then. He's been playing with what is probably a season ending injury but he is just playing through it and will get time to heal in the summer. It just turns out this is the year they end up in the Cup Final.

 

[Dog]

A pissed off McDavid accepting the Conn Smythe while Florida raises the cup be kind of funny to watch.

 

[Hint1k]

the Oilers have faced 3 straight division winners in the playoffs this year

last year Vegas faced 0 division winners

but you wanna talk about Oilers "luck" lol

Unfortunately for you, you are writing to a Tampa fan. If you know recent Tampa history (google 2019) you should know how much I am impressed by someone's regular season success during playoff time:

And every time someone writes me a message that simultaneously contains "regular season success" and "playoff" - I can't stop laughing for like half an hour.

Please pity me, and do not do that again, I can literally die out of laughter.

 

[Albatros]

He's been playing with what is probably a season ending injury

Holy hyperbole.

 

[wetcoast]

Ugh....sorry but there's no way he SHOULD get it in a 5 or 6 game loss.

Why though?

The Conn smythe is for the entire playoffs not just the finals.

BoB or Barkov both have a case for the Cats. McDaid balled out last night. But it was way too late imo. Damage already done.

Sure that's all relevant if you are talking about the SC and it's not like McDavid was playing poorly, the voters were watching him driving play and he was in on 75% of all the Oiler goals in the first 3 games.

If it goes 7 and they lose, I can see a case.


Crazy that the best player in the game will have waited 11 seasons before playing in the olympics.

Yes the Olympic thing is crazy but it's also not a big deal either.

At the end of the day McDavid has the stat line and narrative to winning the conn smythe.

After all he just broke Wayne gretzky's all time single season playoff assist record.

Bob, who is the strongest Panther player in the running has a .909 save %.


Sorry but he'll have to settle with the SC not the Conn Smythe.

 

[wetcoast]

Barkov has been very good this series as well.. there is more to just scoring points .
Unless Bobrovski steals another game I have Barkov ahead of Bob.

1.Barkov
2.Bob
3.McDavid

It's amazing how many posters seem to think that the Conn Smythe is only for the final series and not the entire playoffs or so it seems from their posts.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

If Florida wins the cup somebody on the Panthers should win the Conn Smythe & this is coming from an Oiler fan.
It's not like there is nobody worthy on the Panthers.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

According to the NHL, the Conn Smythe is awarded to: "to the most valuable player for his team in the playoffs"

The award is obviously subjective by its own definition. If the Panthers win in 5, or even 6, I think Bob clearly should win this, as he was the difference (subjective, I know) in at least the first three games. This doesn't diminish an outstanding performance by McDavid. But viewing "valuable" in the context of "playoffs" and ignoring the final outcome doesn't seem to grasp the spirit of this ambiguous, ceremonial award. If it goes 7 and Panthers win, the debate gets much closer. Oilers in seven means McDavid has more hardware for his collection.

Nowhere is it written that each round of the playoffs is equally-weighted. It is somewhat accepted that generally, the voters weigh the combined first three rounds of the playoffs equally with the final round, but of course this is anecdotal. Don't forget that Bobrovsky also beat arguably the best goalie in the game in the conference finals, and Igor wasn't exactly slumping.

If I were voting (and I am not a particular fan of either team), I can't imagine not voting for the hot goalie who led his team to their first ever Cup. I can certainly understand why Oiler fans would be frustrated by this result, but that's the nature of opinions.

 

[bobholly39]

It's amazing how many posters seem to think that the Conn Smythe is only for the final series and not the entire playoffs or so it seems from their posts.

I don't think that's the case, but finals is indeed often a huge influence on conn smythe. You might even say first 3 round count for ~50% and finals ~50%, or somewhere in that vicinity.

For what it's worth - I think going down 0-3 makes it more unlikely for McDavid to win the smythe in a losing cause. He definitely wasn't winning if they were swept, and I still don't think he wins it if they lose in 5. In my opinion - Oilers have to make it to at least game 6 (or 7) for McDavid to win in a losing cause. Obviously - if Oilers win the cup, he's the favorite by far for now too.

 

[Fatass]

Playoff point leaders and closest non teammate:

1984:
Gretzky: 35
Gillies: 19

1985:
Gretzky: 47
Savard: 29

1988:
Gretzky: 43
Linesman: 25

1991:
Lemieux: 44
Bellows: 29

2009:
Malkin: 36
Zetterberg: 24

2024:
McDavid: 38
Barkov: 21

Only Gretzky has outdone McDavid (so far) by point gap and McDavid actually has the highest percentage margin in history. One of the very best playoff runs we have ever seen by far. If Leach, Hextall and Giguere can win the smythe in a losing effort, so can (arguably) the best non Gretzky playoff performance. He won’t win it but he should. It’s playoff MVP after all.

The big difference is each of those players topping the scoring also led their clubs to the Cup. If the series was close there would be a case for McDavid to win the Conn Smythe.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

He absolutely should but who knows what the voters do.

Putting up a historically impressive run and breaking records while none of the Panthers players are even close. .909 Bob and a 21 point Barkov should not win.

 

[paracord]

Playoff point leaders and closest non teammate:

1984:
Gretzky: 35
Gillies: 19

1985:
Gretzky: 47
Savard: 29

1988:
Gretzky: 43
Linesman: 25

1991:
Lemieux: 44
Bellows: 29

2009:
Malkin: 36
Zetterberg: 24

2024:
McDavid: 38
Barkov: 21

Only Gretzky has outdone McDavid (so far) by point gap and McDavid actually has the highest percentage margin in history. One of the very best playoff runs we have ever seen by far. If Leach, Hextall and Giguere can win the smythe in a losing effort, so can (arguably) the best non Gretzky playoff performance. He won’t win it but he should. It’s playoff MVP after all.

Can it really be one of the best playoff runs we've seen so far with only 6 goals scored so far? His first goal in his first ever SCF occurred while being down 0-3 in a blowout?

Hmmm.

 

[5Hollywood5]

It's hilarious how this board can go from "McDavid has had a terrible finals" to "McDavid has had a better finals than Crosby ever had" just because McDavid put up some points in a blowout game

MLB has a stat called "win probability added", but we can track that in the NHL on sites like MoneyPuck as well. McDavid had points on the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th goals last night. In terms of win probability added, here's what those looked like:

4th: Increase by 6.5%
5th: Increase by 10.2%
6th: Increase by 0.02%
7th: Increase by 0%

And if you look at game 3, here were how McDavid's 2 points in the 3rd increased their odds at winning:

1st: Increase by 3.76%
2nd: Increase by 9.15%

For comparison, a "valuable" goal according to MoneyPuck seems to be adding a win probability of about 20%-25%. All of these points count, so you can't just say they didn't exist, but he's not putting up a lot of impactful points in this series. His overall stat line is good, but how much is he realistically helping the team if he's just putting up a bunch of points when the games are already over?

With Florida, people will now say that Bobrovsky doesn't deserve the Conn Smythe because he got pulled and that hurt his overall stats. But I personally don't think 1 bad game outweighs 3 terrific games, even if the stats suggest that's the case. If Bobrovsky has another strong game in game 5, I don't see how he doesn't win it. Yes, he had a shit game 4, but he has been absolutely massive for them winning the other games in the series.

he broke gretzky’s record mate it is what it is

 

[Voight]

You heard here first folks..

Rodrigues>McDavid

Crobsy played absolutely terrible
His first cup win in ‘09. The difference? Malkin and others stepping up and adding secondary scoring and Fleury playing stellar down the stretch. They won in 7 games and Crosby was basically a non factor that last game.

Why doesn’t he deserve the hype? He had a good chance of breaking Gretzkys
Assist playoff record. He’s arguably the best player in the world, he’s going to get a lot of attention.

Crosby and Tyler Kennedy scored the same amount of points that year in the finals.

 

[bucks_oil]

If Florida wins the cup somebody on the Panthers should win the Conn Smythe & this is coming from an Oiler fan.
It's not like there is nobody worthy on the Panthers.

I agree with this... if they win, my vote is Bob or Barkov in that order (but defer to Cats fans who've watched every series, I haven't).

And that would be unfortunate, since McDavid has literally put up a historic performance in this playoffs... objectively, taking a step back, depending on how you view the Conn Smyth, you can absolutely make the case that he should win...

But I'm one of those guys who thinks a player on the winner should get it. Centermen on the losing team don't get the same "Sympathy Vote" that we've seen in the past with the losing goalie (has there ever been a non-goalie win it from the losing squad?). I personally think there should be another trophy for such "honorable mention" players.

Having said all of that... it doesn't matter... Oilers are gonna win heh heh, so this debate is premature.

 

[ManofSteel55]

It has been over 20 years since a player on the losing team won the Conn Smythe (Giguere in 2003 was most recent), and over 40 since a skater (non-goalie) did the same (Reggie Leach in 1976). Breaking the assist record makes it more plausible. I think right now, it depends on how many more games the Oilers can win. I don't expect them to beat Florida in 3 more games, but if McDavid can lead them to game 6 or 7 it's a lot more likely than I thought it would have been before the series started.

 

[Video Nasty]

Can it really be one of the best playoff runs we've seen so far with only 6 goals scored so far? His first goal in his first ever SCF occurred while being down 0-3 in a blowout?

Hmmm.

He’s contributed to over half his team’s production throughout the entire playoffs and is in on 7 of their 12 goals in the Finals. He’s the fresh owner of the most assists in a playoff run and is tied for the 5th most points in a playoff run. It’s also still a work in progress.

The answer is a resounding yes.